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[schuelma]

Was the original M&S a seller right off the bat? I want to say it wasn't but achieved success over time.

It had a first week of 67K and LTD of 594K.

 

[gogogow]

What does PS3 have?

Dragon Ball Raging Blast, R&CF2 and FFXIII

 

[Porkepik]

FF XIII ?????

 

[Yoboman]

Dragon Ball Raging Blast, R&CF2 and FFXIII

Is Assassin's Creed 2 this year in Japan?

 

[donny2112]

Lowering the price by 10,000 yen of a 25,000 yen product is not realistic. Nintendo needs some room for further pricecuts.

They should've dropped the price long before Oct-09 on Wii in Japan. Think of it as "making up" for the price drop they should've had in 2008.

 

[schuelma]

What does PS3 have?

Next week it has a new Dragon Ball but that is basically it until FF13 12/17. Will be interesting to see hardware sales for that period. It's obviously not going to sink to 10K or anything, but I'm curious to see whether it will stay at >30K or fall off a bit.

 

[Somnid]

IIRC, it did something like 60k first week and a couple of hundred lifetime. Will check...

EDIT:

67k FW / 594k LTD, according to Famitsu. I doubt the Winter Olympics version will match it, but it might give some indication as to the legs of the title.

So it got to about roughly 9x its first week. I suppose this one could do decently if it follows that trend. But yeah I doubt it comes anywhere near the first.

 

[gogogow]

Is Assassin's Creed 2 this year in Japan?

Yes, 3rd of Dec.

 

[schuelma]

So it got to about roughly 9x its first week. I suppose this one could do decently if it follows that trend. But yeah I doubt it comes anywhere near the first.

The legs are even more impressive considering the first day was around 15K.

 

[Yoboman]

Yes, 3rd of Dec.

The first did well in Japan IIRC

 

[markatisu]

So it got to about roughly 9x its first week. I suppose this one could do decently if it follows that trend. But yeah I doubt it comes anywhere near the first.

I can't remember has SEGA said what they think the LTD will be, I cannot believe for a second they even expect it to come close, its the Winter Olympics and people don't even watch the real one in numbers that compare to the Summer.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Next week it has a new Dragon Ball but that is basically it until FF13 12/17. Will be interesting to see hardware sales for that period. It's obviously not going to sink to 10K or anything, but I'm curious to see whether it will stay at >30K or fall off a bit.

?? December is huge for the whole industry. If PS3 is going to sink, it'll happen in November.

 

[gogogow]

The first did well in Japan IIRC

82.459, pretty good for a Western release.

There's also COD MW2 of course

So the more interesting games for the PS3 will be:
-DB Raging Blast
-R&C Future 2
-Assassin's Creed 2
-COD MW2
-FFXIII

 

[schuelma]

The first did well in Japan IIRC

The first one had a first week of 37K/LTD 82K, which is good for a western developed titled but nothing too noteworthy overall. Of course if it follows the pattern of Uncharted 2 it could do pretty well.

 

[schuelma]

?? December is huge for the whole industry. If PS3 is going to sink, it'll happen in November.

Well its clearly not going to sink that hard even if there aren't a ton of releases in November. The past 8-9 weeks have made that clear.

 

[Yoboman]

Next week it has a new Dragon Ball but that is basically it until FF13 12/17. Will be interesting to see hardware sales for that period. It's obviously not going to sink to 10K or anything, but I'm curious to see whether it will stay at >30K or fall off a bit.

We are approaching the holidays, I'd be surprised to see any hardware falling compared to the previous week soon

 

[Truespeed]

Anyone who would have thought hard about how the PS3 Slim could sell should not be surprised at its increased sales over the last 2.5 months. Making fun of the PS3's sales was so fashionable last summer that I feel it clouded a lot of reasonable judgment as to its potential.

The PS3 returning to its original model sales or marginally higher was always an unreasonable expectation for 2009 and early 2010. I don't know why it was widely accepted myself. I said the PS3 Slim was gonna be huge and so far that hasn't been a mistaken assumption.

Amazing what a price cut will do, isn't it. It will become the top selling console for 2009 and PS3 software is dominating the sales charts. FFXIII and GT5 should bump up the install base to about 5-6 million in 2010. I'm going to miss those GC comparisons, though.

 

[Yoboman]

The first one had a first week of 37K/LTD 82K, which is good for a western developed titled but nothing too noteworthy overall. Of course if it follows the pattern of Uncharted 2 it could do pretty well.

The 360 version did well as well, and got a good margin of the sales because the PS3 version was delayed

 

[Yoboman]

Amazing what a price cut will do, isn't it. It will become the top selling console for 2009 and PS3 software is dominating the sales charts. FFXIII and GT5 should bump up the install base to about 5-6 million in 2010. I'm going to miss those GC comparisons, though.

Is it that surprising? Redesign worked wonders for the DS. PSP really took off with the Slim as well

 

[Pureauthor]

Is it that surprising? Redesign worked wonders for the DS. PSP really took off with the Slim as well

Uh, in Japan the DS was already printing money well before the Lite. US is another story, though, although frankly I attribute it to Nintendo of America not having quite finished strangling the GBA to death yet.

 

[Yoboman]

Uh, in Japan the DS was already printing money well before the Lite. US is another story, though, although frankly I attribute it to Nintendo of America not having quite finished strangling the GBA to death yet.

I seem to recall a rocky start for DS and it was at the point of DS Lite where it really turned the tables for good. Though Nintendogs a few months beforehand had started that trend

 

[GCX]

I seem to recall a rocky start for DS and it was at the point of DS Lite where it really turned the tables for good. Though Nintendogs a few months beforehand had started that trend

DS Phat still holds the record for selling the most units during one week in Japan. DS was already in fire before Lite (and Nintendogs came out almost a year before Lite).

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I seem to recall a rocky start for DS and it was at the point of DS Lite where it really turned the tables for good. Though Nintendogs a few months beforehand had started that trend

Nintendogs came out almost a full year before the DSL, and was indeed the beginning of the DS's reign of terror. It was closer to the DS Phat's launch than it was to the DSL's launch, though.

The "rocky start" for the DS amounted to about two or three months.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Well its clearly not going to sink that hard even if there aren't a ton of releases in November. The past 8-9 weeks have made that clear.

No deffinately not. I was honestly expecting a bit of a drop in November though. I dont' know whether that'll happen or not, but once we're in Dec, Holiday is in full swing and sales should be up across the board I would think.

 

[markatisu]

Amazing what a price cut will do, isn't it. It will become the top selling console for 2009 and PS3 software is dominating the sales charts. FFXIII and GT5 should bump up the install base to about 5-6 million in 2010. I'm going to miss those GC comparisons, though.

Dominating is not quite the word I would use to describe PS3 software sales

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Dominating is not quite the word I would use to describe PS3 software sales

If notching four spots of the top 30 isn't domination, I don't know what is.

 

[toypop]

Was COD:MW2 already released in Japan? Any expectations for it?

Domestic release aka "localized-but-maybe-censored-by-SE" version will be out in December.
10 bucks cheaper Asian/US version were released this week in various import shops, even people made lines for it.
A lot of fans gonna buy imported copy 30 days earlier. It may hurt the sales of official release.
But it "only" 30 days (unlike COD4 and Gears2), I believe most of potential buyers can wait official localized version.

 

[EXGN]

82.459, pretty good for a Western release.

There's also COD MW2 of course

So the more interesting games for the PS3 will be:
-DB Raging Blast
-R&C Future 2
-Assassin's Creed 2
-COD MW2
-FFXIII

RGG3 Best(Dec 10 I think) could post decent sales as well, especially with all the new PS3 owners.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If notching four spots of the top 30 isn't domination, I don't know what is.

It's been a pretty dominant 4th recently.

Famitsu Software Pie

September 28 - October 4
DS: 45.4
Wii: 22.6
PSP: 20.1
PS3: 8.2
PS2: 2.2
X360: 1.5
Other: 0.1

October 5-11
DS: 54.5
Wii: 20.1
PSP: 14.7
PS3: 7.4
PS2: 1.9
X360: 1.3
Other: 0.1

October 12-18
DS: 44.7
Wii: 20.6
PSP: 14.6
PS3: 12.7
PS2: 4.2
X360: 3.0
Other: 0.1

October 19-25
DS: 44.6
Wii: 18.2
PSP: 16.9
PS3: 11.4
X360: 6.3
PS2: 2.5
Other: 0.1

I may be really off base here, but my impression isn't that Nintendo has supported the DS that much better first party wise.

Nintendo/Pokémon DS games through October 2007: 78
Nintendo/Pokémon Wii games through October 2009: 41
Bigger difference than I would've guessed, too.

 

[onken]

And that is certainly possible. If NSMB Wii isn't a system mover then I think Dragona's chart might be very apt. Nintendo is clearly banking a lot on it and like I said in a previous post I don't see much in 2010 yet.

Also, GT5 moving to March might be good for Sony in the long run. Releasing it in Dec. might very well have given PS3 the 2009 YTD crown, but IMO having such a strong release in early 2010 could lead to a better overall situation.

Yeah totally agree.

 

[Totobeni]

Amazing what a price cut will do, isn't it. It will become the top selling console for 2009 and PS3 software is dominating the sales charts. FFXIII and GT5 should bump up the install base to about 5-6 million in 2010. I'm going to miss those GC comparisons, though.

for Japan and to have a "healthy" userbase , PS3 still need steady stream of titles for Q1/2 of 2010 not just the one per quarter huge AAA titles like GT5 , and I don't see much of them announced in last few weeks , after EoE , Last Rebellion and Ar tonelico III there is nothing so far.

 

[onken]

for Japan and to have a "healthy" userbase , PS3 still need steady stream of titles for Q1/2 of 2010 not just the one per quarter huge AAA titles like GT5 , and I don't see much of them announced in last few weeks , after EoE , Last Rebellion and Ar tonelico III there is nothing so far.

EoE in Jan
SO4i in Feb
GT5 in Mar
RGG4 in Apr
LR/ArcTon May/Jun I guess
I think FF14 is supposed to hit in summer

e~ RE5 waggle edition is due March too though I doubt it will set the world on fire

 

[Mets39]

for Japan and to have a "healthy" userbase , PS3 still need steady stream of titles for Q1/2 of 2010 not just the one per quarter huge AAA titles like GT5 , and I don't see much of them announced in last few weeks , after EoE , Last Rebellion and Ar tonelico III there is nothing so far.

SO4, Yakuza 4 and the Alternative version of RE5. Not too bad i think

Edit: owned

 

[thestopsign]

for Japan and to have a "healthy" userbase , PS3 still need steady stream of titles for Q1/2 of 2010 not just the one per quarter huge AAA titles like GT5 , and I don't see much of them announced in last few weeks , after EoE , Last Rebellion and Ar tonelico III there is nothing so far.

They have End of Eternity, Ryu Ga Gotuka 4?, Star Ocean 4 International and Gran Turismo 5 coming out in the first quarter. Versus the Wii's Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles, Tatsunoko vs Capcom: Ultimate All-Stars, and MadWorld. One of the line-ups is much better than the other.

 

[schuelma]

They have End of Eternity, Ryu Ga Gotuka 4?, Star Ocean 4 International and Gran Turismo 5 coming out in the first quarter. Versus the Wii's Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles, Tatsunoko vs Capcom: Ultimate All-Stars, and MadWorld. One of the line-ups is much better than the other.

To be fair we know nothing about Nintendo's lineup past December.

 

[Testicular Sound Express]

I fail to see how the more cinematic version of Bayonetta is considered the inferior one.

more cinematic doesn't make the textures less blurry or fix the framerate. You know, that parts that affect actual gameplay

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

more cinematic doesn't make the textures less blurry or fix the framerate. You know, that parts that affect actual gameplay

Oh, I don't know, I see the framerate dips as a kind of reward.

 

[John Harker]

Is there any noticeable comparison between the amount of buzz/hype/promotion in Japan when Dragon Quest Swords launched vs. The Crystal Bearers?

I know FF is severely over saturated and DQ is the larger franchise anyway, but you figured with the increased install base, SQ would want to push it to at least come CLOSE to DQS LTD

Considering DQS must have had a comparative shoe string budget...

 

[Regulus Tera]

No chance in hell Sin and Punishment 2 is going to at least sell out of its first shipment, right?

 

[distantmantra]

Is Assassin's Creed 2 this year in Japan?

Yep. December 3rd. It has the dreaded Z rating, though.

 

[ethelred]

To be fair we know nothing about Nintendo's lineup past December.

To be fair, neither does anyone in Japan, and that's one of many reasons why no one cares and why most new Wii games are released to sub 50k sales.

And honestly, come on now. We've been dancing this dance long enough to know what Nintendo's lineup is next year. They'll release one major game early in the year -- say, April or Marchish -- and then one big core game at the end of the year along with the Big New Fad Peripheral-Based Casual Game. Throughout the remainder of the months, they'll release a bunch of stuff like, say, ohhhh I don't know... Dynamic Slash, Cosmic Smash, and their ilk, all of which will debut to nonexisitant launches.

Iwata can keep saying "next year will be different," but until that's backed by concrete announcements and action, I'm not sure why anyone would keep believing him. It's like willingly embracing your inner Charlie Brown to Iwata's Lucy playact. Maybe this time the football will stay in place, right?

 

[gerg]

To be fair, neither does anyone in Japan, and that's one of many reasons why no one cares and why most new Wii games are released to sub 50k sales.

And honestly, come on now. We've been dancing this dance long enough to know what Nintendo's lineup is next year. They'll release one major game early in the year -- say, April or Marchish -- and then one big core game at the end of the year along with the Big New Fad Peripheral-Based Casual Game. Throughout the remainder of the months, they'll release a bunch of stuff like, say, ohhhh I don't know... Dynamic Slash, Cosmic Smash, and their ilk, all of which will debut to nonexisitant launches.

Iwata can keep saying "next year will be different," but until that's backed by concrete announcements and action, I'm not sure why anyone would keep believing him. It's like willingly embracing your inner Charlie Brown to Iwata's Lucy playact. Maybe this time the football will stay in place, right?

By your own logic, we don't know that Nintendo will do exactly the same as this year. Until our belief is back up by concrete announcements and action, I'm not sure why we should believe that Nintendo isn't determined to try and make things work in Japan.

I understand your pessimism in regards to Nintendo's prior history, but what you're essentially denying is Nintendo's desire to make money as well as Iwata's competency as a leader, and doing both of which I find laughable.

 

[ethelred]

By your own logic, we don't know that Nintendo will do exactly the same as this year. Until our belief is back up by concrete announcements and action, I'm not sure why we should believe that Nintendo isn't determined to try and make things work in Japan.

Okay, Charlie Brown.

 

[schuelma]

To be fair, neither does anyone in Japan, and that's one of many reasons why no one cares and why most new Wii games are released to sub 50k sales.

And honestly, come on now. We've been dancing this dance long enough to know what Nintendo's lineup is next year. They'll release one major game early in the year -- say, April or Marchish -- and then one big core game at the end of the year along with the Big New Fad Peripheral-Based Casual Game. Throughout the remainder of the months, they'll release a bunch of stuff like, say, ohhhh I don't know... Dynamic Slash, Cosmic Smash, and their ilk, all of which will debut to nonexisitant launches.

Iwata can keep saying "next year will be different," but until that's backed by concrete announcements and action, I'm not sure why anyone would keep believing him. It's like willingly embracing your inner Charlie Brown to Iwata's Lucy playact. Maybe this time the football will stay in place, right?

I'm skeptical as well. My only point was that in the very limited discussion of beginning of the year 2010 we don't know anything about Nintendo's lineup.

I pretty much agree with you- based on the latest investor Q&A the strategy seems to be the same- make a huge hit that has a long tail to rekindle interest. The only possible difference I see in 2010 is I assume they will at least release one of those big titles earlier than the end of June.

 

[gerg]

Okay, Charlie Brown.

Even if we have never seen a chameleon change its colours, we would be wrong in believing that they never will.

My posts aren't meant to come off as some kind of unbridled love of Nintendo and its senior management. I don't seek to deny Nintendo's previous mistakes, and neither that they have made stupid decisions - be it out of arrogance, misunderstanding or a simple misreading of the market - but you're being disingenuous if you advocate a cautious outlook with pessimism.

What you're saying is paramount to "Guys! Don't jump to conclusions! We all know it will turn out like this!" Do you not see the self-contradictory nature of such a statement?

 

[Chris1964]

EoE in Jan
SO4i in Feb
GT5 in Mar
RGG4 in Apr
LR/ArcTon May/Jun I guess
I think FF14 is supposed to hit in summer

e~ RE5 waggle edition is due March too though I doubt it will set the world on fire

The last time we heard about Last Remnant things weren't looking for the PS3 version.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/06/24/last_remnant_ps3/

And what is ArcTon?

 

[u_neek]

Last Rebellion and Arc Tonelico III

Doubt Last Remnant will ever come out on the PS3.

 

[obonicus]

Yep. December 3rd. It has the dreaded Z rating, though.

Does CERO give reasons for its ratings?

 

[ethelred]

Even if we have never seen a chameleon change its colours, we would be wrong in believing that they never will. [...] you're being disingenuous if you advocate a cautious outlook with pessimism.

It's not pessimism, it's called a realistic weighting of probabilities. Everything can be looked at in such a fashion to figure out what the probability of certain outcomes is. It's only an idiot that insists that simply because something hasn't happened we can't draw any conclusions or engage in any sort of critical examination.

My posts aren't meant to come off as some kind of unbridled love of Nintendo and its senior management. I don't seek to deny Nintendo's previous mistakes, and neither that they have made stupid decisions - be it out of arrogance, misunderstanding or a simple misreading of the market

Then don't.

The last time we heard about Last Remnant things weren't looking for the PS3 version.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/06/24/last_remnant_ps3/

And what is ArcTon?

He's referring to Ar Tonelico 3 (by using an insipid form of abbreviation that really only works in Japanese, not English) and Last Rebellion (rather than Last Remnant, though the PS3 version of Last Remnant will sell about comparably to this dud).

 

[Durante]

Last Rebellion and Arc Tonelico III

If you mean Ar Tonelico, that will be out in January actually, not May/Jun.