But then we might not be having a 10,000 Yen/$80 price drop or 20 free VC games on the system. 3DS
might have limped well enough along to delay an initial price drop to the point that Vita took too much of the market. (Or the price drop may not do much else and Vita may still take the market due to late arriving system sellers.) Postulating is fun.
I agree that LTD would've been better before 3 weeks ago with a Mario game at launch, but the overall lifespan of the 3DS may be better now that Nintendo had to massively reset the price on the system to get it into more hands before their traditional system sellers come out.
Better case would've been a more reasonable launch price (e.g. 18K/20K Yen or $200) and more "big" first-party games at launch. Another good side effect of the 3DS price fiasco is that Wii U may not make the same mistakes now. All in all, the way things have turned out for 3DS thus far may actually have been better for the system and Nintendo as a whole for the long-term.