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[lunchwithyuzo]

i'm sure 3DS will get it at some point, but don't expect capcom to go exclusive. The ngp is already getting its MH share, there's no way in hell capcom will devide that userbase when they could easily develop the real next MH for both platforms.

Wouldn't releasing on both in effect "divide" the fanbase though? That's why I'm not so sure MH will go multiplatform on handhelds, the game's driven by local co-op and being spread across two systems is going to confuse that. Maybe if Capcom can find a way to have 3DS and NGP owners play together, but that's something I just don't see happening.

I think it'll go to 3DS or NGP, but not both. And it'll probably depend on whichever platform holder decides to make it more worth their while between Nintendo and Sony.

 

[Sadist]

Not talking about exclusives. As many pointed out, it took the DS some time before it turned into the insane salesbeast. Main reasons were ofcourse software. At this point, I don't see a lot of games in the near future which will cause a surge in 3DS sales. I don't know how many units of both Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks sold but I'm guessing Ocarina of Time won't be the big game Japan's waiting for.

Same goes for Mercenaries 3D. Is Mercenaries (In RE 5 (Gold Edition) for instance) popular at all in Japan?

 

[Jokeropia]

The earthquake messed things around and psp was the only one affected because it's the only supply constrained hardware.

The earthquake affects the market in more ways than just delaying shipments.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

The earthquake affects the market in more ways than just delaying shipments.

Yeah, to say PSP was the only platform impacted seems pretty far off the mark. Logistics aren't everything.

 

[Spiegel]

The earthquake affects the market in more ways than just delaying shipments.

In these recent weeks?

I haven't noticed anything weird. Hardware sales are following usual drops or holding patterns.

 

[sillik]

Not talking about exclusives. As many pointed out, it took the DS some time before it turned into the insane salesbeast. Main reasons were ofcourse software. At this point, I don't see a lot of games in the near future which will cause a surge in 3DS sales. I don't know how many units of both Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks sold but I'm guessing Ocarina of Time won't be the big game Japan's waiting for.

Same goes for Mercenaries 3D. Is Mercenaries (In RE 5 (Gold Edition) for instance) popular at all in Japan?

DS had a couple of very strong software titles wich carried it through its initial rut, and undoubtly made 3rd parties froth at the mouth for potential sales. And then there was the fact that PSP wasn't a real contender at the time. Things are very different now, its really hard to speculate on anything really.

 

[makingmusic476]

The 3DS is priced too high (as high as their last home console!), its current software line up is too weak, and it hasn't done enough to differentiate itself from its predecessor.

Had it been priced $50/¥5,000 lower right out the gate, or had Pokemon Black/White been a launch title, I think the system would've hit the ground running.

What they need now is one of their usual system sellers to drive sales. Hopefully Mario Kart 3DS will hit before the end of the year.

If Sony manages to price the NGP similarly to the 3DS, and if they can hang on to franchises like Monster Hunter, I think they actually have a chance to take the lead in the handheld market in Japan.

 

[Jokeropia]

In these recent weeks?

I haven't noticed anything weird. Hardware sales are following usual drops or holding patterns.

Both software and hardware has taken quite a big hit since March 11 actually, and while the old systems recovered somewhat this week, it's not unlikely that the 3DS was affected to a greater degree due to reasons mentioned by FINALFANTASYDOG and Cosmonaut X.

I really think the earthquakes hurt Nintendo strategy this time more then a normal type of console's marketing would, folks simply weren't in the mood to show off their 3ds, and the topic got carried away.

At just the moment when you'd expect that a "viral" handheld would start to gain traction, the catastrophe in Tōhoku (and the ongoing nuclear crisis) threw everything up in the air. More established systems seem better able to cope on the strength of their back catalogue, but I'd argue that a new platform, with no real must-have games yet, is going to struggle.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

In these recent weeks?

I haven't noticed anything weird. Hardware sales are following usual drops or holding patterns.

Deku and FFDog already mentioned how the disaster sort of indirectly killed Nintendo's 3DS marketing scheme (viral, word of mouth), and it's probably already stunted things. Software's been underperforming all over the place.

 

[Jokeropia]

DS had a couple of very strong software titles wich carried it through its initial rut, and undoubtly made 3rd parties froth at the mouth for potential sales. And then there was the fact that PSP wasn't a real contender at the time. Things are very different now, its really hard to speculate on anything really.

PSP was quite a significant contender back then, actually. It beat the DS week to week for a few months during early 2005.

 

[Mariah Carey]

Ahahaha told ya this thing was going to bomb. Knock off $100 (or 10,000 yen or whatever) and we'll start talking.

Seriously though, not differentiating this more from the original DS is hurting it, too. Regardless of what's inside, it really is "a DS with 3D and a lot more expensive!" Nobody cares if the graphics look better.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Ahahaha told ya this thing was going to bomb. Knock off $100 (or 10,000 yen or whatever) and we'll start talking.

Seriously though, not differentiating this more from the original DS is hurting it, too. Regardless of what's inside, it really is "a DS with 3D and a lot more expensive!" Nobody cares if the graphics look better.

Its about the software - thats all.

 

[Onion_Relish]

The earthquake affects the market in more ways than just delaying shipments.

Is it fair to say that people are not buying it because they are either saving money just in case or they are donating too much time and money and effort to be concerned with those sorts of things? I would be really curious to see the regional breakdown of sales if that sort of data is available.

 

[Taiser]

| PSP | 51.095
| 3DS | 50.710

 

[Kandinsky]

Seriously though, I wonder what is the overall reason for the relatively tepid 3DS response thus far.

Price?

Anyways, Go PSP!

 

[Kilgore Trout]

disappoint.jpg[img][/QUOTE]
It's all good. The DS is only one of three pillars.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

That's a better start than I expected for FFIV Complete.

Can't say the same about Cladun 2. Nipponichi should either stop doing PSP releases or non-Disgaea releases...or actually, both would be best.

 

[Takao]

LOL NIS is dead

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Anyone acting like this is no big deal with the 3DS recent showing is fooling themselves, but it is way too premature to act like it's already a GCN level trainwreck, it might only be a Wii level trainwreck.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I kinda thought FFIVC would do better considering it's two games in one. Same for Gundam 3DS, which seems really low compared to the previous releases this gen. Even the Wii and 360 games did better.

Expected Claudun 2 to bomb hard, this isn't actually far off from what the original did.


Some Famitsu 1st week numbers for comparison (anyone know a link for a good MC database in english?):

Final Fantasy IV [PS] 119,000
Final Fantasy IV [WSC] 19,928
Final Fantasy IV Advance [GBA] 98,811
Final Fantasy IV [DS] 308,794

Final Fantasy Anniversary [PSP] 52,554
Final Fantasy II Anniversary [PSP] 33,979

Gundam Battle Royale [PSP] 53,669
Gundam Crossfire [PS3] 30,051
Gundam MS Sensen 0079 [Wii] 43,659
Gundam Operation Troy [360] 29,934
Gundam Battle Chronicle [PSP] 86,158
Gundam 00 [DS] 48,354
Gundam Battle Universe [PSP] 153,180
Gundam Senjou no Kizuna Portable [PSP] 84,933
Gundam Senki Record UC001 [PS3] 159,408
Gundam Assault Survive [PSP] 96,009

Cladun [PSP] 7,466

 

[Chris1964]

Finally I saw the obvious, how Cladun comes from Classic Dungeon.

Next week's releases {2011.04.07}

[3DS] Cubic Ninja (AQ Interactive)
[3DS] Kuukan Sagashimono Kei: Nouryoku Kaihatsu 3D Nou Training (IE Institute)

[NDS] Kimi ni Todoke: Communicate Feelings (Bandai Namco)
[NDS] Shin Hisui no Shizuku: Scarlet Fragments 2 DS (Idea Factory)
[NDS] Maru Goukaku: Shikaku Dasshu! 2011-Nendohan - Gyouseishoshi Shiken (Media5)
[NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade [Value Price] (Hudson)

[PSP] Earth Defence Force 2 Portable (D3 Publisher)
[PSP] Princess Frontier Portable (Alchemist)
[PSP] Are You Alice? (Idea Factory)
[PSP] Garnet Cradle Portable: Kagi no Himiko (Idea Factory)

[360] Bullet Soul (5pb.)
[360] Dragon Age: Origins - Awakening (Spike)

Some Famitsu 1st week numbers for comparison (anyone know a link for a good MC database in english?):

Reading the OP always helps.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

LOL NIS is dead

People keep saying this but it hasn't happened. I mean, didn't their stock skyrocket recently or something? Disgaea 4 didn't set the charts on fire either, though it did okay, but weren't investors expecting like double the sales? Has anything really happened as a result?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Reading the OP always helps.

lol, thank you.

downloading now!

 

[vicissitudes]

Too much doom and gloom with 3DS.

It's looking like it's stabilizing, if it continues to sell 40-50k during these slow months and then around the holiday season gets a 5,000yen price cut along with system sellers like Mario Kart 3DS and Animal Crossing, there's a good chance of replicating DS sales.

If it drops to 30k though I'd be worried.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Anyone acting like this is no big deal with the 3DS recent showing is fooling themselves, but it is way too premature to act like it's already a GCN level trainwreck, it might only be a Wii level trainwreck.

Oh believe me, very few people are not acting like it's a big deal.

Here is a system that the trade in price is down to 18,000-19,000 yen on average, yet stores are still getting swamped with used units, that means the system has less of a value then 19,000 yen for thoese that are trading it in.

But people proclaiming it's the end are missing the fact that Nintendo had a 3-layer(time wise) sales plan, which phase one got entirely jumbled up due to the biggest natural disaster in 100 years. Let's wait for the 2nd phase(May blockbuster games / online starts/ new features) till we start banging the death bell. They are also forgetting you could buy a used psp for 11,000 yen a year ago, yet now that same psp you can sell back for 13,000-14,000 yen.

With this, yes, April is going to be a sad month for sales.

 

[Chris1964]

Too much doom and gloom with 3DS.

It's looking like it's stabilizing, if it continues to sell 40-50k during these slow months and then around the holiday season gets a 5,000yet price cut along with system sellers like Mario Kart 3DS and Animal Crossing, there's a good chance of replicating DS sales.

If it drops to 30k though I'd be worried.

Possibilitty for price drop this year is 0.001%.

 

[boingball]

360 | 1.963 |
PS2 | 1.862 |

That's it Sony, Game Over. Time to admit defeat.

Unless, is the PS2 supply constrained?

 

[Jokeropia]

If it drops to 30k though I'd be worried.

DS dropped to 20-25k in February - March 2005. Not that it wouldn't be a cause of concern, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.

 

[Chris1964]

These are the only systems with comparable launch windows. Famitsu adjusted PS2 way up for the launch year.

Famitsu hardware

System 1: 2000 [PS2]  - 3.748.200 / 3.748.200
System 2: 2001 [GBA]  - 4.200.311 / 4.200.311
System 3: 2011 [3DS]  - 681.825 / 681.825

---------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |      System 1      |      System 2      |      System 3      |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|---------|----------|
|Week|  Weekly |    YTD   |  Weekly |    YTD   |  Weekly |    YTD   |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|---------|----------|
|  1 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  2 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  3 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  4 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  5 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  6 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  7 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  8 |         |          |         |          |         |          |
|  9 |         |          |         |          |  371.326|   371.326|
| 10 |  630.552|   630.552|         |          |  206.087|   577.413|
| 11 |  154.245|   784.797|         |          |  104.412|   681.825|
| 12 |   71.780|   856.577|  611.504|   611.504|         |          |
| 13 |  112.620|   969.197|  323.686|   935.190|         |          |
| 14 |  165.685| 1.134.882|  197.421| 1.132.611|         |          |
| 15 |  119.430| 1.254.312|  139.499| 1.272.110|         |          |
| 16 |   75.704| 1.330.016|   95.324| 1.367.434|         |          |
| 17 |   74.350| 1.404.366|  141.090| 1.508.524|         |          |
| 18 |   58.151| 1.462.517|  141.091| 1.649.615|         |          |
| 19 |   58.151| 1.520.668|   88.872| 1.738.487|         |          |
| 20 |   43.587| 1.564.255|   70.875| 1.809.362|         |          |
| 21 |   55.663| 1.619.918|   71.334| 1.880.696|         |          |
| 22 |   89.957| 1.709.875|   58.187| 1.938.883|         |          |
| 23 |   83.840| 1.793.715|   51.363| 1.990.246|         |          |
| 24 |   79.393| 1.873.108|   52.998| 2.043.244|         |          |
| 25 |   68.548| 1.941.656|   93.821| 2.137.065|         |          |
| 26 |   67.099| 2.008.755|   91.094| 2.228.159|         |          |
| 27 |   80.112| 2.088.867|   94.380| 2.322.539|         |          |
| 28 |   90.787| 2.179.654|   73.315| 2.395.854|         |          |
| 29 |   79.514| 2.259.168|   95.618| 2.491.472|         |          |
| 30 |   60.320| 2.319.488|   85.209| 2.576.681|         |          |
| 31 |   56.456| 2.375.944|   85.225| 2.661.906|         |          |
| 32 |   59.841| 2.435.785|   94.412| 2.756.318|         |          |
| 33 |   59.842| 2.495.627|   94.413| 2.850.731|         |          |
| 34 |   55.144| 2.550.771|   78.328| 2.929.059|         |          |
| 35 |   48.995| 2.599.766|   64.827| 2.993.886|         |          |
| 36 |   46.256| 2.646.022|   57.405| 3.051.291|         |          |
| 37 |   48.146| 2.694.168|   50.440| 3.101.731|         |          |
| 38 |   31.583| 2.725.751|   68.770| 3.170.501|         |          |
| 39 |   31.628| 2.757.379|   61.566| 3.232.067|         |          |
| 40 |   28.941| 2.786.320|   44.922| 3.276.989|         |          |
| 41 |   26.551| 2.812.871|   39.363| 3.316.352|         |          |
| 42 |   22.359| 2.835.230|   37.057| 3.353.409|         |          |
| 43 |   20.145| 2.855.375|   44.413| 3.397.822|         |          |
| 44 |   18.444| 2.873.819|   36.074| 3.433.896|         |          |
| 45 |   21.813| 2.895.632|   33.146| 3.467.042|         |          |
| 46 |   18.685| 2.914.317|   28.096| 3.495.138|         |          |
| 47 |   13.392| 2.927.709|   31.083| 3.526.221|         |          |
| 48 |    8.136| 2.935.845|   43.908| 3.570.129|         |          |
| 49 |    3.306| 2.939.151|   38.887| 3.609.016|         |          |
| 50 |   24.900| 2.964.051|  120.711| 3.729.727|         |          |
| 51 |   41.691| 3.005.742|  264.849| 3.994.576|         |          |
| 52 |   47.526| 3.053.268|  215.741| 4.210.317|         |          |
| 53 |   47.527| 3.100.795|         |          |         |          |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|---------|----------|
|    |   YTD   |    LTD   |   YTD   |    LTD   |   YTD   |    LTD   |
|----|---------|----------|---------|----------|---------|----------|
|    |3.748.200| 3.748.200|4.200.311| 4.200.311|  681.825|   681.825|
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[justjohn]

Sony is back. Long live the king

 

[donny2112]

Possibilitty for price drop this year is 0.001%.

GameCube-level train wreck. GameCube had a price drop after ~6 months in the U.S. (don't know if Japan saw a similar price drop, though).

 

[Cosmonaut X]

GameCube-level train wreck. GameCube had a price drop after ~6 months in the U.S. (don't know if Japan saw a similar price drop, though).

Surely you're not agreeing with Henny Penny farnham? I mean, this isn't the start Nintendo would have been anticipating, but it's no disaster.

 

[Chris1964]

GameCube-level train wreck. GameCube had a price drop after ~6 months in the U.S. (don't know if Japan saw a similar price drop, though).

2001 September 14 - ¥25.000
2002 June 3 - ¥19.800

 

[Canova]

Too much doom and gloom with 3DS.

It's looking like it's stabilizing, if it continues to sell 40-50k during these slow months and then around the holiday season gets a 5,000yen price cut along with system sellers like Mario Kart 3DS and Animal Crossing, there's a good chance of replicating DS sales.

If it drops to 30k though I'd be worried.

how is it stabilizing? nothing but drop week after week

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

3DS just need more games and needs them asap.

I'm just wondering if we'll start getting more multiplat titles between the 3DS, PSP and eventually the NGP. I think Blazblue is the first.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Just noticed everything went up this week except the 3DS. That's interesting.

Also, what do people think the odds are that the PSP hits 20 million LTD? I think it's insane that it might end up being very close to the PS2 LTD.

 

[Chris1964]

Just noticed everything went up this week except the 3DS. That's interesting.

Also, what do people think the odds are that the PSP hits 20 million LTD? I think it's insane that it might end up being very close to the PS2 LTD.

PSP (and DS to a degree) will never match PS2 success in Japan when with the same hw it has sold 1/4 of the sw.

 

[vicissitudes]

how is it stabilizing? nothing but drop week after week

Week 1: 374.764
Week 2: 209.623 (-44%)
Week 3: 96.463 (-54%)
Week 4: 61.394 (-36%)
Week 5: 50.710 (-17%)

That's how.

 

[donny2112]

Surely you're not agreeing with Henny Penny farnham? I mean, this isn't the start Nintendo would have been anticipating, but it's no disaster.

vicissitudes had the comment. Just pointing out the GameCube had a price drop this early (N64 dropped in price before launch in the U.S., and it was to launch at $250, too, I think). That would make a price drop this year qualify as a GameCube level train wreck (the comment, but not the context, was co-opted from farnham).

If I had to guess, I'd say that Nintendo sticks with this price and comes out with more software to try to prop sales (see: Wii with waiting to see if WSR would increase sales before price drop). If the sales still continued to be low, they'll just wait past the point of no return before dropping the price on 3DS to try to correct issues, like they did with Wii (What a great model to plan from!). On the plus side, maybe Wii 2 will be their DS this generation, with 3DS being their Wii. Nah, probably both will be their Wii this generation (What a great model to plan from 2!).

 

[Cosmonaut X]

vicissitudes had the comment. Just pointing out the GameCube had a price drop this early (N64 dropped in price before launch in the U.S., and it was to launch at $250, too, I think). That would make a price drop this year qualify as a GameCube level train wreck (the comment, but not the context, was co-opted from farnham).

Ah, fair enough.

If I had to guess, I'd say that Nintendo sticks with this price and comes out with more software to try to prop sales (see: Wii with waiting to see if WSR would increase sales before price drop). If the sales still continued to be low, they'll just wait past the point of no return before dropping the price on 3DS to try to correct issues, like they did with Wii (What a great model to plan from!). On the plus side, maybe Wii 2 will be their DS this generation, with 3DS being their Wii. Nah, probably both will be their Wii this generation (What a great model to plan from 2!).

Well, at the moment I'm going to be giving them the benefit of the doubt - it's clear they had plenty of time to prepare for the launch but chose to shift key software back, and bigger features like the eShop were moved back from launch too. I think FFD's reading of the situation is accurate - that Nintendo planned for a Wii-like launch, with a "viral" spread based on the 3D and limited built-in software, but were being careful to ensure they had the software to keep things moving later by staggering releases and moving bigger titles back.

Will be interesting to see what happens now.

 

[kamil]

Week 1: 374.764
Week 2: 209.623 (-44%)
Week 3: 96.463 (-54%)
Week 4: 61.394 (-36%)
Week 5: 50.710 (-17%)

That's how.

But all other hardware went up this week and 3DS is the only one droping. I think that sales in previous week were lower due to earthquake and we are seeing some kind of recovery in last week's data but in 3DS case it's still 17% drop.

 

[kame-sennin]

Seriously though, I wonder what is the overall reason for the relatively tepid 3DS response thus far.

The software strategy is markedly different from the DS and the early days of the Wii. Nintendogs, Brain Age, NSMB, Mario Kart, as well as Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Wii Play are all games that de-emphasized graphics and focused on pick-up-and-play gameplay (as well as multiplayer if possible). The 3DS is all about visuals and a lot of the upcoming big games are slower, less accessible, cinematic games from both first and third parties. The market is seeing that not only does the 3DS lack the software that they want, but that it's unlikely they'll get a software library that matches their tastes. That's probably why Nintendogs and Cats is doing poorly; customers aren't getting the impression that there will be upcoming software to complement the Nintendogs experience. I bought the DS lite for NSMB, but I ended up walking out the store with six games. The average Nintendogs or Mario Kart fan likely can't find six other games they would want to buy in the 3DS launch window.

Nintendo needs to turn their software strategy around and get it back to where it was in 2005-2007. That goes double for the Wii.

DKCR almost over 900k now, super duper impressive.

How long until it passes Galaxy 1/2?

 

[Izayoi]

3ds looks like a gamecubelevel trainwreck at this point

I just...

Somebody explain to me what goes through some people's heads.

It doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[vicissitudes]

I just...

Somebody explain to me what goes through some people's heads.

It doesn't make any sense to me.

Just ignore him...farnham needs to stick to the SC2 threads.

 

[wonderfuldays]

what nintendo needs is a must have title

for ds it was mario 64 and warioware at launch
for wii it was wii sports and wii play at launch


3ds does not have those titles.

i believe nintendo expected nintendogs to play that role in japan but it failed hard. i cant remember a franchise that went from 1 million + to sub 200k that quickly

Nintendogs proved that casual gamer won't buy a system at launch window.

 

[Jomjom]

Nintendogs proved that casual gamer won't buy a system at launch window.

I don't think it proves anything at all. It could just be because it really doesn't add anything to the previous Nintendogs and casual gamers don't see a reason to upgrade. Or it could be a million other reasons.

 

[onken]

In case you're wondering about the cross-platform bump, there was a bank holiday on Mon 21st, so lots of offers and deals floating about.

Of course! especially if you look at the phase 1 strategy of the 3ds marketing scheme - viral spread, something to show off to your friends.

The earthquake essentially put a complete stop to that.

Is this a joke post? I really can't tell anymore.

 

[donny2112]

Nintendogs proved that casual gamer won't buy a system at launch window.

They bought a DS for Nintendogs some in the launch window (i.e. first 6 months of release), but it was really Brain Training that got things rolling for consistently high weeks.

Can someone from Japan comment if there's a cultural "barrier" for impulse purchase at 15K/20K Yen like there is in the U.S. for $199 and below?

Sort of been operating under the impression that 25K Yen is just too high for an impulse buy for a single game, but it'd be good to get some in-Japan opinions.

Probably been talked about to some degree before, though.

Edit:
Speaking of Brain Training, maybe Brain Training 3DS with some use of the 3-D screen? Can the 3DS even be held reasonably in book-style?

 

[Ryoma-Echizen]

I guess the fairest conclusion to make about 3DS at this point (in all territories) is that this is what happens when you release a fairly expensive product outside the holiday season, without any killer-app software. It'll probably be selling fine by the holidays, though if OoT 3D doesn't significantly boost hardware sales, I'd start to worry.

So the little disaster that currently affects japan has nothing do with it? omg...

I can say one thing, the last priority for nintendo in the supply chain is japan right now, i dont see for the next few months 100K+ sales for a week. In EU and USA 3DS sells like hotcakes.

 

[apana]

I think the natural disasters must be part of the problem. You see, you have a lot more traditonal gamers on Sony consoles while Nintendo relies on traditional gamers mixed with expanded audience. The expanded audience is not focused on games right now so that's the main problem.