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[salpa]

It's less that, more expecting it to push software to the heights *it has pushed software to before*.

Where has it pushed software to before?

You mean three of the biggest names in Japan coming out and pushing software? Kingdom Hearts cannot even come close to comparing to Mario Kart or Mario games, each of which just barely pushed over what KH did in their first week.

The only game that really blew this number away was MH3G.

 

[Gaborn]

KH has a pretty dedicated fanbase, though, and so does RE. These games were supposed to bring the core gamers to the Nintendo handheld. They were the first 'console-like experience on the go' that 3DS has to offer. They both failed, with KH more so than RE.

Look I want 3DS to succeed, I own one, but it's pretty obvious that most of those 5 million people seem to be interested in Mario rather than any of these more core gaming experiences.

Wait... you're saying that MARIO isn't a core game? Now, see, that's just stupid.

 

[massoluk]

KH has a pretty dedicated fanbase, though, and so does RE. These games were supposed to bring the core gamers to the Nintendo handheld. They were the first 'console-like experience on the go' that 3DS has to offer. They both failed, with KH more so than RE.

Look I want 3DS to succeed, I own one, but it's pretty obvious that most of those 5 million people seem to be interested in Mario rather than any of these more core gaming experiences.

No sane people expected RE to light the chart on fire except may be Capcom.

 

[Mario007]

KH I'll give, but both KI and RE are kinda expected.

KI in particular had shitload of hype leading to it. It really ought to have broken the 200 000 mark in the first week, imo.

Wait, are poeple really expecting KH3DS to sell a million on a 5 million user base where only a fraction of said game fans have bought? Are you the same that expected Mh to sell 3 million?

No we're expecting it to do on par or slightly below the previous instalments. I mean even Re:Coded which was just a mobile phone game remake sold better in its opening week.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It's true, previous KH games had much better legs, especially on more mainstream platforms. Yes, I do consider the PSP a bad choice of platform for KH, because it is a huge international brand and the PSP was extremely limited outside of Japan in that aspect.

What I'm concerned about is that right now the 3DS looks like it might not have been a great choice either, and I'm not sure why that is that case. It should really have sold much more.

I totally agree. What's more worrying is Japan seems to be 3DS's strongest maket and the only one where it's fully supplanting DS. I'm not getting a good feeling about western KH3D sales...

 

[electroplankton]

I think RE did pretty okay for a first serious handheld entry, and I suspect if Capcom follows it up with a solid sequel in a timely matter it could do even better.

This.
Capcom should stress with such efforts on 3DS to build a fanbase and obtain better results. I'm pretty sure people who played Revelations have a good impression of the game, and a sequel will have the chanche to sell better.

Btw, Kingdom Hearts is a little disappointing; given the pretty young userbase, I'd say it'll have more legs than usual, but we'll see.

 

[duckroll]

Wait... you're saying that MARIO isn't a core game? Now, see, that's just stupid.

Different type of core. Mario doesn't have an ongoing storyline which makes barrier of entry hard for newcomers.

 

[milanbaros]

I think KH could be more of a reflection of the franchise than anything else.

Could someone with better skills than I have do a sort of quarterly HW sales analysis? Are Q1 HW sales a consistent indicator of annual sales? What does the Vita selling 202k suggest for the rest of the year? e.g. compared to other handheld Q1 multipliers where could we see Vita finishing the year? I hope its greater than 1 million or its deader than Gamecube.

 

[Hellsing321]

I think franchise fatigue is setting in for Kingdom Hearts. What makes matters worse is every game seems to come out on a different platform which makes it very expensive to be a KH fan.

 

[Mario007]

Wait... you're saying that MARIO isn't a core game? Now, see, that's just stupid.

Sorry probably should have been clearer. But I think we can all agree that there's a difference in audience between Mario and, say RE or KH.

 

[chickdigger802]

So how has the KH fan base been going these days? I assume some people still might enjoy this nonsense after 2. I'm just surprised this series still top charts after so many years since the previous numbered game and across nearly every system available.

 

[duckroll]

I don't know, the game might not even reach 1M worldwide, at least not anytime soon. I wouldn't expect that performance to be good enough to guarantee a sequel.

Well, I think that if Capcom is only interested in releasing million plus sellers in the RE series then they shouldn't bother with building a portable audience to begin with. But if they're interested in building a portable audience and expanding the reach of the series through more options for gamers, then I don't think it's foolish to invest in building up a fanbase for something even if it doesn't sell over a million.

 

[FoneBone]

Now I have to wonder about the reason behind KH3D underperforming.

Userbase, franchise fatigue, or some combination of the two... can't really see what else it could be.

 

[matmanx1]

Kingdom Hearts tanked. Thats a good bit lower than even I expected but I did make the point that I thought KH's sales would be cannabalized other software releases and that may indeed be a factor. I wonder how much better (if any) it would have done if it had released later in the year during an otherwise dead week or even Golden Week for maximum exposure.

For what it's worth I do expect the American result for DDD to be very good as we don't have the same plethora of software releases over here that the Japanese market has.

Konami has to be pretty pleased with that Pro Baseball opening. 170k across three platforms in opening week. Of course I have no idea what their expectations were. And a 2k bump for Vita perhaps helped by that very same game is welcome.

 

[Erethian]

No we're expecting it to do on par or slightly below the previous instalments. I mean even Re:Coded which was just a mobile phone game remake sold better in its opening week.

Nope, it did a lot worse.

[NDS] Kingdom Hearts Re:coded (Square Enix) - 95.505

 

[Brazil]

I think franchise fatigue is setting in for Kingdom Hearts. What makes matters worse is every game seems to come out on a different platform which makes it very expensive to be a KH fan.

Yeah, I think that may be the case. The fans are finally reaching their limit.

Time for Kingdom Hearts III, Nomura.

 

[Gaborn]

Different type of core. Mario doesn't have an ongoing storyline which makes barrier of entry hard for newcomers.

That's true, anyone can play a mario game versus some games where you need a backstory.

Sorry probably should have been clearer. But I think we can all agree that there's a difference in audience between Mario and, say RE or KH.

To the extent that it's a Nintendo game with Nintendo fans, yes, but it's one of the most generally beloved franchises out there for everyone, and particularly core gamers that have followed it from the beginning.

 

[botty]

Or maybe all of the fans have yet to buy a 3DS...

 

[Erethian]

Yeah, I think that may be the case. The fans are finally reaching their limit.

Time for Kingdom Hearts III, Nomura.

Problem with this is that KH3 will be on an entirely different system. One that has never had a KH game, and so they may potentially need to build the audience there too.

I mean it's nowhere near as bad as what Namco was doing with Tales before they sorted that mess out, but it seems like not sticking to a platform has started to hurt the brand. Or the willingness of the audience to immediately follow.

 

[Firemind]

All KH games are entwined? That's... not the brightest thing to do considering they're on various platforms.

 

[ShellyDeKiller]

It's true, previous KH games had much better legs, especially on more mainstream platforms. Yes, I do consider the PSP a bad choice of platform for KH, because it is a huge international brand and the PSP was extremely limited outside of Japan in that aspect.

What I'm concerned about is that right now the 3DS looks like it might not have been a great choice either, and I'm not sure why that is that case. It should really have sold much more.

What would be the best choice in your opinion then?

 

[duckroll]

Problem with this is that KH3 will be on an entirely different system. One that has never had a KH game, and so they may potentially need to build the audience there too.

Sounds like every other KH game though. Lol. The series is on almost as many platforms as entries.

What would be the best choice in your opinion then?

I don't know. I'm quite puzzled right now. Maybe the KH series has sort of driven itself against the wall because of how it has been managed.

 

[Meccanical]

Well the series is ten years old and still hasn't seen a significant conclusion, some people stop playing video games as they get older you know, of course the fanbase has shrunk.

 

[Mario007]

Nope, it did a lot worse.

[NDS] Kingdom Hearts Re:coded (Square Enix) - 95.505

my apologies for that, in that case, I was under the impression it did around 275k

 

[cw_sasuke]

Expected performance but still pretty bad. It's been a common theme with third party releases for 3DS, they're never disastrous but nothing's really done particularly good numbers when it comes to established series.

Dragon Quest Monsters will be the last big test for Square, methinks. They're probably already expecting Bravely Default to bomb.

I don't even ... really ?

 

[chickdigger802]

Well the series is ten years old and still hasn't seen a significant conclusion, some people stop playing video games as they get older you know, of course the fanbase has shrunk.

You also pretty much need to own every console besides 360 to stick with the series.

 

[Pureauthor]

It's extra puzzling because there's never really been any indication (in Japan) of the KH series falling out of favour with the audience or anything. Until now, at least.

 

[Kyoufu]

You also pretty much need to own every console besides 360 to stick with the series.

And PS3. And Wii.

Kind of amazed that it hasn't arrived on PS3 in any form. Mainline, spinoff or even HD remaster.

 

[Meccanical]

It's extra puzzling because there's never really been any indication (in Japan) of the KH series falling out of favour with the audience or anything. Until now, at least.

Well people seem to be falling out of favor with SE in general.

 

[Brazil]

Problem with this is that KH3 will be on an entirely different system. One that has never had a KH game, and so they may potentially need to build the audience there too.

We probably won't see Kingdom Hearts III out for at least 3 or 4 years. 'Til then, they'll have a lot of time to release some kind of HD Collection to build up the fanbase on the new consoles, which I'm guessing will get the game.

 

[Mario007]

I don't know. I'm quite puzzled right now. Maybe the KH series has sort of driven itself against the wall because of how it has been managed.

If i remember correctly DDD is a result of Nomura being specifically asked by Nintendo do make a 3DS game, which pretty much sounds like Nintendo moneyhatting this one.

 

[duckroll]

It's extra puzzling because there's never really been any indication (in Japan) of the KH series falling out of favour with the audience or anything. Until now, at least.

I don't think it has fallen out of favor really. But maybe promoting it as the prologue to KH3 might have been a mistake. It seemed like a good thing, but maybe it backfired because it basically assured fans that KH3 is coming and they can play that in a few years instead. Weird.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

What would be the best choice in your opinion then?

HD console multiplatform (360/PS3/WiiU). Lead in the audience with HD Remasters of KH and KH2 (sold separately!), then follow with KH3. Maybe even remaster BBS and 3D too. This should've been Nomura's plan years ago rather than flirting with handheld spinoffs and Versus.

 

[Erethian]

my apologies for that, in that case, I was under the impression it did around 275k

You're thinking of its lifetime sales.

 

[M3d10n]

Maybe Disney had some input in making KH on the 3DS? A Western PSP retail release in 2012 isn't exactly something that inspires confidence.

 

[Brazil]

I don't think it has fallen out of favor really. But maybe promoting it as the prologue to KH3 might have been a mistake. It seemed like a good thing, but maybe it backfired because it basically assured fans that KH3 is coming and they can play that in a few years instead. Weird.

I don't see the fanbase reacting negatively to that. I'm a fan, for example, and hearing Nomura say stuff like that really hyped me up for the game.

I mean, we all know very well that Kingdom Hearts III will eventually be released.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

If i remember correctly DDD is a result of Nomura being specifically asked by Nintendo do make a 3DS game, which pretty much sounds like Nintendo moneyhatting this one.

This is Nomura's 2nd 3DS game though.

 

[Erethian]

HD console multiplatform (360/PS3/WiiU). Lead in the audience with HD Remasters of KH and KH2 (sold separately!), then follow with KH3. Maybe even remaster BBS and 3D too. This should've been Nomura's plan years ago rather than flirting with handheld spinoffs and Versus.

You need to consider, though, whether KH is the kind of series that will sell enough copies to justify a big console effort.

I mean there are obvious reasons why the series has appeared solely on handhelds for a while now.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Maybe Disney had some input in making KH on the 3DS? A Western PSP retail release in 2012 isn't exactly something that inspires confidence.

Given the state of FFT0, I don't think SE needed Disney to arrive at the same conclusion. For a worldwide product PSP is just not a viable platform, and really hasn't been one for years now.

 

[mclem]

Where has it pushed software to before?

You mean three of the biggest names in Japan coming out and pushing software? Kingdom Hearts cannot even come close to comparing to Mario Kart or Mario games, each of which just barely pushed over what KH did in their first week.

Those titles generally have decent legs. Historically, KH hasn't. I'm wondering if it could *develop* legs with suitable nurturing, but I wouldn't count on it.

That said: No, I'm not expecting a Mario-scale success, but that does at least set an upper bound on what the *potential* is. An extra 100k would have looked a lot more appetising and would not really be an unreasonable hope.

 

[Spiegel]

Well, I think that if Capcom is only interested in releasing million plus sellers in the RE series then they shouldn't bother with building a portable audience to begin with. But if they're interested in building a portable audience and expanding the reach of the series through more options for gamers, then I don't think it's foolish to invest in building up a fanbase for something even if it doesn't sell over a million.

It's just that RE is a worldwide franchise (RE5 sold 1/5 in Japan) and while RE:R has performed okay/good in Japan, it has been selling very disappointingly in Europe and NA.

I can't imagine Japan is enough to support these kind of games.

 

[duckroll]

I don't see the fanbase reacting negatively to that. I'm a fan, for example, and hearing Nomura say stuff like that really hyped me up for the game.

I mean, we all know very well that Kingdom Hearts III will eventually be released.

I don't mean that it is a negative reaction, just that it might make some fans just apathetic to the release of KH3D. Bebpo was actually telling me that he felt that way, even though he bought it, and he didn't really feel a need to play it immediately right now. I brushed it off, but maybe he was on to something there...

 

[botty]

You need to consider, though, whether KH is the kind of series that will sell enough copies to justify a big console effort.

I mean there are obvious reasons why the series has appeared solely on handhelds for a while now.

Blame Versus XIII.

 

[Aostia]

As you know, I was expecting some problem fo KH3D, especially due to the fact that the brand was cowmilked with a lot of spinoffs on different platforms (ds, psp and mobile) without any real new main entry for years. this, plus the two previous episodes on DS that weren't so good (and this could affect the audience), plus the fact that it's coming out earlier in the lifetime of the console itself.
bbut the opening, not good, is better than GBA and second DS episode, not so below the first DS episode; a lot of people bought the game with the console (great HW bump for 3ds) and the console itself is very hot in this moment. So, I think that it could have some sort of legs and sell at least as 358/2 days did. And this would not be bad at all, considering the different issues I described.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

You need to consider, though, whether KH is the kind of series that will sell enough copies to justify a big console effort.

I mean there are obvious reasons why the series has appeared solely on handhelds for a while now.

If they could get back to PS2 level sales, I think it'd be worth it. That's a huge if, but I don't think it's necessairily an impossible goal if approached from the right angle. They also have 4 mainline entries they could cheaply remaster now, makng some easy money and helping to build that base.

I mean if we're going to financially justify HD Nomura games, try and justify Versus for me.

 

[Brazil]

I don't mean that it is a negative reaction, just that it might make some fans just apathetic to the release of KH3D. Bebpo was actually telling me that he felt that way, even though he bought it, and he didn't really feel a need to play it immediately right now. I brushed it off, but maybe he was on to something there...

SE should announce KH3 next week to give the fans a scare and boost sales, then.

But... Yeah. What you said actually makes some sense. "If it's like a prologue to the next game in the series, why would I want to play it years before that one's released? It can wait." - I can see people having thoughts along those lines.

 

[Fantastical]

Alright, time for KH3 SE.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It's just that RE is a worldwide franchise (RE5 sold 1/5 in Japan) and while RE:R has performed okay/good in Japan, it has been selling very disappointingly in Europe and NA.

I can't imagine Japan is enough to support these kind of games.

It's western sales are reflective of it's western handling. Even MHFU got a bigger western push than RER, if Capcom wanted this to be a million seller they should have treated it like a million seller.

 

[chickdigger802]

And PS3. And Wii.

Kind of amazed that it hasn't arrived on PS3 in any form. Mainline, spinoff or even HD remaster.

Oh yeah wii.

I guess KH is pretty much just a handheld series these days.

Will KH3 even be on ps3? By the time that comes around ps4 will probably be a few years old :/

 

[charlequin]

As expected userbase is a indeed a key factor for a series like Kingdom Hearts

That makes it sound like a problem that can be fixed by waiting out the 3DS as it grows its install base. I would say instead that Square-Enix's overall shittiness is a key factor for a series like Kingdom Hearts.

What I'm concerned about is that right now the 3DS looks like it might not have been a great choice either, and I'm not sure why that is that case. It should really have sold much more.

My instinct here is that the problem is that Square-Enix has dicked around with spinoffs for too long and people are starting to realize that there is never going to be a Kingdom Hearts 3.

At this point we're seeing franchise decline for pretty much all of SE's Japanese properties across all systems. There are individual explanations in each case, but I think the general explanation here is simpler.