electroplankton
Banned
Well, usually DQ games are really less front-loaded.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 22, 2012 (May 28 - Jun 03)
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Well, usually DQ games are really less front-loaded.
Yeah, they tend to have average legs for games overall but long legs for an RPG, IIRC.
One thing you need to remember with DQM is that it's essentially Dragon Quest: Pokemon. Catch 'em all, combine monsters for new ones, participate in daily tournaments, wifi vs multiplayer, etc. Spotpass at certain stores for monsters/etc. 3DS being able to store streetpass data for multiple games should help further. It should definitely have legs, the biggest determinant will be whether the real deal (Pokemon B/W2) results in sales synergy or cannibalism.
electroplankton
Banned
Nintendo and Square Enix will bundle Dragon Quest X with a Black Wii + Classic Controller Pro + USB Memory drive + 1,000 yen Nintendo prepaid point card. No price yet.
http://www.siliconera.com/2012/06/12/dragon-quest-x-keeps-the-wii-alive-with-new-hardware-bundle/
http://www.siliconera.com/2012/06/12/dragon-quest-x-keeps-the-wii-alive-with-new-hardware-bundle/
michaelius
Banned
Data releasing today will have Gundam for PSV right ?
test_account
XP-39C²
My guess is around 30k - 35k yen.
Yep, but it is tomorrow, not today
slaughterking
Member
Miku in August.
MGS collection and Project Diva F. I don't think MGS is going to do anything but Project Diva should pull decent numbers.
There's also Soul Sacrifice coming in 2012, could be "big".
Edit: Oh and there's a Kiseki remake coming in August too.
BassForever
Member
As others have said after MGSHDC, Miku, and P4G it'll be up to TGS to show us some big Vita titles.
DQ X is going to be incredibly fascinating.
Obviously it will not even come close to DQ9 or other titles, but the question is how much less. Also, how does the Wii U version impact things?
Has SE said anything on what they expect?
Obviously it will not even come close to DQ9 or other titles, but the question is how much less. Also, how does the Wii U version impact things?
Has SE said anything on what they expect?
Soul Sacrifice is aimed to "Winter", that is, Q4-2012/Q1-2013, though Inafune wants the game to be released before 2013.
But MGSHDC isn't a big title.
nordique
Member
No they haven't said that yet
What it should be compared to however is the Wii userbase. We also know a Wii U version will be coming, but let's consider the top selling Wii games in Japan?
Anyone have a list of games that sold over a million for the Wii in Japan (and some that came close?)
I think from that list we can decide whether or not DQX, depending on its performance, will be a huge success or not.
For Vita it kinda is though.
DangerousDave
Member
I'm very interested about how Tokyo Jungle sells. It's a pity than digital copies won't be counted.
True but MGSHD didn't sell that well for PS360 when it launched in Japan. I doubt Vita will pull amazing numbers.
Metal Gear Collection on Vita is semi doomed no matter what it did.
If it had released the same time at the same price as the console version people would have mainly skipped it for the PS3 edition, but hardcore fans would have probably gotten some use out of the save transfers.
With this version being so far removed though yet still recent enough that people who wanted their updated MGS 2+3 are by and large quenched by the console version and the market of hardcore Metal Gear fans who own a Vita at this stage and either want it whereever they go or skipped the PS3 version have to be very small indeed.
If it had released the same time at the same price as the console version people would have mainly skipped it for the PS3 edition, but hardcore fans would have probably gotten some use out of the save transfers.
With this version being so far removed though yet still recent enough that people who wanted their updated MGS 2+3 are by and large quenched by the console version and the market of hardcore Metal Gear fans who own a Vita at this stage and either want it whereever they go or skipped the PS3 version have to be very small indeed.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
When i saw Suda Goichi at E3, I mentioned I was thinking of getting Guild 01. He said "Buy Lillipop Chainsaw".
(He has a game in there, right? Hope I didn't screw that one up haha)
(He has a game in there, right? Hope I didn't screw that one up haha)
walking fiend
Member
so, who is willing to bet on the sales of DQX?
The issue is trying to maximize sales of the Wii version IMO. I think ideally they want to max out the Wii sales, and then unveil the Wii U version.
I think it will be early 2013.
NSMRWii
Wii Sports
Wii Fit
MK Wii
WSR
Wii Fit Plus
SSBB
Wii Play
MP8
AC
SMG
MHTri
SMG 2 - either passed 1 million or very close
DKCR - very close to 1 million
Personally I would be very impressed if DQX passes 1 million in Japan considering it's a MMORPG.
walking fiend
Member
If it was a normal retail game, you would be absolutely correct.
However, since it's fee based MMO, most of the revenue they expect will come from the subscription fees anyway. Now selling people the Wii version first, may backfire; that is, people will buy it and then continue to play it until the Wii population runs out of the steam. Now, they have to buy the same game this time on Wii U by spending a capital money; there's a good chance they spend their money somewhere else or at least delay their purchase.
if it passes 1m, it can become one of SE's most commercial success...
I mean, even if they play only for 1y on average, how much will that bring to SE? I think the revenue would be around 300m dollar, around 5m retail game sold at full price, and probably their share of the monthly fee is much more than the retail share.
Wait, why couldn't you just play the Wii version on the Wii U? Is it not fully BC?
If Nintendo/Square are smart (a massive if, though!) they could offer the WiiU version as a free or very cheap downloadable purchase for established members. While that might be a big ask in general, Nintendo starting their 3DS policy of having downloadable versions of their own games available at launch is a sign in the right direction.
walking fiend
Member
I am not sure Wii population dying = everyone buying Wii U. (but to be honest, I didn't consider it thoroughly as a big advantage of Wii U)
there's a rule of thumb: if it makes too much sense, Nintendo won't do that...
But 'maybe' SE offers the player who already have an account a cheap downloadable version or voucher, or maybe extra free months in case of a full price purchase.
But well, they are all 'if's.
electroplankton
Banned
I'd say 1 million units is doable, 2 million units is a bit out of reach.
walking fiend
Member
well, that's what I am willing to be on for, lol
I am against those who think it won't reach 500k; it'll be fun once the game launches.
well, that's the usb bonas, maybe a hat?
I think 1 million is stretching it, though it could get close with the Wii U version.
Right now I'm thinking 500Kish for the Wii version.
walking fiend
Member
I'm not making any sort of ban bet if that's what you are thinking.
And I'm not ready to make a prediction yet.
walking fiend
Member
ban bets are for fools and weaks
I like to see if people can restrain themselves from not coming to post (I can't), but that's something else...let me think of something productive... if I lose, I will study 6 hours straight on my research paper and won't come to GAF before doing so. You can choose yours too
---
well, we are not 'predicting' it, there wouldn't be much fun if we have prepared for it; I am just basing it on my understanding of how popular DQ is and how much effect going MMO can have on it and how much of this effect will be diluted by the fact that unlike FF, DQX is 'the' mainline game
electroplankton
Banned
It's still the main entry from a series that floated around 4 million units in the previous episodes.
lol, maybe it's because he was on the clock for WB at the time.
Alexios
Cores, shaders and BIOS oh my!
I don't think that just because it has the X on the title people will suddenly ignore/overlook/forget that it's an MMORPG spin and therefor buy it in droves regardless. It didn't happen for FFXI so why would it happen for DQX?
Yes, and if half of those buyers would keep subscribing the title for the next couple of years (Wii/WiiU) it could become of the more profitable SE projects.
slaughterking
Member
Totally, yeah. If the Wii version reaches 500k that would be a solid and respectable result. If that would be enough to justify "skipping" a traditional singleplayer sequel is debatable, though. Depends if people stick with it.
djplaeskool
Member
I think FFXI didn't sell a ton initially (fact-checking this now), and that went on to be a massive money-maker through a long-term build up of subscriptions.
What's the general buzz for DQX at the moment? Seen a lot of screens and promos, but not a lot of word-of-mouth coming from testing. (Yeah, yeah, I know...NDA and all that, but by this point in FFXIV's testing cycle, there was chatter...and not of the good kind )
What's the general buzz for DQX at the moment? Seen a lot of screens and promos, but not a lot of word-of-mouth coming from testing. (Yeah, yeah, I know...NDA and all that, but by this point in FFXIV's testing cycle, there was chatter...and not of the good kind )
walking fiend
Member
because XI wasn't 'the' mainline FF, X and XII were; while, there won't be any DQ after X for a good time.
plus, as ^^ said, even XI became hugely successful commercially.
I think there's even a mod here who's beta testing it.
slaughterking
Member
FFXI released very early in the PS2s lifespan and it eventually came out on PC and in international markets, too. It had way more potential to generate money over a long period of time than DQX. The MMO market is also way more competitive now than it was ten years ago.
John tv is playing Dairy Queen.
John tv is playing Dairy Queen.
When all is said and done > 1 million IMO.
How many will keep paying the fee and for how long is the key question for SE.