Support NeoGAF

[Sage00]

Depends when the slim gets announced and released. They announce it at E3, regular PS3 sales go in the toilet until the slim comes out.

A Slim announcement will not be too far off the release, and will likely coincide with a firesale price drop of the old hardware to clear it out. The amount of times people genuinely believe multinational companies don't know how to launch and maintain a product in these threads is astonishing.

I'd say, going by SCEJ partners release schedule, announcement of PS3 Slim in the next few weeks with a price drop of the current unit beginning the week of June 25th.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Everyone knows how Wang fucked up, and nobody's ready to repeat it.

 

[donny2112]

What the PS3 Slim will do, regardless of how it actually sells, is provide some useful data to compare the impact of a redesign on a console vs. a handheld.

I think the usual position has been that it a redesign much more impactful on a handheld, since changing the design directly affects the gameplay experience. With a console, the interaction is done through a controller, and the system itself is just for looks. One thing that'll murk it up some is if it comes with a price drop, which happesn to also be likely. However if the regular PS3 gets a price drop first, especially if it's a greater drop than the PS3Slim price, that could mitigate it some.

 

[MoogPaul]

A Slim announcement will not be too far off the release, and will likely coincide with a firesale price drop of the old hardware to clear it out. The amount of times people genuinely believe multinational companies don't know how to launch and maintain a product in these threads is astonishing.

I'd say, going by SCEJ partners release schedule, announcement of PS3 Slim in the next few weeks with a price drop of the current unit beginning the week of June 25th.

yeah, because the ps3 and minidisc has been a smashing success and don't even get me started on the launch of the dreamcast. companies fuck up you know. pretty often, actually.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

yeah, because the ps3 and minidisc has been a smashing success and don't even get me started on the launch of the dreamcast. companies fuck up you know. pretty often, actually.

There's a difference between the launch of a new system/format/platform, and the relaunch of an older system with no difference in capability.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Not a chance with PS3 Slim coming.

It's like when the Pikachu edition of the console made N64 beat PS1, since all PS1 had going for it was the popular software and mass acceptance.

 

[Sage00]

It's like when the Pikachu edition of the console made N64 beat PS1, since all PS1 had going for it was the popular software and mass acceptance.

That would be an accurate comparison if it was PS3 versus DS or PSP, or Wii had any kind of popular software on a constant basis and/or acceptance by the hardcore portion of the market, but we're talking battle of the third and fourth place platforms here. Uncharted territory in Japanese videogame history.

yeah, because the ps3 and minidisc has been a smashing success and don't even get me started on the launch of the dreamcast. companies fuck up you know. pretty often, actually.

Dreamcast's launch and sales matched targets pretty well for the period it existed. Minidisc is a media format, not a specific piece of hardware, and I'm sure Sony's premier Minidisc player sold pretty well for the time it existed. The format's failure to take off is another issue entirely.

 

[spwolf]

A Slim announcement will not be too far off the release, and will likely coincide with a firesale price drop of the old hardware to clear it out. The amount of times people genuinely believe multinational companies don't know how to launch and maintain a product in these threads is astonishing.

I'd say, going by SCEJ partners release schedule, announcement of PS3 Slim in the next few weeks with a price drop of the current unit beginning the week of June 25th.

not so sure about PSP 3000 winding down in Japan whatsoever... did you even check its sales? It is selling really good at that price.

Japan is not too crazy about digital downloads either, i do expect PSP bundle but significant drop in price? I doubt it.

 

[Sage00]

not so sure about PSP 3000 winding down in Japan whatsoever... did you even check its sales? It is selling really good at that price.

Japan is not too crazy about digital downloads either, i do expect PSP bundle but significant drop in price? I doubt it.

Ah, I think you may have misinterpreted my post. I was talking about the PS3 Slim, not the PSP Go. PSP-3000 is intended to continue selling alongside with the PSP Go, according to Sony.

 

[gantz85]

not so sure about PSP 3000 winding down in Japan whatsoever... did you even check its sales? It is selling really good at that price.

Japan is not too crazy about digital downloads either, i do expect PSP bundle but significant drop in price? I doubt it.

Friend, he's talking about PS3.

You're talking about PSP.

 

[Johann]

As donny said before, I see a console revision as a really fancy marketing push. It's not about removing the 'fly in the ointment' like with handhelds. It comes down to possible price drops/increases and a steady stream of software that consumers want with the redesign highlighting this.

 

[gantz85]

A Slim announcement will not be too far off the release, and will likely coincide with a firesale price drop of the old hardware to clear it out. The amount of times people genuinely believe multinational companies don't know how to launch and maintain a product in these threads is astonishing.

I'd say, going by SCEJ partners release schedule, announcement of PS3 Slim in the next few weeks with a price drop of the current unit beginning the week of June 25th.

If you look at PS2 though, the slim was announced in 2004's September and launched in November. That's two months apart. If we're expecting PS3 Slim's launch in September, a July announcement should be about right. And where the announcement is made also depends on whether Slim is going to arrive worldwide simultaneously.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

That would be an accurate comparison if it was PS3 versus DS or PSP, or Wii had any kind of popular software on a constant basis and/or acceptance by the hardcore portion of the market, but we're talking battle of the third and fourth place platforms here. Uncharted territory in Japanese videogame history.

Wii has had a shitty first half and PS3 a relatively good one, no doubt. But something tells me Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, Samurai Warriors 3, Wii Fit Plus, and possibly Crystal Bearers and/or Tales of Graces will help make the second half a bit of a bigger deal than the first half's top games like Monster Hunter G, Mario Tennis, and finally-not-a-last-gen-port One Piece.

 

[Sage00]

Wii has had a shitty first half and PS3 a relatively good one, no doubt. But something tells me Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, Samurai Warriors 3, Wii Fit Plus, and possibly Crystal Bearers and/or Tales of Graces will help make the second half a bit of a bigger deal than the first half's top games like Monster Hunter G, Mario Tennis, and finally-not-a-last-gen-port One Piece.

I have no doubt Wii will return to much stronger performance than it has seen previously when those games release. But I don't think it's a sure thing that lineup can push anymore consoles than say a console revision with GT5, End of Eternity, Katamari Tribute, Gundam Senki, Bayonetta, Tekken 6/BlazBlue/KoFXII and a slight possibility of FFXIII. Likely with a price drop in the late part of the year.

At least we can say in any case the health of the market in H2 2009 is looking much better than H1 already.

 

[Rolf NB]

If you look at PS2 though, the slim was announced in 2004's September and launched in November. That's two months apart. If we're expecting PS3 Slim's launch in September, a July announcement should be about right. And where the announcement is made also depends on whether Slim is going to arrive worldwide simultaneously.

Regional staggering makes absolutely no sense anymore. People have the internet now, they know what's up and coming, no matter the marketing plan. They'll just hold off.

 

[Spiegel]

Regional staggering makes absolutely no sense anymore. People have the internet now, they know what's up and coming, no matter the marketing plan. They'll just hold off.

Yeah, Ds lite sold pretty bad in America after Dsi was announced and released in Japan.

Not really

 

[Sage00]

Yeah, Ds lite sold pretty bad in America after Dsi was announced and released in Japan.

Not really

PS3 is hardly in the situation DS Lite was though, lol.

 

[[Nintex]]

But I don't think it's a sure thing that lineup can push anymore consoles than say a console revision with GT5, End of Eternity, Katamari Tribute, Gundam Senki, Bayonetta, Tekken 6/BlazBlue/KoFXII and a slight possibility of FFXIII. Likely with a price drop in the late part of the year.
.

You're putting your money on Katamari, Bayonetta and the fighting genre really?
Nintendo probably has more than just Wii Fit coming, Pikmin 3 and Mario should pull some decent numbers. By decent, I mean keep selling for who knows how long.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I have no doubt Wii will return to much stronger performance than it has seen previously when those games release. But I don't think it's a sure thing that lineup can push anymore consoles than say a console revision with GT5, End of Eternity, Katamari Tribute, Gundam Senki, Bayonetta, Tekken 6/BlazBlue/KoFXII and a slight possibility of FFXIII. Likely with a price drop in the late part of the year.

Ehh, I see we disagree. The only two of those with franchise power approaching a Wii Sports/Fit or Monster Hunter are Gran Turismo and mainline Final Fantasy. Katamari, King of Fighters, and BlazBlue I'd be surprised to see reach 100K.

At least we can say in any case the health of the market in H2 2009 is looking much better than H1 already.

Yeah, as long as everyone isn't unemployed and swinesick.

 

[Sage00]

Ehh, I see we disagree. The only two of those with franchise power approaching a Wii Sports/Fit or Monster Hunter are Gran Turismo and mainline Final Fantasy. Katamari, King of Fighters, and BlazBlue I'd be surprised to see reach 100K.

I'm interested to see if the hardware revision will have a "launch effect" on those titles close to its release, pushing them above their normal expected numbers. Like Donny said earlier, we rarely see console revisions, and I don't think we've ever seen a revision of a non-market leader console. In any case it'll definitely set a precedent we can use in the future. The initial reason I threw the fighting games in is because while they're usually 50-100k titles, they all launch in the summer with a short period of time between each. Seemed like a decent source of momentum.

 

[[Nintex]]

I'm interested to see if the hardware revision will have a "launch effect" on those titles close to its release, pushing them above their normal expected numbers. Like Donny said earlier, we rarely see console revisions, and I don't think we've ever seen a revision of a non-market leader console. In any case it'll definitely set a precedent we can use in the future. The initial reason I threw the fighting games in is because while they're usually 50-100k titles, they all launch in the summer with a short period of time between each. Seemed like a decent source of momentum.

Dragon Quest IX will wipe everything else from the charts this summer, the consoles will recover once Monster Hunter 3 hits in august.

The Japanese market is in terrible shape, the most important 'players' Square-Enix and Nintendo, are doing fuck all.

 

[Rolf NB]

Yeah, Ds lite sold pretty bad in America after Dsi was announced and released in Japan.

Not really

The DSlite's ease of piracy and lower price and Slot 2, in that order, are factors that keep it relevant. Price may transfer to a PS3 revision, at first, but not the other two.

I know I'd be hard-pressed for a reason to prefer a now current PS3 model over a slim.

 

[gantz85]

Dragon Quest IX will wipe everything else from the charts this summer, the consoles will recover once Monster Hunter 3 hits in august.

The Japanese market is in terrible shape, the most important 'players' Square-Enix and Nintendo, are doing fuck all.

Well, if we look at the Top 20 chart of the PS2 LTD, there are Square, Squeenix, SCE, Koei, Konami, Capcom & Samy.

If we look at the PS3's current LTD, Square-Enix is missing but all the other regular players are there.

If we look at the Wii's current LTD, there's Nintendo, Namco, Square Enix, Capcom and Hudson. Koei, Konami and Sega are missing.


Not too bad, but of course we can go the AAA argument route again.. I hope hope that prick Deacon doesn't come around :lol

 

[Rolf NB]

Dragon Quest IX will wipe everything else from the charts this summer, the consoles will recover once Monster Hunter 3 hits in august.

The Japanese market is in terrible shape, the most important 'players' Square-Enix and Nintendo, are doing fuck all.

I just realized Dragon Quest IX is out in six weeks

 

[king zell]

so no first day numbers for KH DS? i know it was released on Saturday but someone should have reported anything by now

 

[gkryhewy]

I just realized Dragon Quest IX is out in six weeks

And with it, my bad ass DSi protect case!

 

[Dash Kappei]

Holy shit Miles! Awesome 1st day, maybe it'll match GS4 first week, that would be astounding for a spin-off.

Also:
Is MHG Wii CC's bundle still supply constrained?

 

[-Kh-]

so no first day numbers for KH DS? i know it was released on Saturday but someone should have reported anything by now

I came to look for that as well. I want to know how well DS owners will accept a KH spin off.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Well, if we look at the Top 20 chart of the PS2 LTD, there are Square, Squeenix, SCE, Koei, Konami, Capcom & Samy.

If we look at the PS3's current LTD, Square-Enix is missing but all the other regular players are there.

If we look at the Wii's current LTD, there's Nintendo, Namco, Square Enix, Capcom and Hudson. Koei, Konami and Sega are missing.

Problems I have:

You're comparing an arbitrary "top x" chart. Groan.

You assume that Sega ought to feature in the top 20 based on their PS2 and PS3 records. The PS2 Sammy game you're referring to is a junk Pachislot game that's about ten bazillion times more popular than any other pachislot game. The first ACTUAL Sega-Sammy game on PS2 is, sitting pretty at #44, Yakuza 2. The reason why they make the top 20 on PS3 isn't because they're selling like gangbusters, it's because the top 20 is a low hurdle to meet.

Yakuza 3 is in the top 20, as are Kenzan and Valkyria Chronicles. Yakuza 3 would have been #75 on PS2, Kenzan would have been #165, and Valkyria would have been somewhere around #300--yet they're in the top 20 on PS3.

Finally, while we're discussing whether games should count or not--Sega fully developed Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games, which is #10 on Wii and Sega's best-selling console game this generation. It was published by Sega outside Japan, but Nintendo inside Japan.

Is it really fair to say that Sega enjoyed success on PS2/PS3 but not on Wii?

You count Koei, but fail to chart their substantial decline. Koei has three games in the PS2 top 20; DW4 with 1.2 million, DW3 with 1.05 million, and SW 1.02 million. They're on PS3 with DW6 with 0.37 million (would be #106 on PS2), Musou Orochi Z with 200k (somewhere around #270 or so).

Even Konami; They've got 5 games in the PS2 top 20, but they're all PES. PES has declined substantially. Konami's PES offerings this generation would not make anywhere near the top 20 last generation.

So you can't just compare a top 20 from last generation to this one. This goes for Wii games as well. Namco's #22 on the Wii would be #209 on the PS2.

In other words, your comparison basically explains which companies have big slices of the pie on each console, but it doesn't explain how big the overall pie is, what percentage of the overall pie the big slices made up, what the companies did to deserve it, etc.

In fact, I'd say the comparison is pretty much meaningless in general. A far more beneficial way of evaluating success would be to qualitatively determine, on a company-to-company, game-to-game basis, which companies achieve success and which consoles and how we can measure success. It's more work, but I don't see the sense in taking pride on a lazy comparison when the data is available to dig deeper.

Hell, if you want to stay quantitative, at least go for company median sales and stdevs instead of just hand-waving comparisons

 

[Dash Kappei]

I came to look for that as well. I want to know how well DS owners will accept a KH spin off.

I think about 110/140k first day and 180/240k first week.

We'll see.

 

[Parl]

Well, if we look at the Top 20 chart of the PS2 LTD, there are Square, Squeenix, SCE, Koei, Konami, Capcom & Samy.

If we look at the PS3's current LTD, Square-Enix is missing but all the other regular players are there.

If we look at the Wii's current LTD, there's Nintendo, Namco, Square Enix, Capcom and Hudson. Koei, Konami and Sega are missing.


Not too bad, but of course we can go the AAA argument route again.. I hope hope that prick Deacon doesn't come around :lol

I know, what the hell are these Japanese companies up to?

 

[Spiegel]

I came to look for that as well. I want to know how well DS owners will accept a KH spin off.

Get6-2 has some wide estimates. Keep in mind that these are not Sinobi's and the real numbers surely will be different.

5月30日発売タイトルは「DS：キングダムハーツ 358/2 Days」のみ。

スクエニは相変わらず一部流通に出荷日の規制を行っており、
フライング販売の対策を厳しく行っているようです。

発売日店着は運送上のトラブルや着荷時間など、
お客様にご迷惑をかけるケースも見られますし、
あまりやってほしくない対策です。

話は横道にそれましたが発売初日の動向は、
なかなかの動きなのではないでしょうか。

初日の販売数は10万本を超えている可能性が高く、
初週で20万本にいけるかどうかといったところではないでしょうか。

初動型タイトルですので来週以降の動きには注意が必要ですが、
どこまで伸びていく事ができるか予測が難しいところです。

今週は逆転検事とキングダムハーツが期待通りの動きで助かりました。

http://ameblo.jp/get6-2/theme-10003490042.html

Babelfish says:

- First day numbers have an high probability of being 100k+


Yeah thanks, we were expecting that.

 

[jj984jj]

I know, what the hell are these Japanese companies up to?

Hudson? They've been making Deca Sports, Koropina, and a bunch of DD games... and they keep pushing Miami Law DS in NA lately. Koei's still pumping out Musou games and trying to revive the Zill O'll series lately. Konami's doing MGS, Suikoden DS, and a bunch of other stuff. And Sega's working with tons of third party developers lately (and they still have Nagoshi produced games developed internally).

 

[-Kh-]

I know, what the hell are these Japanese companies up to?

Are you actually being sarcastic? Those 4 companies have been making Wii games, with the exception of Koei which really has supported the Nintendo home consoles less than the others, but even them are bringing out a 'big name' game, Samurai Warriors 3.

Spoiler

Hope I was being wooshed

Get6-2 has some wide estimates. Keep in mind that these are not Sinobi's and the real numbers surely will be different.

- First day numbers have an high probability of being 100k+

Thanks. It should do better than FFCC EoT then.

 

[BishopLamont]

Stump with the beat down once again.

 

[cvxfreak]

Holy shit Miles! Awesome 1st day, maybe it'll match GS4 first week, that would be astounding for a spin-off.

Also:
Is MHG Wii CC's bundle still supply constrained?

Definitely not. I think someone got the hint and decided to make it widely available. It can still eventually sell out, but I think whoever wants it can still get it.

BTW, a few games have hit the bargain bins at my usual gaming shop, Bic:

Biohazard 5 (Xbox 360): ¥3990
Metroid Prime (Wii): ¥1980
Donkey Kong Jungle Beat (Wii): ¥1980

Was pleased to pick up Biohazard 5 at that price for collection purposes. It was the regular edition.

 

[schuelma]

Definitely not. I think someone got the hint and decided to make it widely available. It can still eventually sell out, but I think whoever wants it can still get it.

Yah I saw the bundle at every store I went to last week.

 

[donny2112]

Yah I saw the bundle at every store I went to last week.

Welcome back! Good trip? See any evidence of pigs? Did the Famitsu magazine put your luggage overweight for the trip back?

 

[Kenka]

So, how many units for KH for god's sake ?!

 

[schuelma]

Welcome back! Good trip? See any evidence of pigs? Did the Famitsu magazine put your luggage overweight for the trip back?

Thanks! It was awesome- at times the only problem was that we were so tired from doing so much. gaming wise, I got two Famitsu mags and walked around Akihabara for a couple of hours when the wife was resting, so that was cool. Tokyo is really an amazing city- I live an hour away from Manhattan and it doesn't even compare in terms of how busy it is. We'd definitely like to come back in a few years, hopefully with more money and knowing more of the language.

 

[cvxfreak]

Thanks! It was awesome- at times the only problem was that we were so tired from doing so much. gaming wise, I got two Famitsu mags and walked around Akihabara for a couple of hours when the wife was resting, so that was cool. Tokyo is really an amazing city- I live an hour away from Manhattan and it doesn't even compare in terms of how busy it is. We'd definitely like to come back in a few years, hopefully with more money and knowing more of the language.

Awesome. Wish you had sent me a PM; I could have showed you around.

 

[jesusraz]

So, how many units for KH for god's sake ?!

Well, it's currently No.1 on the Amazon Best Sellers list, just above Gyakuten Kenji...Sadly no numbers yet, though.

 

[schuelma]

Awesome. Wish you had sent me a PM; I could have showed you around.

I actually thought about asking some Japanese gaffers for some help, but didn't want to be a bother to anyone. We both loved it though, and definitely want to come back (but probably venture outside Tokyo more than we did).

 

[donny2112]

Well, it's official. Taiko Wii is the best-selling third-party Wii game in Japan. DQS didn't make the 2008 Top 500, so the last number we'll get for that (in Famitsu) is 489K from October.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Well, it's official. Taiko Wii is the best-selling third-party Wii game in Japan. DQS didn't make the 2008 Top 500, so the last number we'll get for that (in Famitsu) is 489K from October.

Even if it was #501 and sold one less than #500, its total would be 505,158; which Taiko passed in late April.

 

[Parl]

Are you actually being sarcastic? Those 4 companies have been making Wii games, with the exception of Koei which really has supported the Nintendo home consoles less than the others, but even them are bringing out a 'big name' game, Samurai Warriors 3.

Spoiler

Hope I was being wooshed

Not quite sarcastic, just hyperbolic.

Not to say these companies should be suppoirt Wii more (or less), but Koei and Konami's efforts on Wii are among the worst out of them all. Sega have done some good stuff and have been rewarded greatly for it, if only for Mario & Sonic, SMB, and HotD outweighing the much smaller profits of their niche titles.

Yet they're still making a loss, so they need to change their HD strategy if they haven't already.

Konami is profitible in non MGS times recently, aren't they? Or am I getting this wrong?

 

[donny2112]

Good from the E3 Conference:
* Nintendo teaming with a third-party to create a new Metroid (Team Ninja making Metroid)
* Two new Wii Mario games announced (2-D and 3-D)

Bad from the E3 Conference:
* Games supposedly "held back" for Motion+ (nothing was shown from Nintendo for Motion+ besides WSR)
* Vitality sensor with no software attached to it
* No new games using the Balance Board
* No colors (Wiimote and/or Console)
* No Zelda (mostly offset by new Metroid)
* No DSi VC


I don't know if this is going to help the Japanese situation an incredibly large amount. Maybe they'll have more at the Japan-specific conference. :/

 

[schuelma]

SMB Wii is clearly aimed right at the Japanese market. I think it could be big, certainly bigger than Galaxy.

Really curious whether we'll hear some more Japanese-centric stuff in a few days at the alleged E3 Conference back in Japan. Nintendo has to have stuff ready from Monolith and others right?

 

[donny2112]

Nintendo has to have stuff ready from Monolith and others right?

For the Japanese market, I'd think they need something like Dragon Quest Swords 2 with Motion+ to help. There was a distinct lack of mention of anything Dragon Quest at E3 (when Reggie was talking about RPGs on the DS and a long absent game, I thought he was talking about DQIX, for a moment), so maybe they're holding back that kind of info for the Japan conference.

 

[speculawyer]

03./00. [360] Mass Effect (Microsoft Game Studios) - 17,502 / NEW

Howard Stern is right . . . Lesbians = sales.