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[ZSaberLink]

Precisely, which is why I don't understand why it's been listed as one of the potential system-sellers before Splatoon 2 hits. Kids get games from their parents in most cases, or buy it with their own pocket money, and in both cases it's the physical version they get. Digital for kids is negligible, even in western countries where digital is common place (there's a reason that damn Minecraft keeps charting). Not sure when the retail version will hit, but based on the Wii U version, I'd say sometime in December.

If Famitsu estimates are correct though, there are a lot of digital Minecraft sales though right? Does digital sell systems though? I'm not sure really.

Holy shit and Nintendo did more with Wii U which is just as bad....

That's because Nintendo planned to have a successor for the Wii U. Sony clearly didn't with the Vita.

 

[extralite]

So a handheld incapable of natively running any PS4 titles that also doubles as a less effective and probably more expensive HMD?

I don't see why.

Why would you expect a Vita successor to run PS4 games? Something like that would be unprecedented.

And actually a handheld using the same screen would allow to lower cost on the regular PSVR, since the screen is the main cost driver. If the screen is shared between the two devices they can raise production and effectively lower production cost.

The handheld could be competively priced with Switch. Even decent handheld sales far eclipse what PSVR is currently selling. It would be a low risk way to increase production, and be a potential entry point to Playstation VR.

 

[Principate]

Precisely, which is why I don't understand why it's been listed as one of the potential system-sellers before Splatoon 2 hits. Kids get games from their parents in most cases, or buy it with their own pocket money, and in both cases it's the physical version they get. Digital for kids is negligible, even in western countries where digital is common place (there's a reason that damn Minecraft keeps charting). Not sure when the retail version will hit, but based on the Wii U version, I'd say sometime in December.

About online, pretty sure it'll be yearly passes (especially if price is as low as Kimishima said it would be).



Dubious Sony rumour from well-known Sony-biased affiliate blog ��

Doesn't Minecraft have a physical release in Japan in May.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Doesn't Minecraft have a physical release in Japan in May.

Nope, it's just digital.

Eh, Saturn is their most successful consumer system in Japan. Sega killed themselves by prematurely throwing that install base away for a DOA Dreamcast.

Except the Saturn sold like other garbage outside of Japan and because of that the Dreamcast managed to outsell the Saturn worldwide even before it was discontinued iirc.

 

[frankie_baby]

Doesn't Minecraft have a physical release in Japan in May.

No

 

[test_account]

I saw many people on sales-gaf talking about how the demo for Splatoon 2 brought sales up during that week and like everything I say this will be anecdotal, but I don't think that is the case. I am sure a few games did buy a Switch just for the testfire but I think they were the exception. I think it sold more that week because more were available. I think it had more to do with it being the last week of the financial year (and Nintendo wanting to boost the numbers) than for the demo. I could be wrong, but thats what it feels like to me.

I also think so, but i also think the testfire is a compelling reason to get it now. A lot of people are interested in Splatoon 2, so its (the testfire) is a selling point on its own. I also think that the testfire is one of those things that more youth/adults will know about, those who check forums and gaming news websites.

 

[LordRaptor]

Why would you expect a Vita successor to run PS4 games? Something like that would be unprecedented.

And actually a handheld using the same screen would allow to lower cost on the regular PSVR, since the screen is the main cost driver. If the screen is shared between the two devices they can raise production and effectively lower production cost.

The handheld could be competively priced with Switch. Even decent handheld sales far eclipse what PSVR is currently selling. It would be a low risk way to increase production, and be a potential entry point to Playstation VR.

Its not unprecedented, it is literally the value proposition offered by the switch - which would be its direct competition - that the console library is shared with the handheld library.

Even assuming this hypothetical device is as 'popular' as the Vita is, the manufacturing savings of sharing a screen between a handheld and PSVR - which would be, what, 2 million a year? - pale in comparison to the manufacturing savings of just making a deal with any phone manufacturer to sell those screens to them. The Xperia sells ~10 million a year comfortably, do you believe this hypothetical handheld will outpace that?

e: and that's assuming Sony even want to remain in the 'making screens' or 'making phones' or 'making components for phones' business.

 

[Principate]

No

Sorry, double post

Edit: Original post:

No it isn't, go back and watch the video.

It says "パッケージ版は5月発売予定"

Package version is scheduled for sale in May.

It might change, but that's just a baseless guess.

Saw this in the last thread. maybe they got it wrong.

 

[frankie_baby]

Saw this in the ;last thread. maybe they got it wrong.

They got it wrong

 

[Fiendcode]

Except the Saturn sold like other garbage outside of Japan and because of that the Dreamcast managed to outsell the Saturn worldwide even before it was discontinued iirc.

It didn't. It was 9.5m Saturn (ltd) to 8.6m DC (before Sega's announced exit) iirc.

 

[Principate]

They got it wrong

Fair enough then

 

[Jpop]

Now the Vita is successful?

Truly an interesting interpretation of facts and history.

 

[sinonobu]

Do you guys think remote-only Vita GO might work?

 

[Kyoufu]

Do you guys think remote-only Vita GO might work?

No.

 

[frankie_baby]

Do you guys think remote-only Vita GO might work?

If it could be made cheap enough i wouldnt be surprised if sony tried it, would probably sell like shit though

 

[Zedark]

Do you guys think remote-only Vita GO might work?

I don't see why a remote-only Vita would work at all when the Vita itself, that has this functionality, had no success whatsoever. It would have to be a very cheap unit you buy as an affordable PS4 accessory, but I don't think it has anything to do with Vita anymore at that point, and furthermore I don't think Remote Play through internet is an attractive feature (it is too limited in its applicability to be the sole application of the system).

 

[extralite]

Its not unprecedented, it is literally the value proposition offered by the switch - which would be its direct competition - that the console library is shared with the handheld library.

That's a bit of a jump. PSP didn't play PS2 games, Vita didn't play PS3 games. So what you were asking for is unprecedented.

Even assuming this hypothetical device is as 'popular' as the Vita is, the manufacturing savings of sharing a screen between a handheld and PSVR - which would be, what, 2 million a year? - pale in comparison to the manufacturing savings of just making a deal with any phone manufacturer to sell those screens to them. The Xperia sells ~10 million a year comfortably, do you believe this hypothetical handheld will outpace that?

e: and that's assuming Sony even want to remain in the 'making screens' or 'making phones' or 'making components for phones' business.

Sony are already making those screens for PSVR. They will soon increase production either way, to be able to lower the PSVR price. A handheld using the same screen could greatly increase the numbers for this particular screen, and in a low risk way.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Japan is the only region that really still matters for handhels.

As a per capita thing it's definitely strongest there, but the other regions are still kind of a big deal.

It would at least be Japan first, way first, if not Japan only.
Strategy cliff notes:
* make it cheap, to perpetually undercut Switch on cost and price
* make it fully BC and stay on the same architecture (cf PS4 Pro) so both users and devs can transition naturally

A cheap, powerful, near-Vita, near-PS4 machine seems like a lot of requirements and trouble to go to be one region's secondary portable.

 

[Kresnik258]

All serious aside another handheld wouldn't make sense since Sony barely supported the Vita after 3 years...I mean Japan sure but NA and EU(maybe some countries) no way.

Not even that really. Dec 2011 in Japan; Feb 2012 in the west. The last first-party (pure) game was Tearaway in November 2013, just under two years. If we expand that definition slightly, the last game a first-party studio were involved in was Freedom Wars in July 2014, about 2 and a half years.

They did bits and pieces after that like publishing Minecraft in Japan in March 2015 and making no-budget licenced games in Europe the same year, but all of this shows they'd left the platform long ago.

I would point to one thing - I don't think any of Sony's first-party projects for Vita were green-lighted after the console's launch. Killzone; Tearaway; Freedom Wars; Oreshika; Soul Sacrifice etc. were all in the conception and/or development phase before the console launched. After it launch, they handled no new projects other than contracting third parties to do things like port Borderlands.

They well and truly gave up on the console in its first year.

Which is why a Vita 2 is laughable really.

 

[Celine]

Except the Saturn sold like other garbage outside of Japan and because of that the Dreamcast managed to outsell the Saturn worldwide even before it was discontinued iirc.

Sega worldwide shipment/sales data (source: CESA White Paper).

Mega Drive/Genesis LTD: 30.75 million
Saturn LTD: 9.26 million
Dreamcast LTD: 9.13 million

 

[Rolf NB]

For a company as big as Sony, the royalties off 4 million pieces of software is not very substantial. Surly not enough to be worth the R&D costs associated with bringing a Japan-only successor to the Vita to market.

I may be misunderstanding the meaning of Dengeki Online Software FY2016. To frame it differently, it was slightly under half of PS4 software, and roughly a quarter of 3DS software.

Also, likely the only way to undercut the Switch price in a meaningful way would be to release a Vita 2 that has:
1. Similar specs to the Switch but with a lower price.
2. Lower specs than the Switch but a much lower price.
3. Higher specs than the Switch, and a lower price but with each unit sold at a loss.

The first 2 don't make much sense and the 3rd is crazy talk unless Sony really felt the 3rd time is the charm.

Definitely #2. The window of opportunity is exactly to be cheaper than Nintendo can feasibly be while post-3DS 3rd party commitments are still up in the air. That window will likely have closed within a year of inaction.

As a per capita thing it's definitely strongest there, but the other regions are still kind of a big deal.
http://garaph.info/shipmentcompare....reg-0/3DS_JP/sysreg-1/3DS_NA/sysreg-2/3DS_EU/

Great, then launch WW 6~12 months later.

A cheap, powerful, near-Vita, near-PS4 machine seems like a lot of requirements and trouble to go to be one region's secondary portable.

The idea of a near-PS4 handheld makes no sense to me and I'm not among those who argued in that direction.
As a spec outline I'd propose same screen resolution but with double to triple the GPU perf, modest bump in CPU perf, more RAM. No extra gimmicks. Potentially even reduced screen size. It would be all about sustaining a competitive, low price.

You're assuming Switch will naturally, inevitably lead the portable market. If it goes uncontested, it certainly will.
OTOH Nintendo took on certain compromises to make Switch a hybrid which all amount to avoidable costs, which opens up a price range opportunity below the Switch to a device that isn't a hybrid, doesn't need detachable controllers, doesn't need rumble etc.

===
I'll let the topic rest here. It seems the positions are well established

 

[Principate]

I may be misunderstanding the meaning of Dengeki Online Software FY2016. To frame it differently, it was slightly under half of PS4 software, and roughly a quarter of 3DS software.
Definitely #2. The window of opportunity is exactly to be cheaper than Nintendo can feasibly be while post-3DS 3rd party commitments are still up in the air. That window will likely have closed within a year of inaction.


===
I'll let the topic rest here. It seems the positions are well established

That's exactly what the vita currently is. Your saying that they should create create a worse selling vita to fill a hole the vita currently fills thus would absolutely cannibalise.

 

[thestopsign]

It sold 4 million units of software in its sixth year on the market with minimal / zero first-party investment. So ... software royalties?
Japan is the only region that really still matters for handhels. It would at least be Japan first, way first, if not Japan only.
Strategy cliff notes:
* make it cheap, to perpetually undercut Switch on cost and price
* make it fully BC and stay on the same architecture (cf PS4 Pro) so both users and devs can transition naturally

Why?

For reference the DS sold almost 28 million units of software in its sixth year and the PSP sold 9.6 million. Shit the Wii was basically unsupported by Nintendo in 2011 its sixth year and it still sold 8.8 million.

4 million units worth of royalties isn't worth much to Sony and isn't a good reason for a Vita 2. If Sony wants to make a Vita 2 they need to separate from the Switch and find a different market, even then it will remain a niche product world wide I think. I don't think it is worth the investment for them to divert software development resources from the PS4 at this point either.

 

[LordRaptor]

Sony are already making those screens for PSVR. They will soon increase production either way, to be able to lower the PSVR price. A handheld using the same screen could greatly increase the numbers for this particular screen, and in a low risk way.

Unless you are literally talking about a hardware revision to the Vita just to use a different screen - in which case my question is still "but why?" - you are hugely undervaluing the cost in bringing a new gaming device to market.

e: Because - again - if the motivation is just "more devices using this screen" they would be better served just putting that screen in an Xperia

 

[ZSaberLink]

Sega worldwide shipment/sales data (source: CESA White Paper).

Mega Drive/Genesis LTD: 30.75 million
Saturn LTD: 9.26 million
Dreamcast LTD: 9.13 million

Hm I remembered the Dreamcast hitting 10M in certain sources... Oh well. It still supports the claim that the Dreamcast sold better in the West than the Saturn right? Also, it does look like if they didn't discontinue the DC, it was on track to at least outsell the Saturn WW.

 

[13ruce]

Could a kid not just ask their parents to buy the game digital? If they watch youtube they will know where to get it. They just would need to ask their parents.

My uncle buys games for my nephews on the eshop if there is no physical version available. So it's certainly not impossible.

With mobile gaming being download centred i am sure kids can find out there is Minecraft on the eshop digitally and otherwise their parents can with a simple google search.

 

[Vinnk]

I may be misunderstanding the meaning of Dengeki Online Software FY2016. To frame it differently, it was slightly under half of PS4 software, and roughly a quarter of 3DS software.

Both those platforms also have Worldwide success. If the PS4 was only being sold in Japan and those were it's software sales I don't think anyone including Sony would have deemed it a success.

I'll let the topic rest here. It seems the positions are well established

That is fair. I will let it rest too.

 

[Datschge]

Except the Saturn sold like other garbage outside of Japan and because of that the Dreamcast managed to outsell the Saturn worldwide even before it was discontinued iirc.

Saturn not selling is not what killed Sega though. Western Sega killed Saturn and pushed for a successor while in Japan Sega had its biggest success yet. They prematurely killed that income stream and from there on financials were in free fall. People commonly forget/neglect that Sega always had been a small scale console manufacturer. Mega Drive/Genesis was a surprise hit in the West, and Saturn was their only larger scale success in Japan.

 

[extralite]

Unless you are literally talking about a hardware revision to the Vita just to use a different screen - in which case my question is still "but why?" - you are hugely undervaluing the cost in bringing a new gaming device to market.

e: Because - again - if the motivation is just "more devices using this screen" they would be better served just putting that screen in an Xperia

An Xperia without a touchscreen? I don't think so.

Obviously it would be the natural successor to Vita, spec-wise.

 

[Vinnk]

Could a kid not just ask their parents to buy the game digital? If they watch youtube they will know where to get it. They just would need to ask their parents.

My uncle buys games for my nephews on the eshop if there is no physical version available. So it's certainly not impossible.

With mobile gaming being download centred i am sure kids can find out there is Minecraft on the eshop digitally and otherwise their parents can with a simple google search.

I am sure they can and I am sure some parents will buy their kids this game from the eShop. But as of right now, these type of games just sell better on physical media.

Also, it has been changing a lot in recent years but when I moved here 13 years ago it was not uncommon to find that many adults did not own a credit card or had one but didn't really trust using it. Until fairly recently all but the big chain stores were cash only. I couldn't use my credit card for anything.

As I said things have changed a lot but still to this day a lot of people will pay for things with bank transfers, gift cards, Convince store payments or COD rather than use credit cards.

SO I think the best chance in the short term would be to have Minecraft download cards for sale at the usual stores and of course get the physical copies out ASAP.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

OTOH Nintendo took on certain compromises to make Switch a hybrid which all amount to avoidable costs, which opens up a price range opportunity below the Switch to a device that isn't a hybrid, doesn't need detachable controllers, doesn't need rumble etc.

There is definitely a gap there, but it's a lot easier for Nintendo to reach that point with a portable-oriented model of Switch later, than to create an all-new machine targeting that same area and convince people to support it somehow.

 

[Turrican3]

As a per capita thing it's definitely strongest there, but the other regions are still kind of a big deal.

That's hilariously interesting, it's crazy seeing how the three regions are basically identical (unless I'm missing something extremely obvious)

 

[frankie_baby]

I am sure they can and I am sure some parents will buy their kids this game from the eShop. But as of right now, these type of games just sell better on physical media.

Also, it has been changing a lot in recent years but when I moved here 13 years ago it was not uncommon to find that many adults did not own a credit card or had one but didn't really trust using it. Until fairly recently all but the big chain stores were cash only. I couldn't use my credit card for anything.

As I said things have changed a lot but still to this day a lot of people will pay for things with bank transfers, gift cards, Convince store payments or COD rather than use credit cards.

SO I think the best chance in the short term would be to have Minecraft download cards for sale at the usual stores and of course get the physical copies out ASAP.

Were there download cards for Wii U minecraft? And if there were dies anyone know how quickly they appeared?

 

[Celine]

Hm I remembered the Dreamcast hitting 10M in certain sources... Oh well. It still supports the claim that the Dreamcast sold better in the West than the Saturn right? Also, it does look like if they didn't discontinue the DC, it was on track to at least outsell the Saturn WW.

Yes, DC sold better than Saturn outside Japan but worse in Japan.

As for what DC was on track to do if it wasn't for the discontinuation well...
DC was at 8.20M units shipped as March 2001 when Sega discontinued the console.
After Sega disposed the remaining stocks at very low prices (think $99-$49).
The context around the decision of DC discontinuation was that Sega was from the beginning very aggressive, price-wise, with DC but sales didn't really pick up momentum beyond the launch while in the meantime Sony was unleashing PS2 which at first didn't have enough stocks to satiate demand but was ramping up production (and software support by third-parties).
To add to Sega's bleak picture, both Nintendo and Microsoft were ready to unleash huge investments to launch their new next-gen consoles.
DC was on track to be left behind and there was little Sega could have done.

 

[Datschge]

The context around the decision of DC discontinuation was that Sega was from the beginning very aggressive, price-wise, with DC but sales didn't really pick up momentum beyond the launch while in the meantime Sony was unleashing PS2 which at first didn't have enough stocks to satiate demand but was ramping up production (and software support by third-parties).
To add to Sega's bleak picture, both Nintendo and Microsoft were ready to unleash huge investments to launch their new next-gen consoles.
DC was on track to be left behind and there was little Sega could have done.

Sega completely burned out itself financially on the whole DC project. These are the income/losses Sega posted in the years before being bought/saved by Sammy (in million Yen):

1993: 28,017
1994: 23,223
1995: 14,085
1996: 5,304
1997: 5,572
1998: -35,635 <- release year of DC
1999: -42,881
2000: -42,880
2001: -51,730 <- discontinuation of DC
2002: -17,829
2003: 3,054 <- last annual report before merger

http://segaretro.org/Annual_reports

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

That's hilariously interesting, it's crazy seeing how the three regions are basically identical (unless I'm missing something extremely obvious)

Nope, nothing missed. In GBA days North America was way ahead of the other two, and in DS days Japan was way behind the other two. 3DS is down from DS everywhere, but in different amounts such that they end up matching.

 

[Aostia]

If I read all of this correctly, MH5 will be announced as exclusive launch title for the New Game Gear
Right?

 

[frankie_baby]

If I read all of this correctly, MH5 will be announced as exuniversity launch title for the New Game Gear
Right?

The hydrid scorpio2 aint it?

 

[theprodigy]

I may be misunderstanding the meaning of Dengeki Online Software FY2016. To frame it differently, it was slightly under half of PS4 software, and roughly a quarter of 3DS software.

If PS4 sales were as Japan-centric as the Vita and those were still its Japanese sales, the PS4 would be a dumpster fire failure.

So....sure.

 

[Vena]

If PS4 sales were as Japan-centric as the Vita and those were still its Japanese sales, the PS4 would be a dumpster fire failure.

So....sure.

Well dumpster fires are warm, and life requires some degree of heat generation/regulation, so... dumpster fire means life?!

 

[AquaWateria]

If Sony can't even support PSVR how are they gonna even support Vita 2?

Third parties didn't save Vita.

 

[Eolz]

If Sony can't even support PSVR how are they gonna even support Vita 2?

Third parties didn't save Vita.

Support? I thought they just launched new platforms with a lot of marketing, hope it works after some months with third parties coming automatically, and then planning further ahead only when it sells millions.

 

[test_account]

Support? I thought they just launched new platforms with a lot of marketing, hope it works after some months with third parties coming automatically, and then planning further ahead only when it sells millions.

Then you thought wrong

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Sony_Interactive_Entertainment_video_games

 

[Bruno MB]

PREDICTION LEAGUE MAY 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from May 1 to May 28):

[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware [3rd month] (28 days) - 205.000
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [2nd month] (28 days) - 225.000
[PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (4 days) - 19.000
[NSW] Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers (3 days) - 30.000

 

[Calm Mind]

Can I revise my May prediction?

 

[thestopsign]

Final Fantasy VII Remake for Switch... thoughts?

 

[rhandino]

Final Fantasy VII Remake for Switch... thoughts?

It's not happening.

Like... I really REALLY think it's not happening.

Kind of want it to be real just to to see the metldowns from some people saying that the Switch is holding back the remake tbh

 

[Principate]

It's not happening.

Like... I really REALLY think it's not happening.

Kind of want it to be real just to to see the metldowns from some people saying that the Switch is holding back the remake tbh

If we're talking about Japanese sales it makes sense. More than a Xb1 port anyway. If SE can do it and Sony's not blocking I imagined they'd have at least explored the option.

 

[Turrican3]

3DS is down from DS everywhere, but in different amounts such that they end up matching.

This, as I said, is definitely interesting.

I usually concentrate more on the home side of Nintendo's business so that kind of data probably isn't actually news to people who closely follow them.

Anyway, one has to wonder how much that graph influenced the design of the Switch, since to me it clearly shows there is a (relatively?) healthy market for handhelds after all even outside of Japan.

 

[schuelma]

Final Fantasy VII Remake for Switch... thoughts?

I don't think its unfeasible eventually, given its UE4 and I assume SE is already working on Switch with that engine with DQXI...but I really really doubt that particular rumor is credible.