This Week Sales:
Since 11/27/07 - 15 total weeks:
360 - Following the trend: 3-4k. Next Gen Avg = 10,627.
Post Holiday Avg = 5,610.
Wii - Even further below expectations than the previous week. New trend appearing: 50-65k. Next Gen Avg = 117,847.
Post Holiday Avg = 72,526.
PS3 - Slightly higher than expectations. Establishing new trend: 25-33k. Next Gen Avg = 39,733.
Post Holiday Avg = 24,988.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● The PS3 improving its post-holiday weekly average, but just barely. Its two "big" games of the year in Japan have increased sales by a total of +4k, +22k, and +8k (this week) over the weekly trend (25k). While it isn't fair to use NPD as an influence in these comments, it's fairly obvious that the problems the PS3 is having in Japan aren't because of culture, the size of their apartments, or no want of HD: it has to be the price. It's just too much money. While I am cautious on the PS3, I am still raising the weekly expected average from 22-28k up to 25-33k for the next 4 weeks.
● The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments. Pretty bad week as it appears on the surface, but it turns out that last week was actually worse in 1v1 vs. the PS3. Keen eyes will notice some upcoming titles that Nintendo may be holding some units back for, as well as acknowledging increased shipments to other territories (US & EU/UK/AUS). While I am bullish on the Wii sales, I have to lower the expected average (in JPN) from 60-80k down to 50-70k for the next 4 weeks, with the expectation that Nintendo will drop a 200k bomb in the near near future (3rd week of April?).
Expectations for 03/05-03/12
360 - 3.5k
Wii - 65k <--- Production capacity finally up this week?
PS3 - 29k <--- Up, but up from bad is still bad.
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share Week-to-Week
Code:
[B][U]Date____ 360 Wii PS3[/U][/B]
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%
01/08-01/14: 14% 59% 27%
01/15-01/21: 14% 60% 26%
01/22-01/28: 13% 60% 26%
01/29-02/04: 13% 61% 26%
02/05-02/11: 13% 61% 26%
02/12-02/18: 13% 62% 26%
02/19-02/25: 12% 62% 25%
03/26-03/04: 12% 62% 26%
03/05-03/11: 12% 62% 26%
Significant Notes:
1. Wii had currently has a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 after 15 weeks.
2. The Wii has never sold less than 44k in one week.
3. The PS3 just had its 2ND BEST WEEK THIS YEAR with 33k units sold.
4. The Wii just had its WORST WEEK EVER with 44k units sold.
5. The Wii only sold 1.39x the PS3 this week, but has almost 3x LTD.
6. The 360 just had its worst week since the new generation began, selling less than 20x what the Wii sold in one week (in its worst week ever).
PL MC POST HISTORY
Click for accountability!
01/15-01/21
01/22-01/28
01/29-02/04
02/05-02/11
02/12-02/18
02/19-02/25
02/26-03/04