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[Kanann]

Side Story:
About Nintendo Switch stocks, Hong Kong and some SEA countries will meet supply hell starting this week, price will go up everywhere. If you don't have one yet, do not wait, go buy now.

 

[KAORIII]

With more than 100k opening Arms won't sell only 300k. Half million should be the bar of success in Japan with 1m a huge success.

But if it sell 50k fw, the bar of success should still be 300k (or 500k), right? I mean, as a new ip, 300k LTD will be a pretty good result.
Anyway, I don't know Nintendo's target, so it's just my expectation.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Good start for arms. Also Zelda and Mario kart continue with strong sales. SW sales are looking good so far. Hopefully supply doesn't drop back as low as it was previous weeks but I'm not expecting anything big.

PS4 continues to perform surprisingly well, looks like it may have gotten a MHW bump. It's going to close to if not have its biggest year this year.

 

[Passose]

Side Story:
About Nintendo Switch stocks, Hong Kong and some SEA countries will meet supply hell starting this week, price will go up everywhere. If you don't have one yet, do not wait, go buy now.

already bought it at launch so no worry here

 

[LordOcidax]

With Eshop DD can be over 130k...

 

[kuroneko0509]

Side Story:
About Nintendo Switch stocks, Hong Kong and some SEA countries will meet supply hell starting this week, price will go up everywhere. If you don't have one yet, do not wait, go buy now.

damn. I guess maxshit ends up having the last laugh after all

 

[Tenbatsu]

damn. I guess maxshit ends up having the last laugh after all

lol

 

[Chris1964]

All games with >500k sales within a year can be counted on one hand nowadays, while there's also a group of games that are considered successful (or at least reasonably) that get stuck between 300k and 400k. To be very strict, if 500k is the minimum to be called successful, it would mean that Persona 5, Dark Souls 3 and NieR: Automata aren't successful. It isn't as black/white as both you and I portray it right now. Youkai Watch 3 of course did sell a shipload of copies, but was it a success? No, because the measure of success is different for that game. Same for Monster Hunter XX.

What makes the measure of success low for Arms? Nintendo treated it as the next major new IP after Splatoon. Comparison can't be with PS4 titles.

 

[TheLegendaryN]

What makes the measure of success low for Arms? Nintendo treated it as the next major new IP after Splatoon. Comparison can't be with PS4 titles.

I thought you were talking in general. My bad. For ARMS, I expect similar results yeah.

 

[Yagami_Sama]

Great number for ARMS. Even though is not a game that I liked, great first week. Now I am interested in know how Pokken DX will perform.

July will be a very interesting month.

 

[Vena]

PS4 is holding up better than expected (I thought it would sell less than 20K/weekly in the slow summer months).

Switch, well, the problem is always the same:
Lack of stocks make it impossible to gauge the potential.

It's been under 20k regularly so your expectations aren't that far off.

 

[watershed]

Great start for ARMS. Switch number is lower than I expected. I hope Nintendo can raise the baseline over the summer.

 

[casiopao]

I am pretty sure that Nintendo goal is a lot lower than 3 Million or 2 or 1... Even Breath of the Wild only needed 2 Million to break even.... Also Pokkens have Pokemons.... 3 Million is Splatoon level of success AKA a phenomenom. BTW i think that is possible 3 million.

This is not about all about financial profit.

Lets said, even if Zelda BoTW reach profit with 3 million sales, those number would be a disaster level as opportunity cost wasted on such small sales number is going to be absolutely huge which is the same case for ARMS here.

It probably would be profitable with 1 million sales. But does that mean that the whole project is successful? I would said no as if thats the case, they should go and develop other games/genre which is able to sold even more there.

 

[FreedomFighter]

That's almost 12k difference. Maybe it's catching up to MC from previous numbers?

They must've made adjustments.

 

[Chris1964]

But if it sell 50k fw, the bar of success should still be 300k (or 500k), right? I mean, as a new ip, 300k LTD will be a pretty good result.
Anyway, I don't know Nintendo's target, so it's just my expectation.

Just like Arms won't become the next Splatoon at sales it wouldn't open with only 50k. There were many hints how things were improving rapidly last days for preorders, promotion and general interest around the game.

 

[Gradivus]

so do we expect Media Create or Famitsu to release an article about the switch selling 1 million units before the next sales thread is up?

 

[OryoN]

This pretty much falls within my expectations:

Not getting my hopes up for a huge spike in Switch sales. I'm expecting low 40k-ish numbers during ARMS week, at the very best, with 35k being my bet.

...If it falls in line with my 35k expectation, then I hope that they can at least maintain that level of weekly shipments for the rest of the year. If not, then it's going to look really pathetic by the time Splatoon 2 launches... they'd have failed to capitalize on hit games, AND ultimately a hit console.

Good opening for ARMS, but the stock situation truly has me a bit concerned now. It's very likely that Nintendo held back some stock for ARMS launch, yet, sub-40k was all they could put out. My new hope is that they can keep shipment to this kevel consistently, but I just don't see that happening. Splatoon 2...

 

[Laplasakos]

It's been under 20k regularly so your expectations aren't that far off.

Not really. It's been under 20k from mid April until now, with some 20k+ weeks. After the slim release and price cut it had really good sales.

BTW, really nice opening for Arms. Wonder what the LTD will be.

 

[Vena]

Not really. It's been under 20k from mid April until now, with some 20k+ weeks. After the slim release and price cut it had really good sales.

BTW, really nice opening for Arms. Wonder what the LTD will be.

Which was the point. The slow/weak summer line-up + major software droughts have resulted in sub-20k weeks... which is April until now (and continuing) with some fluxuations around it.

You said what I said what was the idea to reinforce what was initially quoted. So... I am confused.

 

[LordOcidax]

Famitsu numbers.
https://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

ARMS 122,007


Nintendo Switch --------49,440
Playstation 4 ------------- 22,117
New Nintendo 3DS ----12,112
Playstation Vita ---------- 4,573
Playstation 3 -------------324
Wii U-------------------------253
Xbox One S -------------- 69

 

[Zedark]

.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

Famitsu has ARMS at 122,007. They do include download cards, so the cards apparently sold quite well.

Amazing launch for ARMS considering the install base of Switch in Japan, even more for a new fighting game IP

 

[Nibel]

via Oscar Lemaire

ARMS is the unlicensed fighting game that has had the best debut in 7 years in Japan. More than double of Street Fighter V.

 

[Laplasakos]

Which was the point. The slow/weak summer line-up + major software droughts have resulted in sub-20k weeks... which is April until now (and continuing) with some fluxuations around it.

You said what I said what was the idea to reinforce what was initially quoted. So... I am confused.

You used the work ''regularly'' which doesn't really translate to the last two months but longer. At least i read it that way.

Anyway, what caused the 5k jump for the PS4? There wasn't any significant release so could it be the MH World announcement? Unless i am mistaken, i remember that PS4 had a 4k jump without any new software the week FFVIIR was announced.

Also YSVIII numbers are strangely good considering that it was already available for VITA. I guess the game has good reception?

 

[Aostia]

wait, so it is Splatoon level of success or death?
and I was me, the pessimistic one?

 

[boiled goose]

Nintendo stacks year one with software...

Fails to capitalize on demand with sufficient supply.

What a mess.... :/

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Nintendo stacks year one with software...

Fails to capitalize on demand with sufficient supply.

What a mess.... :/

Its not good but remember this is a 6+ year long marathon, not a sprint.

 

[LordOcidax]

wait, so it is Splatoon level of success or death?
and I was me, the pessimistic one?

Acording to Famitsu 156,610 vs 122,007. Almost...

Its not good but remember this is a 6+ year long marathon, not a sprint.

Nintendo is doomed no matter what... lol

 

[metalslimer]

Nintendo stacks year one with software...

Fails to capitalize on demand with sufficient supply.

What a mess.... :/

I mean I don't expect this to be an aberrant year in terms of software for Nintendo. Next year could be an even bigger year if there are things like Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Kirby, Yoshi, and maybe Smash.

With the consolidation of systems I don't think they ever really have to worry about a 5-6 month software drought ever again. This is what killed the Wiis momentum led to an even easier failure for Wii U.

 

[Peléo]

.

Love the attach rate graphs, thank you for providing them. Curious to see if Splatoon 2 will reach +70% or some other crazy number. Which is certainly easier on a console's first year.

 

[Zedark]

Love the attach rate graphs, thank you for providing them. Curious to see if Splatoon 2 will reach +70% or some other crazy number. Which is certainly easier on a console's first year.

Thanks, glad you enjoy them! I personally think Splatoon 2 has a chance at reaching an >70% attach rate in its second week, although it's not a guarantee at all yet of course. Personally think it can do > 1 million in 2 weeks, so we'll see if that pans out!

 

[Nirolak]

To follow up on yesterday's discussion, Terra Wars is also a mobile/PC game, and is coming later this year, while Terra Battle 2 will be out in the Summer.

 

[Vena]

To follow up on yesterday's discussion, Terra Wars is also a mobile/PC game, and is coming later this year, while Terra Battle 2 will be out in the Summer.

Anything on the gameplay style?

 

[Mory Dunz]

What number did you think they need to be considered as a success? 1 Million WW?

No way.

At least 4m imo. USA might have to carry it a bit

 

[Nirolak]

Anything on the gameplay style?

No. All we know is that it uses claymation models captured with photogrammetry, with gameplay details coming after Terra Battle 2 launches this Summer. Sakaguchi did say that the title will give you a pretty good idea of how it plays though.

Unless you mean Terra Battle 2, which sounds like it's built around the same core mechanics as Terra Battle, but expanded/re-imagined and with higher production values for how they present it.

 

[Laplasakos]

As i said earlier, really good debut for Arms but since i am seeing people comparing it with other fighting games i can't understand why they don't mention JoJo PS3 at all which debuted with 425k.

 

[whyamihere]

With Eshop DD can be over 130k...

Honestly, this is impressive. I wonder if it can get 1mil worldwide. Would be pretty crazy for a new fighting franchise.

Famitsu numbers.
https://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

ARMS 122,007


Nintendo Switch --------49,440
Playstation 4 ------------- 22,117
New Nintendo 3DS ----12,112
Playstation Vita ---------- 4,573
Playstation 3 -------------324
Wii U-------------------------253
Xbox One S -------------- 69

nice.

 

[Eliseo]

Duckroll, do you consider TB a success? and why do you think it didn't have the boom like granblue fantasy.

 

[Nirolak]

Duckroll, do you consider TB a success? and why do you think it didn't have the boom like granblue fantasy.

Terra Battle had a pretty strong launch (was frequently in the 10-20 range), but it had no meaningful post launch support for a very long time, and lost its entire audience.

Mobile games update every 1-2 weeks these days with major content.

They're trying to follow this approach with the sequel, having a new chapter every week.

 

[Plainsong]

Great start for ARMS. Pleased as I'm really enjoying it.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Honestly, this is impressive. I wonder if it can get 1mil worldwide. Would be pretty crazy for a new fighting franchise.

I think it should do 1 million easily. Depending on the reception in the US it may be able to go on and become a multimillion selling game.

 

[Oregano]

Terra Battle had a pretty strong launch (was frequently in the 10-20 range), but it had no meaningful post launch support for a very long time, and lost its entire audience.

Mobile games update every 1-2 weeks these days with major content.

They're trying to follow this approach with the sequel, having a new chapter every week.

That's probably one of the key reasons they are teaming with actual game studios for both games too.

 

[lwilliams3]

Just 74 (just 74!) more and Arms would have had a better opening week than Tekken 7 and Street Fighter V combined.

Wow!!

 

[Nibel]

Famitsu numbers.
https://www.famitsu.com/biz/ranking/

ARMS 122,007


Nintendo Switch --------49,440
Playstation 4 ------------- 22,117
New Nintendo 3DS ----12,112
Playstation Vita ---------- 4,573
Playstation 3 -------------324
Wii U-------------------------253
Xbox One S -------------- 69

Why is their HW number for Switch so different from MC

 

[Phife Dawg]

Well, download cards are also included for other software like Zelda or Mario Kart, but these games have lower LTD numbers than Media Create.
So I'm pretty sure that this difference is another typical tracker difference and no related to download cards (also Amazon.jp is only tracked by Media Create, and they were the ones selling the download codes with the Splatoon 2 discount, so these cards are not counted by Famitsu).

Are DL codes sold by Amazon (not the physical cards) really tracked?

 

[casiopao]

No way.

At least 4m imo. USA might have to carry it a bit

4M is even more optimistic than me lol. I can see ARMS LTD in the end reaching 3 mill or exceeding the number a bit while below 4 mil WW.

Nintendo stacks year one with software...

Fails to capitalize on demand with sufficient supply.

What a mess.... :/

Evergreen titles from Nintendo will still go strong all till the end of generation though.

As i said earlier, really good debut for Arms but since i am seeing people comparing it with other fighting games i can't understand why they don't mention JoJo PS3 at all which debuted with 425k.

I think Jojo......had such a crazy backlash which cause its price and second weeks disastrous collapse right that it is hard to compare lol.

 

[ggx2ac]

No. All we know is that it uses claymation models captured with photogrammetry, with gameplay details coming after Terra Battle 2 launches this Summer. Sakaguchi did say that the title will give you a pretty good idea of how it plays though.

Unless you mean Terra Battle 2, which sounds like it's built around the same core mechanics as Terra Battle, but expanded/re-imagined and with higher production values for how they present it.

The first thing I think of when I hear Terra Wars is that it's an Advance Wars style game, but then the image doesn't look like it.

And then I get the title confused with Terra Formars.

Next guess is that it looks like it could be a MOBA going by the image but that might be a stretch.

 

[Nirolak]

The first thing I think of when I hear Terra Wars is that it's an Advance Wars style game, but then the image doesn't look like it.

And then I get the title confused with Terraformars.

Next guess is that it looks like it could be a MOBA going by the image but that might be a stretch.

I think the idea is that it's a strategy RPG given he drew parallels to how Final Fantasy was setup with Terra Battle 2 being a new mainline game, and this is a spin-off with a strategy like title a la Final Fantasy Tactics.

The full image has a lot of varying terrain height and things like bridges and rivers that would fit with a Tactics-esque game as well:

 

[Eliseo]

Terra Battle had a pretty strong launch (was frequently in the 10-20 range), but it had no meaningful post launch support for a very long time, and lost its entire audience.

Mobile games update every 1-2 weeks these days with major content.

They're trying to follow this approach with the sequel, having a new chapter every week.

Interesting, so the quality of the game was not the reason it tanked.

 

[Nirolak]

Interesting, so the quality of the game was not the reason it tanked.

Yeah. It held for a surprisingly long time given the lack of updates.