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[Chris1964]

first 2 days sellthrough {2016.08.09}

[PS4] Ratchet & Clank <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥5.900) - 70%

 

[Maniel]

DQ VII launched super late in the PS1's cycle and sold a ton. The only normal worry is the PS4/NX version siphoning sales but I'm betting on it being significantly delayed.

I'm sure Square Enix will be happy no matter what platform people buy it.

 

[L~A]

Some Dengeki data:

January - July 2016

Hardware: 85 billion Yen (-17.2% Year on Year)
Software: 140 billion Yen (-19.6%)
Total: 225 billion Yen (-18.7%)

PlayStation 4: 6.9 billion Yen (+48.3%)
Nintendo 3DS: 9.1 billion Yen (-36.8%)
Wii U: 2.3 billion Yen (-32.3%)

NB: those are HW sales, unless I'm mistaken.

Top 4 for July 2016:

[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3 - 869 000 units
[PS3 / PS4] Super Robot Taisen OG: The Moon Dwellers - 131 000 units
[PS3 / PS4 / PSV] Toukiden 2 - 104 000 units
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X - 78 000 units

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/341/1341154/

 

[Nirolak]

Let's take a hypothetical scenario where Final Fantasy XV doesn't make it out in 2016.

How do people feel that would impact the PS4's performance this year?

 

[Vena]

Let's take a hypothetical scenario where Final Fantasy XV doesn't make it out in 2016.

How do people feel that would impact the PS4's performance this year?

Fairly severely, since, regardless of how down we may be on the franchise, its still one of the consoles only major sellers (... and only one with a shot at 1m+?) for the region for this year.

Lose that, and you lose one major up-tick week on release + whatever tail there is to be had thereafter. Holiday story changes as well as a major title for the year has suddenly vanished from holiday shopping lists. It can also potentially squander a potential for good momentum off of a price drop right around its release date for the OG hardware.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I need FFVX to be 2017 so I can actually be right after all these years. And after I finally ate crow due to the march conference.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Let's take a hypothetical scenario where Final Fantasy XV doesn't make it out in 2016.

How do people feel that would impact the PS4's performance this year?

Would that raise the odds of a potential NX version? The closer it gets, the less the late port excuses will apply.

Kingdom Hearts III I'm still expecting if the system can do U4 ports easily. FFXV obviously being less likely due to it's engine (Luminous IIRC) and it would be the first mainline game on a Nintendo home console since FF6. Who knows.

 

[Aters]

NX DQXI will be day and date with the PS4 version unless DQXI sneaks out before launch, and its almost certainly going to be the same game.

The 3DS version is the only one that may or will launch separately as it's actual important release.

Care for a bet? (not for release date, just if NX and 3DS versions will come out simultaneously with the PS4 version)

Would that raise the odds of a potential NX version? The closer it gets, the less the late port excuses will apply.

Kingdom Hearts III I'm still expecting if the system can do U4 ports easily. FFXV obviously being less likely due to it's engine (Luminous IIRC) and it would be the first mainline game on a Nintendo home console since FF6. Who knows.

A port with a lot of effort and not many sales? I think the first thing the team will do when they get the game out of the door is start making a PC port. NX can wait until it actually gets an install base.

 

[Vena]

Care for a bet? (not for release date, just if NX and 3DS versions will come out simultaneously with the PS4 version)

No, lol. Look at what SE is doing with FFXV, why would I ever bet on anything they do with regards to schedules?

 

[Ōkami]

Would that raise the odds of a potential NX version? The closer it gets, the less the late port excuses will apply.

Kingdom Hearts III I'm still expecting if the system can do U4 ports easily. FFXV obviously being less likely due to it's engine (Luminous IIRC) and it would be the first mainline game on a Nintendo home console since FF6. Who knows.

If they're delaying it because it's not ready to release on the platforms it's been in development for years they're going to release it on another platform.

If anything it lowers the almost non existance chance of it happening.

 

[Aters]

No, lol. Look at what SE is doing with FFXV, why would I ever bet on anything they do with regards to schedules?

It's not like we already know their schedule for 2017.

 

[MacTag]

We should really be talking about NX getting FFXIV, not FFXV.

When do we expect Dragon Quest XI will release in Japan?
2016 or you think SquareEnix will delay the game in 2017?

My guess is spring 2017 for 3DS, holiday 2017 for PS4/NX.

 

[Vena]

Would that raise the odds of a potential NX version? The closer it gets, the less the late port excuses will apply.

No, lol. They can't, seemingly, get the versions they've spent years on to work up to snuff/well, they're not going to port it to yet another platform.

It's not like we already know their schedule for 2017.

I am saying that I wouldn't bet on anything with regards to their abilities to release things or their schedules. Its like betting on a random number generator.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Would that raise the odds of a potential NX version? The closer it gets, the less the late port excuses will apply.

Kingdom Hearts III I'm still expecting if the system can do U4 ports easily. FFXV obviously being less likely due to it's engine (Luminous IIRC) and it would be the first mainline game on a Nintendo home console since FF6. Who knows.

I really don't see FFXV on NX.


the only thing that has a chance would be KH3, but even then...

 

[Aters]

I am saying that I wouldn't bet on anything with regards to their abilities to release things or their schedules. Its like betting on a random number generator.

Exactly. And it's fun. What fun there is if we get all the rumors, leaks, trailers at hand?

 

[Eliseo]

Are there other games that can soften the blow in case FFXV gets delay to 2017? please do not say P5.

 

[Vena]

Exactly. And it's fun. What fun there is if we get all the rumors, leaks, trailers at hand?

Meh. Just doesn't really interest me.

Are there other games that can soften the blow in case FFXV gets delay to 2017? please do not say P5.

Nope.

 

[Memento]

Are there other games that can soften the blow in case FFXV gets delay to 2017? please do not say P5.

Persona 5 would be the biggest one, yeah.

 

[Nirolak]

Are there other games that can soften the blow in case FFXV gets delay to 2017? please do not say P5.

Barring disaster for Persona 5 or a strong uptick for Tales and Yakuza, I'm really not seeing much else here.

Isn't Tales even tracking to be a disaster?

I don't think Gran Turismo or The Last Guardidan are going to really impress in Japanese sales.

 

[Aters]

Are there other games that can soften the blow in case FFXV gets delay to 2017? please do not say P5.

GT5 sold reasonably well in Japan (the forth or fifth best selling PS3 title I think) so I think GT Sports has a chance. If we use financial year, REVII next January certainly will help PS4 a bit too. REV was the second best selling PS3 game in Japan.

Spoiler

Nothing. GT Sports is none-existent on preorder charts and REVII is an FPS.

 

[Vena]

Barring disaster for Persona 5 or a strong uptick for Tales and Yakuza, I'm really not seeing much else here.

Isn't Tales even tracking to be a disaster?

Berseria is far behind Zestiria if that's what you mean on COMG but I don't know if that's "disaster" or just COMG ratios changing. Of course, Horuhe's numbers don't exactly tell of a very different story.
I'd like to think P5 can't possibly be delayed again.

 

[Nirolak]

Berseria is far behind Zestiria if that's what you mean on COMG but I don't know if that's "disaster" or just COMG ratios changing. Of course, Horuhe's numbers don't exactly tell of a very different story.
I'd like to think P5 can't possibly be delayed again.

Persona 5 actually seems done by the type of marketing they're doing.

They're now at the scrounging-the-bottom-of-the-barrel stage of showing all-out-attack animations and listing every character in existence. I don't think they'd do that if it wasn't shipping.

And I mean scope wise it honestly doesn't seem all that different from Persona 4 outside of notably improved visuals and more extensive dungeon design.

 

[Vena]

Persona 5 actually seems done by the type of marketing they're doing.

They're now at the scrounging-the-bottom-of-the-barrel stage of showing all-out-attack animations and listing every character in existence. I don't think they'd do that if it wasn't shipping.

Ya, from what they've been showing, it just feels like the game is pretty much guaranteed to come out on time. But perhaps this is what you meant by disaster... like all of the discs get hijacked by the Woolly Yoshi thieves!

 

[Nirolak]

Ya, from what they've been showing, it just feels like the game is pretty much guaranteed to come out on time. But perhaps this is what you meant by disaster... like all of the discs get hijacked by the Woolly Yoshi thieves!

Oh, by disaster I meant if the thing way underperforms to the point it drops below Yakuza 6, which doesn't strike me as especially likely.

 

[Vena]

Oh, by disaster I meant if the thing way underperforms to the point it drops below Yakuza 6, which doesn't strike me as especially likely.

I think that is extremely unlikely, the brand feels too healthy right now even if it turns out that all they've done is polish P4.

 

[Sandfox]

What are the expectations for P5?

 

[Nirolak]

I think that is extremely unlikely, the brand feels too healthy right now even if it turns out that all they've done is polish P4.

And on top of that I'm not convinced Yakuza is super healthy, so I'm not really seeing anything bigger than Persona 5 as it stands.

What are the expectations for P5?

I would eyeball something around 450-550K, though if you ever wanted to be bearish, this is a great year to do so.

 

[Sandfox]

And on top of that I'm not convinced Yakuza is super healthy, so I'm not really seeing anything bigger than Persona 5 as it stands.


I would eyeball something around 450-550K, though if you ever wanted to be bearish, this is a great year to do so.

That would put it pretty close to Yakuza depending on the IP stands up these days.

 

[Nirolak]

That would put it pretty close to Yakuza depending on the IP stands up these days.

My basic assumption is that Yakuza is going to have a notable decline from other mainline entries, but I could be wrong!

I do think it's the most competitive title saleswise though.

 

[Vena]

That would put it pretty close to Yakuza depending on the IP stands up these days.

I'm not expect anything to far north of 350-400k for Yakuza. I'm expecting it to decline as Nirolak noted.

 

[Ōkami]

Persona 5 should sell some 400k-500k on PS3+PS4.

Just on PS4 Yakuza 6 should sell more than Persona 5.

PS3 version of Persona 5 should sell more than 100k units.

 

[Nirolak]

You know it's bad when we're discussing which of two modern Sega games will be the best selling PS4 game this Fall.

 

[horuhe]

This week's releases

{2016.08.09}

[PS4] Ratchet & Clank # <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥5.900)

----------

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking (2016.08.11)

01./01. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi <RPG> (Level 5)
02./02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Tempura <RPG> (Level 5)
03./04. [3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot <ACT> (Nintendo)
04./03. [3DS] Dragon Ball: Fusions <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)
05./05. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura Set <RPG> (Level 5)
06./00. [PS4] Ratchet & Clank <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
07./09. [3DS] Pokémon Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
08./06. [3DS] Pokémon Omega Ruby <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
09./00. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons X: Dragon Chapter <RPG> (GungHo Online)
10./10. [3DS] Etrian Odyssey V: The End of the Long Myth <RPG> (Atlus)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking (2016.08.11)

01./01. [PS4] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)
02./10. [PS4] Persona 5 (20th Anniversary Edition) <RPG> (Atlus)
03./03. [PS3] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games)
04./06. [PS4] No Man's Sky <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
05./04. [3DS] Pokémon Sun / Moon Set <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are only based on sales at Rakuten Books and does not count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking.

 

[Vena]

Well, I guess the delay is fairly believable now and given Kagari's opinion on the matter potentially not the end of the delays (as I also don't think the slot that FFXV is ending up in is... beneficial if its trying to find success in the West).

That makes last week's discussion oddly prophetic...

... I won't be held accountable if P5 is stolen by the Wool Yoshi thieves.

 

[Ōkami]

http://live.nicovideo.jp/watch/lv272171196

New Ni Oh live stream next week, if it's indeed coming in 2016 (which the Nico Nico description says it is) then the release date should be announced there.

Pretty sure it also says new beta on the 23rd.

 

[duckroll]

It'll be funny if Persona 5 ends up selling like 350k or so, and everyone cries bomba, when it would still be a really good result compared with 3 and 4. I think it could definitely do 500k or more, but it's not a given, and expectations seem to be through the roof now.

 

[Chris1964]

If Persona 5 sells only 350k one thing that will be good for Atlus is they were correct for not dropping PS3 version.

 

[Fisico]

Might as well try asking here again:

Media Create top 1000 for 2015 should be out by now right? Is there no interest in banding together to get it & post it again like last year?

We had a mailing list with previous buyers back in... March, the white book was supposed to be available early April but nothing came of it as far as i know.
A few people (me included) were interested to fund it, if Zhuge and Hiska are still up for it could still happen maybe?

 

[Oregano]

You know it's bad when we're discussing which of two modern Sega games will be the best selling PS4 game this Fall.

The next year is going to be a really exciting/interesting time for the industry. Even if there proves to be a place for dedicated devices going forward we're going to see a lot of franchises/developer adapt or die.

I honestly wonder how publishers are feeling about PS4 at the moment. A lot of them seemed oddly bullish and we've had a lot of public comments from Square Enix in particularly about revitalizing consoles.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the kind of annualised mid-tier going forward(Stuff like Musou, Tales and Yakuza) because they seem to be the hardest hit at the moment.

 

[Jarod McChicken]

http://live.nicovideo.jp/watch/lv272171196

New Ni Oh live stream next week, if it's indeed coming in 2016 (which the Nico Nico description says it is) then the release date should be announced there.

Pretty sure it also says new beta on the 23rd.

Yes, Nioh second demo will begin August 23th worldwide until September 6th. After Gravity Rush 2, this is the other game I really want to play this year. December release hype !

As for FF15 delay, I don't see it causing matters in any way as far as Japan is concerned. A lot of people were unhappy with Persona 5 and FFXV releasing so close of each other. Well, problem solved.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

It'll be funny if Persona 5 ends up selling like 350k or so, and everyone cries bomba, when it would still be a really good result compared with 3 and 4. I think it could definitely do 500k or more, but it's not a given, and expectations seem to be through the roof now.

Yeah, I think sales in the 330-400k range would be quite respectable for Persona 5, but expectations for some people seem to be through the roof.

It definitely has the upside to sell in the 500-600k range, but I think some people are setting themselves up by assuming that it's a given that it will sell there. I think people are assuming that the series is bigger than it really is due to its online popularity. I'm sure that Atlus would love for that to be true, but I think they'd be more than happy with the game selling something like 400k in Japan and hitting a million worldwide.

 

[jjonez18]

Is Persona like one of the only JRPG's that has a long tail or something? Or are we expecting to launch at like 400k and drop to like 50k the next week.

 

[Kanann]

What's the highest LTD from Megatens? are they ever pass 500k before on snes/ps1 era?

 

[Bruno MB]

Sega plan to ship 760,000 packaged games during the 2nd quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2017.

During that period they will release 3 titles: Etrian Odyssey V, Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA X HD and Persona 5. There are also catalogue sales but they will practically be non-existent, at best a few tens of thousands units.

With this we can guesstimate that Sega must be expecting around 500,000 units for Persona 5.

Let's say 150,000 for Etrian Odyssey V, 100,000 for Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA X HD and 450,000 - 500,000 for Persona 5.

 

[Fisico]

What's the highest LTD from Megatens? are they ever pass 500k before on snes/ps1 era?

Probably Persona 4 Golden which should be somewhere around 400k LTD iirc with digital. (latest known retail number was 329k by the end of 2014, in 2015 a budget version was released and it was rather frequently in the weekly top 50)
And the answer to your latest question is no.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Is Persona like one of the only JRPG's that has a long tail or something? Or are we expecting to launch at like 400k and drop to like 50k the next week.

My prediction is that it will have some legs in the west because alot of people dont know what Persona is and they are going to be surprised when they see a 90+ metacritic score. Word of mouth will be huge for that game. In Japan i think it will have a decent opening week and then sales will drop off of a cliff.

 

[horuhe]

My prediction is that it will have some legs in the west because alot of people dont know what Persona is and they are going to be surprised when they see a 90+ metacritic score. Word of mouth will be huge for that game. In Japan i think it will have a decent opening week and then sales will drop off of a cliff.

Mostly this. We are having a good amount of pre-orders of Persona 5, so first week should be pretty high. However, unless there is some kind of animation airing or stuff like that (something I don't know), the game won't have any kind of legs (five to six weeks on chart, at most).

 

[Celine]

No.

First Week:

01./00. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura <RPG> (Level 5) {2016.07.16} (¥4.800) - 632.135 / NEW <63,07%> [Units shipped => 1.002.275]

In other words, after two days of sale, there were 370k units on shelves. What do retailers do next? Order another 300k units, meaning that they ordered almost 100% of units that were left, making a total of 670k on shelves. That's more than the game have sold FW.

Retailers could've ordered a new shipment. Let's say 100k. But order almost the same number of units that were still waiting on shelves was just crazy (and stupid).

In a ideal world retailers will order the exact quantity to satiate demand to their shops but we don't live in ideal world.
I don't regard overshipping by 200K on what was expected and considered a big title to be "crazy".

 

[Chris1964]

Week 33, 2016 (Aug 15 - Aug 21)

new releases

{2016.08.16}
[PS4] Bound _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) (¥2.000)

{2016.08.17}
[3DS] Maru Goukaku! Social Worker Test: 2016 Fiscal Year Edition _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <EDU> (Media5) (¥2.592)
[WIU] Mario Strikers: Charged _Wii Disk Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Nintendo) (¥2.500)
[WIU] Super Mario Stadium: Family Baseball _Wii Disk Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Nintendo) (¥2.500)
[WIU] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong 2: March of the Minis _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <PZL> (Nintendo) (¥879)
[WIU] Lufia: The Ruins of Lore _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥650)

{2016.08.18}
[PSV] Collar x Malice # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.300)
[PSV] Collar x Malice (Limited Edition) <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥8.300)
[PSV] Collar x Malice (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥5.800)
[PS4] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS4] Tales of Berseria (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS4] Salt and Sanctuary _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Ska Studios) (¥1.648)
[PS3] Tales of Berseria <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
[PS3] Tales of Berseria (&#949 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥8.200)
__

YSO predictions

01. [PS4] Tales of Berseria < 155k (average 140k)
02. [PS3] Tales of Berseria < 100k (average 85k)
03. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura < 40k (average 35k)

 

[Eolz]

http://live.nicovideo.jp/watch/lv272171196

New Ni Oh live stream next week, if it's indeed coming in 2016 (which the Nico Nico description says it is) then the release date should be announced there.

Pretty sure it also says new beta on the 23rd.

Didn't they imply that the release date might change depending on the second beta reception? I doubt it, but I also don't think it won't have a slight delay.