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[Dalthien]

Instead of seeing it as 11 years ago. Why dont you see it as just last generation?

Because it was still 11 years ago. That's a long time.

You try to point out that capcom havent made a good success for the first entry in new franchise ( well in case you want to exclude MH which doent have the explode opening ).

I did include Monster Hunter. In fact, I specifically pointed out that Monster Hunter is their best first week (120k) and best LTD (289k) of all their new franchises in the past decade.

I'm not even trying to suggest that Dragon's Dogma won't put up some decent numbers. I think it should end up beating Monster Hunter in both first week and LTD sales to become their best new franchise entry in the past decade (even if that's not a particularly high bar to clear). But it's not going to sell 500k first week, or 1M LTD which is what the discussion was about earlier in the thread.

And considering the lengthy dev time and massive size of the dev team involved, I suspect that the game will have a difficult time trying to recoup its investment - but that's another issue entirely. And it could even be a moot point altogether if they ultimately nurture the series and evolve it into something bigger with future sequels (a la Monster Hunter).

 

[extralite]

I don't know, maybe we're just misinterpreting each other's comments. But your initial post was made in light of the discussion about DD selling 500k in the first week, followed by matmanx1 stating that it was highly unusual for a new franchise to open above 250k. And in Capcom's case, matmanx1 is absolutely right. The last time a new Capcom franchise opened above 250k was Devil May Cry, back in 2001 - more than a decade ago.

He didn't say unusual. He said it takes an established franchise period. He also said it never happened to his knowledge. I pointed out that before PS3 it did happen. I also acknowledged that the same is unlikely to happen again on PS3.

Using Monster Hunter as an example makes no sense. That is a franchise that has been cultivated and has grown over time. It started wtih 300k on PS2, then MH2 did 600k on PS2, then Freedom did 670k on PSP with another 300k in a budget release. Then the next version went over a million on PSP, with Freedom Unite then going over 2 million, etc.

You pointed out my example is so far in the past it doesn't matter much for current predictions (true, also for DQX versus FFXI btw, a point which I have been making, not based on the time difference but because of changed conditions). I didn't argue with you on that but started talking about something else. Franchises growing over time. You pretending I was arguing something which I actually was never arguing makes no sense.

And MH basically being Capcom's first big online game, requiring the expensive HDD adapter and monthly fees to be played the way it's fun puts it in competition with FFXI. Compared to that it did excellent for a new franchise. More importantly, the franchise had the potential to grow into the biggest 3rd party franchise ever in Japan (measured by success of single installments).

And as you pointed out, Street Fighter had an initial run in the arcades, and then ports to consoles before Street Fighter 2 was released. But even if you want to use Street Fighter 2 as an example, that was more than 20 years ago, and started off its success (and familiarity) in the arcades before it ever reached consoles.

Honestly, there just aren't any examples of Capcom finding big success from the first entry of a new franchise in the past decade. Again, that isn't to say that they can't grow series into big franchises over time (a la Monster Hunter).

But that's exactly what I was talking about:

Other franchises by Capcom weren't as big out of the door

That's how my reply to your post begins. It was obvious that I didn't attack your point but that I shifted the topic elsewhere.

But their biggest (and this is actually kind of sad) first week for a new franchise in the last decade is Monster Hunter at 120k, and their biggest LTD for a new franchise in the last decade (and this is even more sad) is also Monster Hunter at 289k. Dragon's Dogma could potentially end up beating both of those quite easily, but that's Capcom's past decade with the first entry of a new franchise. Pretty damn miserable actually.

If you take success out of context then yes, it seems miserable. It really wasn't as I explained above.

And in light of those kinds of numbers, your comment about understanding how the Capcom guy expected a million in sales for Dragon's Dogma in Japan was kind of baffling.

That's not quite how I worded it and I my own position was from the start that I agree DD won't likely be that big. But working for Capcom maybe he feels the pressure to replicate past successes. He certainly isn't a sales buff who simply looks at it in terms of patterns. Unless they bank on it to appeal to the fantasy crowd, having a cross over with other RPGs and MH. Like Dino Crisis and Onimusha did with RE.

This is what I've been arguing, using sales data going back farther than you would like to allow me and also discussing long term chances for DD.

 

[Chris1964]

And any game half decent will sale fine. PS3 is really lack of good software in japan rightnow. DD has some hype i dont expect. And i believe that could translate into sale in some way. If the shop made 500k preorder which is even more than xillia and one oiece then i dont see why is that could be seen as bad potential of the game?

500k preorders for Dragon's Dogma must be the next worst thing after 700k initial shipment for Vita.

 

[donny2112]

500k preorders for Dragon's Dogma must be the next worst thing after 700k initial shipment for Vita.

If it sells really well and hits 250K first week, then a 500K retailer order is looking at 50% sell-through, which is seen as really poor for a core (i.e. not really long legs) game. If that happens, it'll be similar to MH3 on Wii, which was another Monster Hunter-type game on consoles. Guess that would reaffirm MH and its spinoffs as a portable franchise, then. We'll see when the sales come in.

 

[allan-bh]

I think some people are underestimating sales potential of Dragon's Dogma

 

[Chris1964]

I think some people are underestimating sales potential of Dragon's Dogma

What sales potential of Dragon's Dogma we underestimate?

250, 500, 750, 1000k?

 

[electroplankton]

DD might also have a +200k opening, but it won't reach the 500k mark.

 

[donny2112]

Mpl90,
I probably won't be online at 11 a.m. EDT this Wednesday, so if you (or someone else who's available) wants to start the new thread, please do so. If you need my formatting, I can provide it once I get online. You usually seem to do a good job, though. Chris1964 can do the full format Thursday night/Friday morning, as usual.

Okay?

 

[BKK]

So about Sega's financial report being wrong about no Wii-U games this FY because Aliens has already been confirmed as a launch title ...

Aliens: Colonial Marines will be available in stores across the globe on February 12, 2013 on PlayStation®3 computer entertainment system, Xbox 360® video game and entertainment system from Microsoft and Windows PC. A release date for the announced Wii U™ version will be revealed at a later time.

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/05/21/aliens-colonial-marines-delayed-to-february-2013/

 

[bigtroyjon]

So about Sega's financial report being wrong about no Wii-U games this FY because Aliens has already been confirmed as a launch title ...



http://www.joystiq.com/2012/05/21/aliens-colonial-marines-delayed-to-february-2013/

Is there some invisible writing I can't see where it's confirmed as a launch title?

 

[Instro]

Is there some invisible writing I can't see where it's confirmed as a launch title?

He's saying that it was previously confirmed as a launch title, but clearly not anymore.

 

[BKK]

Is there some invisible writing I can't see where it's confirmed as a launch title?

From last week's thread;

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=37772474&postcount=425

 

[mclem]

So about Sega's financial report being wrong about no Wii-U games this FY because Aliens has already been confirmed as a launch title ...

Aliens: Colonial Marines will be available in stores across the globe on February 12, 2013 on PlayStation®3 computer entertainment system, Xbox 360® video game and entertainment system from Microsoft and Windows PC. A release date for the announced Wii U™ version will be revealed at a later time.

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/05/21/aliens-colonial-marines-delayed-to-february-2013/

Unless, of course, they're going to reveal an earlier date. To coincide with launch. At E3.

 

[BKK]

Unless, of course, they're going to reveal an earlier date. To coincide with launch. At E3.

Not according to their fiscal release plan.

 

[bigtroyjon]

He's saying that it was previously confirmed as a launch title, but clearly not anymore.

From last week's thread;

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=37772474&postcount=425

Yeah, I misread that. Thought you were saying that the new info was confirming it as a launch title.

 

[test_account]

Speaking of WiiU, do we know of any japanese 3rd party WiiU games?

 

[magash]

Speaking of WiiU, do we know of any japanese 3rd party WiiU games?

Only a few games have been announced (like tekken, ninja gaiden etc).

 

[mclem]

Not according to their fiscal release plan.

That's clearly just a ploy to lure the opposition into a false sense of security.

(NB: Please don't make the mistake of thinking that I'm serious about this

 

[test_account]

Only a few games have been announced (like tekken, ninja gaiden etc).

Oh, right, i forgot about Tekken. I remember they showed that in a trailer, drawing Dreamcast logos (or similar) on the face in-game hehe. I had completely forgotten about Ninja Gaiden. Thanks

 

[DrWong]

According to the French website Gamekult, Famitsu/Enterbrain just published total 3DS sales to date (on May 20): 6.017.206 in Japan and 14 millions worldwide. Sorry if already posted.

 

[electroplankton]

According to the French website Gamekult, Famitsu/Enterbrain just published total 3DS sales to date (on May 20): 6.017.206 in Japan and 14 millions worldwide. Sorry if already posted.

Nice!

 

[DrWong]

Yeah, I'm just curious about the 14M worlwide figure: is it the difference between shipped (18M) and sold (14M)?

 

[Mpl90]

You can just see it on Famitsu site itself

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201205/22015030.html

There's no mention of the 14 million total ( also because it was already higher than that with Q1 datas ).

...Does it say 3DS did 65k last week?

I mean

4.850.000 now, given April NPD

+

4.166.666 with the first two weeks of April counted

+

6.017.206 till May 20 in Japan

= over 15 millions

 

[DrWong]

Ok Thanks.

 

[Mpl90]

Considering week 18 Famitsu total ( around 5.930.000), adding week 19 3DS data from Media Create ( 46k), and then doing Famitsu's week 20 LTD less the result of the former operation, we have around 40k 3DS sold for week 20.

 

[Road]

JPN Indie game PSN Sales
Even if you ask me to work ,a psn exclusive dungeon rpg had more then 5000 sales it's first week, with a marketing budget of 0 according to developers twitter.

http://blog.esuteru.com/archives/6176257.html

This week where it sold "more than 5000" units, it was the no. 2 game, while "Conception: Please, Have My Babies!" was the no. 1 (which means it sold more than 5k downloads too in its launch week).


New update: https://twitter.com/#!/yoshimiki0519/status/204795122796347393

No. 1 digital game for 05/14~05/20 (PSP only I assume).

EDIT: I just looked at his tweets and he has posted sales for every week:

2012-04-23 2 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 5,000 / 5,000
2012-04-30 1 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 3,000 / 8,215
2012-05-07 1 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 2,800 / 11,059
2012-05-14 1 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 2,700 / 13,500

 

[Road]

According to the French website Gamekult, Famitsu/Enterbrain just published total 3DS sales to date (on May 20): 6.017.206 in Japan and 14 millions worldwide. Sorry if already posted.

DS at week 65: 5,952,299

Week 66: DS Lite is released.

 

[haadim]

This week where it sold "more than 5000" units, it was the no. 2 game, while "Conception: Please, Have My Babies!" was the no. 1 (which means it sold more than 5k downloads too in its launch week).


New update: https://twitter.com/#!/yoshimiki0519/status/204795122796347393

No. 1 digital game for 05/14~05/20 (PSP only I assume).

EDIT: I just looked at his tweets and he has posted sales for every week:

2012-04-23 2 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 5,000 / 5,000
2012-04-30 1 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 3,000 / 8,215
2012-05-07 1 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 2,800 / 11,059
2012-05-14 1 [PSP] Ore ni Hatarakette Iwaretemo {DL} (E-smile) {2012-04-24} - 2,700 / 13,500

Is this like the first concrete data on psn download game sales number regardless of region?

It is refreshing when one does not have to rely on star rating numbers to guesstimate how well a game sells on psn.

Now, considering "Ore ni..." currently has 632 star ratings, this means not even 5% of people are bothering to rate games they buy on psn.

Unexpectedly low I feel.

 

[Spiegel]

This week where it sold "more than 5000" units, it was the no. 2 game, while "Conception: Please, Have My Babies!" was the no. 1 (which means it sold more than 5k downloads too in its launch week).

So >17% of Conception FW sales came from digital downloads. That's surprising.

 

[guit3457]

Nintendo 3DS has reached the 6 million mark:

http://andriasang.com/con13f/3ds_sales/

"The system's total from February 26, 2011 through May 20, 2012, is 6,017,206 units."

 

[Mileena]

Only a few games have been announced (like tekken, ninja gaiden etc).

Ouch

 

[frankie_baby]

Nintendo 3DS has reached the 6 million mark:

http://andriasang.com/con13f/3ds_sales/

"The system's total from February 26, 2011 through May 20, 2012, is 6,017,206 units."

Ooh so 61k for 3ds this week, impressive rebound from the week of doom

 

[Jokeropia]

Ouch

?

I don't think we're anywhere near a position to judge Wii U support based on official announcements at this point. There is DQX, though.

 

[BishopLamont]

Releasing NSMB2 in August shows how crazy Nintendo is on keeping the 3DS momentum alive, I can't wait to see what they have lined up for Christmas, Wii U + 3DS will be smashing everything.

Ouch

Don't sweat. Japanese devs are more obedient than western devs, there won't be a shortage of support for the Wii-U. They're just simply not saying anything until Nintendo gives the ok.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Ooh so 61k for 3ds this week, impressive rebound from the week of doom

Are Enterbrain sharing the same estimates as Media Create now?

 

[Mpl90]

The article says just that 3DS did over 6 millions after 65 weeks.
The estimate for last week is 40k, already posted why.

 

[Mileena]

?

I don't think we're anywhere near a position where we can judge Wii U support based on official announcements at this point. There is DQX, though.

Ninja Gaiden 3 still hurts me

 

[cw_sasuke]

Harvest Moon 3DS tops 200K(shipped)

http://andriasang.com/con143/harvest_moon_3ds_sales/

 

[Mpl90]

So, with Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd, 3DS will have already 3 Musou games in just one year and an half. It seems something is really changing.

 

[electroplankton]

So, with Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd, 3DS will have already 3 Musou games in just one year and an half. It seems something is really changing.

SWC2 is the games they should have made BEFORE DWVS, to release possibly during last holiday season. Better than never, I guess. The first one sold over 120k (price cut, launch title, blabla) but I do think it left some good impression in video gamers.

 

[cw_sasuke]

So, with Samurai Warriors Chronicles 2nd, 3DS will have already 3 Musou games in just one year and an half. It seems something is really changing.

They have found a platform to reuse their PSP/PS2 assets for another couple years - sounds profitable to me.

 

[Laughing Banana]

Harvest Moon 3DS tops 200K(shipped)

http://andriasang.com/con143/harvest_moon_3ds_sales/

This news pleases me.

One: this will mean this game will be much more likely to be brought to the US.
Two: there will be more harvest moon games on the 3DS which is fantastic.

 

[electroplankton]

This news pleases me.

One: this will mean this game will be much more likely to be brought to the US.
Two: there will be more harvest moon games on the 3DS which is fantastic.

I believe no one expected HM to stay in Japan; it sells pretty well here.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Is this like the first concrete data on psn download game sales number regardless of region?

It is refreshing when one does not have to rely on star rating numbers to guesstimate how well a game sells on psn.

Now, considering "Ore ni..." currently has 632 star ratings, this means not even 5% of people are bothering to rate games they buy on psn.

Unexpectedly low I feel.

We've had Persona and Stien's gate's numbers too... goes back to the whole it's not entirely fair to compare vita numbers argument blah blah

 

[Bruno MB]

Harvest Moon 3DS tops 200K(shipped)

http://andriasang.com/con143/harvest_moon_3ds_sales/

It is already the second best-selling Harvest Moon title, only Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness for NDS sold more.

Unless Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin shows marvelous legs it won't outsell it since Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness left the Famitsu top 30 with 187,094 and ended up selling 304,348 units.

 

[electroplankton]

It is already the second best-selling Harvest Moon title, only Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness for NDS sold more.

Unless Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin shows marvelous legs it won't outsell it since Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness left the Famitsu top 30 with 187,094 and ended up selling 304,348 units.

It depends on when MAQL will release the next one. If it'll be a 2013 release, I can see this HM selling until Christmas, which would not be unusual for a HM entry.

 

[Kenka]

I am glad for Marvelous. Now please announce NMH3 for WiiU at E3 please ;-)

 

[frankie_baby]

Are Enterbrain sharing the same estimates as Media Create now?

D'oh stupid me

 

[pramath]

How long till we get this week's Media Create numbers?

 

[slaughterking]

Six hours.