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[zomgbbqftw]

3DS target wasn't to repeat the poor DS Japanese launch. It was meant to have a launch similar to Wii but it looks closer to DS than Wii.

This and next week's sales will show short term sales but right now investors don't look impressed with current 3DS performance.

Surely it is down to the price. At 25k JPY it is really expensive, more than a Wii or PSP while it has similar graphics to both. The 3D screen is not yet out of gimmick territory, the Wii had obvious non-gimmick potential, the 3D screen doesn't, well not that I can see anyhow...

 

[[Nintex]]

Investors were probably expecting more supply at launch because that was the argument that Nintendo had for the delay. Nintendo wasn't ready for the Wii craze and they sold about 370k at launch in Japan I believe. Investors were most likely expecting more growth compared to earlier hardware launches. That goes along with Nintendo's increasing R&D expendures coupled with empty DS/Wii release lists.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

So will Nintendo's strategic decision to launch the 3DS with no key first-party titles beyond Nintendogs (hardly a system-seller at this point) to benefit third parties be an issue for them in the short-term, then?

It's a shite situation for them - launch hard with major first-party support and give the machine an explosive start, and third parties are shut out and you cause issues further down the line. Launch soft and let third parties take the limelight and you risk slow uptake of hardware because the titles they're bringing aren't in the same league, or aren't demonstrating why people need this new console.

Interesting point. Really, most of the interesting software, 3rd party and 1st party, won't be ready until later. If there were better software titles it could've taken off better. I see games like Mercenaries and Zelda greatly boosting sales. (Mercenaries was supposed to launch before E3, right?) Other than that it might be a little while until the 3DS really takes off. I personally didn't see a whole lot of must have software titles at launch. I think the must have software will launch a little later with Revelations, Kingdom Hearts, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, etc. Pilotwings, Nintendogs, and Layton are interesting but I wouldn't call them must have titles for the system's price. Also despite Mercenaries, Zelda, Starfox and MGS3D being big quality franchises, I don't see them as absolute must haves because their ports.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Surely it is down to the price. At 25k JPY it is really expensive, more than a Wii or PSP while it has similar graphics to both. The 3D screen is not yet out of gimmick territory, the Wii had obvious non-gimmick potential, the 3D screen doesn't, well not that I can see anyhow...

The Wii succeeded because of its gimmick, not in spite of it.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

The Wii succeeded because of its gimmick, not in spite of it.

Yes, because there was non-gimmick potential, or at least some clear gameplay changing potential. 3D doesn't really add much in terms of additional gameplay experience.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Yes, because there was non-gimmick potential, or at least some clear gameplay changing potential. 3D doesn't really add much in terms of additional gameplay experience.

I think we're talking at cross porpoises here, the gameplay changing controller is the gimmick.

edit: oh hell, I'll link to this thread http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=420133

 

[AdventureRacing]

I'm a big nintendo fan but its hard to get excited for the 3DS with the current SW line up. Nintendo really need to get one of their big games onto it.

I know they want to encourage 3rd parties but surely one of the most important things 3rd parties will look at is HW sales. Nintendo need to make sure the 3DS sells well if they want 3rd parties on board.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I'm a big nintendo fan but its hard to get excited for the 3DS with the current SW line up. Nintendo really need to get one of their big games onto it.

I know they want to encourage 3rd parties but surely one of the most important things 3rd parties will look at is HW sales. Nintendo need to make sure the 3DS sells well if they want 3rd parties on board.

...worked well for the Wii, didn't it? ;-)

I think we're talking at cross porpoises here, the gameplay changing controller is the gimmick.

edit: oh hell, I'll link to this thread http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=420133

???

;-)

 

[gkryhewy]

ugh, doesn't look good

here's nintendo stock, check out the historical price for the last 5 days

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/NTDOY

Look at the 3-month number. NTDOY shares have been trading in this range forever, aside from a small 3DS launch bump which has now been given back. Essentially a good 3DS launch performance is already priced in.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

So will Nintendo's strategic decision to launch the 3DS with no key first-party titles beyond Nintendogs (hardly a system-seller at this point) to benefit third parties be an issue for them in the short-term, then?

It's a shite situation for them - launch hard with major first-party support and give the machine an explosive start, and third parties are shut out and you cause issues further down the line. Launch soft and let third parties take the limelight and you risk slow uptake of hardware because the titles they're bringing aren't in the same league, or aren't demonstrating why people need this new console.

Reading the Iwata asks interview, they considered the Major First party support to be the pre-installed soft.

My personal theory is they saw the ds launch, that a sold out start doesn't matter that much if you have things lined up in the near future. I'm also assuming they belived that just costing on 3d and ARG would be enough to last them untill killer first-party titles come out.

Starting with what I considered to be the re-launch of the system in May, things really look up.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

I think we're talking at cross porpoises here, the gameplay changing controller is the gimmick.

edit: oh hell, I'll link to this thread http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=420133

I think we're talking at cross porpoises here, the gameplay changing controller is the gimmick.

I think we're talking at cross porpoises here

talking at cross porpoises

 

[Chris1964]

Captain Smoker had posted this:

and we have this:

1997-2004 data look to match. Who's gonna start counting pixels?

 

[donny2112]

Look at the 3-month number. NTDOY shares have been trading in this range forever

Yeah, basically came to post this. Not to mention that this isn't even the direct Nintendo stock tracker. For that, you need to go to Nikkei. The other link would be the proxy service where you buy in the U.S. a piece of a Nintendo stock in Japan. It usually follows the Nikkei real value, but it's still dependent on individuals purchasing selling. Therefore, it doesn't have to follow 1:1. *shrugs*

 

[gkryhewy]

Yeah, basically came to post this. Not to mention that this isn't even the direct Nintendo stock tracker. For that, you need to go to Nikkei. The other link would be the proxy service where you buy in the U.S. a piece of a Nintendo stock in Japan. It usually follows the Nikkei real value, but it's still dependent on individuals purchasing selling. Therefore, it doesn't have to follow 1:1. *shrugs*

It follows pretty much 1:1, with the US open each morning determined by the nikkei close, adjusted for that day's exchange rate fluctuations.

 

[Dash Kappei]

I don't understand why people think Ocarina 3DS is going to be this huuuge KA, some incredible system seller.
I say it won't.

 

[donny2112]

It follows pretty much 1:1, with the US open each morning determined by the nikkei close, adjusted for that day's exchange rate fluctuations.

Yes, but then it fluctuates during the day while the Nikkei is closed. Just saying that every little up/down in a day is not necessarily related to anything that the real stock is doing.

 

[onken]

I think we're talking at cross porpoises here, the gameplay changing controller is the gimmick.

edit: oh hell, I'll link to this thread http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=420133

I know 2 people have already called you out on this, but if that wasn't deliberate... damn.

 

[frankie_baby]

I don't understand why people think Ocarina 3DS is going to be this huuuge KA, some incredible system seller.
I say it won't.

it'll be a big seller possibly the biggest seller on 3ds so far when it comes out but no it won't be a system selling killer app

 

[Chris1964]

I don't understand why people think Ocarina 3DS is going to be this huuuge KA, some incredible system seller.
I say it won't.

Killer appication no, big seller yes, especially outside Japan.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I'm really curious to see how 3DS will perform during its second week. Should we still expect big shortages or is the hype behind the handheld already fading?

 

[Lupin3]

I'm really curious to see how 3DS will perform during its second week. Should we still expect big shortages or is the hype behind the handheld already fading?

No shortages whatsoever in the Osaka area at least, that's for sure!

 

[Graphics Horse]

I know 2 people have already called you out on this, but if that wasn't deliberate... damn.

Don't worry I won't try it again, turned out to be a bit of a damp squid.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Predictions

[PSP] Fairy Tail: Portable Guild 2 (Konami) - 21,765
[PSP] Rurouni Kenshin - Saisen (Bandai Namco) - 33,353
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors 7 (Koei Tecmo) - 259.353

I'm really curious to see how 3DS will perform during its second week. Should we still expect big shortages or is the hype behind the handheld already fading?

As mentioned in this thread, There's no major shortages at specialty game stores. On the other hand looking at trade-in-prices for used systems, with a few special exceptions, the majority of stores have maintained a 23000~ level since launch day, so obviously can't say anything concrete just yet, wait a few more hours!

Game Archive Rankings
1. Final Fantasy 9 (1500yen)
2. Super Robot Wars Ex (1000)
3. Final fantasy 7 international (1500)
4. Super Robot Wars the Next 2 (800)
5. Super Robot Wars the Next 3 (1000)
6. Final Fantasy 8 (1500)
7. Castlvania X (600)
8. Parasite Eve (600)
9. Parasite Eve 2 (600)
10. Legend of Mana (600)

 

[LayLa]

I'm really curious to see how 3DS will perform during its second week. Should we still expect big shortages or is the hype behind the handheld already fading?

There is a third possibility, that they've finally learned how to match supply to demand?

 

[frankie_baby]

There is a third possibility, that they've finally learned how to match supply to demand?

Well I'd say shipping 1.5 million in the first 5 weeks should mean that's quite likely

 

[Spiegel]

Top 10

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201103/09041337.html

3DS launch games showing legs.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Top 10

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201103/09041337.html

3DS launch games showing legs.

From the text:

FFDD has a wide margin over the rest of the games.

Way of the Samurai 4 has about the same first week as way of the samurai 3.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Top 10

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201103/09041337.html

3DS launch games showing legs.

Indeed. Their positions, relative to each other, haven't changed either. Looking forward to seeing hardware sales!

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Top 10

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201103/09041337.html

3DS launch games showing legs.

Can someone post the position chart? I can't access that page (and, yes, I do know the Famitsu link trick ;-) )

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Can someone post the position chart? I can't access that page (and, yes, I do know the Famitsu link trick ;-) )

1. FFD
2. Way of the Samurai 4
3. Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle
4. Nintendogs+ cats
5. SD Gundam G Generation: World
6. Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity
7. Samurai Warriors: Chronicles
8. Digimon
9. Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition
10. STAR DRIVER

Just so I can get accused of more Nintendo Hate, japanese blogs have taken note of Kakaku's (like Japanese version of pricewatch) pricing on the black unit(Aqua unit is at regular price)

 

[Cygnus X-1]

1. FFD
2. Way of the Samurai 4
3. Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle
4. Nintendogs+ cats
5. SD Gundam G Generation: World
6. Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity
7. Samurai Warriors: Chronicles
8. Digimon
9. Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition
10. STAR DRIVER

Nintendogs + Cats will stay around for a lot of time I guess.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

SNIP

Thanks - looks like reasonable holds, position-wise, for the 3DS titles, but will be interesting to see what that means in real terms.

 

[Spiegel]

3DS 209,623
PSP 76,246
PS3 25,918
Wii 11,654
DSi LL 8,951
DSi 7,388
Xbox 360 2,353
PS2 1,750
PSP go 1,080
DS Lite 757

http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20110309055/

Dissidia - 286k

 

[GDGF]

Nice week two numbers

 

[confuziz]

3DS 209,623
PSP 76,246
PS3 25,918
Wii 11,654
DSi LL 8,951
DSi 7,388
Xbox 360 2,353
PS2 1,750
PSP go 1,080
DS Lite 757

http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20110309055/

Dissidia - 286k

3DS 209,623
3DS 209,623
3DS 209,623

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

3DS 209,623
PSP 76,246
PS3 25,918
Wii 11,654
DSi LL 8,951
DSi 7,388
Xbox 360 2,353
PS2 1,750
PSP go 1,080
DS Lite 757

http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20110309055/

Good numbers for PSP. Very poor numbers for Wii. I wonder if the Wii will dip under 10000 in the next 2 month.
Is the big fall for 3DS considered normal for second week launch hardware?

 

[Jonnyram]

PSP sales continue to impress.

 

[confuziz]

Good numbers for PSP. Very poor numbers for Wii. I wonder if the Wii will dip under 10000 in the next 2 month.
Is the big fall for 3DS considered normal for second week launch hardware?

What..did you expect it to do?

Edit, if I recall correctly, the 2nd week of DS was under 200k..?

 

[frankie_baby]

3DS 209,623
PSP 76,246
PS3 25,918
Wii 11,654
DSi LL 8,951
DSi 7,388
Xbox 360 2,353
PS2 1,750
PSP go 1,080
DS Lite 757

http://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20110309055/

Dissidia - 286k

not a bad 2nd week for 3ds (depends on shipment numbers though) already Nintencats and samurai warriors looking like the leggier launch games

 

[Road]

Is the big fall for 3DS considered normal for second week launch hardware?

It is.

And it is not even that big.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Is the big fall for 3DS considered normal for second week launch hardware?

...yes? 200k+ is a good second week performance, and with well over 500k sold Nintendo are on track for clearing their launch allocation in short order. If software holds up as well this week, it's looking like a solid launch so far.

Wii heading sub-10k? Really fascinated by this, as NCL seem not to give a toss about the performance of the system given their continued refusal to bundle or pricedrop or otherwise entice people in. Even bloody NoE have them beat here, doing official bundling with flavour-of-the-month titles like Just Dance 2...

 

[Serenity]

3ds doesn't seem to be cutting into psp sales.

 

[thefro]

Good numbers for PSP. Very poor numbers for Wii. I wonder if the Wii will dip under 10000 in the next 2 month.
Is the big fall for 3DS considered normal for second week launch hardware?

3DS's numbers = whatever Nintendo is able to ship out that week at this point.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

3ds doesn't seem to be cutting into psp sales.

True. That's the most interesting thing about these numbers IMO.

Then again, early adopters are sure to be made up mostly of the Nintendo loyalists so that would explain it I guess.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Is the big fall for 3DS considered normal for second week launch hardware?

Previous generation, first week to second week, Media Create.

DS: 468,883 to 198,892 -58%
PSP: 160,019 to 85,059 -47%
X360: 43,970 to 8,623 -80%
PS3: 81,639 to 42,099 -48%
Wii: 350,358 to 85,439 -76%

Big boys from the generation before that, first week to second week, Famitsu.

PS2: 630,552 to 154,245 -76%
GBA: 611,504 to 323,686 -47%

And now

3DS: 374,764 to 209,623 -44%

So it's even holding on a bit better than most. But not enough to really start making up ground on PS2/GBA/DS yet.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Previous generation, first week to second week, Media Create.

DS: 468,883 to 198,892 -58%
PSP: 160,019 to 85,059 -47%
X360: 43,970 to 8,623 -80%
PS3: 81,639 to 42,099 -48%
Wii: 350,358 to 85,439 -76%

Big boys from the generation before that, first week to second week, Famitsu.

PS2: 630,552 to 154,245 -76%
GBA: 611,504 to 323,686 -47%

And now

3DS: 374,764 to 209,623 -44%

So it's even holding on a bit better than most. But not enough to really start making up ground on PS2/GBA/DS yet.

Not to dreg up the old-thread, but how does 3ds's 2 day launch vs the rest being 4 day launch play into this analysis?

 

[donny2112]

Not to dreg up the old-thread, but how does 3ds's 2 day launch vs the rest being 4 day launch play into this analysis?

Nintendo usually launches hardware on Saturdays, so the GBA/NDS comparisons should be in the same timeframe.

 

[Neo C.]

Good 3DS numbers. It seems that pushing the launch to February was a good decision.

 

[onipex]

OOPssss bumped the wrong thread. Don't know what I was thinking.....

 

[Sage00]

This thread is 5 months old..