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[frankie_baby]

Sorry, double post

It wasnt a double post its the board messing up putting posts out of order

 

[LordKano]

The Japanese Direct said that the physical version will come out in May as well.

Oh wow didn't know that. Is it also May 12 ?

 

[noshten]

Pre-orders aren't even open but on COMG Splatoon 2 is closing in on 3DS DQ with 31 points today.

 

[frankie_baby]

Its squid jumping fast and far, surely unthinkable but could it launch higher than either version of DQ11 does? Nah madness to think, is it?

 

[Mpl90]

Actually, I don't see anything stating how the retail release is in May as well

https://youtu.be/9ft7QVKVOrE?t=25m31s

This is the exact timeframe of the Direct when the release date was mentioned. I see no "5" in there. Also, straight from Nintendo topics

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7076478f-1e61-11e7-8f53-063b7ac45a6d.html

The last sentences (at least going by Google Translate) seem to indicate just that the retail release will come at a "later time".

Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

 

[Chris1964]

Its squid jumping fast and far, surely unthinkable but could it launch higher than either version of DQ11 does? Nah madness to think, is it?

A 700-800k opening puts PS4 version in danger.

 

[Ōkami]

It litreally just says the packaged version is coming out later.

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7076478f-1e61-11e7-8f53-063b7ac45a6d.html

All directs just said later, why would Japan be different.

 

[Vena]

Its squid jumping fast and far, surely unthinkable but could it launch higher than either version of DQ11 does? Nah madness to think, is it?

I'm actually more curious in the legs of the releases. If it weren't for the holiday timing, you'd think Nintendo just put it there with the mindset of "don't care, deal with it". Of course, DQXI is likely much more tilted to older demographics on nostalgia while Splatoon 2 is all across the spectrum from children to adults, so that is going to likely have a profound impact on the long-term legs (especially if Chris' initial barometer is on point).

Had Switch DQXI launched at the same time, the windows would have likely been changed around but without it they won't be, obviously, so now Splatoon 2 is going head-to-head with DQXI.

That said, Splatoon 2 will be in direct numeric competition with PS4 DQXI, but the 3DS DQXI is going to blow past both barring some sort of divine miracle.

 

[KtSlime]

Actually, I don't see anything stating how the retail release is in May as well

https://youtu.be/9ft7QVKVOrE?t=25m31s

This is the exact timeframe of the Direct when the release date was mentioned. I see no "5" in there. Also, straight from Nintendo topics

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7076478f-1e61-11e7-8f53-063b7ac45a6d.html

The last sentences (at least going by Google Translate) seem to indicate just that the retail release will come at a "later time".

Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

It litreally just says the packaged version is coming out later.

https://topics.nintendo.co.jp/c/article/7076478f-1e61-11e7-8f53-063b7ac45a6d.html

All directs just said later, why would Japan be different.

Sorry, I didn't have my contacts in and misread. 後日 could also be in May however.

 

[noshten]

I'd be surprised if by the end of the year Splatoon 2 isn't over 80% attach rate on the Switch. That's why I've said that the launch of the Switch is geared far more towards Splatoon than anything else in Japan. If a demo is able to get 80K a few weeks coinciding with the summer vacation is going to be very big hardware wise for the Switch. Nintendo would be fools not to have a massive amount of stock ready for the Japan Splatoon 2 launch and weeks that follow in the west July/August aren't really that important so those territories aren't likely to get as much stock for the Splatoon 2 launch as Japan.

Biggest summer since 2009 is coming.


Also regarding the DQ Switch version is it possible it's also held back due to localization efforts for the Switch?

 

[Chris1964]

First week comparisons between single versions aren't important.

If Splatoon 2 manages to give a battle with 3DS/PS4/NSW DQXI LTD that would be something interesting.

When Nintendo opens preorders for Splatoon 2 in Japan that will give a first sign for its demand.

 

[Ōkami]

1. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 61
2. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 22
3. [SWI] 1-2-Switch - 12
4. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars - 12
5. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands - 10
6. [PS4] Repkiss - 10
7. [PSV] Repkiss - 9
8. [PS4] NieR: Automata - 9
9. [PS4] Repkiss (Virtual Box) - 7
10. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 7
11. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX - 6
12. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 6
13. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 6
14. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5
15. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 5
16. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - 5
17. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 5
18. [PS4] LEGO Worlds - 5
19. [3DS] Miitopia - 5
20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 5

Preorders
[SWI] Mario Kart 8: Deluxe - 176
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Seach of Departed Time - 92
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X - 92
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia - 85
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Seach of Departed Time - 80
[SWI] Splatoon 2 - 78
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 74
[PS4] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition - 24
[3DS] Famista Climax - 24
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 23
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 22
[PS4] Tekken 7 - 19
[3DS] The Alliance Alive - 13
[SWI] Ultra Street Fighter II - 12

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'd be surprised if by the end of the year Splatoon 2 isn't over 80% attach rate on the Switch.

That's... a lot. About a half year in even Wii Sports was under 60%.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Splatoon 2 be crazy

 

[LordKano]

[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 23
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 22

Are pre-orders for the Switch version opened ? (if it's a simultaneous release)

 

[Mpl90]

Are pre-orders for the Switch version opened ? (if it's a simultaneous release)

The game had several delays; at first, it was going to be released on December 22nd, then February 2017, and now generic 2017. Those are preorders from back when the original release dates were announced. KT hasn't shared an actual new release date yet; I suppose that's when preorders for the Switch version will open.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Wonder if Splatoon 2 will be like 1, in which content came over months.


cause unlike Wii U, Nintendo seems to be like "These certain games are coming out year one come hell or high water."

Which is smart imo. Get ARMS, Splatoon, Pokemon*, Smash*, MK, and Mario out ASAP, even if they're not sequels.

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 15, 2017 (Apr 10 - Apr 16)

01./01. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom)
02./03. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
03./02. [3DS] Mario Sports Super Stars <SPT> (Nintendo)
04./00. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2017 [Konami the Best] <SPT> (Konami)
05./07. [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo)
06./06. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix)
07./05. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft)
08./21. [WiiU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
09./10. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn <ADV> (Sony Interactive)
10./08. [PS4] Warriors All-Stars <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
11./12. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo)
12./20. [NSW] Super Bomberman R <ACT> (Konami)
13./00. [PS4] Zero Escape: The Nonary Games <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
14./22. [WiiU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)
15./16. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
16./14. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive)
17./13. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <RPG> (Square Enix)
18./18. [3DS] Pokémon Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
19./19. [3DS] Pokémon Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
20./23. [3DS] Miitopia <SLG> (Nintendo)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 15, 2017 (Apr 10 - Apr 16)

01./00. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
03./03. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia <SLG> (Nintendo)
04./01. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo)
05./04. [3DS] Pro Baseball: Famista Climax <SPT> (Bandai Namco)
06./00. [NSW] ARMS <ACT> (Nintendo)
07./02. [PS4] Gundam Versus: Premium G (Sound Edition) <ACT> (Bandai Namco)
08./05. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X <ADV> (Bandai Namco)
09./07. [3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia (Limited Edition) <SLG> (Nintendo)
10./08. [PS4] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition <RPG> (From Software)

Rakuten Books Ranking Week 14, 2017 (Apr 03 - Apr 09)

***WARNING***

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are ONLY based on sales at Rakuten Books and does NOT count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking, since those sales are NOT added afterwards.

 

[hiska-kun]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 15 2017

01./01. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom)
02./02. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
03./03. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars <SPT> (Nintendo)
04./06. [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo)
05./07. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft)
06./04. [PS4] LEGO Worlds <ADV> (Warner Entertainment)
07./05. [PS4] Warriors Stars <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
08./08. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix)
09./10. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment)
10./13. [NSW] Super Bomberman R <ACT> (Konami)
11./12. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
12./16. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX <RPG> (Square Enix)
13./09. [PSV] Warriors Stars <ACT> (Koei Tecmo)
14./11. [PS4] Blue Reflection: Maboroshi ni Mau - Shoujo no Ken <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
15./15. [PSV] Accel World Vs. Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)
16./18. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo)
17./14. [PSV] Blue Reflection: Maboroshi ni Mau - Shoujo no Ken <RPG> (Koei Tecmo)
18./20. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional <RPG> (Square Enix)
19./19. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)
20./00. [PS4] Winning Eleven 2017 [Konami the Best] <SPT> (Konami)

 

[jrDev]

Damn at Zelda still at #2!!

 

[AquaWateria]

Oh look ARMS is ranked.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Not sure what this is exactly, but is this indication of some title that's now coming to Switch?

https://twitter.com/_AQUASTYLE/status/853563580720885760

 

[DecoReturns]

Really curious how splatoon 2 is gonna do in Japan.

Ranking alongside DQs and apparently preoders haven't been officially open.

150,000 was Splatoon opening week right? Wonder how big 2 will be.

 

[RoboGeorgeForeman]

Not sure what this is exactly, but is this indication of some title that's now coming to Switch?

https://twitter.com/_AQUASTYLE/status/853563580720885760

Looks like it's this game:&#12288;https://www.aquastyle.org/fushigentod_r/

And there's no actual plan for a release as of now.

Kinda half interested. Looks like a more story heavy Shiren game https://youtu.be/ApJJU8qxFfc.

 

[Ōkami]

Switch became a Vita so gradually we didn't even notice.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Looks like it's this game:&#12288;https://www.aquastyle.org/fushigentod_r/

And there's no actual plan for a release as of now.

Kinda half interested. Looks like a more story heavy Shiren game https://youtu.be/ApJJU8qxFfc.

Switch became a Vita so gradually we didn't even notice.

So... they have the game running on Switch, but it's more of a test as opposed to any plans of releasing it? I get why you'd do internal testing of it, but why would a company announce it publicly if they didn't mean to release it...

 

[RoboGeorgeForeman]

So... they have the game running on Switch, but it's more of a test as opposed to any plans of releasing it? I get why you'd do internal testing of it, but why would a company announce it publicly if they didn't mean to release it...

I think it's more that they don't have a targeted release date.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I think it's more that they don't have a targeted release date.

Oh ok that makes much more sense.

 

[d+pad]

I don't think that actually released yet.

Oh! Thanks for letting me know. I assumed it had at least released in Japan and just hadn't done well.

The original game sold more than 1 million copies worldwide and it was barely treated as a serious release. Give it a proper market campaign and budget and it could definitely sell more than 2 million copies worldwide.

The game is great and is what people want nowadays: open world, lots of exploration and freedom.

I think Fantasy Life 2 is in the works so we will see.

I was talking about only Japanese sales in my earlier comment. Sorry for not being clear about that. Outside of Japan, yes, I could see a proper Fantasy Life sequel doing quite well if marketed well.

Of course, at this point, such a sequel would have to be made for Switch, don't you think? I mean a 3DS-based Fantasy Life 2 could still sell well enough in Japan, but I'm not sure it'd do well outside of Japan.

 

[mao2]

So... they have the game running on Switch, but it's more of a test as opposed to any plans of releasing it? I get why you'd do internal testing of it, but why would a company announce it publicly if they didn't mean to release it...

Most probably to gauge interest as it will be shown at TGS. The tweet states that "we don't have plans to release it at this time", but of course that may change later.

 

[Chris1964]

This looks like another week of 40-50k for Switch. After Fire Emblem it's Mario Kart 8 Deluxe week. With Friday simultaneous worldwide releases the only first day info we might get is the size of initial shipment. Since this appears to be Nintendo's new strategy with every big Switch title, that will be a big problem for Japanese trackers and maybe forces them for additional first day reports or one day delay of the Friday one.

 

[Theswweet]

It looks like Switch is turning into the Vita 2 that I was REALLY hoping it might be. The future is looking very bright.

 

[jonno394]

Switch became a Vita so gradually we didn't even notice.

Yeah just came across this. Was going to post it, I know NISA have brought the PS4 version across, so hopefully when this gets released they do so as well!

 

[Mpl90]

Here's Gematsu's article on those tweets, it explains what's going on a bit better

http://gematsu.com/2017/04/touhou-g...-playable-switch-hakurei-jinja-reitaisai-2017

Also...no one who wants to talk about New Hot Shots Golf for PS4? We finally have a release date (August 31st)

 

[Rymuth]

Also...no one who wants to talk about New Hot Shots Golf for PS4? We finally have a release date (August 31st)

The bigger tragedy is that Star Ocean 3 took the top spot for JP Playstation store ranking and no one gives a hot shit

Do people not realize Valkyrie Profile 2 On PS4 has become increasingly real?

 

[Chris1964]

Hot Shots Golf is like Gran Turismo, not many care for it anymore.

 

[Cerium]

Here's Gematsu's article on those tweets, it explains what's going on a bit better

http://gematsu.com/2017/04/touhou-g...-playable-switch-hakurei-jinja-reitaisai-2017

Also...no one who wants to talk about New Hot Shots Golf for PS4? We finally have a release date (August 31st)

“A super rare Switch version, ported for technical verification, will be exclusively playable only at [Hakurei Jinja Reitaisai 2017]!,” the image in the company’s first tweet reads. “Please look forward to further news on future developments.”

The tweet itself adds that the Switch version of Touhou Genso Wanderer Reloaded is a “reference exhibit” and that “there are currently no plans for release.”

Read more at http://gematsu.com/2017/04/touhou-g...urei-jinja-reitaisai-2017#gw2OaLOqz3HwYXsw.99

 

[test_account]

Well, yes, that's why the discussion was about a baseline. That in its name implies expecting it to weather even bad weeks within spitting distance of 30K.

Fair enough. I was just wondering if anyone had ruled out the possibility of it dropping below 30k, and how long/much it would have to be below 30k to break the "baseline".

https://i.giphy.com/ffJiLLtCk5Am4.gif

Maybe used for promotion for the game itself, and showing of a Switch verison as a test port, maybe trying to gauge some interest.

 

[casiopao]

Hot Shots Golf is like Gran Turismo, not many care for it anymore.

Stop it Chris, u are going to trigger some people there.O_O

 

[Chris1964]

Nothing really interesting from sinobi regarding next week's releases, just notification that Nintendo ended Famicom Mini production after several restocks that all were sold out and could end with a higher LTD.

 

[Celine]

Nothing really interesting from sinobi regarding next week's releases, just notification that Nintendo ended Famicom Mini production after several restocks that all were sold out and could end with a higher LTD.

Goddamit Nintendo, I had such high hope per NES/Famicom Classic LTD...

 

[noshten]

So there is no major Japanese 3rd party game release dates for the Switch yet - Minecraft looking likely to be the first million selling 3rd party game on the system(in Japan).
I'm thinking 3-4 million in is like the minimum for Minecraft on the Switch this year WW. It's funny that Microsoft is ahead Japanese 3rd parties in getting a major game like Minecraft ported to the system.

 

[redblack85]

1. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 61
2. [SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 22
3. [SWI] 1-2-Switch - 12
4. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars - 12
5. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands - 10
6. [PS4] Repkiss - 10
7. [PSV] Repkiss - 9
8. [PS4] NieR: Automata - 9
9. [PS4] Repkiss (Virtual Box) - 7
10. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 7
11. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 ReMIX - 6
12. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 6
13. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 6
14. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5
15. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 5
16. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - 5
17. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 5
18. [PS4] LEGO Worlds - 5
19. [3DS] Miitopia - 5
20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 5

Preorders
[SWI] Mario Kart 8: Deluxe - 176
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Seach of Departed Time - 92
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X - 92
[3DS] Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia - 85
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Seach of Departed Time - 80
[SWI] Splatoon 2 - 78
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 74
[PS4] Dark Souls III: The Fire Fades Edition - 24
[3DS] Famista Climax - 24
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 23
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 22
[PS4] Tekken 7 - 19
[3DS] The Alliance Alive - 13
[SWI] Ultra Street Fighter II - 12

There are comparisons with DragonQuestIX numbers?

 

[frankie_baby]

So there is no major Japanese 3rd party game release dates for the Switch yet - Minecraft looking likely to be the first million selling 3rd party game on the system(in Japan).
I'm thinking 3-4 million in is like the minimum for Minecraft on the Switch this year WW. It's funny that Microsoft is ahead Japanese 3rd parties in getting a major game like Minecraft ported to the system.

Seriously mate gate yourself to the doctors you are obviously suffering some sort of switch fever

 

[KtSlime]

So there is no major Japanese 3rd party game release dates for the Switch yet - Minecraft looking likely to be the first million selling 3rd party game on the system(in Japan).
I'm thinking 3-4 million in is like the minimum for Minecraft on the Switch this year WW. It's funny that Microsoft is ahead Japanese 3rd parties in getting a major game like Minecraft ported to the system.

Which system will have a million seller first, the Switch or the PS4...

I think Splatoon 2 will still be the first million seller, even with Minecraft popular, it's going to take a bit of time till Switch reaches a million unites, and even then a 100% attach rate is impossible.

 

[thestopsign]

Seriously mate gate yourself to the doctors you are obviously suffering some sort of switch fever

I'm just going to let it play out.

 

[jonno394]

Which system will have a million seller first, the Switch or the PS4...

I think Splatoon 2 will still be the first million seller, even with Minecraft popular, it's going to take a bit of time till Switch reaches a million unites, and even then a 100% attach rate is impossible.

MK8D will sell 1m before Splatoon 2 imo.

 

[Aostia]

Which system will have a million seller first, the Switch or the PS4...

I think Splatoon 2 will still be the first million seller, even with Minecraft popular, it's going to take a bit of time till Switch reaches a million unites, and even then a 100% attach rate is impossible.

Isn't FFXV a million seller now? I agree that splatoon will likely be the first million seller on the console. Mk8 could ai at that milestone but probably later on the year

 

[noshten]

Seriously mate gate yourself to the doctors you are obviously suffering some sort of switch fever

Portable Minecraft with local multiplayer, releasing before the summer holidays have even started, on a platform with BotW and MK8D, on a device that is portable and allows 2 kids to play from the get go. Chances are Minecraft is about to hit the perfect system with perfect timing. The Mojang acquisition has allowed Microsoft to still stay relevant even as world wide sells of it's new console aren't as good as they'd hoped. In Japan Minecraft is pretty much the only "in" Microsoft has into the market - same could be said about other regions because it's difficult to envision a console like Scorpio doing well outside of the west.
More notably this is the first time Minecraft is hitting a Nintendo handheld - in both Japan and the West Vita wasn't compelling enough to end consumers for Minecraft to really gain the majority of the sales from the platform. This situation seems to be in no danger of occurring on the Switch. Minecraft is going to have a very good year in NPD/PAL/MC due to the Switch being a compelling piece of hardware that offers games like BotW/MK8D in the West and Splatoon 2 for Japan.


I called Minecraft selling over 200K on the Wii U in Japan people were asking why anyone would pay for something they could buy on the Vita for less:

18./30. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 3.419 / 309.565 <80-100%> (+23%)

Minecraft Wii U has off-tv play.

Not all kids in Japan own a Vita. Wii U Minecraft I'd think will end up being one of the top selling 3rd-party games on the Wii U and I'm not talking strictly Japan. Considering the laughable amounts 3rd Parties sell on the Wii U it won't take much to make it the top selling 3rd party game.
I don't even know if anything other than Hyrule Warriors selling more than a million and that's pretty much a Nintendo owned property. While I'd venture to guess that there hasn't been many games that sold more than 500K. That's not just because of the audience size, realistically there are few 3rd party games that are appealing to purchase on a Wii U. Minecraft has certain features that might make it an attractive purchase for an existing owner. I think it depends on integration with the gamepad - such outside of off-tv play hasn't been announced but if there is it might be a reason to buy it.
I'd say that lifetime Minecraft can do over 200K in Japan and I think it will do quite well elsewhere. The only reason Microsoft isn't publishing it on the 3DS is because of the 3DS limitation but the next handheld device Nintendo releases a Minecraft port will be there at launch, they might be working on it as we speak.

If there is anything NPD/Media Create has taught me is never doubt Minecraft

In any case summer vacation kid buys a Switch for Splatoon 2, what is the most likely second or third game that kid gets. I'd say it would be a game that has already sold a limited amount on PS4/Vita/Wii U but has never been on a Nintendo handheld before.

 

[thestopsign]

Portable Minecraft with local multiplayer, releasing before the summer holidays have even started, on a platform with BotW and MK8D, on a device that is portable and allows 2 kids to play from the get go. Chances are Minecraft is about to hit the perfect system with perfect timing. The Mojang acquisition has allowed Microsoft to still stay relevant even as world wide sells of it's new console aren't as good as they'd hoped. In Japan Minecraft is pretty much the only "in" Microsoft has into the market - same could be said about other regions because it's difficult to envision a console like Scorpio doing well outside of the west.
More notably this is the first time Minecraft is hitting a Nintendo handheld - in both Japan and the West Vita wasn't compelling enough to end consumers for Minecraft to really gain the majority of the sales from the platform. This situation seems to be in no danger of occurring on the Switch. Minecraft is going to have a very good year in NPD/PAL/MC due to the Switch being a compelling piece of hardware that offers games like BotW/MK8D in the West and Splatoon 2 for Japan.


I called Minecraft selling over 200K on the Wii U in Japan people were asking why anyone would pay for something they could buy on the Vita for less:

18./30. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 3.419 / 309.565 <80-100%> (+23.

The difference is, predicting Minecraft to sell over 200k on Wii U is completely reasonable. I don't think anyone would have called you crazy for saying that.