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[Soriku]

Tales of can be on any system, there is no guarantee the next major one will be for PS4, if I were Bandai I'd target PS3/smartphone. Biohazard interest in Japan has been in decline since Capcom turned it into western bro shooter. Ryu ga Gotoku could probably sell a couple PS4s, but the next one will likely be cross generational again. FFXV is vaporware, and IF it ever comes out, it will be so late that it won't help the PS4 much. FF games generally don't. It can bump up the numbers a bit, but they are so front heavy, that if there isn't the stock, it can't move them.



Yeah, I don't see them having much of an impact. If MK8 can't improve Wii U sales by much, why would people think less relevant games will for the PS4?



There is a shelf life. If the PS4 takes too long to become valuable enough to purchase, it won't ever. Every day it waits, handhelds get more powerful and the PS4 looks more expensive. They will probably have to do a price cut even before there is anything worth buying at this rate.

I don't see Namco making a mainline Tales on smartphones at all, but they already have made a few smartphone spinoffs. If Namco makes another Tales on PS3 I could see a Zestiria 2 reusing assets, but I don't see another Tales with a brand new world. Tales is most popular on Sony consoles, and after the PS3 is the PS4. And I don't think I'd say the next Yakuza will be cross gen is likely...

Even with MK8, the Wii U is lacking notable third party support, and even the current Nintendo lineup might not be enough yet. Not that the PS4 situation is much better at the moment, but it's still the go-to for JP third parties wanting to make a console game.

Your "handhelds get more powerful and the PS4 looks more expensive" doesn't make much sense. Any new handhelds that are going to come out are going to be expensive. Even if they're priced similarly to 3DS/Vita, at the same time the PS4 is going to have price cuts. So no, the PS4 isn't going to look more expensive. The price can only go down.

Also there's not much reason to cut the price if there are no worthwhile games. It's not just a price issue.

 

[KillerMan91]

1)Tales of can be on any system, there is no guarantee the next major one will be for PS4, if I were Bandai I'd target PS3/smartphone. 2)Biohazard interest in Japan has been in decline since Capcom turned it into western bro shooter. Ryu ga Gotoku could probably sell a couple PS4s, but the next one will likely be cross generational again. FFXV is vaporware, and IF it ever comes out, it will be so late that it won't help the PS4 much. 3) FF games generally don't. It can bump up the numbers a bit, but they are so front heavy, that if there isn't the stock, it can't move them.



Yeah, I don't see them having much of an impact. 4)If MK8 can't improve Wii U sales by much, why would people think less relevant games will for the PS4?



There is a shelf life. If the PS4 takes too long to become valuable enough to purchase, it won't ever. Every day it waits, handhelds get more powerful and the PS4 looks more expensive. They will probably have to do a price cut even before there is anything worth buying at this rate.

1)Namco tried that last gen with mainline Tales going to Wii. Didn't work out.

2)Compared to PS1 gen? True. Compared to PS2 gen? Not true. Both RE5 and RE6 sold more than RE4.

3)PS3 sold 240k units during the week XIII launched. Biggest week of its life. Also ltd for PS3 before that week was 4 million that is rather poor considering it had been on the market over 3 years. Despite this retailers were willing to stock huge amount of consoles

4) Customers between Nintendo titles overlap a lot more than between different third party franchises (Compare GC to PS3).

 

[1st Course]

Square: "Our games are very compatible with Vita. We will make more Vita games"

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=844139

 

[Jamix012]

Look at what PS3 was during the same time and look at what it is now, it's not that hard to figure out that the PS4 will be 'successful'.

Oh yeah! PS3 will be as successful as PS2. It has to be! It's got Tales, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid.

There's more to the console market than just the games coming out.

 

[sörine]

Namco really missed their best opportunity to transition mainline Tales to handhelds with PSP. I guess they can try again with phones in the future.

 

[Soriku]

Oh yeah! PS3 will be as successful as PS2. It has to be! It's got Tales, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid.

There's more to the console market than just the games coming out.

He didn't say the PS4 will be as successful as the PS3.

Namco really missed their best opportunity to transition mainline Tales to handhelds with PSP.

Thank the Based God.

 

[Jamix012]

He didn't say the PS4 will be as successful as the PS3.



Thank the Based God.

I suppose, however before the PS4 launched people were setting the baseline of success as "PS3 Sales."

 

[shinra-bansho]

They are still contracting, as best as I can tell. YoY sales are up, however. The important thing to distinguish is short term trends vs. long term ones.

I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing here? In the US market console hardware TTM essentially bottomed out prior to the launch of the new systems, to the lowest point since October 2006. It has been moving steadily upwards for the last 7 months in earnest. It actually bottomed out at a lower point at the last generational transition.

It's not necessarily more successful, just far easier to control. A market with lower end production may actually be more profitable, but it also lowers the barriers to entry and allows competitors to come in. Once you've whittled the market down to 4 or 5 big players, they have a vested interest in preventing anyone else from becoming a major player.

On the more successful notion, I'm mainly just going off of what I recall of an HBS Professor's research into blockbusters providing better average returns; although I haven't read her book or looked in depth at her research. I don't really think it's unfathomable that picking winners and focusing on making them a success can be more profitable in absolute terms than having more and smaller projects and divided focus. I think the heightening of production values is as much consumer-driven, if not more so. The people buying software are the ones placing value on these dimensions.

On the latter point, has the market not always been one of a few big players?

Diversity is also needed. If we are looking from the perspective of someone who loves GTA and Uncharted and Madden on consoles, having people who also like Nintendogs or Singstar or Wii Fit around and in large numbers is actually important. In the short term, these audiences may seem like they're a distraction, or an annoyance -- in reality, though, markets tend to be most stable when they appeal to a wide variety of audiences with a wide variety of interests. It's not impossible to set up a market which only interests a single demographic, but it's less easy and less stable long term. When markets contract, they tend to start by losing everything but their core demographic; at that point, the market is vulnerable both to disruption and consumption by outside forces.

I'm not particularly arguing for or against a market that largely caters to the audience for GTA rather than the audience for Singstar or an audience that caters to both equally well. I think it's just the reality of the market today that the consoles, and perhaps consoles in general, are not the best product for the market for Singstar right now. While publishers know the other audience, they generally know what they want, and they know how to make it. I don't think it's some grand conspiratorial endeavour, I think their outputs are reactive to their perception of the market reality.

I expect as the market consolidates towards fewer releases, we'll see similar revenues simply split across fewer titles. I think this actually may be a function of game pricing elevating last gen and shaping consumer behavior to an extent towards known quantities, as with greater expense comes greater consumer risk.

 

[Sakura]

Normal as in pre-Wii. There was a graph posted in the last NPD thread showing that things aren't much different now if the Wii was removed from the equation when comparing to previous generations.

And really, is it the market becoming weaker or do people just not want a WiiU? That product had failure written all over it from day one imo.

And why would you remove Wii from the equation other than to fit a narrative? It's not like 100% of Wii sales were from casuals who don't buy regular games or something. May 2014 we have at most 290k total between the XBO and PS4 in the US. Compared to 237k between the 360 and PS3 in May 2007. The Wii did 338k May 2007. You can remove it if you want but it's still pretty significant. Either way, I don't see much relevance in a graph at this point of PS4 and XBO sales. You could've had a graph 6 months into the 3DS's life and shown sales were better than the DS, but where are we now.

In any case, I wasn't arguing that the market was becoming "weaker" all I said was that pre-Wii levels would be a contraction, which it would be. Lack of growth isn't really good for any industry as far as I understand.

 

[Kandinsky]

The same third parties that needed the Vita I'm sure.

They were never going to put main game series on a handheld, so yeah same ones.

Which third party are you thinking of who hasn't transitioned to smartphone, or isn't content with 3DS/PS3?

Do you really see RE7, Next tales, Yakuza, Tekken, SC, Musou, etc going mobile/3ds/ps3? because I dont.

Oh yeah! PS3 will be as successful as PS2. It has to be! It's got Tales, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid.

There's more to the console market than just the games coming out.

Sure the market is shrinking, I give you that, hence why I said 'success'.

 

[BadWolf]

And why would you remove Wii from the equation other than to fit a narrative? It's not like 100% of Wii sales were from casuals who don't buy regular games or something. May 2014 we have at most 290k total between the XBO and PS4 in the US. Compared to 237k between the 360 and PS3 in May 2007. The Wii did 338k May 2007. You can remove it if you want but it's still pretty significant. Either way, I don't see much relevance in a graph at this point of PS4 and XBO sales. You could've had a graph 6 months into the 3DS's life and shown sales were better than the DS, but where are we now.

Either way, I wasn't arguing that the market was becoming "weaker" all I said was that pre-Wii levels would be a contraction, which it would be. Lack of growth isn't really good for any industry as far as I understand.

Simply because the Wii is a special case.

I'm looking to the norm across generations, instead of a one time explosion.

 

[Opiate]

I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing here? In the US market console hardware TTM essentially bottomed out prior to the launch of the new systems, to the lowest point since October 2006. It has been moving steadily upwards for the last 7 months in earnest. It actually bottomed out at a lower point at the last generational transition.

We are talking about the same thing. You're saying the last 7 months have been good; I'm saying that dataset isn't large enough. And the market would need to be catastrophic collapse to be shrinking at the launch of new systems.

On the more successful notion, I'm mainly just going off of what I recall of an HBS Professor's research into blockbusters providing better average returns; although I haven't read her book or looked in depth at her research. I don't really think it's unfathomable that picking winners and focusing on making them a success can be more profitable in absolute terms than having more and smaller projects and divided focus. I think the heightening of production values is as much consumer-driven, if not more so. The people buying software are the ones placing value on these dimensions.

It's definitely possible, I just don't think it's likely. From an economics perspective, stability and profitability are often at odds.

On the latter point, has the market not always been one of a few big players?
I'm not particularly arguing for or against a market that largely caters to the audience for GTA rather than the audience for Singstar or an audience that caters to both equally well. I think it's just the reality of the market today that the consoles, and perhaps consoles in general, are not the best product for the market for Singstar right now. While publishers know the other audience, they generally know what they want, and they know how to make it. I don't think it's some grand conspiratorial endeavour, I think their outputs are reactive to their perception of the market reality.

It's not conspiratorial, it's pretty basic economics; this is referred to as an oligopoly. They are very common across a wide number of fields. Each of the 4 or 5 players remaining acts in their own self interest, and their own self interest is to keep new competitors out.

I expect as the market consolidates towards fewer releases, we'll see similar revenues simply split across fewer titles. I think this actually may be a function of game pricing elevating last gen and shaping consumer behavior to an extent towards known quantities, as with greater expense comes greater consumer risk.

I definitely agree pricing drives consumer behavior. However, I will again state that a lack of diversity (in this case, a lack of diversity in titles released, and a lack of diversity in publishers/firms, and a lack of diversity in demographics) tends to make a market more fragile and susceptible both to disruption and to consumption.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

They were never going to put main game series on a handheld, so yeah same ones.

Careful now.

 

[massoluk]

1)Namco tried that last gen with mainline Tales going to Wii. Didn't work .

Pretty sure it did. It did so beautifully people were wondering why they killed the series on the Wii with awful follow up game
Edit: ah sorry, mistook Symphonia platform

 

[Opiate]

Simply because the Wii is a special case.

I'm looking to the norm across generations, instead of a one time explosion.

I don't really think the Wii is a special case. The market "exploded" in the PS1 generation, too. We saw a nearly 80% increase in total userbase across Saturn/PS1/N64 relative to SNES/Genesis. The market also exploded during the NES generation relative to the Atari generation before it, although we don't have perfect figures to analyze that.

The difference with the Wii is that, unlike previous generations, consoles lost those newfound consumers to competing platforms, rather than retaining the new audiences as they had in the past. If the PS1 had happened and then, I don't know, PCs had stolen a huge chunk of those new console users away in the late 90s, returning the market to SNES/Genesis levels, PS1 would have been seen as a "one time explosion," too.

 

[KtSlime]

Namco really missed their best opportunity to transition mainline Tales to handhelds with PSP. I guess they can try again with phones in the future.

They sure did. However, Tales of Hearts R runs great on my iPhone.

I don't see Namco making a mainline Tales on smartphones at all, but they already have made a few smartphone spinoffs. If Namco makes another Tales on PS3 I could see a Zestiria 2 reusing assets, but I don't see another Tales with a brand new world. Tales is most popular on Sony consoles, and after the PS3 is the PS4. And I don't think I'd say the next Yakuza will be cross gen is likely...

Even with MK8, the Wii U is lacking notable third party support, and even the current Nintendo lineup might not be enough yet. Not that the PS4 situation is much better at the moment, but it's still the go-to for JP third parties wanting to make a console game.

Your "handhelds get more powerful and the PS4 looks more expensive" doesn't make much sense. Any new handhelds that are going to come out are going to be expensive. Even if they're priced similarly to 3DS/Vita, at the same time the PS4 is going to have price cuts. So no, the PS4 isn't going to look more expensive. The price can only go down.

Also there's not much reason to cut the price if there are no worthwhile games. It's not just a price issue.

1)Namco tried that last gen with mainline Tales going to Wii. Didn't work out.

2)Compared to PS1 gen? True. Compared to PS2 gen? Not true. Both RE5 and RE6 sold more than RE4.

3)PS3 sold 240k units during the week XIII launched. Biggest week of its life. Also ltd for PS3 before that week was 4 million that is rather poor considering it had been on the market over 3 years. Despite this retailers were willing to stock huge amount of consoles

4) Customers between Nintendo titles overlap a lot more than between different third party franchises (Compare GC to PS3).

I didn't say they were moving to Nintendo. There's also no reason to think that a PS3 owner will become a PS4 owner, Sony offers no incentive to people for sticking with the brand.

Pretty much all the Biohazards sold more than 4. Not sure what the sales are in Japan, but I think Capcom announces global sales figures and not Japan because it would look pretty bad.

Sure, but how long do you think it will take PS4 to sell 4 million systems? How many systems will XV push? Let's go overboard and say half a million, I don't think that's enough for how late the game is coming out.

I misspoke with handhelds, I meant smartphones+handhelds. Japan doesn't seem to throw money at anything with slightly better graphics. If a Japanese person had to choose between 40,000 for a PS4 and 40,000 for a top of the line phone, I think we all know which way they would go.

I also remember when the price went down on the DC, it went down, then people waited for it to go down again, and again. The price changed so often no one wanted to pull the trigger on the purchase, Sony could make the same mistake if sales don't start picking up. I wonder when the DC and PS4 will swap positions on their weekly tracking.

As to the PS4 being the go to for Japanese 3rd parties, I'd have to actually see some games being released by Japanese 3rd parties for the system, not just vaporware and promises.

 

[Darius]

The most important reason for the current market is software support. If we take a look at a simplified picture of the Japanese market, in Japan it basically looked like there were two blocks supporting different systems basically Nintendo vs 3rd parties since N64.

While in the past gens Sony systems basically got the majority of 3rd party support, now it actually went from Nintendo vs 3rd parties on Sony systems to looks more like Nintendo vs 3rd parties on Sony systems vs 3rd parties on "smart devices". Looking at Sonys handheld market, a segment that was by far more successful than their console last gen in Japan, it completely collapsed simply because they rely too much on 3rd parties (but also because of their lackluster 1st support). So it´s no surprise that they were hit even harder from 3rd parties new orientation in Japan.

 

[Lemmy]

Japan really doesn't give a fuck about home consoles anymore, huh?

Can't say as I blame them given the current state of things.

 

[Oregano]

Do you really see RE7, Next tales, Yakuza, Tekken, SC, Musou, etc going mobile/3ds/ps3? because I dont.

I don't either but what I find interesting about this conversation is that people seem to talk about those franchises as if they will remain as popular as they have been in the past.

Those franchises could be a lot less meaningful now than they were five years ago and if sales drop you bet your ass that they'll consider a switch to a cheaper development platform.

If I'm not mistaken as well all of those franchises have declined since the PS2 days with only Resi and Tales selling close to their predecessors.

 

[shinra-bansho]

We are talking about the same thing. You're saying the last 7 months have been good; I'm saying that dataset isn't large enough. And the market would need to be catastrophic collapse to be shrinking at the launch of new systems.

If it's not a large enough dataset to definitively indicate a positive trend, which I don't necessarily disagree with, I'm not sure how one derives from that it's enough to say "the market is still contracting."

The market did contract at the launch of new systems prior. It continued to contract half a year into the launch of the 360 and the Wii U obviously did nothing to halt contraction.

With regards to the oligopoly comment, the console market for as long as I can remember, has simply been very capital intensive and technology focused. I don't think the current publishers are actively orchestrating a rise in development expense to erect barriers to entry and better control the market, towards their own interests (and that still seems to be your implication?) Yes, it's obviously in their interest to have fewer competitors for software dollars, but production values have risen as a function of consumer expectations and the development costs consequently out of need to meet those consumer expectations, which is directly in their interest in terms of driving software sales, but as an inadvertent "benefit" reduces the ability of new players to enter the space. New players have still entered though and entered successfully in the form of the likes of Deep Silver and WBIE.

 

[RalchAC]

Simply because the Wii is a special case.

I'm looking to the norm across generations, instead of a one time explosion.

You can't just take off the Wii from those comparisions and call it a day. Doing that you're leaving aside a lot of different audiences. Including the audience that upgraded from the GameCube/PS2/Xbox to the Wii.

Since you can't draw a line and say "the 25% of those sales are gamers, the rest are an anomaly" you're leaving aside millions of people that DO count. So I can't understand the people who are just ditching the Wii.

 

[BadWolf]

If the PS1 had happened and then, I don't know, PCs had stolen a huge chunk of those new console users away in the late 90s, returning the market to SNES/Genesis levels, PS1 would have been seen as a "one time explosion," too.

Yes, it would have and I would have looked at the PS1 same way. But the audience did stay and moved to new generations, it was reliable.

The Wii's audience was brought in thanks to its "gimmick". It hit a cord with an audience, a different kind of audience, that moved on just as quickly as it came in.

You can't just take off the Wii from those comparisions and call it a day. Doing that you're leaving aside a lot of different audiences. Including the audience that upgraded from the GameCube/PS2/Xbox to the Wii.

Since you can't draw a line and say "the 25% of those sales are gamers, the rest are an anomaly" you're leaving aside millions of people that DO count. So I can't understand the people who are just ditching the Wii.

The Wii was a crazy success though. Even if you leave it with some millions in there things wouldn't look much different I think.

I'm not saying that the Wii doesn't matter by the way, it did amazingly well. But I don't think its wrong to take it out of the equation when taking a look at the overall picture.

 

[bebop24]

I'm not so sure now PS4 can overtake WiiU long term. System is far more dead than WiiU week to week.

 

[phanphare]

Yes, it would have and I would have looked at the PS1 same way. But the audience did stay and moved to the new generations, it was reliable.

The Wii's audience was brought in thanks to its "gimmick". It hit a cord with an audience, a different kind of audience, that moved on just as quickly as it came in. They didn't come in for the games that drove previous generation and those that drive it now.



The Wii was a crazy success though. Even if you leave it with some millions in there things wouldn't look much different I think.

I'm not saying that the Wii doesn't matter by the way, it did amazingly well. But I don't think its wrong to take it out of the equation when taking a look at the overall picture.

I'm obviously in semantics arguing territory here but if you want to exclude the Wii then it's anything but the overall picture. it's a segmented picture, or something like that.

 

[Darius]

Yes, it would have and I would have looked at the PS1 same way. But the audience did stay and moved to new generations, it was reliable.

The Wii's audience was brought in thanks to its "gimmick". It hit a cord with an audience, a different kind of audience, that moved on just as quickly as it came in.



The Wii was a crazy success though. Even if you leave it with some millions in there things wouldn't look much different I think.

I'm not saying that the Wii doesn't matter by the way, it did amazingly well. But I don't think its wrong to take it out of the equation when taking a look at the overall picture.

Just take a look at the change in userbase in Japan from PS2 to PS3 -> less than half.
The trend from PS3 to PS4 isn´t looking too flattering either.

 

[BadWolf]

I'm obviously in semantics arguing territory here but if you want to exclude the Wii then it's anything but the overall picture. it's a segmented picture, or something like that.

You know what I mean though

Just look at the change in userbase from PS2 to PS3 -> less than half.
The trend from PS3 to PS4 isn´t looking too flattering either.

The PS3 was a disaster at launch though, that price. I'm surprised it recovered as well as it did.

And isn't the PS4 the fastest selling console to date?

 

[phanphare]

You know what I mean though

I do. I'm too literal for my own good haha

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Serious question: is the traditional gaming industry crashing?

 

[Mpl90]

Serious question: is the traditional gaming industry crashing?

Traditional home gaming industry? Currently, it seems so.
Traditional portable gaming industry? Eh, the PSP-->Vita transition is a shame for everyone. 3DS is going to do PS2 like numbers probably in the end, so quite less than DS (which doesn't mean doing bad, though: PS2, or for what matters PSP numbers in Japan = great sales in the region).

 

[KtSlime]

And isn't the PS4 the fastest selling console to date?

This is a thread about Japan. PS4 is the 3rd slowest selling console to date here.

 

[damisa]

And isn't the PS4 the fastest selling console to date?

17 Weeks launch aligned:

Wii: 1,953,633
NDS: 1,809,306
PSP: 1,143,386
3DS: 1,126,513
NGC: 1,064,457
WiU: 839,284
PS3: 746,971
PSV: 639,685
PS4: 599,014
DC: 543,241
360: 125,858

It's had some of the worst launch numbers ever in Japan. We'll need more time in the west to see if PS4 sales are actually good or just good because of sales being more front loaded.

For example, XB1 destroyed PS2 and Wii launch numbers, and even Wii u outsold Wii at launch, and then both cratered after early adopters were satisfied. We need time to see if PS4's good numbers in the west are going to hold up once all the early adopters are satisfied.

 

[Acosta]

Tales of can be on any system, there is no guarantee the next major one will be for PS4, if I were Bandai I'd target PS3/smartphone. Biohazard interest in Japan has been in decline since Capcom turned it into western bro shooter. Ryu ga Gotoku could probably sell a couple PS4s, but the next one will likely be cross generational again. FFXV is vaporware, and IF it ever comes out, it will be so late that it won't help the PS4 much. FF games generally don't. It can bump up the numbers a bit, but they are so front heavy, that if there isn't the stock, it can't move them.

Baba already said there is a Tales PS4 in the works.

And your idea of vaporware is wrong.

Companies have no choice but bet on PS4 and reach to the world through it and One, or disappear/be bought by some other company. There is not an "alternative route". The other channels have their own rules and their own champions and classic companies are ill prepared to make the kind of profit they need there to keep themselves afloat.

If console gaming fall, third party traditional companies will fall with it. But don't take me word for it, wait and see how is situation next year.

 

[BadWolf]

This is a thread about Japan. PS4 is the 3rd slowest selling console to date here.

It's had some of the worst launch numbers ever in Japan. We'll need more time in the west to see if PS4 sales are actually good or just good because of sales being more front loaded.

For example, XB1 destroyed PS2 and Wii launch numbers, and even Wii u outsold Wii at launch, and then both cratered after early adopters were satisfied. We need time to see if PS4's good numbers in the west are going to hold up once all the early adopters are satisfied.

My bad.

The way he worded made it sound like he was talking about the user base in general.

 

[StoopKid]

This is a thread about Japan. PS4 is the 3rd slowest selling console to date here.

Just shows you how much the console market matters in japan.

360 sold 80 million without japan.

 

[Mpl90]

Baba already said there is a Tales PS4 in the works.

And your idea of vaporware is wrong.

Companies have no choice but bet on PS4 and reach to the world through it and One, or disappear/be bought by some other company. There is not an "alternative route". The other channels have their own rules and their own champions and classic companies are ill prepared to make the kind of profit they need there to keep themselves afloat.

If console gaming fall, third party traditional companies will fall with it. But don't take me word for it, wait and see how is situation next year.

Nintendo handhelds exist now and will continue existing in the future, you know...
EDIT: I mean, for more traditional efforts.

 

[Kresnik258]

As it stands, Sega expects three PS4 SKUs for this fiscal year.

Alien: Isolation covers two of them (US and Europe release), so either they're also releasing it in Japan, or they have an additional PS4 Japan-only title.

It's possible they will do something like port Diva F 2 to PS4 or have a Yakuza game ready, though I'm kind of not expecting the next Yakuza until Fall 2015.

I can't see there being another Yakuza ready this year. I think it'll be a Diva F 2 port like you say. Even with Yakuza's fast turnaround, I think they'll need more than a year on 6.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

The gaming industry is actually growing in Japan. Just not the dedicated portion.

Free to play mobile games have exploded.

Of course. People are not dumb. If you give them the option to pay and not to pay, they will obviously choose not to. Same thing for example with renting VHS or DVD: the streaming era offset it and made it obsolete and 99% of the shops closed down. TImes change - that's all.

 

[KtSlime]

Baba already said there is a Tales PS4 in the works.

And your idea of vaporware is wrong.

Companies have no choice but bet on PS4 and reach to the world through it and One, or disappear/be bought by some other company. There is not an "alternative route". The other channels have their own rules and their own champions and classic companies are ill prepared to make the kind of profit they need there to keep themselves afloat.

If console gaming fall, third party traditional companies will fall with it. But don't take me word for it, wait and see how is situation next year.

There are several other alternative routes including "not care about the west" or "move development to target the west".

I bought a PS3 to play Versus, so don't tell me it's not vaporware. I'll believe in the existence of Japanese PS4 games when I see them.

I actually stopped by Yodobashi during lunch today. I went and played a fun PS4 game where I switch back and forth between (about 10) different game boxes. On each box I could choose to see a screenshot, or play a video. It was quite the exhilarating game.

 

[Acosta]

Nintendo handhelds exist now and will continue existing in the future, you know...
EDIT: I mean, for more traditional efforts.

If going to handheld was a surefire way of success, consoles would be already dead in Japan long ago.

There are plenty of types of games that don't work well in a handheld. And aside of that, handheld market is not too hot outside of Japan at this moment.

 

[donny2112]

I don't really think the Wii is a special case. The market "exploded" in the PS1 generation, too. We saw a nearly 80% increase in total userbase across Saturn/PS1/N64 relative to SNES/Genesis. The market also exploded during the NES generation relative to the Atari generation before it, although we don't have perfect figures to analyze that.

The difference with the Wii is that, unlike previous generations, consoles lost those newfound consumers to competing platforms, rather than retaining the new audiences as they had in the past. If the PS1 had happened and then, I don't know, PCs had stolen a huge chunk of those new console users away in the late 90s, returning the market to SNES/Genesis levels, PS1 would have been seen as a "one time explosion," too.

Sorry that you have to keep saying this kind of thing in different threads, but thank you for saying this kind of thing in different threads. Would be nice if there was some way to categorize the # of game users in mobile/tablet excluding the solitaire/Bejeweled/simple puzzle users that have always existed on PC but weren't ever included in past dedicated game console tallies. That may allow for a better comparison to previous gens for the full size of possible users across all mediums. As-is, the dedicated console market is looking more and more like a specialized subset of the previous markets, as you said earlier.

 

[L Thammy]

Traditional home gaming industry? Currently, it seems so.
Traditional portable gaming industry? Eh, the PSP-->Vita transition is a shame for everyone. 3DS is going to do PS2 like numbers probably in the end, so quite less than DS (which doesn't mean doing bad, though: PS2, or for what matters PSP numbers in Japan = great sales in the region).

It may not be "crashing", but the handheld scene isn't growing, either. More importantly, some of the major players from last gen seem to have little interest in the handheld scene going forward.

 

[Kresnik258]

The fact that a number of Japanese franchises (Final Fantasy; Kingdom Hearts; Resident Evil; Dark Souls) target the west as much as the east still makes me confident that PS4 will be fine. These games will come as PS4/XB1 due to the western market and that'll make these machines attractive in Japan.

Throw in the fact that western franchises are on the rise in Japan (GTA V did amazingly well in my opinion; Call of Duty kept growing; Battlefield was doing well) will help too. These games will go next-gen only eventually and again, I think that'll help the PS4.

And the otaku ghetto of Compile Heart/Falcom/Gust/NISA/Acquire etc. don't need millions of consoles sold to commit. We've already seen 2 announcements from CH and I'm pretty sure I've read that Falcom & NISA are working on the machine already.

What I'm interested in is where the middle is going to go. Your Yakuza's; Dynasty Warriors'; Tales' etc. (can't actually think of any more of the top of my head). The fact that Yakuza & all the Warriorses already seem to have committed to the console was actually a little surprising to me, but it's encouraging.

(Also, licenced anime games. I presume they're going to stay on PS3 for the foreseeable future, but I'm wondering whether or not they'll migrate or find a new home)

 

[Mpl90]

It may not be "crashing", but the handheld scene isn't growing, either. More importantly, some of the major players from last gen seem to have little interest in the handheld scene going forward.

Considering how in the handheld part I've talked about how PSP to Vita was catastrophic and even 3DS, while still potentially selling as much as PS2/PSP, is still quite lower than DS, I don't think I've painted an "all rosy" picture for handhelds.

 

[L Thammy]

Considering how in the handheld part I've talked about how PSP to Vita was catastrophic and even 3DS, while still potentially selling as much as PS2/PSP, is still quite lower than DS, I don't think I've painted an "all rosy" picture for handhelds.

Did you? I apologize then. I don't really have the time to read through the entire thread today.

 

[extralite]

Maybe behind closed doors, but not on the show floor.

That's concerning since it implies that game is no where close to being released.

E3 is a show with Western focus and it was likely kept low key because there are no concrete plans yet for bringing it to the West, according to this tweet posted during E3.

But Capcom announced a public beta for summer this year in May already, and during e3 there was a tweet saying more info on the beta would be announced by the end of June.

 

[Anth0ny]

Don't they need to pay for that floorspace. Bizarre.

Yes. Eventually, they're going to need that space to show actual games (theoretically). If they don't buy it every year, they'll lose it.

 

[Acosta]

There are several alternative routes they can "not care about the west" or they can "move development to target the west".

I bought a PS3 to play Versus, so don't tell me it's not vaporware. I'll believe in the existence of Japanese PS4 games when I see them.

I actually stopped by Yodobashi during lunch today. I went and played a fun game where I switch back and forth between (about 10) different game boxes. On each box I could choose to see a screenshot, or play a video. It was quite the exhilarating game.

Versus doesn't exist anymore. It´s called Final Fantasy XV. Square Enix managed to release four Final Fantasy last gen (five if we add Type-0, six if we consider a A Realm Reborn a new project). What's your idea? that somewhat they are not going to release it and Final Fantasy ends here? I doubt it.

They don't need to target west, they need to reach west. Bandai Namco is getting the idea, there is success to be find in making Japanese games and bringing them to West. Same for Atlus, Tecmo Koei, Compile Heart, or NISA and others companies that understood that long ago.

Anyway, as I said, if you want to go by "seeing is believing" that's perfectly right. I don't need to.

 

[Mpl90]

Did you? I apologize then. I don't really have the time to read through the entire thread today.

Don't worry, everything's fine

 

[Makai]

What is the title that will save the PS4 in Japan? Bloodborne in 2015?

 

[extralite]

What is the title that will save the PS4 in Japan? Bloodborne in 2015?

No single game will save the PS4 and certainly not a game that won't even sell a million.