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[Aquamarine]

So if none of the trackers get every single store, does that mean that the number of sales is definitely more than what all the trackers report? Or do trackers do some kind of adjustment to account for stores they are missing?

That I'm not exactly sure about. I know that NPD directly receives sales data from 90-95% of retailers and estimates the remaining 5-10%.

However, I'm not exactly sure if the sales figures provided directly reflect the sales from ~3,000+ stores that agree to share their data with the trackers, or if they estimate the remaining market and factor that into their calculations.

The reason is because I've received conflicting reports on the exact methodology of their data.

I believe Famitsu sales are an aggregate of the 3,600 stores they receive data from. I'm not 100% sure about this, but it seems to indicate that from their f-ism website. Dengeki sales often end in "000" much more frequently than they should, so it seems most likely they combine real sales data with their estimates for the market. I'm not sure about Media Create.

 

[hiska-kun]

I've always believed all trackers estimate the rest.

 

[Aquamarine]

I always believed all trackers estimate the rest.

I thought that too, but when you look at the f-ism Piccolo sample from the Famitsu website, the sales from that sample match the first week sales that have been publicly reported over the years.

And it says "you will receive the consolidated aggregate of the market situation from about 3,600 stores."

 

[Tripon]

WiiU - 18k
Kirby - 60k



Time for NCL to add "Mobile game development" to their portfolio.

If you are making a prediction. Please label it as such.

 

[saichi]

WiiU - 18k
Kirby - 60k

is this a joke?

 

[Tripon]

is this a joke?

Hey, he could mean in one region of Japan. ;P

 

[pieatorium]

What could they possibly cheap out on if they wanted to make a cheaper redesign?

they didnt drop the price with the 2000 redesign so a drop sometime this year is likely

 

[Square2015]

The fuck? How are there no other attempts at the market at that kind of bullshit price?

I would seriously consider creating another sales tracker to compete with NPD, I'm taking courses in college now that might go towards this.

It would be great if those interested on the GAF could team up and create another video game sales tracker...

 

[Square2015]

That I'm not exactly sure about. I know that NPD directly receives sales data from 90-95% of retailers and estimates the remaining 5-10%

Where did you hear this? This has been discussed before on GAF the NPD gets 65% of the market and guesstimates the rest.

 

[Beant]

I would seriously consider creating another sales tracker to compete with NPD, I'm taking courses in college now that might go towards this.

It would be great if those interested on the GAF could team up and create another video game sales tracker...

What would you offer to the retailers that they don't already get from NPD?

On topic: Excited for new Media Create and NPD on back to back days!

 

[Square2015]

What would you offer to the retailers that they don't already get from NPD?

On topic: Excited for new Media Create and NPD on back to back days!

What does the NPD give them? They can't even get Wal-mart (biggest retailer).

You guys forgot the NPD used to have competition for awhile another tracker about a decade ago was tracking WEEKLY USA figures! I'll believe they were called PC data or something



I'll find some weekly charts...

 

[ZSaberLink]

Why does it matter if it's at launch or not? Capcom had three times as many titles released for the 3DS when it was the same age as the Vita current is. At the time, the 3DS was just a few months away from Monster Hunter 4 and Ace Attorney 5.

If you still want to talk about launch, let's remember that Resident Evil: Revelations was one of the big 3DS titles being pimped out before the 3DS was launched. The disparity was always huge: Capcom had decided to take risks on in only one of the two.

Is it really that odd that once Capcom moved Monster Hunter, one of their biggest franchises in Japan, to the 3DS, that they decided to primarily support the 3DS?

Also I'm pretty sure NPD now reports Walmart sales if I remember correctly.

 

[AmanoBuff]

they didnt drop the price with the 2000 redesign so a drop sometime this year is likely

I think this is definitely a given, and with the new PSO2 and SAO coming on March and April respectively, I think it will happen on one of those months.

What would you offer to the retailers that they don't already get from NPD?

On topic: Excited for new Media Create and NPD on back to back days!

Same here. My productivity will seriously decrease for a few hours.

 

[Beant]

What does the NPD give them? They can't even get Wal-mart (biggest retailer).

You guys forgot the NPD used to have competition for awhile another tracker about a decade ago was tracking WEEKLY USA figures! I'll believe they were called PC data or something



I'll find some weekly charts...

I will admit upfront I am no expert on NPD - but from this page https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/about-npd/retail-partners/ - it sounds like if they provide their sales information, NPD will provide them with total market information (basically they get all the information they get back but on a national level, so they cant just see what their closest competitor does, but the market as a whole).

I worked as an actuary at a large car insurance company and this is exactly how it worked for us. We provide our data, in return we get market data.

So outside of just moneyhatting retailers, I am not sure why they would ever give their information away to you/someone else. It just seems like this market naturally produces monopolies.

 

[1st Course]

What does the NPD give them? They can't even get Wal-mart (biggest retailer).

You guys forgot the NPD used to have competition for awhile another tracker about a decade ago was tracking WEEKLY USA figures! I'll believe they were called PC data or something



I'll find some weekly charts...

NPD track Walmart now I believe.

 

[Otakumegane]

Yeah it's getting quite costly for Nintendo to ignore the phone market. I wonder than what point does shelling out VC on iOS and Android looks to bring in more than the possible damage it could cause.

 

[Aquamarine]

Where did you hear this? This has been discussed before on GAF the NPD gets 65% of the market and guesstimates the rest.

Maybe like 3-4 years ago that was the case, but NPD is much more robust nowadays with working relationships with all major retailers.

The 2012 inclusion of Wal-Mart and Sam's Club was really the last major impetus to NPD's accuracy. Since they now directly receive weekly POS data, modern NPD data is ridiculously accurate. It really is 90-95% accurate these days.

Amazon.com, Buy.com, Costco.com, Staples.com, TigerDirect.com, Newegg.com, Best Buy, RadioShack, GameStop, Toys R Us, Wal-Mart, Sam's Club, Best Buy, K-Mart, Sears, Target, etc. are a small list of retailers that currently partner with NPD.

Major USA distributors like Synnex and GameWorld also have working relationships with the firm, along with major resellers.

It works like the following:

 

[Hero of Legend]

I can see Nintendo pulling a Sony at least and make very simplistic games on mobile devices, like Ratchet & Clank: Before the Nexus (which is/was free on Android and iOS) and is an endless runner, how random.

But Nintendo have two examples already available; Pokemon Say Tap and Pokedex for iOS. The former is free I think but JP only, the other is quite expensive for the whole package and the eShop version is definitely cheaper.

 

[Aquamarine]

When do we expect Week 2 numbers? Thanks.

7 hours from now.

 

[mankoto]

Disney Magic World now at 500k

 

[Otakumegane]

I can see Nintendo pulling a Sony at least and make very simplistic games on mobile devices, like Ratchet & Clank: Before the Nexus (which is/was free on Android and iOS) and is an endless runner, how random.

But Nintendo have two examples already available; Pokemon Say Tap and Pokedex for iOS. The former is free I think but JP only, the other is quite expensive for the whole package and the eShop version is definitely cheaper.

That is more Pokemon company than Nintendo though.

 

[Shengar]

I can see Nintendo pulling a Sony at least and make very simplistic games on mobile devices, like Ratchet & Clank: Before the Nexus (which is/was free on Android and iOS) and is an endless runner, how random.

But Nintendo have two examples already available; Pokemon Say Tap and Pokedex for iOS. The former is free I think but JP only, the other is quite expensive for the whole package and the eShop version is definitely cheaper.

Pokedex is just companion app. Also Nintendo musn't be the only who reponsible for its release on iOS. I bet the Pokemon Company pushes that after the popularity of Pokedex app before they took them down.

EDIT: Damn, beaten like a horse

 

[theprodigy]

7 hours from now.

wait I thought it was 7.5 hours from NOW
does it come out earlier than I thought?

 

[Aquamarine]

wait I thought it was 7.5 hours from NOW
does it come out earlier than I thought?

 

[metalslimer]

I'm interested if Vita can establish a more consistent presence going forward this year. Tomorrow's results will be interesting for many reasons.

 

[pieatorium]

I think this is definitely a given, and with the new PSO2 and SAO coming on March and April respectively, I think it will happen on one of those months.

ss delta, miku, samurai warriors and j stars in march too. Id guess a cut late feb before they hit

 

[ohlawd]

we're never going back to sub 10k weeks for Vita, are we

 

[Sandfox]

we're never going back to sub 10k weeks for Vita, are we

The only reason that happened before is because software dried up for a long time.

 

[ohlawd]

The only reason that happened before is because software dried up for a long time.

i know and Q1 looks packed.

 

[SmokyDave]

we're never going back to sub 10k weeks for Vita, are we

Never say never. Things were looking a bit ropey immediately prior to the holiday bump.

I'd like to think it won't drop below 10k, but I'm far from certain of it.

 

[theprodigy]

oh, so you guys just put up a thread an hour after release

slackers

 

[Bo130]

Is there anyone who can explain to me the differences between the Famitsu counts and the Media Create counts now. Does Famitsu include digital sales as well now? Also from before 2014?

 

[Busaiku]

Famitsu includes download cards.

 

[slaughterking]

And both MC and Famitsu offer only estimated sales numbers, which will always be different from each other.

 

[Aostia]

Spare toughts:

- Great result for Disney Magic Castle. Totally unpredictable to me, at the announcement.
- I'm imagining a sub 15K number for the Wii U, while I think that Vita will stabilize at a higher weekly base (not beast mode, but a "relative" beast mode, compared to its initial months on the market)
- Looking forward for a very solid debut for Kirby

 

[z0m3le]

Spare toughts:

- Great result for Disney Magic Castle. Totally unpredictable to me, at the announcement.
- I'm imagining a sub 15K number for the Wii U, while I think that Vita will stabilize at a higher weekly base (not beast mode, but a "relative" beast mode, compared to its initial months on the market)
- Looking forward for a very solid debut for Kirby

Hopefully the numbers for Wii U improve over last year, with the better lineup and lower price point (thanks to bundles especially) so 20k is what I would expect to see myself but I'm forever an optimist (those numbers being optimistic has shown just how badly the console was doing last year before the holidays)

 

[Aostia]

Hopefully the numbers for Wii U improve over last year, with the better lineup and lower price point (thanks to bundles especially) so 20k is what I would expect to see myself but I'm forever an optimist (those numbers being optimistic has shown just how badly the console was doing last year before the holidays)

you are right, but last week numbers were lower than last week 2012 numbers, so...it is true that the console now has better lineup and better value due to the bundles, but last year it was also a brand new system (it was what, its fourth week on the market?), so...I don't see this happening.

 

[hongcha]

Never say never. Things were looking a bit ropey immediately prior to the holiday bump.

That's partly because people were waiting for the 2000 model to release. Since that came out over 3 months ago Vita hasn't been under 20k a week. The 2000 saved the Vita

Spoiler

from the sub-10k doldrums

.

 

[SmokyDave]

That's partly because people were waiting for the 2000 model to release. Since that came out over 3 months ago Vita hasn't been under 20k a week. The 2000 saved the Vita

Spoiler

from the sub-10k doldrums

.

Has it really been that long?!

Huh. I could've sworn things were looking shakier just before xmas (not that 20k is particularly 'solid'). I really ought to be keeping the HW numbers on a spreadsheet somewhere.

The following image comes courtesy of a long-term study done by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and SMBC Nikko Securities, Inc., who shared it in a recent investor note.

It details the rise of the Japanese smartphone gaming industry and the decline of the feature phone markets.

Growth, growth, growth.

Games dwarf everything else, as expected. People really do like gaming on phones, shocker!

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

The tragic descent begins.

 

[Zalman]

That's partly because people were waiting for the 2000 model to release. Since that came out over 3 months ago Vita hasn't been under 20k a week. The 2000 saved the Vita

Spoiler

from the sub-10k doldrums

.

About that, I wonder why they haven't even announced it outside of Japan yet.

 

[Scum]

If you are making a prediction. Please label it as such.

is this a joke?

It's a prediction.

 

[Arzehn]

Not sure if news... while browsing Afreeca (Korean website) I ran into an ad for a Nintendo Direct, clicked it and went to http://www.nintendo.co.kr/nintendo_direct/index.html. Seems like there's a Nintendo Direct on the 17th (KST)? They usually do all languages at the same time, right? Wasn't sure if thread-worthy.

 

[Anth0ny]

Not sure if news... while browsing Afreeca (Korean website) I ran into an ad for a Nintendo Direct, clicked it and went to http://www.nintendo.co.kr/nintendo_direct/index.html. Seems like there's a Nintendo Direct on the 17th (KST)? They usually do all languages at the same time, right? Wasn't sure if thread-worthy.

Weird. Aren't they always on Wednesdays?

Might be a Korea only thing.

 

[Sendou]

Weird. Aren't they always on Wednesdays?

Nope

 

[Aostia]

Nope

nope...but it's a Korea only thing I think

 

[Glass Rebel]

So, is anyone expecting Japanese developers to return to consoles in a big fashion?

Not sure if news... while browsing Afreeca (Korean website) I ran into an ad for a Nintendo Direct, clicked it and went to http://www.nintendo.co.kr/nintendo_direct/index.html. Seems like there's a Nintendo Direct on the 17th (KST)? They usually do all languages at the same time, right? Wasn't sure if thread-worthy.

Either NoK jumped the gun or it's Korea only. We'll probably find out tomorrow.

 

[Aostia]

So, is anyone expecting Japanese developers to return to consoles in a big fashion?

Well, recent comments about PS4 could be lead in that direction, but in any case:
big production were still on home console last gen, thanks to PS360 success in the West.
mid-tier games for Japan crowd will probably still be split among 3DS, PS4/Vita, depending on the actual success that PS4 can face in that market

 

[Shengar]

So, is anyone expecting Japanese developers to return to consoles in a big fashion?

We'll see if the rumored Falcom game really is for the PS4.

 

[DrWong]

Not sure if news... while browsing Afreeca (Korean website) I ran into an ad for a Nintendo Direct, clicked it and went to http://www.nintendo.co.kr/nintendo_direct/index.html. Seems like there's a Nintendo Direct on the 17th (KST)? They usually do all languages at the same time, right? Wasn't sure if thread-worthy.

According to this tweet it's a 3DS Nintendo Direct: https://twitter.com/SalRomano/status/423111541571874816