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[reilo]

Wait what? Since when is the Ps3 going to sell half of Ps2 :lol

It will probably only do 25 million max! Remember, its doing as well as the GC was doing.

Eh? It's sold what its first year? 5-6mil? The console will be available for at least what? 5 years? That's 25-30mil right there. Do you actually expect the PS3 to sell this lackluster year in and year out?

 

[Innotech]

somehow though I doubt those clouds are made of maple candy.
Unless maple candy is the new term for water vapor.
Then again, this has been a strange year of sorts.

 

[HK-47]

not Jet Force Gemini. NINTENDO AM CRYYYY

or Pokemon Snap

or Hey You Pikachu

Pretty sure all three of those are million sellers

Pokemon Snap at least was a 4 million seller WW

 

[Saitou]

I somehow doubt Sony shareholders and executives will be happy about a userbase decrease in the vincinity of eighty million systems, even if by some godly luck the PS3 turns a profit (hint: don't bet on it).

 

[HK-47]

Eh? It's sold what its first year? 5-6mil? The console will be available for at least what? 5 years? That's 25-30mil right there. Do you actually expect the PS3 to sell this lackluster year in and year out?

You assume sales stay constant YOY

 

[davepoobond]

I somehow doubt Sony shareholders and executives will be happy about a userbase decrease in the vincinity of eighty million systems, even if by some godly luck the PS3 turns a profit (hint: don't bet on it).

shareholders don't exactly have a magic button that says "stop playstation."

if they're not happy they sell off their shares.

Pretty sure all three of those are million sellers

Pokemon Snap at least was a 4 million seller WW

i'm just bitter that Pokemon Snap wasn't an actual pokemon game. ::sigh::



and LMAO at people making fun of the "imo" part of my post.

 

[Innotech]

Eh? It's sold what its first year? 5-6mil? The console will be available for at least what? 5 years? That's 25-30mil right there. Do you actually expect the PS3 to sell this lackluster year in and year out?

the main problem here is that Sony is at both a hardware and software disadvantage. they are going toe to toe with the giant that is MS and xbox360 had a headstart much like Ps2 that has put it ahead in both mindshare and userbase, and Ps3 just isnt compellingly different enough for most people that this status quo will change drastically. The Wii, well its on its own insane path, eclipsing xbox sales in a year and becoming #1 seemingly without effort. It sells on the strength of first party and doesnt really seem to require much help otherwise, though it wouldnt hurt to have 3rd party support either.

So at one end you have the xbox360. more popular, about equal in ability (minus the multimedia), gigantic software selection, better word of mouth, better funding, bigger games (Halo 3 is fucking ginormous). And on the other end the Wii. Unique, simple, silly, and a lot of fun for not a lot of money. And ridiculously popular. Ps3 is being squeezed to death in the middle.

 

[D.Lo]

failure is not and should not be measured by how much a decrease there is in install base from one console to the next. Just because it doesn't do as well as the one before it it doesn't make it a failure.

it has to be compared to the other consoles in its generation, as well as the "losers" of the last generation.

if the PS3 ends up getting an install base that is XBOX+GC but its still less than Wii and 360...what does that make it?

Wow, you are really grasping. So the only way Sony could possibly 'fail' is if they lost 80% of their marketshare? But they still did fantastic if they only lost 70% of their marketshare? And right now it looks extremely unlikely the PS3 will outsell XBOX+GC combined.

If the sales end up Wii/360/PS3 100M/50M/45M (as you're optimistically hypothesising), PS3 would have 23% marketshare, a drop of 70% from their 75% marketshare last gen, and a sales drop of 75 million consoles.

SNES Mega Drive marketshare was about 60/40, and as of December 2000 (N64's death), based on hardware shipment figures N64/PS1 marketshare was about 70/30. A drop of 50% marketshare and a sales drop of only 17 million consoles.

Even if the PS3 sells 45 million as you hope, it is still a much, much bigger drop in both marketshare and absolute sales then the N64 was for Nintendo.

 

[reilo]

You assume sales stay constant YOY

You assume that the PS3 will actually sell LESS in subsequent years than it has its first year? Does anyone actually think that?

 

[davepoobond]

Wow, you are really grasping. So the only way Sony could possibly 'fail' is if they lost 80% of their marketshare? But they still did fantastic if they only lost 70% of their marketshare? And right now it looks extremely unlikely the PS3 will outsell XBOX+GC combined.

that would be Sony losing marketshare from last generation to this. PS3 itself wouldn't be a failure...it would be Sony (more specifically SCE) who misjudged the market, really.

If the sales end up Wii/360/PS3 100M/50M/45M (as you're optimistically hypothesising), PS3 would have 23% marketshare, a drop of 70% from their 75% marketshare last gen, and a sales drop of 75 million consoles.

SNES Mega Drive marketshare was about 60/40, and as of December 2000 (N64's death), based on hardware shipment figures N64/PS1 marketshare was about 70/30. A drop of 50% marketshare and a sales drop of only 17 million consoles.

Even if the PS3 sells 45 million as you hope, it is still a much, much bigger drop in both marketshare and absolute sales then the N64 was for Nintendo.

a rising tide lifts all boats

 

[Lobster]

Eh? It's sold what its first year? 5-6mil? The console will be available for at least what? 5 years? That's 25-30mil right there. Do you actually expect the PS3 to sell this lackluster year in and year out?

The GC didn't do so bad in its first year either. Infact in NA, GC in its first 10 months did 2.2 million while the Ps3 only did 1.8million.

Source:NPD via GamePro

I just need data from other regions though to compare WW.

 

[Provider]

Famitsu data for the week ending on december 23 (so i'm really in topic!!!)


2007/12/17 - 12/23

01. (DS / S-E) Final Fantasy IV - 308.794 / 308.794
02. (DS / Nintendo) Mario Party 8 - 307.901 / 1.070.481
03. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Fit - 210.406 / 737.475
04. (Wii / Nintendo) Super Mario Galaxy - 109.029 / 680.165
05. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Sports - 108.629 / 2.370.673
06. (DS / S-E) Dragon Quest IV - 108.352 / 962.776
07. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Play - 104.635 / 1.918.814
08. (Wii / Nintendo) Mario & Sonic at Olympic Games - 100.433 / 307.198
09. (DS / BandaiNamco) Doraemon Baseball: Dramatic Stadium - 96.454 / 96.454
10. (PS2 / BandaiNamco) Naruto Shuuppuden: Narutimate Accel 2 - 94.330 / 94.330
11. (DS / Pokemon) Pokemon Mistery Dungeon Darkness/Time - 83.454 / 1.218.261
12. (DS / Level 5) Prof. Layton and the Devil's Box - 68.289 / 550.454
13. (Wii / Nintendo) Mario Party 8 - 60.320 / 1.007.899
14. (DS / Nintendo) Mario Kart DS - 53.158 / 2.660.373
15. (DS / Nintendo) Kousoku Card Battle: Card Hero - 49.163 / 49.163
16. (DS / Capcom) Mega Man Star Force 2: Berserk x Shinobi/Dinosaur - 47.056 / 203.285
17. (DS / Konami) Power Pro Pocket 10 - 46.891 / 128.832
18. (PS2 / Alchemist) Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Matsuri - 42.385 / 42.385
19. (PS2 / Konami) Winning Eleven 2008 - 39.041 / 518.742
20. (PS2 / Konami) Power Pro Baseball 14 Ketteiban - 37.480 / 37.480


Mario Party 8 and DS became million sellers in the same week, DQIV non game status is around the corner, WE 2008 (PS2) is over half million, not bad at all.
No PSP (as usual) and no PS3 games on top20, Sony should be worried... (ok, ok, PSP is considered as a multimedia device more than a game system for japanese people bla bla bla bla....)

Thanks for the top.

I think the first Mario Party (#2) is actually MP DS.

Wii Fit could be over a million on the next chart.

 

[Jokeropia]

N64 sold more hardware and more software than PS3 and made a huge profit for Nintendo as opposed to the gargantuan losses Sony are eating on the PS3.

well the wii already has the #2 highest ranked videogame ever in Super Mario Galaxy. Id say thats pretty good quality.

Wii is also the only system that can play #1, #2 and #3.

if the PS3 ends up getting an install base that is XBOX+GC but its still less than Wii and 360...what does that make it?

It needs to pick up the pace to sell that much since it's tracking behind both those systems individually at the moment.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Eh? It's sold what its first year? 5-6mil? The console will be available for at least what? 5 years? That's 25-30mil right there. Do you actually expect the PS3 to sell this lackluster year in and year out?

That's nice but it's still selling worse than the Gamecube. It's has the price disadvantage, worse lineup and no real advantage over it's competitors. So, yeah, it'll still sell poorly.

 

[felipeko]

I bet Nintendo could've sold more 10 million of N64 consoles if they were willing to lose $2 billion in the process.

 

[davepoobond]

It needs to pick up the pace to sell that much since it's tracking behind both those systems individually at the moment.

i was using that example more to illustrate a point.

by the way i'm not even predicting PS3 will do 45 or 50 million or whatever.

honestly i really have no clue, but if i had to make a conservative guess, it would be like 35 million worldwide, with a higher end of 45 million for my guess.

 

[HK-47]

i'm just bitter that Pokemon Snap wasn't an actual pokemon game. ::sigh::

I think we are all bitter about that...but I'd think your chargin would be forwarded at the Stadium series, and not Snap, which executed its concept quite nicely

 

[Thunder Monkey]

That's nice but it's still selling worse than the Gamecube. It's has the price disadvantage, worse lineup and no real advantage over it's competitors. So, yeah, it'll still sell poorly.

Spring 08 will give us a better understanding on where PS3 demand sits.

I don't expect much. To be honest, I expect 2008 to be nearly as dreadful for the PS3 as 2007 was. Price was a problem that should have been fixed a few months after release, not nearly a year later.

If sales don't pick up in a big way through summer '08 I don't think the platform will surpass the GCN by much. Or even sell under it.

 

[HK-47]

Thanks for the top.

I think the first Mario Party (#2) is actually MP DS.

Wii Fit could be over a million on the next chart.

It is...MP DS that is

 

[yankeeforever2]

So any chance at getting the numbers tonight or do we have to wait till next week?

 

[HK-47]

Spring 08 will give us a better understanding on where PS3 demand sits.

I don't expect much. To be honest, I expect 2008 to be nearly as dreadful for the PS3 as 2007 was. Price was a problem that should have been fixed a few months after release, not nearly a year later.

If sales don't pick up in a big way through summer '08 I don't think the platform will surpass the GCN by much. Or even sell under it.

Nah, Playstation is too strong in Europe to fall that far...It'll beat the GC for sure

 

[Lobster]

So any chance at getting the numbers tonight or do we have to wait till next week?

I heard that the earliest is tonight.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Nah, Playstation is too strong in Europe to fall that far...It'll beat the GC for sure

I'm not too sure.

They've got to hit in excess of 12 million units in Europe, to offset what I expect to be unbelievably low American and Japanese numbers. At it's current pace in Japan it won't even clear the GCN, and in America it seems like it'll undershoot the GCN by millions.

At most I can see them hitting 30 million units. That's "if" it hits GCN numbers in America, and hits the 10-15 million unit mark in Europe. Japan I'd wager is already a lost cause. 3.5 million units tops.

 

[reilo]

I'm not too sure.

They've got to hit in excess of 12 million units in Europe, to offset what I expect to be unbelievably low American and Japanese numbers. At it's current pace in Japan it won't even clear the GCN, and in America it seems like it'll undershoot the GCN by millions.

At most I can see them hitting 30 million units. That's "if" it hits GCN numbers in America, and hits the 10-15 million unit mark in Europe. Japan I'd wager is already a lost cause. 3.5 million units tops.

Erm, you do realize PS3 sold 1.6mil in its first what? 55weeks in Japan? You are saying, between now and until the end of the consoles life cycle [let's put it at a modest 5 years total, so 4 years left], it's gonna sell less than 500k/yr?

Whoa man.

 

[davepoobond]

I think we are all bitter about that...but I'd think your chargin would be forwarded at the Stadium series, and not Snap, which executed its concept quite nicely

my chagrin is actually directed at Pokemon Snap because i never got Stadium, only Snap

 

[HK-47]

my chagrin is actually directed at Pokemon Snap because i never got Stadium, only Snap

you werent missing anything

 

[Lobster]

Erm, you do realize PS3 sold 1.6mil in its first what? 55weeks in Japan? You are saying, between now and until the end of the consoles life cycle [let's put it at a modest 5 years total, so 4 years left], it's gonna sell less than 500k/yr?

Whoa man.

Well depends.

What did GC do in its first year in Japan?

 

[reilo]

Well depends.

What did GC do in its first year in Japan?

I'm probably doing something wrong while using JJ Slone's line-graph generator, but here it says around 860K by September 14th, 2002 - one year after its release in Japan.

I think that's wrong though :lol

Someone help me out.

EDIT:

I think I got it. Through September 14th, 2002, the GC sold 1.413mil according to Famitsu data.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I'm probably doing something wrong while using JJ Slone's line-graph generator, but here it says around 860K by September 14th, 2002 - one year after its release in Japan.

I think that's wrong though :lol

Someone help me out.

Use Famitsu, not Media Create. Media Create data doesn't go back far enough.

Well depends.

What did GC do in its first year in Japan?

The PS3 is virtually neck and neck with the GCN at the respective point in their lifespans in Japan. I think after one year, the GCN was 1.57 million and the PS3 was ~1.4 million.

 

[Oblivion]

PS3 is a far cry from being the worst failure in history. N64 was worse off imo, and that wasn't even that bad...

How does that work? N64 sold only 15 million less than SNES, had unbelievable first party sales, and made profit on every console sold (if not in the beginning, then at least very shortly after, iirc).

The PS3 meanwhile, will probably end up 30 million by the end of its life (just going by the year long trend), a drop of about 70 million from PS2, has a bunch of first party bombs (yes with a few exceptions), and Sony's bleeding like crazy for every unit.

Now, of course, just selling less than the previous console is not necessarily grounds for failure (afterall, SNES isn't considered a failure), but I'm just trying to figure out how PS3 was better off in any metric. A more appropriate comparison would be Gamecube, but even then...

And there are people that think PS3 will go on to sell 60 million even? Seriously now?

 

[Souldriver]

Reilo, a characteristic of a failing console is that it actually goes downwards from it's launch on. In the beginning it sells ok (fresh start, existing fanbase buys the console, some third party support because it might be a hit, ...) but then it slows down quickly because third parties abandom ship and the console dies fairly quick (1 to 2 years quicker than the succesful competitor).

So if it actually keeps going at the pace of the Gamecube a 25 million total is not completely ridiculous to estimate.


BUT, luckily PS3 will always get games because of the 360 (multiplatform) and will sell better than the GC because of Europe where Sony is doing decent. Imo off course.

 

[diddlyD]

And there are people that think PS3 will go on to sell 60 million even? Seriously now?

depending on how the hi-def format war goes, i think it could hit 60 mil by around 2011, yeah. then if it really does last until 2014 or longer, who knows how many they might sell.

of course, if things go terribly from here on out, they might kill it really fast like sega did and it will never see 20 mil.

that's the thing about all you guys and your predictions. many things can happen. its more like a "this is what i want to happen" kind of thing.

 

[Oblivion]

that's the thing about all you guys and your predictions. many things can happen. its more like a "this is what i want to happen" kind of thing.

I certainly don't want Sony to erase the PS3 (I will be getting one eventually, afterall), it's just that when making predictions, it's preferable to stay in the bounds of reason. Blu Ray could take off, with MGS4 and LBP being this gen's GTA and Sony might end up making a complete turnaround. Of course, while possible, it's a lot harder for someone to believe that, rather than making an educated guess based on a year of sub-GC level performance.

 

[Paracelsus]

some third party support because it might be a hit

Wasn' t that one of the PS3 main problems during the first year, as in the massive lack of third party support?

 

[Miniboss1232]

depending on how the hi-def format war goes, i think it could hit 60 mil by around 2011, yeah. then if it really does last until 2014 or longer, who knows how many they might sell.

of course, if things go terribly from here on out, they might kill it really fast like sega did and it will never see 20 mil.

that's the thing about all you guys and your predictions. many things can happen. its more like a "this is what i want to happen" kind of thing.

I don't think enough people care about the hi-def wars to really affect anything. At least at this point in time. So far, Blu-Ray hasn't seemed to make a difference for the PS3, and if it has, what does that say about the health of the gaming side of the PS3? I'm not sure Sony wants another PSP software black-hole type situation on their hands.

And no, I don't want a console I spent good money on to die. I do, however, enjoy a good discussion on trends, analysis of sales figures, and the overall health and history of the gaming industry. If I'm wrong in my predictions, then I'll be the first to eat crow.

 

[Redd]

my chagrin is actually directed at Pokemon Snap because i never got Stadium, only Snap

What's with all the hate about Snape that was a great game for what it was. I want a Snap 2 in fact. Cover all of Johto and......I don't know the rest of the regions and make it way longer.

 

[donny2112]

2007/12/17 - 12/23

01. (DS / S-E) Final Fantasy IV - 308.794 / 308.794
02. (DS / Nintendo) Mario Party DS - 307.901 / 1.070.481
03. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Fit - 210.406 / 737.475
04. (Wii / Nintendo) Super Mario Galaxy - 109.029 / 680.165
05. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Sports - 108.629 / 2.370.673
06. (DS / S-E) Dragon Quest IV - 108.352 / 962.776
07. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Play - 104.635 / 1.918.814
08. (Wii / Nintendo) Mario & Sonic at Olympic Games - 100.433 / 307.198
09. (DS / BandaiNamco) Doraemon Baseball: Dramatic Stadium - 96.454 / 96.454
10. (PS2 / BandaiNamco) Naruto Shuuppuden: Narutimate Accel 2 - 94.330 / 94.330
11. (DS / Pokemon) Pokemon Mistery Dungeon Darkness/Time - 83.454 / 1.218.261
12. (DS / Level 5) Prof. Layton and the Devil's Box - 68.289 / 550.454
13. (Wii / Nintendo) Mario Party 8 - 60.320 / 1.007.899
14. (DS / Nintendo) Mario Kart DS - 53.158 / 2.660.373
15. (DS / Nintendo) Kousoku Card Battle: Card Hero - 49.163 / 49.163
16. (DS / Capcom) Mega Man Star Force 2: Berserk x Shinobi/Dinosaur - 47.056 / 203.285
17. (DS / Konami) Power Pro Pocket 10 - 46.891 / 128.832
18. (PS2 / Alchemist) Higurashi no Naku Koro ni Matsuri - 42.385 / 42.385
19. (PS2 / Konami) Winning Eleven 2008 - 39.041 / 518.742
20. (PS2 / Konami) Power Pro Baseball 14 Ketteiban - 37.480 / 37.480

21-30 and the new releases from outside the Top 30 from last week's rounded numbers and sinobi. Sinobi numbers are marked, as they aren't as precise as the normal rounded numbers.


21. NDS Taiko Drum Master 37000 / 261000
22. NDS New Super Mario Bros. 35000 / 4967000
23. NDS (sinobi) Dinosaur King - 7 Pieces 34000 / 130000
24. NDS (sinobi) Tamagotchi no Puchi Puchi Omisecchi: Mina San Kyu 33000 / 195000
25. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 32000 / 1452000
26. PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue 29000 / 136000
27. NDS (sinobi) Kirarin Revolution Tsukutte Misechao! Kime*Kira Stage 25000 / 45000
28. NDS Wantame Music Channel: Doko Demo Style 24000 / 92000
29. NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World 24000 / 4495000
30. NDS Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 23000 / 5382000


*. PS3 Time Crisis 4 20000 / NEW
*. PSP Hajime no Ippo Portable: Victorious Spirits 16000 / NEW
*. PSP Patapon 16000 / NEW
*. NDS Lost in Blue 3 14000 / NEW
*. WII Jikkyou Power Pro Baseball Wii Ketteiban 11000 / NEW
*. PS3 Medal of Honor: Airborne 7900 / NEW
*. PS2 Myself; Yourself 7700 / NEW
*. PS3 FIFA Soccer 08 4900 / NEW
*. PS2 Pia Carrot e Youkoso!! G.O. Summer Fair 4000 / NEW
*. PSP Sora no Kiseki Material Collection Portable 3600 / NEW
*. NDS Pinky Street Kira Kira * Music Night 3200 / NEW
*. PSP Sora no Kiseki FC&SC Kanzenban 3100 / NEW
*. WII FIFA Soccer 08 2500 / NEW
*. 360 FIFA Soccer 08 2400 / NEW

No PSP (as usual) and no PS3 games on top20, Sony should be worried... (ok, ok, PSP is considered as a multimedia device more than a game system for japanese people bla bla bla bla....)

One of each in 21-30.

I think its about time for a December NPD prediction thread *wink wink*

Both hardware and software should go up sometime tomorrow.

Sorry i'm going offtopic but does anyone know where i can get really old Media Create or Famitsu numbers? I'm looking for the Dreamcast launch week.

Top 30
#523 is the launch week

N64 sold more hardware and more software than PS3 and made a huge profit for Nintendo as opposed to the gargantuan losses Sony are eating on the PS3.

Exactly. Saying the N64 was more of a failure than the PS3 is having your entire body buried in the sand and not just your head.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I'm probably doing something wrong while using JJ Slone's line-graph generator, but here it says around 860K by September 14th, 2002 - one year after its release in Japan.

I think that's wrong though :lol

Someone help me out.

EDIT:

I think I got it. Through September 14th, 2002, the GC sold 1.413mil according to Famitsu data.

And the PS3 is tracking along it.

Given Media-Create sales it's about 6 weeks behind the GCN.

Either way, you're not looking at a substantial Japanese userbase. 4 million units at most. The GCN never had the big games that the PS3 already has, and they've done little to push the PS3 ahead.

If FFXIII doesn't give it a substantial push over the GCN, then I'd doubt anything will.

 

[Jokeropia]

I think I got it. Through September 14th, 2002, the GC sold 1.413mil according to Famitsu data.

1,564,954, actually.

Wii vs. PS2 vs. GC vs. PS3, first year.

 

[justchris]

I'm not expecting any spectacular turnaround for the PS3, but I do think it'll do better than the GC, and probably at least even with, if not better than the n64.

Part of this is because of the PS2. The PS2 is still a viable format, and as long as that remains true, it's hard to predict exactly where this generation will go (except to say that the Wii will maintain a commanding lead). The good news is that this likely means an overall expansion of the gaming market as a whole, so everybody wins...sorta.

 

[papelnabangka]

You assume that the PS3 will actually sell LESS in subsequent years than it has its first year? Does anyone actually think that?

Didn't the GC do that?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Didn't the GC do that?

Aye.

Successful systems tend to speed up, failing systems tend to slow down.

 

[ComputerNerd]

where are this week's numbers?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

where are this week's numbers?

Written on a sheet of looseleaf, cleverly hidden under the heaviest object in your home. You know, that one you can't lift safely by yourself? Go check.

 

[ComputerNerd]

Written on a sheet of looseleaf, cleverly hidden under the heaviest object in your home. You know, that one you can't lift safely by yourself? Go check.

It's hidden under me?

*lifts ass cheek*

Ah, there it is!

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

It's hidden under me?

*lifts ass cheek*

Ah, there it is!

Many bothans died to give you that information

 

[ComputerNerd]

Many bothans died to give you that information

And what good information it was. Dreamcast 2 sold 739K!

 

[Meier]

I can't believe we still don't have some estimates. This blows!

 

[papelnabangka]

I'm not expecting any spectacular turnaround for the PS3, but I do think it'll do better than the GC, and probably at least even with, if not better than the n64.

Part of this is because of the PS2. The PS2 is still a viable format, and as long as that remains true, it's hard to predict exactly where this generation will go (except to say that the Wii will maintain a commanding lead). The good news is that this likely means an overall expansion of the gaming market as a whole, so everybody wins...sorta.

I agree, even with the catastrophic failure, the PS3 is still a Playstation by name and the brand still carries alot, if not a diminished clout, the same way the Nintendo brand still carrying alot of clout back then despite floundering like a fish out of water.

 

[Sviatoslav]

Aye.

Successful systems tend to speed up, failing systems tend to slow down.

And the 360 is such a huge failure that those rules don't apply to it and its sales went up too. :lol