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[RalchAC]

It's a ~$20 price increase, though.

Cheapest PS3:

- before (250GB): 25,694円
- after (500GB): 28,058円 (+2,364&#20870

Previously, Sony just increased the HD for the entry model, without changing the price.

They aren't selling the 12GB model in Japan?

 

[allan-bh]

PS3 entry price raised in Japan? That's crazy.

 

[DaBoss]

What are they doing? lmao

 

[jrDev]

What are they doing? lmao

Have to make back that money somehow lol...

 

[KooopaKid]

Wii U has stronger first party support than the Vita has in third and first party terms.

Honestly I give it two years to the Wii U overtaking the Vita's LTD.

That's my crazy bet as well.

 

[KillerMan91]

It's gonna be a hell of a lot more than a "moment". Have to recognize the possibility exists that once the streams have crossed, they don't cross again.

Well of course but that would mean under 100 million sold and I just don't personally see it. Wii had rather abnormal lifecycle compared to anything else as its selling point was motion controls and Nintendos smart utilization of them. Then it fell of the cliff as Nintendo started to move to other platforms and there was no one else utiliziting the strenghts of Wii. PS4 is more traditional console and as it should have more traditional life like every other leading system aside from Wii.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Wii U has stronger first party support than the Vita has in third and first party terms.

Honestly I give it two years to the Wii U overtaking the Vita's LTD.

Yeah, because the Vita will be dead by then.

Quiet Vita weeks handily surpass busy Wii U weeks for now.

 

[RalchAC]

That's my crazy bet as well.

The Vita will be at around 3.8 million units when this year ends. Even if the guy has an awesome holiday season, what's next? I doubt they can release anything in 2015 or later as big and important as MK and Smash. And they don't have a solid release schedule.

Unless SSB4 is able to carry the system for months so well that the WiiU outsells the Vita on a regular basis, it's not happening.

I personally think that 2015 could be Vita's best year.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I predict the next SK game will be on Vita.

Probably multi with PS3 or PS4.

That should help it sell 150k again. *cackles*

 

[shinra-bansho]

On average the Wii U needs to outsell the Vita by like 12K per week for 2 years to make up the current deficit; considering it's a) not outselling the Vita right now and b) rarely selling 12K at all most weeks let alone 12K more than whatever the Vita sells... that prediction seems highly implausible.

On inspection, for similar reasons it's becoming increasingly implausible for the PS4 to overtake the Wii U, although given we're only a few months in, I'm more cautious to suggest this.

 

[SmokyDave]

I can't see the Wii U outselling the Vita any time soon. If anything, the gap is only going to get larger.

 

[frankie_baby]

I can't see the Wii U outselling the Vita any time soon. If anything, the gap is only going to get larger.

Surely you not getting a one way flight to Japan and then buying every vita you ever see are you?

 

[Nirolak]

Just a heads up cause I wasn't 100% clear if you knew or not, but Love Live is actually a rhythm game and not a card battler. There is a card collecting element in terms of leveling them up for better bonuses on certain beats, but the crux of the game is competing using music.

Vs School Girl Strikers etc which actually are just card battlers.

Yes, sorry, this is actually a good point to elaborate one.

With mobile games, I've noticed several publishers note that a fair amount of the audience views genres differently than people who play on dedicated devices.

Like, to a more casual user, they might view a sci-fi game and a fantasy game as different genres even if they have the same mechanics, whereas two sci-fi games in different gameplay genres are more similar to them, at least on initial inspection of "Should I download this?".

I'm guessing what the analyst is getting at there is that he views them all as competitive products in the school girl collection genre, even though School Girl Strikers and Love Live are quite different mechanically.

That said, given the subject matter, I suspect a lot of the target audience that plays these games would identify genres the more traditional way, thus somewhat dampening the comparison.

 

[duckroll]

Yes, sorry, this is actually a good point to elaborate one.

With mobile games, I've noticed several publishers note that a fair amount of the audience views genres differently than people who play on dedicated devices.

Like, to a more casual user, they might view a sci-fi game and a fantasy game as different genres even if they have the same mechanics, whereas two sci-fi games in different gameplay genres are more similar to them, at least on initial inspection of "Should I download this?".

I'm guessing what the analyst is getting at there is that he views them all as competitive products in the school girl collection genre, even though School Girl Strikers and Love Live are quite different mechanically.

That said, given the subject matter, I suspect a lot of the target audience that plays these games would identify genres the more traditional way, thus somewhat dampening the comparison.

Love Live is also an extended franchise which exists in other consumable forms - music, anime, etc. It's pretty popular in Japan right now, and the IP benefits from the audience's existing connection with the characters. School Girl Strikers has none of that, so on top of being a different genre, it's not very good competition at all.

 

[metalslimer]

Eh...I don't ever expect Wii U to surpass Vita's LTD. In 2 years the Wii U will also pretty much be dead, as 2015 will probably be the last big year for releases besides the ones that don't get delayed.

 

[BlackJace]

If not surpass, then be right behind it? I mean, Wii U reigning supreme (or close to it) in Japan isn't exactly something to write home about nowadays, but it's a better conclusion than we thought when looking at how the generation started, no?

 

[KooopaKid]

The Vita will be at around 3.8 million units when this year ends. Even if the guy has an awesome holiday season, what's next? I doubt they can release anything in 2015 or later as big and important as MK and Smash. And they don't have a solid release schedule.

Unless SSB4 is able to carry the system for months so well that the WiiU outsells the Vita on a regular basis, it's not happening.

I personally think that 2015 could be Vita's best year.

WiiU is "only" 1.2 million behind Vita. I don't know I want to believe in strong year end sales for Nintendo. And a surprise hit somewhere. Ok so I slightly change my bet to the end of 2016. So in 2 years and a half instead of 2 years.

 

[Nirolak]

Love Live is also an extended franchise which exists in other consumable forms - music, anime, etc. It's pretty popular in Japan right now, and the IP benefits from the audience's existing connection with the characters. School Girl Strikers has none of that, so on top of being a different genre, it's not very good competition at all.

Yeah I realize it's not a 1:1 comparison here, which is why I assume he's basing that solely off of thematics.

That said, surprisingly School Girl Strikers is doing incredibly well. It's currently #11, above even Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light.

 

[hiska-kun]

Tsutaya's prediction Top 10 sales Games for September 2014

1. [3DS] Super Smash Bros for 3DS {2014.09.13}
2. [PS3] Naruto Storm Revolution {2014.09.11}
3. [PS4] Destiny {2014.09.11}
4. [PSV] Toukiden: Kiwami {2014.08.28}
5. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Honke {2014.07.10}
6. [PS3] Destiny {2014.09.11}
7. [PSV] Legend of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki 2 {2014.09.25}
8. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Ganso {2014.07.10}
9. [PSV] Dangan Ronpa: Another Episode {2014.09.25}
10. [3DS] Dragon Quest X Online {2014.09.04}

http://mantan-web.jp/2014/08/17/20140817dog00m200032000c.html?mode=pc

 

[duckroll]

School Girl Strikers is currently the #11 highest grossing app in Japan though. It's actually higher than Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light right now.

Square Enix seems to have managed to make it quite a hit despite the competition.

What I'm saying is, it's a poor comparison as a competitor for Love Live. Whether it is individually successful on its own is irrelevant when the actual targeting, genre, and business for both games is so different. The success of Love Live as an app also draws interest to the larger franchise. The app itself is not the core business. School Girl Strikers is also not a competitor for Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light by the same token.

 

[Darius]

I personally think that 2015 could be Vita's best year.

Sony would have to make some bullish moves to achieve this, that´s not exactly the impression they´ve made when it comes to PSV this year. Sure PSV sales haven´t been good in any previous year, so it isn´t impossible but there isn´t much that indicates next year to be considerably more promising so far.

The TGS will be very telling. But software wise it will likely be mostly the same rehashed lineup, starting with Musou, Gundam, and Monster Hunter clones, the latter without the novelty factor and basically just updated versions of Soul Sacrifice, Toukiden and GE. So basically praying to the choire with games aimed at the same niche as in the last 3 years. I doubt this would be sufficient, they need a price-drop to 15k yen or a revision to even have similar sales.

 

[KillerMan91]

Tsutaya's prediction Top 10 sales Games for September 2014

1. [3DS] Super Smash Bros for 3DS {2014.09.13}
2. [PS3] Naruto Storm Revolution {2014.09.11}
3. [PS4] Destiny {2014.09.11}
4. [PSV] Toukiden: Kiwami {2014.08.28}
5. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Honke {2014.07.10}
6. [PS3] Destiny {2014.09.11}
7. [PSV] Legend of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki 2 {2014.09.25}
8. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Ganso {2014.07.10}
9. [PSV] Dangan Ronpa: Another Episode {2014.09.25}
10. [3DS] Dragon Quest X Online {2014.09.04}

http://mantan-web.jp/2014/08/17/20140817dog00m200032000c.html?mode=pc

Naruto in second place? Doesn't Naruto games usually sell rather badly in Japan? Like barely over 100k

 

[metalslimer]

I've been very wrong when it comes to Vita sales, but with Sony basically pretending Vita does not exist anymore, I do wonder if they're are even securing 3rd party games for that device. It seems like Sony would be more inclined to get more PS4 games developed and not Vita. Also, they would need a price cut and/or a new model to not be down YoY next year.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Naruto in second place? Doesn't Naruto games usually sell rather badly in Japan? Like barely over 100k

Apparently the manga is selling well.

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-08-13/japanese-comic-ranking-august-4-10/.77603

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Sony would have to make some bullish moves to achieve this, that´s not exactly the impression they´ve made when it comes to PSV this year. Sure PSV sales haven´t been good in any previous year, so it isn´t impossible but there isn´t much that indicates next year to be considerably more promising so far.

The TGS will be very telling. But software wise it will likely be mostly the same rehashed lineup, starting with Musou, Gundam, and Monster Hunter clones, the latter without the novelty factor and basically just updated versions of Soul Sacrifice, Toukiden and GE. So basically praying to the choire with games aimed at the same niche as in the last 3 years. I doubt this would be sufficient, they need a price-drop to 15k yen or a revision to even have similar sales.

I haven't looked at the announcement or release forecast for Vita at all but I'm calling strong Q1 2015 with devotees proclaiming, "2015 is the year of Vita!" then nothing the rest of the year.

 

[KillerMan91]

Apparently the manga is selling well.

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2014-08-13/japanese-comic-ranking-august-4-10/.77603

Even manga sales of Naruto are way off from the peak years so I don't see how suddenly ''good'' manga sales would improve the sales of Naruto games as they never did in past. Only mega popular anime franchice in Japan is currently One Piece.

 

[Nirolak]

What I'm saying is, it's a poor comparison as a competitor for Love Live. Whether it is individually successful on its own is irrelevant when the actual targeting, genre, and business for both games is so different. The success of Love Live as an app also draws interest to the larger franchise. The app itself is not the core business. School Girl Strikers is also not a competitor for Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light by the same token.

Okay, that's a fair point.

Though this did raise a question in my mind. I wonder when we will see more traditional publishers successfully launch a series on mobile and then try to heavily merchandize and expand them from there.

(I realize that Love Live wasn't a mobile first game product. Let me preface this with that.)

We have obviously seen that happen with mobile first companies (angrybirdsfinland.gif), but I can't think of too many examples among traditional publishers doing that.

Gung-Ho somewhat comes to mind, though they were a smaller players in the grand scheme of console and handheld games.

Since merchandizing has become a big part of defining what traditional publishers do, the point where they can launch franchises on mobile and make them into merchandizing empires instead of on console/handheld would be a notable step in a lot of their evolution toward mobile, since if you require handhelds/consoles to launch major IPs that you then bring to mobile and other media, if those start tanking enough it becomes hard to launch any new brands.

Edit:

duckroll pointed out to me that Konami attempted this with their feature phone games like Dragon Collection and Sengoku Collection a few years ago still to this day, despite dropping success apparently!

 

[Yagami_Sama]

Yo-Kai watch 2 still in God mode, reached 2 million so fast, well done.
Nice week for Wii U, sold "way" more than the PS4. Mario Kart 8 still doing great.

I hope that next week Zelda Musou, had great sales, and Wii U also got another bump.

 

[RalchAC]

Lol I love that pic.

Sony would have to make some bullish moves to achieve this, that´s not exactly the impression they´ve made when it comes to PSV this year. Sure PSV sales haven´t been good in any previous year, so it isn´t impossible but there isn´t much that indicates next year to be considerably more promising so far.

The TGS will be very telling. But software wise it will likely be mostly the same rehashed lineup, starting with Musou, Gundam, and Monster Hunter clones, the latter without the novelty factor and basically just updated versions of Soul Sacrifice, Toukiden and GE. So basically praying to the choire with games aimed at the same niche as in the last 3 years. I doubt this would be sufficient, they need a price-drop to 15k yen or a revision to even have similar sales.

Well, they've been building some new franchises in the last two years (most of them hunting games, right) and they'll probably get some fruits if games like Toukiden grow with the second entry. An important part of GE fanbase still bought the PSP version.

And there are some other IPs that have been working decently or well on the Vita while being on the PS3. After developers start leaving the PS3 some may target the Vita instead of the PS4 due to lower costs, bigger installbase and the fact that there already is a fanbase established there. The brands that look at the West obviously won't though.

And we still have to see what happens at TGS. God Eater was a "big" game and succeed to reach its 400k target on the Vita with a smaller installbase. If Phantasy Star Nova succees as a succesor to Phantasy Star Portable we may see some more "big" announcements on the Vita.

I don't say it's totally going to happen, but they could get the ball rolling if they prove that their console is capable of carrying those "big" brands.

 

[Darius]

Lol I love that pic.



Well, they've been building some new franchises in the last two years (most of them hunting games, right) and they'll probably get some fruits if games like Toukiden grow with the second entry. An important part of GE fanbase still bought the PSP version.

And there are some other IPs that have been working decently or well on the Vita while being on the PS3. After developers start leaving the PS3 some may target the Vita instead of the PS4 due to lower costs, bigger installbase and the fact that there already is a fanbase established there. The brands that look at the West obviously won't though.

And we still have to see what happens at TGS. God Eater was a "big" game and succeed to reach its 400k target on the Vita with a smaller installbase. If Phantasy Star Nova succees as a succesor to Phantasy Star Portable we may see some more "big" announcements on the Vita.

I don't say it's totally going to happen, but they could get the ball rolling if they prove that their console is capable of carrying those "big" brands.

The point is that these games already used their biggest impact on hardware sales in the past years. For example just take a look at the GE2 software sales PSV 400k vs PSP 200k.

[PSV] God Eater 2 # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.14} (¥5.980) - 35.941 / 35.941 <9,69%> (406.968)
[PSP] God Eater 2 <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.14} (¥5.980) - 193.025 - 193.025

Looking specifically at people that bought the PSP version. If those remaining users migrate from PSP to PSV (very simplified) it means that instead of 400k potential new PSV users we are now looking at 200k potential new PSV owners. Now they need actions be it different software/price-dop/revisions to compensate its potential-loss in beeing a system-seller, despite the PSV software version potentially selling more it actually lost its strength as system-seller (if we assume a 600k GE fanbase).

Looking at Toukiden we have a very similar situation and with the release of Toukiden Kiwami some of that potential will be exploited this year. Like Freedom Wars (same developer and target audience as GE) earlier this year and PSNova by the end of the year.

I sincerely doubt further rehashes of these franchises alone will be sufficient.

 

[RalchAC]

The point is that these game already made their biggest impact on hardware sales in the past years. Just take a look at the software sales PSV 400k vs PSP 200k.

[PSV] God Eater 2 # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.14} (¥5.980) - 35.941 / 35.941 <9,69%> (406.968)
[PSP] God Eater 2 <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.14} (¥5.980) - 193.025 - 193.025

Looking specifically at people that bought the PSP version. If those remaining users migrate from PSP to PSV (very simplified) it means that instead of 400k potential new PSV users we are now looking at 200k potential new PSV owners. Now they need actions be it different software/price-dop/revisions to compensate its potential-loss in beeing a system-seller, despite the PSV software version potentially selling more it actually lost its strength as system-seller (if we assume a 600k GE fanbase).

Looking at Toukiden we have a very similar situation and with the release of Toukiden Kiwami some of that potential will be exploited this year. Like Freedom Wars (same developer and target audience as GE) earlier this year and PSNova by the end of the year.

I sincerely doubt further rehashes of these franchises alone will be sufficient.

It probably won't. I agree with that. I think we should continue this discussion after we see what the TGS brings to the table. Sony may have some non-hunting third party IP ready for next year.

I doubt we'll see something unexpected first party wise. Maybe SS2 if they've greenlighted it (it could be Ps4 / Vita though), Freedom Wars Burst and not much more.

 

[ohlawd]

good night, sweet prince... princess? boobs? iunno

 

[ZSaberLink]

WiiU is "only" 1.2 million behind Vita. I don't know I want to believe in strong year end sales for Nintendo. And a surprise hit somewhere. Ok so I slightly change my bet to the end of 2016. So in 2 years and a half instead of 2 years.

So you're expecting the Wii U to outsell the GC (and get into N64 range) in Japan? The Vita will likely at least hit 4m at its current pace. As much as I'd like more consoles to be sold in general, I'm doubtful.

While this depends on what Sony shows at TGS for the PS4, how do you think Japanese publishers would react if the Wii U were to pick up sales and become the defacto Japanese console? I assume most Japanese publishers with home console oriented franchises would like to find a successor to the PS3 for their products. If the PS4 continues to be the disaster that it is in Japan, and the Wii U continues its current so-so state, which horse would these publishers back after the PS3? I kind of expect they'd still go with the PS4 if the franchises have any Western potential, but it'd be interesting to see if any companies would go the other way (since it's boring to just have Sony crush the competition everywhere). On the other hand, if companies have games coming out for the PS3 years later (Tales of Zestiria & Persona 5 for example), it'd be interesting to see whether Nintendo would succeed in getting these companies to also release the titles for the Wii U (probably wishful thinking, but interesting to think about).

 

[theprodigy]

On average the Wii U needs to outsell the Vita by like 12K per week for 2 years to make up the current deficit; considering it's a) not outselling the Vita right now and b) rarely selling 12K at all most weeks let alone 12K more than whatever the Vita sells... that prediction seems highly implausible.

On inspection, for similar reasons it's becoming increasingly implausible for the PS4 to overtake the Wii U, although given we're only a few months in, I'm more cautious to suggest this.

I'm curious what the PS4 numbers look like in your calculation, also what was the PS3 baseline after launch/at its peak?

edit: wow Xenoblade has a ton of used sales, new+used sales brings it to over 400k

 

[KooopaKid]

So you're expecting the Wii U to outsell the GC (and get into N64 range) in Japan? The Vita will likely at least hit 4m at its current pace. As much as I'd like more consoles to be sold in general, I'm doubtful.

While this depends on what Sony shows at TGS for the PS4, how do you think Japanese publishers would react if the Wii U were to pick up sales and become the defacto Japanese console? I assume most Japanese publishers with home console oriented franchises would like to find a successor to the PS3 for their products. If the PS4 continues to be the disaster that it is in Japan, and the Wii U continues its current so-so state, which horse would these publishers back after the PS3? I kind of expect they'd still go with the PS4 if the franchises have any Western potential, but it'd be interesting to see if any companies would go the other way (since it's boring to just have Sony crush the competition everywhere). On the other hand, if companies have games coming out for the PS3 years later (Tales of Zestiria & Persona 5 for example), it'd be interesting to see whether Nintendo would succeed in getting these companies to also release the titles for the Wii U (probably wishful thinking, but interesting to think about).

Nintendo is alone in this. Even if WiiU starts to sell okay, Japanese 3rd parties will not follow. It doesn't matter anyway. Nintendo can have success by itself. Securing something like Yokai Watch or Dragon Quest on WiiU would help of course but that's it. There's not much meaningful Japanese HD developers left anyway.
And yes I think WiiU will outsell GC in Japan. It's already half-way there after only 2 Christmas.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I'm curious what the PS4 numbers look like in your calculation, also what was the PS3 baseline after launch/at its peak?

edit: wow Xenoblade has a ton of used sales, new+used sales brings it to over 400k

Wait, but with used sales, the developers/companies don't get any money right? So does it matter much to them?
EDIT: Or are you just saying that 400K people got to play it?

And, the Wii U won't beat the Vita in Japan. That's almost impossible. Just enjoy NPD threads if it matters so much. Just being a realist.

 

[Nintendojitsu]

I can't see the Wii U outselling the Vita any time soon. If anything, the gap is only going to get larger.

Summer 2015, SmokeyDave gets eyes checked.

 

[allan-bh]

Wait, but with used sales, the developers/companies don't get any money right? So does it matter much to them?

Right, but it shows interest, what is good for a future game related.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Right, but it shows interest, what is good for a future game related.

Ohh, I see. Hopefully X can open above 100K

 

[extralite]

Wait, but with used sales, the developers/companies don't get any money right? So does it matter much to them?
EDIT: Or are you just saying that 400K people got to play it?

Xenoblade was supply constrained which fueled the used market. Titles that build a following over time with good worth of mouth tend to have higher upfront sales with the follow up because the fans don't want to wait for the used copies to appear. And the new game has a strong multiplayer component which is the best tool to combat the used market since less people will sell their copy.

Everything points to this franchise seeing an increase except the Wii U doing worse than the Wii did but for a smaller core title like this one it might not even be important. The Wii U will also have a decent install base by the time the new game is out.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Xenoblade was supply constrained which fueled the used market. Titles that build a following over time with good worth of mouth tend to have higher upfront sales with the follow up because the fans don't want to wait for the used copies to appear. And the new game has a strong multiplayer component which is the best tool to combat the used market since less people will sell their copy.

Everything points to this franchise seeing an increase except the Wii U doing worse than the Wii did but for a smaller core title like this one it might not even be important. The Wii U will also have a decent install base by the time the new game is out.

An install base of Mario fans, kids don't give a fuck about X.

Which is why Nintendo should have released Xenoblade HD this year.

 

[Snakeyes]

While this depends on what Sony shows at TGS for the PS4, how do you think Japanese publishers would react if the Wii U were to pick up sales and become the defacto Japanese console? I assume most Japanese publishers with home console oriented franchises would like to find a successor to the PS3 for their products. If the PS4 continues to be the disaster that it is in Japan, and the Wii U continues its current so-so state, which horse would these publishers back after the PS3? I kind of expect they'd still go with the PS4 if the franchises have any Western potential, but it'd be interesting to see if any companies would go the other way (since it's boring to just have Sony crush the competition everywhere). On the other hand, if companies have games coming out for the PS3 years later (Tales of Zestiria & Persona 5 for example), it'd be interesting to see whether Nintendo would succeed in getting these companies to also release the titles for the Wii U (probably wishful thinking, but interesting to think about).

There's no point for Japanese devs to move from the PS3 to the Wii U because the latter doesn't offer much over the former in terms of install base or processing power. Might as well stick with the PS3 for a bit longer.

The only way Nintendo could regain Japanese third party support for their future home consoles is by knocking it out of the park with their next handheld. Since both will likely run off the same architecture and play the same software, supporting the handheld also means supporting the home console with little to no extra cost.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Nintendo is alone in this. Even if WiiU starts to sell okay, Japanese 3rd parties will not follow. It doesn't matter anyway. Nintendo can have success by itself. Securing something like Yokai Watch or Dragon Quest on WiiU would help of course but that's it. There's not much meaningful Japanese HD developers left anyway.
And yes I think WiiU will outsell GC in Japan. It's already half-way there after only 2 Christmas.

You expect no third party support, but somehow expect Nintendo to wrangle a Youkai Watch or DQ game on Wii U? Seems a bit contradictory imo. I think Nintendo would have to arrange for some third party games to come to Wii U, but that's partly what I was talking about. Even if it's the more family friendly titles or w/e. Honestly, I feel most Japanese third parties have still been fairly non-committal past the PS3. Does Namco-Bandai have a single PS4 title in the works? They have experimented a little bit with the Wii U though (Taiko, One Piece, Kamen). I'm not optimistic myself, but I was just interested in opinions =).

 

[extralite]

An install base of Mario fans, kids don't give a fuck about X.

Mario fans are kids? I don't think the install base of the Wii U is that different from the one on Wii, just less of everyone.

There's no point for Japanese devs to move from the PS3 to the Wii U because the latter doesn't offer much over the former in terms of install base or processing power. Might as well stick with the PS3 for a bit longer.

That is not the reason why you change platforms. The reason is that the old platform becomes obsolete. The Wii U not requiring much upgrade of assets and instead just getting better results for games of similar scales is a plus I think.

Honestly, I feel most Japanese third parties have still been fairly non-committal past the PS3. Does Namco-Bandai have a single PS4 title in the works? They have experimented a little bit with the Wii U though (Taiko, One Piece, Kamen). I'm not optimistic myself, but I was just interested in opinions =).

Tekken 7 is the only one announced.

I think with sales picking up Wii U has a chance of getting Japanese 3rd party support. Even when aiming for success in the West, the Gamecube has shown that titles can do well just on account of having little to no competition. It is no coincidence that Tales got its best Western result on GC and Japanese titles in general have done badly on X360.

There is little benefit in trying to compete with Western styles and high budget graphics when you can get better results on a console that is also successful and that has an audience that will appreciate the games produced for the Japanese market. PS4 might fit the bill better than the X1 but the Wii U fits it best I think.

Except for high budget titles like FF and RE but even those have been compared unfavorably to supposedly superior Western games of the same genres.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

instead of when the WiiU will catch the Vita LTD in Japan

can we ask when we think the PS4 will catch the WiiU LTD in Japan?

this is what we want to see for a healthy home console business in Japan

the portable market is one step closer to mobile imho even a 2nd place Vita still sells stronger numbers than most of the home consoles week after week.

Sony has not focused that much on Vita support (beyond the few tries at monhun clones) I doubt they will ever with the PS4 needing help in Japan.

I want to see two things happen in Japan,

WiiU selling 20k per week
or PS4 selling 30k per week

I want to see PS4 selling more because it has the newest hardware and has more power.
What we are seeing now is a falling market, saying WiiU will pass Vita LTD is not an improvement

 

[frankie_baby]

instead of when the WiiU will catch the Vita LTD in Japan

can we ask when we think the PS4 will catch the WiiU LTD in Japan?

this is what we want to see for a healthy home console business in Japan

the portable market is one step closer to mobile imho even a 2nd place Vita still sells stronger numbers than most of the home consoles week after week.

Sony has not focused that much on Vita support (beyond the few tries at monhun clones) I doubt they will ever with the PS4 needing help in Japan.

I want to see two things happen in Japan,

WiiU selling 20k per week
or PS4 selling 30k per week

I want to see PS4 selling more because it has the newest hardware and has more power.
What we are seeing now is a falling market, saying WiiU will pass Vita LTD is not an improvement

Wii U selling 20k a week regular is unlikely but I could see it as a possibility (post smash and a price cut) ps4 selling 30k is just laughable though

 

[theprodigy]

to catch Wii U by the end of 2016, PS4 would have to outsell it by an average of 9781 per week (using Media Create numbers), this obviously isn't going to happen given the current situation

to catch Wii U by the end of 2017 (i.e. Wii U should already have a successor out by this point at the latest), PS4 would need to outsell it by an average of 6891 per week, which is somewhat more likely, but with the big games for PS4 coming over a year later, I'm not so sure

 

[ZSaberLink]

I think with sales picking up Wii U has a chance of getting Japanese 3rd party support. Even when aiming for success in the West, the Gamecube has shown that titles can do well just on account of having little to no competition. It is no coincidence that Tales got its best Western result on GC and Japanese titles in general have done badly on X360.

This is what I was thinking of. When the PS2 was as dominant as it was and Nintendo was able to arrange some things with JP third parties, I would think that if Wii U sales were to improve they could something similar. Clearly their interest in home consoles has decreased in general and that's actually probably the biggest barrier.

Maybe if Kamen SummonRider or w/e (the toy one) does well on Wii U, we'll at least continue seeing those, etc.

That is not the reason why you change platforms. The reason is that the old platform becomes obsolete. The Wii U not requiring much upgrade of assets and instead just getting better results for games of similar scales is a plus I think.

Yup. Just like MH went from PS2 -> Wii, I can only imagine some JP companies would like just to go from PS3 -> Wii U if that requires a lot less effort and could actually be successful.

 

[ZSaberLink]

whoops, double post.

 

[spatenfloot]

Tsutaya's prediction Top 10 sales Games for September 2014

1. [3DS] Super Smash Bros for 3DS {2014.09.13}
2. [PS3] Naruto Storm Revolution {2014.09.11}
3. [PS4] Destiny {2014.09.11}
4. [PSV] Toukiden: Kiwami {2014.08.28}
5. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Honke {2014.07.10}
6. [PS3] Destiny {2014.09.11}
7. [PSV] Legend of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki 2 {2014.09.25}
8. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Ganso {2014.07.10}
9. [PSV] Dangan Ronpa: Another Episode {2014.09.25}
10. [3DS] Dragon Quest X Online {2014.09.04}

http://mantan-web.jp/2014/08/17/20140817dog00m200032000c.html?mode=pc

Interesting that Destiny is so high.