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Media Create Sales: Oct 12-18, 2009
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Famitsu:
31/03/95 [PS1] Tekken (Namco) - no data for it
29/03/96 [PS1] Tekken 2 (Namco) - 367.666 / 1.079.585
26/03/98 [PS1] Tekken 3 (Namco) - 671.886 / 1.186.118
30/03/00 [PS2] Tekken Tag Tournament (Namco) - 214.753 / 457.339
28/03/02 [PS2] Tekken 4 (Namco) - 176.280 / 318.920
03/11/04 [PS2] Tekken 4 (Playstation 2 the Best) (Namco) - / 26.172
31/03/05 [PS2] Tekken 5 (Namco) - 216.566 / 317.357
02/11/05 [PS2] Tekken 5 (Playstation 2 the Best) (Namco) - 4.041 / 39.707
06/07/06 [PSP] Tekken: Dark Resurrection (Namco Bandai) - 54.764 / 114.734
12/07/07 [PSP] Tekken: Dark Resurrection (PSP the Best) (Namco Bandai) - / 92.897
Series had a sharp drop after PS and something tells me the drop will continue.
31/03/95 [PS1] Tekken (Namco) - no data for it
29/03/96 [PS1] Tekken 2 (Namco) - 367.666 / 1.079.585
26/03/98 [PS1] Tekken 3 (Namco) - 671.886 / 1.186.118
30/03/00 [PS2] Tekken Tag Tournament (Namco) - 214.753 / 457.339
28/03/02 [PS2] Tekken 4 (Namco) - 176.280 / 318.920
03/11/04 [PS2] Tekken 4 (Playstation 2 the Best) (Namco) - / 26.172
31/03/05 [PS2] Tekken 5 (Namco) - 216.566 / 317.357
02/11/05 [PS2] Tekken 5 (Playstation 2 the Best) (Namco) - 4.041 / 39.707
06/07/06 [PSP] Tekken: Dark Resurrection (Namco Bandai) - 54.764 / 114.734
12/07/07 [PSP] Tekken: Dark Resurrection (PSP the Best) (Namco Bandai) - / 92.897
Series had a sharp drop after PS and something tells me the drop will continue.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
The Sega variable is very dangerous! :lolduckroll said:How about the drop from VF4 to VF5?
Edit: Damn beaten!
Not that it really matters, but the reason I went for that angle (apart from defending what I saw as a valid statement) is that the first day numbers had already been known for a while and there had already been some (justified) comments on how great they were. The first week numbers (and consequently the growth from first day to first week) was new data.test_account said:Ye, i know that Frillen first said it, i quoted him as well in the previous Media Create threadBut the way you wrote it ("the game still had a great first week compared to the original, but it just wasn't quite as great as the first day numbers hinted at.") also seemed to me that you had more focus on that Uncharted 2 wasnt as frontloaded compared to other western game instead of having more focus on how great the first week sales were.
Maybe i read more into this comment than what you and Frillen actually ment though. Maybe you just said it as information. That is why i said "it seemed to me" and not "you ment it like this", because i wasnt sure if you had more focus on that Uncharted 2 was more frontloaded instead of having more focus on how good it sold. So please correct me if i missunderstood what you ment
Uncharted actually reached 62,664 through 2008 according to Media-Create (2008 top 500), so had some legs without the re-release.test_account said:
Regardless though, the main point is that Uncharted 2 didn't simply perform like most western games when it comes to growth from first day to first week. It's entirely possible it'll gain some legs eventually, but the first signs suggest otherwise.
I said there are plently of examples of sequels with legs, but for the purpose of this discussion (initial signs of legs based on first day and first week numbers) all the games you listed work as examples of better performers than Uncharted 2 in this respect.test_account said:
Looking at the games you listed, there is no strong correlation between high first day sales and low first day to first week growth so I don't think the actual first day number is very relevant here. The average growth for the six western games you listed is 62%, which also is significantly higher than Uncharted 2's 17%. (If you think a high first day number should lead to low first week growth, note that GTA4 grew 59% from a first day number of 77k.)test_account said:I knew that you ment more, but how much more?
I saw no reason beforehand to assume that Uncharted 2 would have by far the least growth from first day to first week of all these western games, so if I were to guess I suppose I (based on the first day number) would've expected it to reach a sell-through number of 90-95% indicating a virtually complete sellout. (Assuming no extra weekend shipment.)
charlequin
Banned
Chris1964 said:
I'll guess 5.
test_account
XP-39C²
Ah ok. I didnt really mean anything negative about it when i asked just to underline that, and it doesnt really matter that much as you say, i agree. I was just wondering, so i wanted to askJokeropia said:
But i understand what you ment now, thanks for the explanation Wow, i didnt know that, thanks for the info!Jokeropia said:
Then Uncharted 1 (with the re-release) has so far sold about 80k in Japan?Ye, that is true. On the other side, Uncharted 2 had a stronger first week (and first day) number compared to many other western games in Japan. Both Uncharted 1 and 2 had a grow of about 8k from first day to first week, so if Uncharted 2 follows the same pattern as Uncharted 1 when it comes to how many copies of the games that are sold, maybe we can see some good legs for Uncharted 2 as well?Jokeropia said:
I see now that you said "sequels" indeed and not "western games" as i first thought you said, i am sorry for the mistake :\ But about sequels, which western game sequels have had legs (legs as in keeping selling for a longer period of time) in Japan?Jokeropia said:
Ye, when it comes to seeing how games might keep on selling based on percentage increase from first day to first week, then Uncharted 2 is some lower compared to other western games as you say, that is true. I agreeJokeropia said:
Cant the first day numbers be relevant though? If the first day numbers are higher, couldnt it then be a lower chance for a high percentage increase to the first week? For example, if Killzone 2 had sold 30k the first day instead of 20k, would we still have seen a 115% increase? There are expections though, like GTA4 as you mention. Even when GTA4 had a high first day number, the percentage increase were also high. Not quite as high as 89% like Uncharted 1, but it was still pretty high, that is trueJokeropia said:
Ok, that seems like a fair expectation, thanks for the answer!Jokeropia said:
I also thought that we might have seen a bit higher first week number (maybe somehwere around 60k+ or so?) for Uncharted 2 to be honest, so i agree that the first week number were a bit lower than i expected. So i didnt disagree with that the first day to first week growth was lower compared to other western games just to mention that
I just wanted to ask if there were more focus on the success of the game or on that the game was more frontloaded. But after reading your answer to what you ment when you said this, i know that i read too much into it the first time, i am sorry. I didnt mean anything negative or disrespect about it when i asked just to underline that, so i hope that what i wrote wasnt understood like this I was just curious, so i wanted to ask Going from 9k first day to 17k first week is generally a sign of better legs than going from 47k first day to 55k first week. (It's unlikely that those better legs will help you sell more LTD, but we're just looking at the legs in this example.) Another example: say a game sells 50k first day and reaches 150k by first week, thus increasing 100k from first day to first week. Another game sells 2 million first day and reaches 2.1 million first week, also increasing 100k from first day to first week. Now the former game has sold very evenly during all the days it has been out and is pretty likely to maintain a similar pace at least for a week or two, while the second game got virtually all of it's sales in day 1 and then dropped steeply. The former game is more likely to have better legs than the latter. (Now since this is an extreme example the latter game is still likely to get the best LTD, but if we're just looking at the legs here.) Do you understand this reasoning?test_account said:Ye, that is true. On the other side, Uncharted 2 had a stronger first week (and first day) number compared to many other western games in Japan. Both Uncharted 1 and 2 had a grow of about 8k from first day to first week, so if Uncharted 2 follows the same pattern as Uncharted 1 when it comes to how many copies of the games that are sold, maybe we can see some good legs for Uncharted 2 as well?
I dunno. Looking at the ones you listed, none seemed to have outstanding legs but some had better than others. We'll probably know more once we get the 2009 top 100/500.test_account said:I see now that you said "sequels" indeed and not "western games" as i first thought you said, i am sorry for the mistake :\ But about sequels, which western game sequels have had legs (legs as in keeping selling for a longer period of time) in Japan?
Not necessarily. There are some huge openers that are frontloaded (Final Fantasy being the prime example), some huge openers with great legs (Pokemon, Monster Hunter), small openers with great legs (Brain Training) and small openers with no legs (a ton of games fit here). The specific game and what franchise it belongs to are much more important factors when determining how frontloaded it's likely to be (both with respect to first day to first week growth and eventual legs) than how big the first day sales are. (Of course, if a game sells out first day and doesn't get a second shipment before next week it'll obviously have very little first day -> first week growth, but that's another issue.)test_account said:
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
I took the predictions to Excel to see the results when numbers come in. Since I'm using the 6 releases basis with no ranges, some predictions need to be exact (or to exist). That is: PS3 Bayonetta, 360 Bayonetta, PS3 Tekken, 360 Tekken, PSP Persona 3 Portable and DS FF Gaiden 4 WoL.
duckroll: Bayonetta PS3, Bayonetta 360 and FF Gaiden ... without ranges
Y2Kev: Bayonetta PS3 ... without range
onken: FF Gaiden and Persona 3 Portable .... predictions
PuppetMaster: everything and without ranges
V_Arnold: FF Gaiden and Persona 3 Portable .... predictions
I'll use Famitsu leak (that is, exact numbers rounded to nearest thousand) and list by cumulative absolute difference, so the one with the lowest wins. Is it ok?
PD: Oh, and anyone can still join. No need to use any specific format since I'm copying them by hand, just the 6 releases mentioned with exact numbers rounded to the nearest thousand. Before first day numbers arrive of course.
duckroll: Bayonetta PS3, Bayonetta 360 and FF Gaiden ... without ranges
Y2Kev: Bayonetta PS3 ... without range
onken: FF Gaiden and Persona 3 Portable .... predictions
PuppetMaster: everything and without ranges
V_Arnold: FF Gaiden and Persona 3 Portable .... predictions
I'll use Famitsu leak (that is, exact numbers rounded to nearest thousand) and list by cumulative absolute difference, so the one with the lowest wins. Is it ok?
PD: Oh, and anyone can still join. No need to use any specific format since I'm copying them by hand, just the 6 releases mentioned with exact numbers rounded to the nearest thousand. Before first day numbers arrive of course.
It's ok if you are going to do this every weekKurosaki Ichigo said:
There are major releases for every remaining week of the year and it will be funny to see what are the general estimates for the Japanese market.
I can already see big disparities at FF XIII and NSMB Wii predictions.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
With no parser and my excel skills (lack of), I can only hope just a few people predict (like the 7 right now with 5 incomplete)Chris1964 said:It's ok if you are going to do this every week
There are major releases for every remaining week of the year and it will be funny to see what are the general estimates for the Japanese market.
I can already see big disparities at FF XIII and NSMB Wii predictions.
Though its easy later to see as a webpage and copy them here in code tags...just the usernames mixing a bit...
Code:
Actual Kuro Chris Road schuelma jj984jj Orgen Grampasso 0 duckroll Y2Kev onken PuppetMaster V_Arnold
PS3 Bayo 0 125000 110000 120000 135000 115000 127000 132000 0 0 0 120000 0 95000
360 Bayo 0 50000 50000 50000 40000 50000 46000 50000 0 0 55000 25000 0 70000
PS3 Tek 0 105000 100000 120000 115000 150000 98000 95000 0 150000 120000 130000 0 110000
360 Tek 0 30000 40000 50000 25000 45000 46000 43000 0 40000 38000 60000 0 50000
PSP P3P 0 125000 120000 100000 115000 110000 87000 78000 0 90000 80000 0 0 0
DS 4WoL 0 105000 140000 100000 90000 140000 158000 170000 0 0 120000 0 0 0
Difference 0 540000 560000 540000 520000 610000 562000 568000 0 280000 413000 335000 0 325000
PS3 Bayo 0 125000 110000 120000 135000 115000 127000 132000 0 0 0 120000 0 95000
360 Bayo 0 50000 50000 50000 40000 50000 46000 50000 0 0 55000 25000 0 70000
PS3 Tek 0 105000 100000 120000 115000 150000 98000 95000 0 150000 120000 130000 0 110000
360 Tek 0 30000 40000 50000 25000 45000 46000 43000 0 40000 38000 60000 0 50000
PSP P3P 0 125000 120000 100000 115000 110000 87000 78000 0 90000 80000 0 0 0
DS 4WoL 0 105000 140000 100000 90000 140000 158000 170000 0 0 120000 0 0 0So apparently the DSi is taking on water, and needs more advanced graphics capabilities to stop the hemorrhaging it's experiencing to Apple.
http://www.reuters.com/article/CMPTRS/idUST31442220091027
If the DSi is in trouble, everything else must be Atari 2600 E.T.
http://www.reuters.com/article/CMPTRS/idUST31442220091027
If the DSi is in trouble, everything else must be Atari 2600 E.T.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:With no parser and my excel skills (lack of), I can only hope just a few people predict (like the 7 right now with 5 incomplete)
Though its easy later to see as a webpage and copy them here in code tags...just the usernames mixing a bit...
If you guys like it, I suppose I could do it weekly, its a small timesink if kept this smallCode:Actual Kuro Chris Road schuelma jj984jj Orgen Grampasso 0 duckroll Y2Kev onken PuppetMaster V_Arnold PS3 Bayo 0 125000 110000 120000 135000 115000 127000 132000 0 0 0 120000 0 95000 360 Bayo 0 50000 50000 50000 40000 50000 46000 50000 0 0 55000 25000 0 70000 PS3 Tek 0 105000 100000 120000 115000 150000 98000 95000 0 150000 120000 130000 0 110000 360 Tek 0 30000 40000 50000 25000 45000 46000 43000 0 40000 38000 60000 0 50000 PSP P3P 0 125000 120000 100000 115000 110000 87000 78000 0 90000 80000 0 0 0 DS 4WoL 0 105000 140000 100000 90000 140000 158000 170000 0 0 120000 0 0 0 Difference 0 540000 560000 540000 520000 610000 562000 568000 0 280000 413000 335000 0 325000 PS3 Bayo 0 125000 110000 120000 135000 115000 127000 132000 0 0 0 120000 0 95000 360 Bayo 0 50000 50000 50000 40000 50000 46000 50000 0 0 55000 25000 0 70000 PS3 Tek 0 105000 100000 120000 115000 150000 98000 95000 0 150000 120000 130000 0 110000 360 Tek 0 30000 40000 50000 25000 45000 46000 43000 0 40000 38000 60000 0 50000 PSP P3P 0 125000 120000 100000 115000 110000 87000 78000 0 90000 80000 0 0 0 DS 4WoL 0 105000 140000 100000 90000 140000 158000 170000 0 0 120000 0 0 0
Wow, thanks for the effort!
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, i totally see what you mean, thanks for the good explanation!Jokeropia said:
I think that i was more focused on how the LTD would be with Uncharted 2 instead of seeing how Uncharted 2's legs might be based on the first day to first week increase. But in afterthought i see that the discussion was more about how the legs for Uncharted 2 will be. I didnt mean to get too much away from the main point of the discussion, i am sorry :\ Speaking of legs, i wonder how the 2nd week sales of Uncharted 2 will be (unless the game have fallen out of the Famitsu Top 30 of course) Ye, that is true. Yep, i am looking forward to the 2009 top 100/500 to see if how much different games have increased in salesJokeropia said:
Ye, i guess it depends on what game and game genre it is. Some game franchises and some games genres might be more frontloaded than others. Like you say, Final Fantasy is very frontloaded while Brain Training sells more steady for a much longer period of time (speaking of Brain Training, why hasnt Nintendo made a new BT yet? It's been a while since i have seen BT in the japanese charts at least, but maybe it still sells under the radar?).Jokeropia said:
But i was thinking if the first day numbers are higher, then it must sell more copies to gain the same percentage increase. For example, Killzone 2 went from 20k to 43k, which is an increase of 115%. If Killzone 2 had sold 30k the first day instead of 20k, it would have to sell 64.5k instead of 43k to have a 115% increase. That is 21.5k copies more, and it might be more difficult to sell 64.5k compared to 43k. While a game that sells 1k the first day just needs to sell 1.15k copies to achieve a 115% increase, which might be an easier accomplishment. Do you see what i mean? If a game has low first number, i think that it might have a bigger chance to have a higher percentage increase (it depends on which game it is though). 115% is a very high increase though, but i this was just an example
But there are exceptions to this though, some games that have a high first day sales and still have a high percentage increase, like GTA4 for example as you mentioned earlier. And as said, i guess it also depends on which games that are being sold and/or which game genre there is (some game genres might in general be more frontloaded compared to other game genres, like the examples you mentioned with Final Fantasy, Monster Hunter, Brain Training etc.)
EDIT: I added some text.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Added botticus and a special guest star, Spiegel, who just got to me in another board. He's back in less a than month btw. I'll forward his predictions so they are set in stone too.
Spiegel said:
MarzipaNMOS
Member
random guesses:
PS3 Bayonetta 90k
360 Bayonetta 65k
PS3 Tekken 100k
360 Tekken 20k
PSP Persona 3P 110k
DS 4WOL 90k
PS3 Bayonetta 90k
360 Bayonetta 65k
PS3 Tekken 100k
360 Tekken 20k
PSP Persona 3P 110k
DS 4WOL 90k
charlequin
Banned
Man, I never do this prediction derby thing. :lol
[PS3] Bayonetta - 140k
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 100k
[PSP] Persona 3 P - 80k
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden - 120k
[360] Bayonetta - 40k
[360] Tekken 6 360 - 30k
[PS3] Bayonetta - 140k
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 100k
[PSP] Persona 3 P - 80k
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden - 120k
[360] Bayonetta - 40k
[360] Tekken 6 360 - 30k
AdventureRacing
Member
Might as well put in a random guess.
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega) - 170K
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 45k
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 150k
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 60k
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) 165k
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) - 130k
I think a lot of my predictions are quite high but might as well try something different.
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega) - 170K
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 45k
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 150k
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 60k
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) 165k
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) - 130k
I think a lot of my predictions are quite high but might as well try something different.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
schuelma said:
If he keeps playing silly buggers, next time will be forever.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega) - 130K
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 38k
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 168k
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 44k
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) 185k
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) - 115k
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 38k
[PS3] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 168k
[360] Tekken 6 (Namco Bandai) - 44k
[NDS] Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) 185k
[PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) - 115k
THE Caffeinated
Member
Go Go Random Guess
[PS3] Bayonetta - 125k
[360] Bayonetta - 30k
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 92k
[360] Tekken 6 - 27k
and lets say 106k Final Fantasy Gaiden
[PS3] Bayonetta - 125k
[360] Bayonetta - 30k
[PS3] Tekken 6 - 92k
[360] Tekken 6 - 27k
and lets say 106k Final Fantasy Gaiden
Mr.Wuggles
Neo Member
lol @ people putting their 4WoL predictions over 100k.
even SE doesn't seem to have much confidence in the title - it was somewhat hidden at their TGS booth, iirc.
even SE doesn't seem to have much confidence in the title - it was somewhat hidden at their TGS booth, iirc.
BishopLamont
Banned
So it seems like SE isn't giving 4WOL a good push, how come? It seems to be exactly the kind of game the FF remakes' audience would gobble up and they have all done great numbers. It just seems so counter intuitive to make such a game and let it bomb.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:With no parser and my excel skills (lack of), I can only hope just a few people predict (like the 7 right now with 5 incomplete)
Though its easy later to see as a webpage and copy them here in code tags...just the usernames mixing a bit...
If you guys like it, I suppose I could do it weekly, its a small timesink if kept this smallCode:Actual Kuro Chris Road schuelma jj984jj Orgen Grampasso 0 duckroll Y2Kev onken PuppetMaster V_Arnold PS3 Bayo 0 125000 110000 120000 135000 115000 127000 132000 0 0 0 120000 0 95000 360 Bayo 0 50000 50000 50000 40000 50000 46000 50000 0 0 55000 25000 0 70000 PS3 Tek 0 105000 100000 120000 115000 150000 98000 95000 0 150000 120000 130000 0 110000 360 Tek 0 30000 40000 50000 25000 45000 46000 43000 0 40000 38000 60000 0 50000 PSP P3P 0 125000 120000 100000 115000 110000 87000 78000 0 90000 80000 0 0 0 DS 4WoL 0 105000 140000 100000 90000 140000 158000 170000 0 0 120000 0 0 0 Difference 0 540000 560000 540000 520000 610000 562000 568000 0 280000 413000 335000 0 325000 PS3 Bayo 0 125000 110000 120000 135000 115000 127000 132000 0 0 0 120000 0 95000 360 Bayo 0 50000 50000 50000 40000 50000 46000 50000 0 0 55000 25000 0 70000 PS3 Tek 0 105000 100000 120000 115000 150000 98000 95000 0 150000 120000 130000 0 110000 360 Tek 0 30000 40000 50000 25000 45000 46000 43000 0 40000 38000 60000 0 50000 PSP P3P 0 125000 120000 100000 115000 110000 87000 78000 0 90000 80000 0 0 0 DS 4WoL 0 105000 140000 100000 90000 140000 158000 170000 0 0 120000 0 0 0
Wow. I can't believe all of those games bombed.
Um, none of those numbers are final. It's just that the sales figures for those games haven't yet been published.AniHawk said:
Though they might as well not bother publishing them at all, since Actual is above and beyond the GAF aggregate in terms of predictions, and if he's saying 0, we might as well just agree with him and call it a day. Bomba indeed.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
bayonetta is apparently super short, according to people on 2ch. take this into account when considering predictions beyond week one.
test_account
XP-39C²
Famitsu.com has posted their Top 10 now
http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1228944_1796.html
1. Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver
2. Wii Fit Plus
3. Tomodachi Collection
4. Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire/Blizzard
5. Rune Factory 3
6. Forza Motorsport 3
7. FIFA 10 (the PS3 version)
8. Shin Sangoku Musou 5 Special
9. Wii Sports Resort
10. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves
http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1228944_1796.html
1. Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver
2. Wii Fit Plus
3. Tomodachi Collection
4. Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire/Blizzard
5. Rune Factory 3
6. Forza Motorsport 3
7. FIFA 10 (the PS3 version)
8. Shin Sangoku Musou 5 Special
9. Wii Sports Resort
10. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
rf3 above rf1 but below rf2.
forza3 above forza1 and forza2 ltds.
forza3 above forza1 and forza2 ltds.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Bayonetta bomba. The curse of Platinum games/Clover Studios continues
Edit: whoops, thought that it came out last week :lol
Edit: whoops, thought that it came out last week :lol