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Media Create Sales: Week 21, 2017 (May 22 - May 28)

I hope I'm wrong but I suspect ARMS will be a game that does well and everyone enjoys but not enough there to warrant a sequel (e.g., Custom Robo)


It may not do well in Japan but it will definitely do well in the West.

Its doing really well on Amazon that's for sure. Also it seems to me Nintendo are marketing it heavily in the West than in Japan.
 

LordRaptor

Member
It may not do well in Japan but it will definitely do well in the West.

Its doing really well on Amazon that's for sure. Also it seems to me Nintendo are marketing it heavily in the West than in Japan.

Japan still has an arcade scene, and that tends to be where fighting games earn their audiences. Its very likely SFV would have performed better if it had had an arcade release, for example.
 

Passose

Banned
It may not do well in Japan but it will definitely do well in the West.

Its doing really well on Amazon that's for sure. Also it seems to me Nintendo are marketing it heavily in the West than in Japan.
I have a feeling it will be an unexpected hit though, don't know why, but whatever :p
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
This is what I found digging through release lists.

Famicom / NES
Romancia (Tokyo Shoseki)
Dragon Slayer IV: Drasle Family (Namco) / Legacy of the Wizard (Broderbund)
Faxanadu (Hudson) / Faxanadu (Nintendo)
Asteka II: Taiyou no Shinden (Tokyo Shoseki) / Tombs & Treasures (Infocom)
Ys (Victor)
Ys II (Victor)
Ys III: Wanderers from Ys (Victor)

Super Famicom / Super NES
Ys III: Wanderers from Ys (Tonkin House) / Ys III: Wanderers from Ys (American Sammy)
Dragon Slayer: Eiyuu Densetsu (Epoch)
Lord Monarch (Epoch)
Ys IV: Mask of the Sun (Tonkin House)
Dragon Slayer: Eiyuu Densetsu II (Epoch)
Popful Mail (Nihon Falcom)
Brandish (Koei) / Brandish (Koei)
Brandish 2: The Planet Buster (Koei)
Ys V: Ushinawareta Suna no Miyako Kefin (Nihon Falcom)
Brandish 2 Expert (Koei)
Ys V Expert (Koei)
BS Dragon Slayer: Eiyuu Densetsu (Epoch) BSX

Game Boy
Dragon Slayer I (Epoch)
Dragon Slayer Gaiden (Epoch)

Nintendo DS
Ys Strategy (Marvelous) / Ys Strategy (Rising Star)
Ys I DS (Interchannel)
Ys II DS (Interchannel)
Ys I + II DS Special Box (Interchannel) / Legacy of Ys: Books I & II (Atlus)

Nintendo 3DS
Gurumin 3D (Flyhigh Works) / Gurumin 3D (Mastiff)

Wii (Virtual Console) PC Engine CD-ROM2 / TurboGrafx-CD
Ys I • II (Hudson) / Ys Book I & II (Hudson)
Dragon Slayer: Eiyuu Densetsu (Hudson)
Kaze no Densetsu Xanadu (Nihon Falcom)
Kaze no Densetsu Xanadu II (Nihon Falcom)

Wii (Virtual Console) MegaDrive
Sorcerian (Sega)
Lord Monarch (Sega)
Dragon Slayer: Eiyuu Densetsu (Sega)
Dragon Slayer: Eiyuu Densetsu II (Sega)

Wii (Virtual Console) Famicom / NES
Faxanadu (Hudson) / Faxanadu (Hudson)

Wow, that's pretty thorough. Basically shows it's been license efforts for nearly everything except the SNES. For recently developed efforts, it was Marvelous and Interchannel for the Ys games on the DS and Flyhigh Works/Mastiff for Gurumin on 3DS.

It basically proved Falcom sticks to a platform once they choose it. They don't stretch their resources thin buying up dev kits to make SKUs for different hardware makers. But we already knew that, and they are happy to license out their brands to other publishers.
 

kswiston

Member
Is it possible Switch will beat PS4 to 6 million LTD?��

Seems unlikely to me. NDS passed 6M in Japan in Feb 2006, a little less than 15 months after release. Switch is already 1M behind the DS after 3 months, and will only get a single Holiday season in its first 15 months, instead of 2. (EDIT: I guess that doesn't matter much, since DS's first holiday was launch month. Ignore the last bit)

Even if Switch somehow makes up the 1M deficit later this year, and ties the DS's time to 6M, we're talking beginning of June 2018. How does the PS4 fail to sell 1.2M consoles in the next year?

EDIT: PS4 has sold 1.9M units since a year ago this week for comparison.
 

Vena

Member
Seems unlikely to me. NDS passed 6M in Japan in Feb 2006, a little less than 15 months after release. Switch is already 1M behind the DS after 3 months, and will only get a single Holiday season in its first 15 months, instead of 2. (EDIT: I guess that doesn't matter much, since DS's first holiday was launch month. Ignore the last bit)

Even if Switch somehow makes up the 1M deficit later this year, and ties the DS's time to 6M, we're talking beginning of June 2018. How does the PS4 fail to sell 1.2M consoles in the next year?

EDIT: PS4 has sold 1.9M units since a year ago this week for comparison.

Just to remember, though, the PS4 has in all effect run out of many known major releases at this point and some of the big tentpoles put on display, like FFVIIR and KH, are not coming out any time soon, or ever. The only thing left is DQXI and, since I don't doubt it, some form of MH in some near future term. (Other more staple releases will have diminishing returns on increasing hardware as well after the first entry.)

What happens from here will depend on where the baseline remains (seems ~17-18k as a fairly stable point), and what new major software gets announced that remains exclusive. I do think the Switch will eat into any "launch bumps" the PS4 will see from here on out for any software they share, for obvious reasons of a broken monopoly.

Also depends on what you expect DQXI to do or not do for the system. That said, I still expect the PS4 to make it to 6m before the Switch unless hardware fortunes vastly improve on the Switch for availability and in such a scenario that demand does not let-up.


I am not actually surprised by this.
 

Bebpo

Banned
Guilty Gear is hard to tell. Normally we poo poo digital sales in Japan as less than 20-30%, but Rev2 is literally DLC that has a boxed version for 2x the digital price (2000yen digital vs 4000yen boxed). Pretty much anyone who bought Revelator and wants Rev2 is going to buy the 2000yen DLC.

Then again Revelator sold piss poor with probably like 30k LTD (and who knows how many were sold back, though likewise many were bought used), so I'd guess at most Rev2 could've done like 20k since most of the 30k that did buy Revelator are the remaining hardcore GG fans since all the casual mainstream left between Sign and Revelator.

Not expecting Rev2 to do that much better WW. Imo it's the end of the series as it's just not profitable enough to fund anymore considering it's a fairly high production value game.

Though with GG over and BlazBlue over, how is Arc gonna pay the bills? I'm definitely seeing a new Persona fighter next and some licensed stuff to pay the bills until their next original fighter.
 

Passose

Banned
Just to remember, though, the PS4 has in all effect run out of many known major releases at this point and some of the big tentpoles put on display, like FFVIIR and KH, are not coming out any time soon, or ever. The only thing left is DQXI and, since I don't doubt it, some form of MH in some near future term. (Other more staple releases will have diminishing returns on increasing hardware as well after the first entry.)

What happens from here will depend on where the baseline remains (seems ~17-18k as a fairly stable point), and what new major software gets announced that remains exclusive. I do think the Switch will eat into any "launch bumps" the PS4 will see from here on out for any software they share, for obvious reasons of a broken monopoly.

Also depends on what you expect DQXI to do or not do for the system. That said, I still expect the PS4 to make it to 6m before the Switch unless hardware fortunes vastly improve on the Switch for availability and in such a scenario that demand does not let-up.
Tbh keep thinking about that weird ass monster hunter game is just making me sad :p
 

Eolz

Member
Ōkami;238752657 said:
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DBMZZL8XYAEbY1v.jpg


Switch gets away from Wii U just as it gets outdone by the PSP, though both are getting near the 3DS.

PS2 and Wii are neck and neck while the DS starts to fall behind the GBA.

First 20 weeks launhc aligned (Media Create)

3d9861a8ee45337ecf84c74769d4a2af.png

Thanks for the stats!


The power of Splatoon. And also the only kind of official headset so far?
 
Interesting to see that Nintendo expected the Switch would sell worse than the WiiU at the beginning at least.

Though the total sales are not high enough for all kind of reasons to determine where the road will end for the Switch.
 

Zedark

Member
Interesting to see that Nintendo expected the Switch would sell worse than the WiiU at the beginning at least.

Though the total sales are not high enough for all kind of reasons to determine where the road will end for the Switch.

Well, at the beginning Nintendo also expected the Wii U to sell as well as the Wii, so that's why the start is so big for Wii U.
 

L~A

Member
Though with GG over and BlazBlue over, how is Arc gonna pay the bills? I'm definitely seeing a new Persona fighter next and some licensed stuff to pay the bills until their next original fighter.

Kunio-kun and Jake Hunter will save ASW!

Not really.
 

Fiendcode

Member
GG and Blazblue have been in the dumps for years. Cube Creator 3D is what really saved ASW but Minecraft Switch makes it's future moot.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
I also hope this happens. I loved the ARMS Testpunch and I hope this becomes Nintendo's new successful IP.

But so far I see nothing to indicate there will be more stock for the ARMS release.

Everything here is Splatoon 2, Splatoon 2, Splatoon 2, Splatoon 2, Splatoon 2!

I don't think ARMS will bomb but I feel it will be heavily overshadowed by Splatton 2 even though it is coming out first.

I am guessing it will sell a lot of units to Japanese Switch owners who played the testpunch, but I just don't see the big mainstream hype. Kids are not talking about ARMS. Well... my kids are, but in general it's just not there yet. If there are ARMS TV ads, I have not seen one yet. I don't think anyone is buying a Switch for ARMS specifically (though I think a lot of people buying a Switch will pick it up in addition to the killer app they are buying the system for).

There are no ARMS bundles. And the Switch units in the Splatoon 2 and MHXX bundles has to come from somewhere so I don't see Nintendo getting 75k, 100k (or whatever people are predicting) into the channel on ARMS launch.

I hope I'm wrong. But I would not be shocked if there isn't a massive bump in supply that week.

There will be a guaranteed increase in supply Splatoon 2 week (bundles). But other than that I don't think Nintendo is "holding back" any units for ARMS. It would make no sense to to do. They can already sell every one they make and Mario Kart 8DX sales are currently being kneecapped by shortages.

I think Nintendo made it clear that Splatoon 2 will be the title that will be pushed hard this year. Both directs except Arms had Splatoon as the as the highlight. As much as they believe in Arms it's still a first entry of a new IP at an genre that is dominated from another Nintendo game. Even if it succeeds its sales will still be a small part of what Splatoon will do.

Shipments wiil increase during its launch but mainly as preparation of what's coming next.
 

Bebpo

Banned
GG and Blazblue have been in the dumps for years.

No? The BlazBlue before Central Fiction was still selling around 100k which is great for a Japanese fighting game yearly series. CF took a dip though and GG has always been the lower seller. ASW isn't a huge company so if they had a yearly fighter they could sell to the arcades and then sell 100-150k copies at home + worldwide sales I think that'd be fine. That was ASW up to 2-3 years ago. Will be interesting to see what they do now, though I really feel Persona 5 Ultimate is in the works. Just makes too much sense for everyone now not to do it.
 

Ōkami

Member

3DS: 4.7m (+19%)
PS4: 3.5m (+12%)
SWI: 1.4m
PSV: 1.1m (-54%)
WIU: 358k (-67%)
PS3: 105k (-88%)
XB1: 11k (-43%)

PS4 should be surpassing 20m total sales right before Dragon Quest XI comes out, July should also make up for sluggish PS4 software sales between April and June, particularly April and May as essentially nothing came out, when the biggest release is a Vita port then yeah.

There was a 50% drop of PS4 software sales compared to last May, this in turn dramatically slowed down its YoY growth as it went from +24% to +12% and will likely drop further in June, though, as I said it should bounce back in July.

May was a terrible month all around but it hit PS4 the hardest, not only was May the lowest month of sales for the whole year but it was the worst month the system has seen since July of last year.
 

Vena

Member
Ōkami;238860225 said:
There was a 50% drop of PS4 software sales compared to last May, this in turn dramatically slowed down its YoY growth as it went from +24% to +12% and will likely drop further in June, though, as I said it should bounce back in July.

May was a terrible month all around but it hit PS4 the hardest, not only was May the lowest month of sales for the whole year but it was the worst month the system has seen since July of last year.

This problem isn't limited to these months, its just exasperated in this dull epoch in the summer that we hit. The PS4 is out of major marquee releases even after DQXI until it reaches the usual suspects from the west coming later on. DQXI will stand as an exception as a brief respite until more software is announced or we see something short term in E3.

Last year was a culmination of years worth of promises and delays.
 

Ōkami

Member
That's also something I've been thinking about, after Dragon Quest XI there's nothing major announnced from the Japanese side, X will maybe sell 200k and I don't have much hopes with Everybody's Golf.

Compared to the second half of last year the only major release we have now is Dragon Quest XI, in 2016 we had Final Fantasy XV dated, as well as Persona 5, Tales of Berseria and Yakuza 6 still with a TBA date, but all slate for 2016.

The tales festival is going on right now, maybe a new game will be announced and maybe it'll be out this year and Sega cranks out Yakuza games every year so likely a new one from them as well.

For the western front, Call of Duty will probably sell well while Destiny and Star Wars are more like wild cards.
 

Vena

Member
Right. I assume the usual western staples will perform as they usually do (though CoD may continue slipping, the trends here are weird between BLOPS/IW/WW2 with all the drastic turns the franchise is taking right now). I don't expect major gains or losses from the others like Battlefront 2, though even there I feel like this year is a little light on the tail end.

Japan right now has: FFVIIR (2018++?), KH3 (vaporware), MonHun Something (2018?), Tales of Something (2018?), Yakuza Something (2018?) and then... that's it, and I had to include hypotheticals. 2016 also saw a well-timed price-drop which spurred hardware and software and the Pro launch. So there was big software dated and ready, and there was movement on the hardware side of things as well.

2017 is almost barren by comparison and these last few months were outright desolate, and there's not much openly slated going forward or anything that's very "big" before or after DQXI which is in and of itself shared across three platforms.
 
Shame that RDR 2 also slipped to next year. I know that the setting is not as appealing as with GTA but after huge success of GTA V in Japan RDR 2 will probably sell pretty well too.

Right. I assume the usual western staples will perform as they usually do (though CoD may continue slipping, the trends here are weird between BLOPS/IW/WW2 with all the drastic turns the franchise is taking right now). I don't expect major gains or losses from the others like Battlefront 2, though even there I feel like this year is a little light on the tail end.

Japan right now has: FFVIIR (2018++?), KH3 (vaporware), MonHun Something (2018?), Tales of Something (2018?), Yakuza Something (2018?) and then... that's it, and I had to include hypotheticals. 2016 also saw a well-timed price-drop which spurred hardware and software and the Pro launch. So there was big software dated and ready, and there was movement on the hardware side of things as well.

2017 is almost barren by comparison and these last few months were outright desolate, and there's not much openly slated going forward or anything that's very "big" before or after DQXI which is in and of itself shared across three platforms.
Well I don't know how you define big but Gundam Versus could sell over 200k first week going by the sales of the franchise on PS3.
 

Arzehn

Member
Gundam Versus and GT Sport should do > 150k FW, other than that PS4 will be carried by western games for 2nd half.
 

Vena

Member
Well I don't know how you define big but Gundam Versus could sell over 200k first week going by the sales of the franchise on PS3.

I legitimately forgot about it, actually, so add it as an addendum as it definitely falls into a bracket of Tales of and Yakuza-like sales if it makes that sort of performance.

Gundam Versus and GT Sport should do > 100k FW, other than that PS4 will be carried by western games for 2nd half.

This is not a thing, and if it reaches this point then it is very, very bad.
 

Arzehn

Member
I legitimately forgot about it, actually, so add it as an addendum as it definitely falls into a bracket of Tales of and Yakuza-like sales if it makes that sort of performance.



This is not a thing, and if it reaches this point then it is very, very bad.

I imagine GTA5 has already contributed to PS4's sustained hardware.

Destiny 2 has a good shot of doing 100k+ FW, and Ubisoft has had their own success lately. R6S is a weird sort of success story.

E3 is just around the corner too, where western companies announce and launch in the same year, unlike the bigger Japanese companies.

Seems like every year is "there's no games left after X" followed up by announcements and hardware going up YoY.
 
Yeah, western games are suppose to be like the cherry on top of a sundae, they're arent a substitute for the ice cream (aka Japanese games).
 

Ōkami

Member
As it stands now the PS4 is a good enough value proposition to keep selling well, it doesn't need major releases every week, so it'll do well for the rest of the year regardless.

Even then I'd still expect some revision to come out this year, be it a smaller/cheaper Pro or a price drop. What I'm expecting is for the biggest PS4 games to start being rereleased, we're at that point in the system's life, Dark Souls had it earlier this year, Black Ops got announced yesterday, from that Final Fantasy XV will probably get one, maybe Persona 5 too, Metal Gear should've gotten one last year but its never too late, maybe Resident Evil 7 will be getting a Gold Edition, would match Capcom's expectations for the game.

Sony's western efforts keep doing well in Japan, so God of War or Days Gone or whatever could do good too.

PS4 the Best games should be coming out soon too I'd say, starting with something like Bloodborne and Yakuza 0 would be well.

Holiday season will be Switch's anyway, unless they sell a 10.000 yen PS4 that's not really going to change.
 

Vena

Member
I imagine GTA5 has already contributed to PS4's sustained hardware.

Destiny 2 has a good shot of doing 100k+ FW, and Ubisoft has had their own success lately. R6S is a weird sort of success story.

Those are standard fare that I was accounting for, they are known quantities like Battlefront 2 for the most part that I expect to perform at par.

E3 is just around the corner too, where western companies announce and launch in the same year, unlike the bigger Japanese companies.

Seems like every year is "there's no games left after X" followed up by announcements and hardware going up YoY.

E3 has little to do with Japan on the by unless you are Nintendo with universal software, it is largely geared towards a more western appetite for games.

This is the first time we are going into E3 with such a schedule for the PS4, this is not an "every year" thing at all, and previous years not only had foreseeable software releases, they also had forseeable hardware price drops/releases.

We're at a transition point of the system's life cycle, from here it is as Okami outlined above to a large degree as we've burned through many of the long-in-the-making releases that prefaced this generations arrival. Now we will see where the value proposition lands the PS4 on a week to week basis, though we seem to more or less know where that is given these last several weeks and those that lie ahead.
 
I legitimately forgot about it, actually, so add it as an addendum as it definitely falls into a bracket of Tales of and Yakuza-like sales if it makes that sort of performance.

Well there is also FF XII Zodiac Age in July. Dunno how XII originally was received in Japan but going by FF X Remaster sales it should handily have at least way over 100k opening.

This is not a thing, and if it reaches this point then it is very, very bad.

Except it has been this way for pretty much since PS4 launch? Just look at the games that have done 100k in Japan on PS4. Also it's western games that actually have some kind of legs and so will continue to drive hardware sales during weaker weeks (See GTA V and Rainbow Six still in the charts). Japanese releases are pretty much one week affairs.
 

Hazzuh

Member
No? The BlazBlue before Central Fiction was still selling around 100k which is great for a Japanese fighting game yearly series. CF took a dip though and GG has always been the lower seller. ASW isn't a huge company so if they had a yearly fighter they could sell to the arcades and then sell 100-150k copies at home + worldwide sales I think that'd be fine. That was ASW up to 2-3 years ago. Will be interesting to see what they do now, though I really feel Persona 5 Ultimate is in the works. Just makes too much sense for everyone now not to do it.

Do we have any idea what proportion of revenue ASW generate from arcades vs from console ports? I have no intuition for something like that.
 

Vena

Member
Except it has been this way for pretty much since PS4 launch? Just look at the games that have done 100k in Japan on PS4. Also it's western games that actually have some kind of legs and so will continue to drive hardware sales during weaker weeks (See GTA V and Rainbow Six still in the charts). Japanese releases are pretty much one week affairs.

No I meant for the entire second half to be *only* western releases. We've always had the year tail-ended by something big in addition to the usual suspects streaming out in steady fashion.
 

Arzehn

Member
Those are standard fare that I was accounting for, they are known quantities like Battlefront 2 for the most part that I expect to perform at par.



E3 has little to do with Japan on the by unless you are Nintendo with universal software, it is largely geared towards a more western appetite for games.

This is the first time we are going into E3 with such a schedule for the PS4, this is not an "every year" thing at all, and previous years not only had foreseeable software releases, they also had forseeable hardware price drops/releases.

We're at a transition point of the system's life cycle, from here it is as Okami outlined above to a large degree as we've burned through many of the long-in-the-making releases that prefaced this generations arrival. Now we will see where the value proposition lands the PS4 on a week to week basis, though we seem to more or less know where that is given these last several weeks and those that lie ahead.

I mean after DQXI we're probably not getting a blockbuster this year from a Japanese company on the PS4 side. Perhaps Ni no Kuni 2 will do better than the first like Nier Automata did, I believe that was slated for 2017.

PS4 has done well with 1 or 2 BIG games a year.

2018 is still filled with possibilities, new hardware, etc.

Just off the top of my head for remainder of 2017:

GT Sport
Gundam Versus
Ni No Kuni 2
God Eater 3 (still have to see platforms)
DQX
Everybody's Golf
Dragon's Dogma
Little Witch Academia
Naruto to Boruto: Shinobi Striker
Knack 2

I donno, seems like an ok followup to Dragon Quest 11 to me. Sprinkled into there will be the smaller titles announced in magazines.

And there's already stuff showing it's head for early 2018 like Code Vein and Dynasty Warriors 9.
 

sense

Member
Cygames announced a couple of projects for PS4 of which one of them is with platinum which we should see more of probably around tgs.

From software most likely has a COUPLE of games for PS4

Capcom most likely has more than just mh. Resident evil 2 remake is one that could be big.

Sega/atlus probably has that smt hd project for switch shared with ps4 and I am sure there will be more albeit years away like that new ip from persona team.... maybe we will see some persona remakes/spinoffs in the meantime. There is that aegis 13 sentinel game as well

Dynasty warriors 9 but not sure how that will do

I am sure there will be more that will be announced at Tgs.
 

Ōkami

Member
Keep in mind that I'm only talking about the later half of 2017 compared to the later half of 2016, not anything further.

Around this time last we knew nothing of the first half of 2017 so obviously we don't know anything of 2018 either.

Maybe due to some crazy coincidence most major Japanese releases of the system just happen to release between September 2016 and March 2017 and the next wave of big releases is still being worked on turning 2017 in a somwhat lull year.
 

Rolf NB

Member
I mean after DQXI we're probably not getting a blockbuster this year from a Japanese company on the PS4 side. Perhaps Ni no Kuni 2 will do better than the first like Nier Automata did, I believe that was slated for 2017.

PS4 has done well with 1 or 2 BIG games a year.

2018 is still filled with possibilities, new hardware, etc.

Just off the top of my head for remainder of 2017:

GT Sport
Gundam Versus
Ni No Kuni 2
God Eater 3 (still have to see platforms)
DQX
Everybody's Golf
Dragon's Dogma
Little Witch Academia
Naruto to Boruto: Shinobi Striker
Knack 2

I donno, seems like an ok followup to Dragon Quest 11 to me. Sprinkled into there will be the smaller titles announced in magazines.

And there's already stuff showing it's head for early 2018 like Code Vein and Dynasty Warriors 9.
You're forgetting something very important.

Earth Defense Force 5 will outsell all of those games, and all Switch games, combined.
 

Bebpo

Banned
Do we have any idea what proportion of revenue ASW generate from arcades vs from console ports? I have no intuition for something like that.

Absolutely no idea either. I've never seen any good break down of Japan's arcade market and the money made in it. I mean you can look up the machine prices but that doesn't tell much since we don't know the market size (small) or percentages.
 
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