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Does this sound about right, regarding NDS vs. 3DS launch-aligned sales comparions?

3DS launch -> 2 years 10 months on the market (until late December, 2013) = total sales 11.6 million + unknown 6 months of sales

NDS launch -> 2 years 10 months on the market (until October, 2007) = total sales of 20 million.

So to catch up to NDS, by the end of the year (after M&L4, MH4, PX&Y, and various new hardware releases/bundles), 3DS needs another 8.4 million sales in the next 6 months, or over 300K a week on average.

Yep, that's a tough climb alright!

 

[metalslimer]

The mere fact that your justifying why a Sony handheld is outselling a Nintendo console (especially after the Wii) is horrible. Would anyone have ever expected this?

The mere fact you don't realize the PSP destroyed the Wii in overall sales and outsold for a long period after 2008 is confusing. No, I don't think most people expected Vita to be outselling Wii U right now, but let's not act like the PSP never existed or sold well.

 

[Midnight Moon]

3DS is selling because it has lots of games, Wii U isn't selling because it has almost no games. So once the Wii U has all those games coming out, sells will presumably start to jump right?

4 of the 5 top games are from Nintendo, what does that say?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Damn those Wii U numbers. Has a console this been dead after 6 months?

I think its still tracking above the gamecube.

So once the Wii U has all those games coming out, sells will presumably start to jump right?

No. It needs a steady stream of games something thats impossible without third parties. Of course with the release of MK and 3D and DK sales will jump.

 

[metalslimer]

3DS is selling because it has lots of games, Wii U isn't selling because it has almost no games. So once the Wii U has all those games coming out, sells will presumably start to jump right?

Not exactly. First of all Wii U will never has as many games as 3DS. 3rd party support is still horrendous. 2nd handhelds are much more popular. Evenwith no games the 3DS stayed in the 20k range. The 3DS would not be anywhere close to where it is without 3rd party support because guess what? After Mario Kart drops next spring what does Nintendo do? They have exhausted almost all their big hitters and HD development takes time. This is when 3rd party support should pick up the slack. For reference, let's look at the Wii. Even with huge sellers the Wii collapsed because of droughts and lack of support.

 

[Shantom]

The mere fact that your justifying why a Sony handheld is outselling a Nintendo console (especially after the Wii) is horrible. Would anyone have ever expected this?

The PSP went up against two Nintendo consoles, the Gamecube and Wii, and has outsold them combined. In fact, at the moment:
PSP> GC+Wii+Wii U

 

[michaelius]

I think its still tracking above the gamecube.

Nope it has fallen behind Gamecube few weeks ago.

 

[Midnight Moon]

True handhelds are bigger in Japan, but I hope there will be a turnabout for Wii U. Would hate to cry about investing in a Wii U. But hey it has all those Nintendo games coming and I'm getting every single one...so maybe it wouldn't have been a bad investment for me if I get 20 games out of the system lol.

 

[BishopLamont]

Vita seems to be stabilizing around the 10K mark, nothing spectacular but higher than I thought.

WiiU... is a uhh... yeah. They basically completely pissed away their 1 year head start, by the look of things so far.

I'm expecting a strong attack to be timed with the launch of the new consoles like they did with the 3DS, some big releases and a substantial price cut.

You expected even less? So you expected the price drop to do nothing the baseline? Thats very odd.

>.> ....we don't speak about Adventures.

Stop being a negative nancy. =p

I'm saying that PS3 and 4 support will help Vita, especially for some "Sony" franchise for the Japanese market, as FF.

I would agree with you but the Vita is selling very badly, I mean if the 3DS isn't a viable platform, I don't see how Vita is a viable platform. FFX was announced before the Vita was even released, long before anyone knew how badly the Vita would sell.

The mere fact that your justifying why a Sony handheld is outselling a Nintendo console (especially after the Wii) is horrible. Would anyone have ever expected this?

I'm not justifying anything, what is there to justify? You say it like its a surprising thing, you realise the PSP outsold the Wii? You realise Japan is handheld land? What are you gonna say when the Wii U outsells the Vita at the end of this year? I mean a console thats been out three times as long has sold more than the one thats been out for half a year, gee what a shocker.

I'm not the only one calling out your post.

 

[Aostia]

True handhelds are bigger in Japan, but I hope there will be a turnabout for Wii U. Would hate to cry about investing in a Wii U. But hey it has all those Nintendo games coming and I'm getting every single one...so maybe it wouldn't have been a bad investment for me if I get 20 games out of the system lol.

Wii U will increase its sales once the support will start to hit the market.
And then N could also cut the price for another bump after the release of their actual incoming games.
Expecting a huge turnaround or 3DS-like numbers is a totally different (wrong) thing.

I would agree with you but the Vita is selling very badly, I mean if the 3DS isn't a viable platform, I don't see how Vita is a viable platform. FFX was announced before the Vita was even released, long before anyone knew how badly the Vita would sell.

I suspect that if you are developing a game for PS3, doing a port to Vita is very easy.
Unlike porting it to 3DS.
Plus, some games (especially if in development for PS3) could be easily perceived and marketed to a "Sony" crowd.
Unlike porting it to 3DS.

different thing if we talk about old FF games (such as FFVI for example) that should be re-developed for any platform (so I can eventually see it for 3DS)

 

[BadWolf]

You expected even less? So you expected the price drop to do nothing the baseline? Thats very odd.

Yeah, the price issue was addressed sure but the system still lacks major games to sell it.

Nothing big has been announced since the price cut, by Sony or third parties, iirc.

 

[Aostia]

Yeah, the price issue was addressed sure but the system still lacks major games to sell it.

Nothing big has been announced since the price cut, by Sony or third parties, iirc.

Didn't Sony anounce another first party multiplayer based game recently? Soul Sacrifice sold well in Japan (to be a first party Sony game on a small install base)

 

[djplaeskool]

Didn't Sony anounce another first party multiplayer based game recently? Soul Sacrifice sold well in Japan (to be a first party Sony game on a small install base)

Freedom Wars

 

[Gianni Merryman]

So is Luigi U out next week?
If so, as a side effect along with standalone version NSMBU may make a comeback into top 10.

 

[BishopLamont]

Wii U will increase its sales once the support will start to hit the market.
And then N could also cut the price for another bump after the release of their actual incoming games.
Expecting a huge turnaround or 3DS-like numbers is a totally different (wrong) thing.




I suspect that if you are developing a game for PS3, doing a port to Vita is very easy.
Unlike porting it to 3DS.
Plus, some games (especially if in development for PS3) could be easily perceived and marketed to a "Sony" crowd.
Unlike porting it to 3DS.

different thing if we talk about old FF games (such as FFVI for example) that should be re-developed for any platform (so I can eventually see it for 3DS)

Who says anything about porting from PS3 to 3DS? 3DS can't get exclusive games made for it?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Nope it has fallen behind Gamecube few weeks ago.

Wow. What titles does Nintendo have for Japan this holiday?

 

[BadWolf]

Didn't Sony anounce another first party multiplayer based game recently? Soul Sacrifice sold well in Japan (to be a first party Sony game on a small install base)

Freedom Wars will do good as well I'm sure but that's not good enough to give life to the system, they need something big.

At least Square has said it has interest in making a new Final Fantasy game for Vita (not a port but a new one), so there's that but its nothing concrete.

 

[metalslimer]

Wow. What titles does Nintendo have for Japan this holiday?

Same as the west

Wii Part U
Wii Fit U
Windwaker HD
DKCR TF
Mario 3d World

 

[StreetsAhead]

Because I think it bears repeating, here is Wii U's release schedule as it stands today, from now until the end of the year.

June 27
Injustice: Gods Among Us (Warner Bros.)
F1 Race Stars Powered Up Edition (Code Masters)

July 12
Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure (Activision)

July 13
Pikmin 3 (Nintendo)
NSLU - retail (Nintendo)
*White Premium Set (Nintendo)
*Wii Remote Plus + Nintendo Land bundle (Nintendo)
*Wii Remote Charging Packs

July 18
Sniper Elite (Ubisoft)

July 25
Lego City Undercover (Nintendo)
*Wii U Game Pad Battery Expansion Pack

August 8
Yakuza 1&2 HD (Sega)

August 24
The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo)

September 26
The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (Nintendo)
Epic Mickey 2 (???)

Autumn
Sonic: Lost World (Sega)

End of 2013
Super Mario 3D World (Nintendo)

2013
Wii Party U (Nintendo)
Wii Fit U (Nintendo)
Rayman Legends (Nintendo)

2014: Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros. for Wii U, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Soft's X
Unconfirmed: Yarn Yoshi, Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem, New Legend of Zelda for Wii U, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Mario & Sonic at the Sochi Winter Olympic Games, Art Academy U

 

[Hellraider]

Freedom Wars will do good as well I'm sure but that's not good enough to give life to the system, they need something big.

At least Square has said it has interest in making a new Final Fantasy game for Vita (not a port but a new one), so there's that but its nothing concrete.

I believe it's a liiiitle premature to make predictions for Freedom Wars.Hell, has the genre even been confirmed?For all we know whatever it is might be the next japanese phenomenon. Althought to be honest I understand what you are saying and you will probably be right.

Also, Tabata working on FFXV pretty much crashes any hopes for a Vita Final Fantasy game.If there ever was (or is) one it would have been from him.

 

[Aostia]

Who says anything about porting from PS3 to 3DS? 3DS can't get exclusive games made for it?

Weren't we talking about: FF is strong also in the west, while DQ is more Japan-centric?
So, maybe better put FF on home console that are selling HW/SW also in the west, keeping DQ to the most important console for Japan (that is an handheld)
Vita porting (multiplatform games) from FF series derive from the PS3 safe bet SE is doing, I think.

 

[metalslimer]

Because I think it bears repeating, here is Wii U's release schedule as it stands today, from now until the end of the year.

June 27
Injustice: Gods Among Us (Warner Bros.)
F1 Race Stars Powered Up Edition (Code Masters)

July 12
Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure (Activision)

July 13
Pikmin 3 (Nintendo)
NSLU - retail (Nintendo)
*White Premium Set (Nintendo)
*Wii Remote Plus + Nintendo Land bundle (Nintendo)
*Wii Remote Charging Packs

July 18
Sniper Elite (Ubisoft)

July 25
Lego City Undercover (Nintendo)
*Wii U Game Pad Battery Expansion Pack

August 8
Yakuza 1&2 HD (Sega)

August 24
The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo)

September 26
The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (Nintendo)
Epic Mickey 2 (???)

Autumn
Sonic: Lost World (Sega)

End of 2013
Super Mario 3D World (Nintendo)

2013
Wii Party U (Nintendo)
Wii Fit U (Nintendo)
Rayman Legends (Nintendo)

Wait Donkey Kong isnt launching 2013 in Japan? Wtf

 

[Ratrat]

Well I hope The Last of Us does well next week. Anyone have Uncharted numbers?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Same as the west

Wii Part U
Wii Fit U
Windwaker HD
DKCR TF
Mario 3d World

It ain't looking good but not bad either. They really should of got MK out for this holiday and with a price cut ideally.

 

[BishopLamont]

Weren't we talking about: FF is strong also in the west, while DQ is more Japan-centric?
So, maybe better put FF on home console that are selling HW/SW also in the west, keeping DQ to the most important console for Japan (that is an handheld)
Vita porting (multiplatform games) from FF series derive from the PS3 safe bet SE is doing, I think.

Vita isn't selling in the west though so how is that any more viable than the 3DS? It makes more sense to either just go PS3 or 3DS.

Take for example FF Type-0, it wasn't even released in the west for the PSP, so FF Type-1 would make more sense on the 3DS.

Wait Donkey Kong is launching 2013 in Japan? Wtf

It will have been 3 years since DKCR released when the game comes out, plus alot of ground work has already been laid out for the sequel, its not surprising at all.

It ain't looking good but not bad either. They really should of got MK out for this holiday and with a price cut ideally.

They're probably thinking MK is a better system seller throughout the year, more so than SM3DW, which is why they're releasing it first quarter next year. They'll probably hold out on the price drop and will coincide it with MK's release instead. I'm not sure which is more likely, near the end of this year or early next year. They'll most likely try to replicate the 3DS strategy and price drop it near the end of this year, or maybe they think the software at the end of this year is enough, which is what I personally believe.

 

[Thorgal]

That Tabata (CC/T3B/Type-0) is now on FFXV and Yasue (Portable KH) is on KH3 makes me continue to wonder about handheld output outside of Dragon Quest and Bravely Default.

I feel their survey suggests there's at least one more Bravely Default 3DS game coming though.

Do you think for the time being that SE is is focusing on next gen consoles ?

The showings of XV and 3KH would seem to indicate that theory.

 

[schuelma]

Wait Donkey Kong is launching 2013 in Japan? Wtf

Right now it doesn't have a release window in Japan, but I imagine it will make 2013- the original is almost a million seller.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Wait Donkey Kong is launching 2013 in Japan? Wtf

Donkey Kong TF's release is TBC for Japan. It might not launch until next year here, like Zelda 3DS.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Well I hope The Last of Us does well next week. Anyone have Uncharted numbers?

Uncharted: 38k
UC2: 104k
UC3: 168k

Naughty Dog IP's tend to well in Japan for some reason compared to most other western studios.

 

[Aostia]

Vita isn't selling in the west though so how is that any more viable than the 3DS? It makes more sense to either just go PS3 or 3DS.

Take for example FF Type-0, it wasn't even released in the west for the PSP, so FF Type-1 would make more sense on the 3DS.

I tried to point out my opinion, if you don't understand it or don't agree, nevermind.
go ask SE why they aren't putting FF games on 3DS


About DK I think it will hit Japan this year. Zelda 3DS can wait, considering how big MH and Pokemon are in Japan, on handheld consoles, while there is no reason to postpone a Wii U first party game that could be potentially interesting for the Japanese home market

They'll probably go with the price cut and Mario Kart for the Spring 14

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Weren't we talking about: FF is strong also in the west, while DQ is more Japan-centric?
So, maybe better put FF on home console that are selling HW/SW also in the west, keeping DQ to the most important console for Japan (that is an handheld)
Vita porting (multiplatform games) from FF series derive from the PS3 safe bet SE is doing, I think.

After Lightning Returns and ARR XIV are out, what other FFs do you expect PS3 to get though? FF is going PS4(+Xbone), which seems a bridge too far. Vita can barely handle PS3 ports as it is.

Vita's only hope longer term is getting PSP's exclusive franchises (Type-0, Dissidia) brought over, but even in that case why bother? Why not go to healthier platforms like iOS or 3DS?

 

[Hellraider]

Uncharted: 38k
UC2: 104k
UC3: 168k

Naughty Dog IP's tend to well in Japan for some reason compared to most other western studios.

Something something Crash bandicoot something!

With Western heavy games like these I find it really hard to make any Japanese predictions.Would a 200k LTD seem out of this world?200k for a new IP in Japan is a pretty bold prediction but it's Naughty Dog and it's on a healthy platform.And I feel like the game's genre makes a perfect fit for PS3.

 

[Aostia]

After Lightning Returns and ARR XIV are out, what other FFs do you expect PS3 to get though? FF is going PS4(+Xbone), which seems a bridge too far. Vita can barely handle PS3 ports as it is.

Vita's only hope longer term is getting PSP's exclusive franchises (Type-0, Dissidia) brought over, but even in that case why bother? Why not go to healthier platforms like iOS or 3DS?

Probably FFXII HD?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=593086

 

[SmokyDave]

Uncharted: 38k
UC2: 104k
UC3: 168k

Naughty Dog IP's tend to well in Japan for some reason compared to most other western studios.

Because they're fucking great. That's my theory.

 

[OnFire331]

Do you think for the time being that SE is is focusing on next gen consoles ?

The showings of XV and 3KH would seem to indicate that theory.

I hope so. Despite really enjoying their handheld output this generation, I would rather have a good console output from SE this time around. Especially if most handheld titles that previously would haven been made for DS were now made for mobile devices instead.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Same as the west

Wii Part U
Wii Fit U
Windwaker HD
DKCR TF
Mario 3d World

Wait Donkey Kong is launching 2013 in Japan? Wtf

wat.

I'm going to assume you meant 'isn't'.

 

[Currygan]

20./20. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥5.985) - 2.224 / 521.251 (-9%)


lol que

 

[BishopLamont]

I tried to point out my opinion, if you don't understand it or don't agree, nevermind.
go ask SE why they aren't putting FF games on 3DS


About DK I think it will hit Japan this year. Zelda 3DS can wait, considering how big MH and Pokemon are in Japan, on handheld consoles, while there is no reason to postpone a Wii U first party game that could be potentially interesting for the Japanese home market

They'll probably go with the price cut and Mario Kart for the Spring 14

I understand it perfectly, but yes obviously I don't agree. Just because they haven't released any FF yet, doesn't mean they won't, I mean Theatrhythm is quasi FF already.

Yes DKC will do wonders for the Wii U if its released at the end of this year in Japan.

I wholeheartedly agree. TLoU doing 100k+ would be great for a new western IP. Anyone got numbers for the best selling new Western IP?

I think TLoU will easily do 100k, not sure if it reaches 200k though.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Because they're fucking great. That's my theory.

I wholeheartedly agree. TLoU doing 100k+ would be great for a new western IP. Anyone got numbers for the best selling new Western IP?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Probably FFXII HD?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=593086

Well, by the time a theoretical XII HD would be ready for planning we'll have X/X-2 HD sales data to see if future Vita ports really are viable.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Do you think for the time being that SE is is focusing on next gen consoles ?

The showings of XV and 3KH would seem to indicate that theory.

I think SE likely just laid the entirety of their PS4/Xbone lineup out on the table. Meanwhile they still have unannounced 3DS games.

 

[Aostia]

Well, by the time a theoretical XII HD would be ready for planning we'll have X/X-2 HD sales data to see if future Vita ports really are viable.

probably, but keep in mind that the Vita "port" will probably be profitable with very low sales. I dont think that SE expectations for that version are so high.

About DK I repeat that I'm almost sure that, if Nintendo is not trying to commit suicide for real, they'll release it within 2013 also in Japan.
Only interesting games (sales-wise of course) up to now are Pikmin (July, with the White 32Gb model), Zelda (September) and Mario for the three remaining months (October. November, December). I totally expect to see DK hitting the market during one of those three months.

 

[schuelma]

probably, but keep in mind that the Vita "port" will probably be profitable with very low sales. I dont think that SE expectations for that version are so high.

About DK I repeat that I'm almost sure that, if Nintendo is not trying to commit suicide for real, they'll release it within 2013 also in Japan.
Only interesting games (sales-wise of course) up to now are Pikmin (July, with the White 32Gb model), Zelda (September) and Mario for the three remaining months (October. November, December). I totally expect to see DK hitting the market during one of those three months.

You are also missing Wii U Party and Wii Fit U.

 

[Mileena]

You are also missing Wii U Party and Wii Fit U.

Damn, how could anyone forget those.

 

[Aostia]

You are also missing Wii U Party and Wii Fit U.

Uhm...you are right. And it wasn't intentional.
My subconscious was trying to tell me something?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Yes, Playstation Vita.

It actually took the Vita 48 weeks to sub-5K.

The Wii U beat it by a good 20 weeks.

 

[Aostia]

It actually took the Vita 48 weeks to sub-5K.

The Wii U beat it by a good 20 weeks.

but Wii U debut was better, right? I think that LTD after the same amount of week on the market would be very similar.

 

[Pein]

wow, never expected Luigi's mansion to do so good.

 

[shinra-bansho]

but Wii U debut was better, right? I think that LTD after the same amount of week on the market would be very similar.

There's a chart earlier in the thread. Eyeballing it, launch-aligned the Wii U is about 200K or so ahead. It shouldn't cross streams with the Vita.

It will cross streams with the PS3 though in the coming weeks I think.

 

[schuelma]

Damn, how could anyone forget those.

Well we are talking in a sales thread about potential games making an impact on sales, so those 2 games should be pretty relevant no?