Yea this always confused me
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Yea this always confused me
Nier: Automata is an "Action RPG" according to Square Enix, and Nioh is a "Dark Sengoku Action RPG" according to Koei Temco, therefore they aren't "true JRPGs" according to me!!!
Past data would suggest there is very little question, at all.
The PS4 has struggled to make "big hitters" that even scratch 1mil with FFXV being the only one to crawl its way within sniffing distance of 1 million sales. How much of a percent increase do you see the DQXI title offering over, let's say, 1 million sales? 20%? 50%? 75%?
On WiiU, a disastrous console that stifled its own software sales potential (as the 3DS has made very evident with the late ports), Splatoon sold ~1.5 million LTD (it has no doubt grown well past that number by the end of it, unless I am recalling incorrectly). To reach these numbers, on a much healthier much more software friendly platform (ie. the Switch), the PS4 version of DQXI would have to see a 50% increase over its highest current performing title with (a.) no basis of this in any other software, (b.) no showing of strong "big" selling capabilities, and (c.) with a need for ~30% tie ratio in the face of a 3DS version and subsequent Switch version which threatens to cut off the legs of the series down the road.
I *could* see the PS4 version of DQXI having an initial higher sales performance at and around release, in fact I think this is likely just due to the limited population and hardware availability of the Switch. But LTD in the long run? I think the PS4 version of DQXI will be lucky to not be looking at multiplier values of Splatoon 2's LTD vs its own.
I would say that this is not debatable at all, really. The PS4 just has not proven to be a capable platform for "big" performances in Japan. That's simply a fact of history and precedent, and there's no arguing it. Its a console that simply struggles to move large volume of any given title. You are arguing against this if you think it "debatable".
Skullwaker
Member
Why do you think it's debatable?
Fair enough, but still, with a 4 million+ userbase and DQXI being a ps4 big hit, DQXI also has a chance to outsold Splatoon 2, at least until the end of this year
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
If splatoon 2 underperformed I would actually be afraid for the Japanese market
Why is it a big hit? Who decided this? What even is "a big hit"?
And what about legs? If you are already forfeiting "by of this year" then the whole discussion kind of ends. This whole argument is effectively predicated on over-performance vs. staggering under-performance... for which there's really no base, the latter especially.
SinCityAssassin
Member
It'll be possible if I steal every splatoon 2 truck this coming July.
but come on, it's dragon quest,I think it could sell over one million on a console with a low usebase like the ps4, who knows what will happen
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
Dragon Quest VI DS had a bunch of issues that prevented it from selling well, non of which had much to do with its marketing.
Skullwaker
Member
Nintendo also published DQVII and DQVIII on the 3DS.
Jon Carter
Member
but come on, it's dragon quest,I think it could sell over one million on a console with a low usebase like the ps4, who knows what will happen
It will sell over one million, but Splatoon 2 will sell well over one million.
Issues such as? Heck, which Dragon Quest remake published by Nintendo did well in NA?
Errr...
If Dq has a 3 million global target audience on the two announced sku considering how even of weaker than expected there will be the stronger 3DS version, looking at how FFXV is crawling only now at he 1 million milestone, I think that 1.3 million would be a strong performance for the ps4 version of dqxi
considering home Splatoon sold more than that on the failed wiiu I would say that in terms of LTD is it likely to see splatoon selling get more than the ps4 version of DQXI
In terms of YTD at he end of 2017 I wouldn't be sure because of Switch install base and Splatoon not being a front loaded game but a leggy one
If we put the DQXI 3ds version in the calculation clearly to ensure put DQXI on top against Splatoon
No way splatoon 2 is seeing such a "monster Hunter portabke" increase over the first episode
considering home Splatoon sold more than that on the failed wiiu I would say that in terms of LTD is it likely to see splatoon selling get more than the ps4 version of DQXI
In terms of YTD at he end of 2017 I wouldn't be sure because of Switch install base and Splatoon not being a front loaded game but a leggy one
If we put the DQXI 3ds version in the calculation clearly to ensure put DQXI on top against Splatoon
No way splatoon 2 is seeing such a "monster Hunter portabke" increase over the first episode
Jaded Alyx
Member
You Sir, are insane.
What do you predict the lifetime sales of DQXI PS4 and Splatoon 2 will be?
Skullwaker
Member
The extremes here are giving me whiplash.
DQXI PS4 will not outsell Splatoon 2. In fact, DQXI PS4 may not even outsell the original Splatoon.
Similarly, I don't see Splatoon 2 outselling DQXI 3DS+PS4 this year, if at all. Especially considering DQ is more frontloaded and Splatoon (at least the original) depends on legs. If it does happen to outsell it, it will take several years of the game being on the market, I think.
DQXI PS4 will not outsell Splatoon 2. In fact, DQXI PS4 may not even outsell the original Splatoon.
Similarly, I don't see Splatoon 2 outselling DQXI 3DS+PS4 this year, if at all. Especially considering DQ is more frontloaded and Splatoon (at least the original) depends on legs. If it does happen to outsell it, it will take several years of the game being on the market, I think.
AdventureRacing
Member
How much are you expecting from each of them this year? I feel like 3 million+ is a sae bet for DQ XI this year. Unless splatoon 2 has basically a 100% attach rate it won't be able to match that.
Life time you could make the argument but this year there is no chance IMO.
Jon Carter
Member
Why do you do this to yourself? There's a 99.9% chance you'll be disappointed. You're gonna be the only guy in Media Create threads after Splatoon 2 is released to be disappointed by its performance, because your predictions are sky high.
...... Ps4 is still hoping for their first 1 mil hit on retail front which even ffxv is not able to reach till now. Vs splatoon which even severly limited by wii u sold more than 1 mil.... debatable on what?
Not sure if it was already known/old/anyone cares but Romancing SaGa 2 PS Vita version exceeded 200,000 downloads
Mentioned here: https://www.famitsu.com/news/201705/09132677.html
Mentioned here: https://www.famitsu.com/news/201705/09132677.html
Huh that's a lot of units. Puts in the upper echelon of Vita software.
Makes Scarlet Grace all the worse too.
How many digital units did Scarlet Grace sell?
Not huge enough to guarantee Scarlet Grace 2.☆~☆
How many copies? You have a number?
Evidently not enough for them to brag about that game's sales instead.
How do you know? Were you at Unite 2017 Tokyo yesterday?
DW9 is confirmed for PS4
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201705/09132662.html
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201705/09132662.html
I suppose there's a KT-Sony partnership for this one then, as highlighted by how the game was first shown in a Sony-sponsored livestream.
I hope people don't start saying that KT was blatantly lying about Switch support in spite of the current evidences (Nights of Azure 2, NA: Taishi), but I can see the usual suspects readying themselves to say it.
Wow, until now I believed it was going to be New 3DS exclusive.
DW9 is a fall/holiday release for this year? They are dropping FE Warriors for Nintendo platforms for this season....so I don't think anyone was expecting another big Musou title around the same time.
Kresnik258
Member
I don't see why this would have anything to do with it. I'd say they were probably Vita's best supporter, but that doesn't mean they didn't skip it for a lot of titles too.
Another?
Nice, though expected.
Seems like they are really trying with DW9... Maybe they can revive the series a bit and can attract the people who are tired of all the spin-offs.
It's also one of the bigger PS4 titles post DQXI - so Sony will push it hard, looking forward to see how it performs.
Kresnik258
Member
Waiting for some confirmation on that. Would make sense for the anniversary.
Unless "remake" means PS2 ISO dumps, that sounds way too generous for Koei Tecmo.
Koei Terms are blatantly lying about Switch support.
I wasn't so I missed when they announced it had a 90% digital ratio. I have brought shame upon myself, I'm gonna go commit sudoku.
I wasn't so I missed when they announced it had a 90% digital ratio. I have brought shame upon myself, I'm gonna go commit sudoku.
Yes we all know DW9 is a big Musou title. They've talked about it before when they announced it. It's supposed to be a big leap to open world. That's their big Musou title for 2017. There isn't any other.
I'm glad you've come to see things the way I do. I told everyone it would sell a million, no one believed me!
Ah, just read it: those were rumours from 2ch. It's better to wait for more infos to come out from Famitsu. So far, DW9 was real (duh, it was obvious once they said the reveal was going to be on May 11th, that's Famitsu's day), we'll see for the others.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Iirc one of the NPD threads had DQB numbers.
Also, I highly doubt the SW will ever get close to the number of JRPGs PS4 is getting, even if we're talking just about SE.
FFType 0 HD
FFXV
KH2.8
Disgaea 5 (overseas sales)
Tales of Zestiria
There have been numerous failures as well: SO5, Tales of Beseria (?), WoFF but most if not all pubs still are confident with the platform for JRPGs.
Were you afraid when Yokai Watch underperformed?
Kresnik258
Member
Yeah, it's sounding increasingly unlikely, not mentioned on the cover of Dengeki and not in Famitsu at all:
https://twitter.com/bk2128/status/861876675742621696
(Btw, Dengeki has Zanki Zero coverage).
I think it will get more jrpgs than the ps4, unless the ps4 somehow beat the switch straight up in Japan in the future
Principate
Saint Titanfall
3DS got way more than that over it's lifetime from larger franchises and original games.
I am shocked here lol.O_O
Oh ok.. I get it. Well I expect FEW to perform quite solid as well - considering how much their spin-offs sell nowadays, it should be one of their better selling titles on two popular systems with n3DS/Switch.Yes we all know DW9 is a big Musou title. They've talked about it before when they announced it. It's supposed to be a big leap to open world. That's their big Musou title for 2017. There isn't any other.