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Media Create Sales 3/5 - 3/11

Evlar

Banned
Oblivion said:
When does Super Paper Mario launch?
April 22.

Assuming they are actually stockpiling... Let's say they are holding back 30,000 units a week (that seems about right, this week would have been at 74,000, last week in the mid-80s.) Let's also say they started the stockpiling in earnest just last week (meaning the week ending March 4). That gives us eight total weeks of stockpiling before the release of SPM.

If they did that, they would have 240,000 units stockpiled + the normal ~75,000 weekly shipment, for a total of 315,000 units available the week of SPM launch.

OR they could be holding them back for Golden Week, a week later, meaning 345,000 units available the week of April 29. Or some combination of the above.

None of this includes additional production capacity that's supposedly coming online around April. It also doesn't include the possibility that the units are being sent to NA and Europe instead.
 
schuelma said:
So is anyone worried that Wii demand is dying down or are we all convinced N is just hoarding units?

Both hoarding and redistributing to PAL and NTSC-US regions. I think NoJ is comfortable with the lead in Japan and probably thought its time that both NA and the much neglected EU region gets their fair share.

The demand is there for bothy regions, if not more so than Japan as a whole. Japan was just really critical to their success, I would think since it is A) their home turf and B) important developers are Japanese. I would bet that they probably got deals and offers from these third party developers to commit to the Wii after crushing the PS3.
 

Thraktor

Member
The Sphinx said:
Thinking aloud here...

There are three types of Wii Sports purchases. Type A is Wii Sports + Wii purchased simultaneously. Type B is Wii Sports purchased AFTER a Wii (someone buys a Wii and some other game like Zelda, finishes it, then comes back to the store and buys Wii Sports). Type C is normally the rarest kind... purchasing a game BEFORE you buy the system. Type C only occurs when a console is supply-constrained.

The attach rate for Type A (simultaneous purchases) probably remains about the same week-for-week, since Wii Sports is the killer app for the system and the system's been supply constrained since launch. There is a pool of people who want a Wii, a fairly constant percentage of them want it for Wii Sports, and a representative portion of that group scores each week. So Type A purchases rise and fall as console sales rise and fall.

Type B (late purchases) are harder to predict but they probably also follow the sales of the console somewhat... just lagging behind a few weeks. In other words, Type B purchases are driven by people who pick Wii Sports as a second of third game rather than first, and the purchase is made after the most preferred games are finished.

Which leaves Type C (early purchases). The number of these purchases are INVERSELY related to console sales ONLY IF THE CONSOLE IS CONSTRAINED. The fewer consoles that are available, the more frustrated purchasers, and the more people who will say "Since I have the cash I'll just go ahead and buy Wii Sports today and get the system when I can find it in a store." They are an artifact of supply constraint, they completely vanish when the system is sitting on the shelf. And I think they are the best way to explain how attach rate for the killer app jumps when the console sales fall.

I'm going to have to disagree on a few points here. First off, this isn't a huge jump in attach rate for Wii Sports. It's quite a bit over the past few weeks, alright, but still hovering around the 66% LTD attach rate, as you can see below:

wiisportsattach11_03.png


Second, your "Type A" buyers, as you rightly state, constitute the majority of people who pick up the game, hence the fairly steady weekly attach rate for the game. However, I'm going to have the say that the "Type B" purchasers are the ones who are causing the attach rate to be increased on slow hardware weeks. A 66% attach rate for this week's hardware sales would have been 29,367, meaning that there were 5,931 more copies of the game sold than would be accounted for by the usual steady rate of being bought alongside consoles. Prior to this week, there were 592,843 people who owned a Wii in Japan but not Wii Sports. I really don't think it's at all out of the ordinary to presume that 1% of people who didn't already have the game decided to get it this week. It's also worth noting that weeks with high attach rates for the game have a tendency to come just after periods of high hardware sales, not before.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
ComputerNerd said:
Can anyone in Japan actually confirm that Wii's can't be found?

I think earlier in the thread there were reports from Japan that it was still sold out.
 
Wii's worst week yet... but it's still higher than what GCN did in the equivalent week in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 combined (31K by Famitsu).

PS3 vs Wii: Though Wii dropped, since PS3 did too, Wii actually got a slightly bigger chunk of PS3/Wii sales than last week (58.1% instead of 56.9%). If Wii stops selling and PS3 continues at this rate it catches up in 31.6 weeks (October 18, 2007). If the flip occurs, 82.0 weeks (October 5, 2008). Thanks to these closer weeks, PS3's share of lifetime PS3/Wii sales has slightly improved in the last two weeks, from 28.9% to 29.5% to 29.9% this week.

Wii comparisons: At 15 weeks, Wii is where GameCube was at 64.5 weeks (December 4, 2002), where DS was at 9.8 weeks (February 4, 2005), and where PS2 was at 13.7 weeks (June 1, 2000). Thanks to the last few smaller weeks, Wii is losing some ground to PS2.

PS3 comparisons: At 18 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 1.8 weeks (March 10, 2000), where PSP was at 8.1 weeks (January 30, 2005), where GCN was at 14.8 weeks (December 21, 2001), and where Wii was at 3.8 weeks (December 22, 2006).

DS vs PS2: Repeating this week's numbers, they meet up February 28, 2008 at 21.1 million units apiece.

The last few weeks have been pretty good to Sony. They're still not doing quite as well as in 2005, but they're getting close.


Pie chart for the year so far.
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
I think earlier in the thread there were reports from Japan that it was still sold out.

cosigned

also - my DS is on the blink and i need a new one - i've been unable to replace it in the last 3-4 weeks.
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
ComputerNerd said:
Can anyone in Japan actually confirm that Wii's can't be found?
We have a ton of Japanese GAFFERS on the board that would tell us if Wii is no longer sold out.
 
DCharlie said:
cosigned

also - my DS is on the blink and i need a new one - i've been unable to replace it in the last 3-4 weeks.

Dang.

On an unrelated note, does anyone have the totals for Pokemon DP? Has it outsold RS yet?
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Zelda's out of the TOP 50?!

Bugger man, what's wrong with Japan.
I wonder if Nintendo considers the game to be a partial failure since it's doing so poorly in hometown...

FFIII off it too, I wonder if it even hit 1 mil this week :lol
 
crazy world. PS3 is doing "less bad" in japan than USA.

upcoming is: hot shots golf 5, but other than that...

wasn´t WE11 suposed to hit in mid 2007?

what´s the status of that franchise on PS3?
 

Vinnk

Member
"Vinnk's Village" Anecdotal Report (as of 2 days ago)\

Nintendo Wii

Wanpaku (chain store) Sold Out
Best Denki Sold Out
Book Net: 1 used (But selling for 5000 yen more than a new one)
Famicom Dojo: 1 in store, but reserved.
Jusco (department store) Sold Out
YouMe Town (Department store) Sold Out
Mr. Max (Discount store): 1 (and it was bought by my friend after I called him)
 

Jammy

Banned
seattle6418 said:
crazy world. PS3 is doing "less bad" in japan than USA.

upcoming is: hot shots golf 5, but other than that...

wasn´t WE11 suposed to hit in mid 2007?

what´s the status of that franchise on PS3?

Hot Shots Golf 5 is coming in the summer. It's most likely going to be a case of "too-little-too-late," especially with the Wii's line-up and ability to get releases only a couple months after the games are even announced.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
This Week Sales:
mc-sales-070305.jpg


Since 11/27/07 - 15 total weeks:
360 - Following the trend: 3-4k. Next Gen Avg = 10,627. Post Holiday Avg = 5,610.
Wii - Even further below expectations than the previous week. New trend appearing: 50-65k. Next Gen Avg = 117,847. Post Holiday Avg = 72,526.
PS3 - Slightly higher than expectations. Establishing new trend: 25-33k. Next Gen Avg = 39,733. Post Holiday Avg = 24,988.

mc-LTDs-15.jpg


Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.

● The PS3 improving its post-holiday weekly average, but just barely. Its two "big" games of the year in Japan have increased sales by a total of +4k, +22k, and +8k (this week) over the weekly trend (25k). While it isn't fair to use NPD as an influence in these comments, it's fairly obvious that the problems the PS3 is having in Japan aren't because of culture, the size of their apartments, or no want of HD: it has to be the price. It's just too much money. While I am cautious on the PS3, I am still raising the weekly expected average from 22-28k up to 25-33k for the next 4 weeks.

● The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments. Pretty bad week as it appears on the surface, but it turns out that last week was actually worse in 1v1 vs. the PS3. Keen eyes will notice some upcoming titles that Nintendo may be holding some units back for, as well as acknowledging increased shipments to other territories (US & EU/UK/AUS). While I am bullish on the Wii sales, I have to lower the expected average (in JPN) from 60-80k down to 50-70k for the next 4 weeks, with the expectation that Nintendo will drop a 200k bomb in the near near future (3rd week of April?).

Expectations for 03/05-03/12
360 - 3.5k
Wii - 65k <--- Production capacity finally up this week?
PS3 - 29k <--- Up, but up from bad is still bad.

This Week's Market Share:
mc-marketshare-070305.jpg


Market Share Week-to-Week
Code:
[B][U]Date____               360             Wii             PS3[/U][/B]
11/27-12/03:            25%             49%             26%
12/04-12/10:            24%             49%             27%
12/11-12/17:            21%             50%             29%
12/18-12/24:            17%             57%             26%
12/25-12/31:            16%             56%             28%
01/01-01/07:            15%             58%             27%
01/08-01/14:            14%             59%             27%
01/15-01/21:            14%             60%             26%
01/22-01/28:            13%             60%             26%
01/29-02/04:            13%             61%             26%
02/05-02/11:            13%             61%             26%
02/12-02/18:            13%             62%             26%
02/19-02/25:            12%             62%             25%
03/26-03/04:            12%             62%             26%
03/05-03/11:            12%             62%             26%

Significant Notes:
1. Wii had currently has a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 after 15 weeks.
2. The Wii has never sold less than 44k in one week.
3. The PS3 just had its 2ND BEST WEEK THIS YEAR with 33k units sold.
4. The Wii just had its WORST WEEK EVER with 44k units sold.
5. The Wii only sold 1.39x the PS3 this week, but has almost 3x LTD.
6. The 360 just had its worst week since the new generation began, selling less than 20x what the Wii sold in one week (in its worst week ever).

PL MC POST HISTORY
Click for accountability!
01/15-01/21
01/22-01/28
01/29-02/04
02/05-02/11
02/12-02/18
02/19-02/25
02/26-03/04
 

SRG01

Member
Er. Why does the Wii graph start to look like a logarithmic curve? That's not good... (indicator of carrying capacity)
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
SRG01 said:
Er. Why does the Wii graph start to look like a logarithmic curve? That's not good... (indicator of carrying capacity)

Two weeks with fewer units than the week previous will do that. A couple more weeks from now and you'll swear it is a cubic.
 

creamsugar

Member
MC 3/5 ~ 3/11

12&#12288;DS&#12288;ACWW&#12288;17000&#12288;4055000
21&#12288;DS&#12288;HarvestMoon&#12288;11000&#12288;174000&#12288;
22&#12288;DS&#12288;PokemonD&#12288;11000&#12288;2623000&#12288;
23&#12288;Wii&#12288;FE&#12288;10000&#12288;104000&#12288;
24&#12288;DS&#12288;Hotel Dusk: Room 215&#12288;10000&#12288;165000&#12288;
35&#12288;DS&#12288;LoveBerry&#12288;7000&#12288;910000&#12288;
38&#12288;Wii&#12288;Naruto&#12288;6400&#12288;64000&#12288;
41&#12288;DS&#12288;&#25945;&#32946;&#12288;6000&#12288;154000&#12288;
51&#12288;Wii&#12288;Zelda&#12288;5300&#12288;414000&#12288;
52&#12288;DS&#12288;&#20154;&#21147;&#12288;5200&#12288;5200&#12288;
58&#12288;PSP&#12288;MHPBest&#12288;3700&#12288;255000&#12288;
62&#12288;DS&#12288;FF3&#12288;3000&#12288;1002000&#12288;
 

SRG01

Member
PantherLotus said:
Two weeks with fewer units than the week previous will do that. A couple more weeks from now and you'll swear it is a cubic.

:lol

Sorry, that was the curve-fitting engineer inside of me speaking up there. :lol
 
Honestly there's no reason 360 should be doing that bad in Japan. It technically has good games out for it that Japanese hardcore gamers would like to play (Blue Dragon, Idolmaster, etc). I think the issue is that Microsoft has been half assed about everything, they have half assed portion of hardcore games and half assed amounts of serious attempts at killer games like Blue Dragon. They need to go in one direction or the other full steam. Mega Drive, Saturn and PC Engine did well in Japan but not being mainstream, by pandering to the hardcore and hentai and fighter and shooter fans.

If it was truly the culture simply rejecting a western console then it would be easier to accept (that does have some % to do with it, but not the biggest reason). Unfortunately it's execution and now the perception is possibly too f'd up for them to change it in one way or another. The problem is that many devs that would have desperately jumped on 360 bandwagon now have an "out" with the Wii (look at Koei making a Wii exclusive game), and if PS3 does not take off like a rocket then many devs will go out of business for lack of a platform to release the type of games they like on (or be like Treasure and Capcom and just start ignoring the Japanese market for their blockbusters).
 

apujanata

Member
Vinnk said:
"Vinnk's Village" Anecdotal Report (as of 2 days ago)\

Nintendo Wii

Wanpaku (chain store) Sold Out
Best Denki Sold Out
Book Net: 1 used (But selling for 5000 yen more than a new one)
Famicom Dojo: 1 in store, but reserved.
Jusco (department store) Sold Out
YouMe Town (Department store) Sold Out
Mr. Max (Discount store): 1 (and it was bought by my friend after I called him)

Very nice report, Vinnk. You should made this a weekly feature, for PS3, Wii and DSL. Probably better if you mention which town in Japan you are reporting this from. :)
 

Vinnk

Member
apujanata said:
Very nice report, Vinnk. You should made this a weekly feature, for PS3, Wii and DSL. Probably better if you mention which town in Japan you are reporting this from. :)

If you guys want it, I would be happy to do it whenever possible. Oh yeah, that would help I suppose if I told you about the town. It is in Oita Prefecture (in the Kyushu Region) the population is 80,000 (or 60,000 before it merged with 4 surrounding small villages) Which is quite small by Japanese standards. There are:

2 dedicated game stores (Wanpaku and Famicom Dojo)
1 electronics store with a game section (Best Denki)
2 department stores that sell games (Jusco and Youme Town)
1 manga/anime/game store and a discount store with a very small game section. (Book-net)
and
1 porn store that tried to look legitimate buy having a small game/DVD section in the front and a massive porn section behind a curtain. (Goody)

I go to the game stores at least one a week since one is on my way to work and the owner of Famicom Dojo is a friend of mine. Oh, and there is a castle near my house! But that really dosn't have a huge impact on sales trends. :lol
 
Thanks Vinnk. Count me as one of your fans. i look forward to it together with Cheesmeister's OP, Pantherlotus' analysis and Joshua's graphs(did I miss anyone?). You guys need to do this for the NPD threads, too.(excpet for Cheesey and Vinky for obvious reason)
 

apujanata

Member
Vinnk said:
If you guys want it, I would be happy to do it whenever possible. Oh yeah, that would help I suppose if I told you about the town. It is in Oita Prefecture (in the Kyushu Region) the population is 80,000 (or 60,000 before it merged with 4 surrounding small villages) Which is quite small by Japanese standards. There are:

2 dedicated game stores (Wanpaku and Famicom Dojo)
1 electronics store with a game section (Best Denki)
2 department stores that sell games (Jusco and Youme Town)
1 manga/anime/game store and a discount store with a very small game section. (Book-net)
and
1 porn store that tried to look legitimate buy having a small game/DVD section in the front and a massive porn section behind a curtain. (Goody)

I go to the game stores at least one a week since one is on my way to work and the owner of Famicom Dojo is a friend of mine. Oh, and there is a castle near my house! But that really dosn't have a huge impact on sales trends. :lol

Is goody the name of the shop (most probable) or it signifies the fact that you like it (goody) ? I am not trying to imply anything about your taste, but just wanted to clarify things.

I remember Takeshi Castle, a wacky Japanese show, in which people are asked to do difficult things (like jumping through moving wood on water) and raid the castle. (i'm referring to the fact that there is a castle near your house) :).

Is Best Denki a big Japanese electronic store chain ? I remember seeing some Best Denki shop during my visit to Singapore.
 
Denki is international, but yes, I believe it has roots in Japan.

Oh, nuts, I've got their stupid slogan chanting in my head now.

'BEST-E DENKI!!!!'

Make it stop...
 

mollipen

Member
legend166 said:
So I know when Golden Week is, but can someone tell me what it actually is? A holiday week in Japan or something?

It's a week in which three different holidays land, so the island nation of Japan just decided to say "f**k it" and make the entire week a holdiay.
 

Vinnk

Member
apujanata said:
Is goody the name of the shop (most probable) or it signifies the fact that you like it (goody) ? I am not trying to imply anything about your taste, but just wanted to clarify things.

I remember Takeshi Castle, a wacky Japanese show, in which people are asked to do difficult things (like jumping through moving wood on water) and raid the castle. (i'm referring to the fact that there is a castle near your house) :).

Is Best Denki a big Japanese electronic store chain ? I remember seeing some Best Denki shop during my visit to Singapore.

Best Denki is a chain. Not all of them sell games, but most large ones do. "Goody" is the name of the store I belive it is also a chain since I saw one in the town of Hita. But I don't know if it is a national chain or an area one.
 
60_gig_PS3 said:
is there a chart of weekly sales (not cumulative)? It seems like Wii's been on a steady decline for a while now.

Josh posted the Wii chart, but here are the console war weekly sales since October:

mc-weekly.gif
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Cheesemeister said:
Josh posted the Wii chart, but here are the console war weekly sales since October:

mc-weekly.gif
I see the M from Mario's hat in there. :O
 
CountZeroInt said:
Honestly there's no reason 360 should be doing that bad in Japan. It technically has good games out for it that Japanese hardcore gamers would like to play (Blue Dragon, Idolmaster, etc). I think the issue is that Microsoft has been half assed about everything, they have half assed portion of hardcore games and half assed amounts of serious attempts at killer games like Blue Dragon. They need to go in one direction or the other full steam. Mega Drive, Saturn and PC Engine did well in Japan but not being mainstream, by pandering to the hardcore and hentai and fighter and shooter fans.

If it was truly the culture simply rejecting a western console then it would be easier to accept (that does have some % to do with it, but not the biggest reason). Unfortunately it's execution and now the perception is possibly too f'd up for them to change it in one way or another. The problem is that many devs that would have desperately jumped on 360 bandwagon now have an "out" with the Wii (look at Koei making a Wii exclusive game), and if PS3 does not take off like a rocket then many devs will go out of business for lack of a platform to release the type of games they like on (or be like Treasure and Capcom and just start ignoring the Japanese market for their blockbusters).

No it's thier release rate. They should build thier first party support studios instead of relying on third party offerings. So they can have thier own steady strem of would be anticiapted offerings. After Blue Dragon released there should have been a game to compensate it 1 month to 2 months afterwards.

Now the only game to look forward to is Trusty Bell. Then another 6 months later Lost Odyssey. See the pattern? Blue Dragon release December 06. Trusty Bell release June 07. Lost Odyssey release Dcember 07. That type of anticipated release schedule just will not do.
 

apujanata

Member
elostyle said:
Doesn't look like a sellout anymore then?

Please read Vinnk's Village Report and DCharlie's post, and then please shut up.

Edit : Sorry, didn't notice this :
elostyle
Never forget! I'm Dumb!
 

Evlar

Banned
legend166 said:
So I know when Golden Week is, but can someone tell me what it actually is? A holiday week in Japan or something?
Golden Week is a cluster of four national holidays spanning April 29 to May 5. It's like spring break and Independence Day rolled together, and it's the second busiest holiday season in Japan after New Year's.
 
Yikes! I hope for Nintendo's sake it is just a lack of supply because the Wii and PS3's weekly sales are getting dangerously close now (The fact that Vinnk has even seen Wiis makes me wonder)

Because here in London at least, you can't find a Wii for love nor money, second hand or new. And it's been like this ever since launch.
 
OH F!CK, ALARMS RINGING, FANBOYS CRYING....




...¡PS2 is below 15k! :/



Ok, on other news, didn't notice Fire Emblem in the twenties, small but still legs. Congrats to FF3. MHP slowed down a lot, although that seems MC data since last number from Famitsu was 257k (2 weeks ago iirc). Has to be around 730k (maybe a little more if we take Famitsu numbers)...sounds too far away from 1m for the new price drop to make it reach that amount.
 

Mar

Member
GaimeGuy said:
I see the M from Mario's hat in there. :O

Seek help while you still can.

mc-weekly.gif


I hope for Wii's sake that it's supply constrained (which seems true). Because that graph is very, very telling if not.
 

verplant

Member
Didn't see last weeks famitsu software top 30 posted:

2007/02/29-03/04 - !!!LAST WEEK!!!

1. (NDS / Banpresto) Super Robot Wars W - 172.190 / 172.190
2. (PS3 / Bandai Namco) Gundam Musou - 171.032 / 171.032
3. (PSP / Capcom) Monster Hunter Portable 2nd - 156.666 / 902.979
4. (NDS / Level 5) Layton Kyoju to Fushigina Machi - 42.418 / 208.353
5. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Sports - 35.290 / 1.125.968
6. (NDS / Pokemon) Pokemon Diamant / Pearl - 33.470 / 4.869.528
7. (NDS / Nintendo) New Super Mario Bros. - 32.403 / 4.202.166
8. (NDS / Square Enix) Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker - 31.169 / 1.217.541
9. (Wii / Nintendo) Wii Play - 26.001 / 945.985
10. (NDS / Nintendo) Dr. Kawashima: More Brain Training - 25.608 / 4.106.466
11. (NDS / Nintendo) Otona no Joushikiryoku Training DS - 20.897 / 1.246.176
12. (Wii / Nintendo) Fire Emblem: Goddess of the Dawn - 20.413 / 93.750
13. (NDS / Bandai Namco) Unou no Tatsujin: Soukai! Machigai Museum 2 - 18.885 / 18.885
14. (NDS / Nintendo) Picross DS - 18.766 / 194.130
15. (NDS / Nintendo) Animal Crossing: Wild World - 16.905 / 3.936.988
16. (NDS / Marvelous) Harvest Moon: The Island I Grew Up On - 15.124 / 159.071
17. (NDS / Nintendo) Hotel Dusk: Room 215 - 14.670 / 161.894
18. (NDS / Nintendo) Mario Kart DS - 13.525 / 1.986.385
19. (PS2 / Alchemist) Higurashi no Naku Koro ni - 13.117 / 93.319
20. (NDS / Nintendo) Wario: Master of Disguise - 12.137 / 238.219
21. (Wii / Takara Tomy) Naruto: Shippuuden Gekitou Ninja Taisen! EX - 12.004 / 46.787
22. (NDS / Nintendo) Dr. Kawashima: Brain Training - 11.612 / 3.166.150
23. (PS2 / Capcom) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - 10.577 / 357.899
24. (NDS / Capcom) Mega Man Star Force: Dragon / Pegasus / Leo - 10.183 / 415.114
25. (NDS / Electronic Arts) Sim City DS - 9.967 / 60.599
26. (Wii / Nintendo) Wario Ware: Smooth Moves - 9.723 / 356.771
27. (NDS / Sega) Bleach DS 2nd: Kokui Hirameku Requiem - 9.316 / 65.414
28. (NDS / Spike) Nounai Aesthe: IQ Suppli DS - 8.764 / 145.608
29. (NDS / Konami) Death Note - 8.674 / 72.658
30. (NDS / Nintendo) English Training DS - 8.619 / 1.677.297
 
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