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[LOCK]

According to comgnet, we now have

preorders:
Bayo 2 - 17pts
Fatal Frame V - 21 pts
Smash Wii U - 27 pts (this really still needs a release date...)

These are preorders for Smash while preorders are not officially open yet.

Yeah, Smash will do good on Wii U.

 

[theprodigy]

A good barometer to gauge if Nintendo was right making 2 versions of Smash Bros would be having more sales than Smash Brawl, right?

Can Smash Bros for 3DS & for Wii U sell more tan 2.4 million in Japan? 1.8 million for the 3DS version and 700.000 for the Wii U version should be doable but it won't be easy.

wouldn't that barometer be over worldwide sales, not just Japan?
because the rest of the world is where the comparison gets harder

 

[zeromcd73]

Not sure if a video of it has been posted before, but here is some footage showing the terribleness of DQX 3DS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BikTFP80dtY#t

 

[hiska-kun]

These are preorders for Smash while preorders are not officially open yet.

Yeah, Smash will do good on Wii U.

I agree. Pre-orders for Smash for Wii U are not open yet in Japan. I don't know why COMG is accepting when they shouldn't.
So if it's already charting that means Wii U version will be alright.

 

[Darius]

Not sure if a video of it has been posted before, but here is some footage showing the terribleness of DQX 3DS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BikTFP80dtY#t

Here a video with a decent internet connection. Looks quite good.

DQX 3DS gameplay


About the previous Level5 discussion I want to add that it´s quite interesting that in almost a decade Level5 was far more successful in establishing new IPs on handhelds or consoles in Japan than SQEX. SQEX has still alot of success with their big IPs DQ and FF but that´s likely more due to the legacy of former titles and talents involved.

 

[Aostia]

Not sure if a video of it has been posted before, but here is some footage showing the terribleness of DQX 3DS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BikTFP80dtY#t

Apparently, Japan doesn't give a fuck.

I wonder how much/if the issues that pushed SE to stop the distribution will hurt the game.

 

[sörine]

That DQX video is painful to watch. Yikes!

Did the Android version perform that badly?

 

[Orgen]

wouldn't that barometer be over worldwide sales, not just Japan?
because the rest of the world is where the comparison gets harder

Yes, but the game is out first in Japan and then it'll be out in the ROTW. One step at a time How many units sold Brawl WW? 12 million? Yep, it'll be more difficult to make this numbers in the West but there're 2 versions too... I think it'll be a close call.

 

[Atram]

That DQX video is painful to watch. Yikes!

Did the Android version perform that badly?

I think it depends on the Network Connection.

 

[metalslimer]

Yeah it's going to be a really close battle worldwide. I still think the Wii U version will be a lot closer to the 3ds version in the west. I was surprised that a bunch of my friends are buying 2ds to get Smash 3DS. They should have made a 2ds bundle as well.

 

[Aostia]

Yeah it's going to be a really close battle worldwide. I still think the Wii U version will be a lot closer to the 3ds version in the west.

I foresee something similar to MH3U ww (with bigger sales in the West for both version, and 25% lower in Japan, 3DSWIIU combined)

 

[sörine]

I foresee something similar to MH3U ww (with bigger sales in the West for both version, and 25% lower in Japan, 3DSWIIU combined)

I'm not sure MH3U sold more than MH3 in the west? MH3 did over 400k NPD and last we'd heard 3U 3DS+U were still below that.

Japan was where 3U did much better really.

 

[Aostia]

I'm not sure MH3U sold more than MH3 in the west? MH3 did over 400k NPD and last we'd heard 3U 3DS+U were still below that.

Japan was where 3U did much better really.

I was comparing western sales of MH3U with Smash: I think Smash comnibed will sell more than MH3U combined, while it will sell less in Japan. the "bigger" was referred to the western sales of Smash 3DSU over MH3Ultimate for 3DSU.

 

[sörine]

I was comparing western sales of MH3U with Smash: I think Smash comnibed will sell more than MH3U combined, while it will sell less in Japan. the "bigger" was referred to the western sales of Smash 3DSU over MH3Ultimate for 3DSU.

Oh, I thought you were doing predecessor comparisons (Smash Brawl/3DSU, MH3/U).

Honestly I feel like Smash combined is going to outsell 3U combined in Japan too.

 

[Kandinsky]

Damn I used to think the WiiU version of the Smash would sell the most D:

 

[Chris1964]

Honestly I feel like Smash combined is going to outsell 3U combined in Japan too.

Of course it will. It will outsell Brawl too (3DS version only).

Damn I used to think the WiiU version of the Smash would sell the most D:

I'd better not talk again.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I'm not ioi. Maybe famitsu will also give hw if we have a report tomorrow.

Personally I'm expecting a small bump but nothing spectacular.

Ok, thanks for the answer bud

 

[Hellraider]

Honestly I feel like Smash combined is going to outsell 3U combined in Japan too.

Easily. I expect Smash 3DS alone to do that.

 

[Aostia]

Oh, I thought you were doing predecessor comparisons (Smash Brawl/3DSU, MH3/U).

Honestly I feel like Smash combined is going to outsell 3U combined in Japan too.

Really? It could be...I was thinking about MH4 numbers for some reason...
For Famitus (correct me if I'm wrong!) the game sold

3DS: 1,585,493
3DS: The best: 363.383
Wii U: 207.627
The toal is around 1948.876 for 3DS + 207.627 for Wii U = 2.156.500

yes, I think that 3DS+WiiU numbers could be highet in Japan for Smash. Especially if the Wii U version will not bomb like a rock (the comments that stated that the COMGNET preorders are actually still closed and yet people is pre-ordeding the game anyway make me a believer now!)

Of course it will. It will outsell Brawl too (3DS version only).



I'd better not talk again.

Easily. I expect Smash 3DS alone to do that.

yes, I dont know why but I had MH4 numbers in mind.

Damn I used to think the WiiU version of the Smash would sell the most D:

I'm starting to understand why Chris define you as the minimum bar for Japanese sales predictions! (jokin'!)

 

[Brazil]

Not sure if a video of it has been posted before, but here is some footage showing the terribleness of DQX 3DS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BikTFP80dtY#t

More like the terribleness of that guy's internet connection.

 

[BishopLamont]

smash bros for wii u should still sell well and provide the wii u a good boost. smash bros brawl sold for years, plenty of people will still buy it, I can see it performing aswell as mario kart at the least.

 

[Darius]

smash bros for wii u should still sell well and provide the wii u a good boost. smash bros brawl sold for years, plenty of people will still buy it, I can see it performing aswell as mario kart at the least.

At this point I wouldn´t even exclude it outselling FF15 in lifetime sales in Japan.

 

[BishopLamont]

At this point I wouldn´t even exclude it outselling FF15 in lifetime sales in Japan.

I think ff15 should outsell the wii u version, if only because the 3ds version exists.

besides that, i think the days of 20k-30k weekly for home consoles is gone. i don't think any game will be able to push the ps4 or wii u baseline past that for too long.

and the longer the ps4 goes without software, the smaller the baseline will get, i mean the ps4 launched later than the wii u and is behind by a mil, and yet its selling at the same rate. i really hope once the exclusives come the baseline improves significantly.

 

[Aostia]

At this point I wouldn´t even exclude it outselling FF15 in lifetime sales in Japan.

Uh? Wii U version alone? No way.
Or was that sarcasm?

 

[sörine]

3DS Smash > PS4 FFXV > Wii U Smash >>> XBO FFXV

 

[Busaiku]

A good barometer to gauge if Nintendo was right making 2 versions of Smash Bros would be having more sales than Smash Brawl, right?

Can Smash Bros for 3DS & for Wii U sell more tan 2.4 million in Japan? 1.8 million for the 3DS version and 700.000 for the Wii U version should be doable but it won't be easy.

It's very unlikely to see growth outside of Japan.
Both systems combined will end selling much less than Wii, and people buy fewer games than on Wii.
The barometer to gauge would be to just look at how terribly exclusive Wii U software sells in general, and how much more a 3DS version will help.

 

[BishopLamont]

3DS Smash > PS4 FFXV > Wii U Smash >>> XBO FFXV

Thats if they even release on the xbone in japan.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

At this point I wouldn´t even exclude it outselling FF15 in lifetime sales in Japan.

 

[Kandinsky]

Yeah at this point, it wont even sell more than P5 D:

 

[saichi]

Does it even matter though? Here's some perspective: With just two releases, Yokai Watch has sold more as a franchise than the first 5 releases of Inazuma Eleven combined. It has also sold more than the first 4 releases of Layton combined.

L5 is so lucky!

 

[ZSaberLink]

Yeah at this point, it wont even sell more than P5 D:

Really how well do you expect P5 to sell exactly? 400K? 500K? even more than that? Smash Wii U will likely do alright all things considered. It's still a very popular local multiplayer game, and folks are still buying Brawl after all these years. It'll be released around xmas time and will likely at least break Persona 4's 300K...

 

[theprodigy]

Yeah at this point, it wont even sell more than P5 D:

bouncing from one laughable extreme to the other, are we

 

[Darius]

I think ff15 should outsell the wii u version, if only because the 3ds version exists.

besides that, i think the days of 20k-30k weekly for home consoles is gone. i don't think any game will be able to push the ps4 or wii u baseline past that for too long.

and the longer the ps4 goes without software, the smaller the baseline will get, i mean the ps4 launched later than the wii u and is behind by a mil, and yet its selling at the same rate. i really hope once the exclusives come the baseline improves significantly.

Don´t get me wrong that wasn´t a prediction, just teasing both, the current Dreamcast-esque PS4 lifetime sales, which simply are ridiculous considering all the 3rd party support it gets in comparison and Final Fantasys downward-spiral last gen.

Going with FF15 is the safest you can do, so far the past main entries always had explosive starts with something ridiculous like 80% of it´s lifetime sales in its launch-week and were guaranteed great system-sellers, while a decline is possible I think most of its fanbase will give the franchise another chance, with the excuse that maybe FF13 was just an exception and its direct sequels/spinoffs (13-2 and Lightning Returns) will simply get ignored in this equation...

I can see it performing aswell as mario kart at the least.

If Smash for WiiU can match MK8 it would be really a good performance. MK8 looks like it will reach 800k units by the end of the year and because I think it will be an evergreen title it should also cross the million barrier in its lifetime. The biggest problem for SSB WiiU isn´t the 3DS version but the combination of the 3DS version and more important the release of the new3DS launch so close to the holidays. Because there is no doubt that new3DS will dominate every system this holiday season.

 

[Mpl90]

bouncing from one laughable extreme to the other, are we

Kandisky's an expert in this.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Smash U won't match MK8.

Smash 3DS exists, remember?

I think it'll still do well though.

 

[sörine]

Smash U won't match MK8.

Smash 3DS exists, remember?

I think it'll still do well though.

MK8 isn't done selling either. It still has it's first holiday ahead of it and a hardware bundle in the future wouldn't surprise me either.

MK8 outselling FFXV is something I could see happening.

 

[Kagari]

http://news.yahoo.com/yo-kai-watch-japans-monster-craze-set-international-042828580.html

A look into the insanity of Yokai Watch popularity beyond just the games:





Mmmmm.... $$$$$

Hino is genius.

 

[Mory Dunz]

MK8 isn't done selling either. It still has it's first holiday ahead of it and a hardware bundle in the future wouldn't surprise me either.

MK8 outselling FFXV is something I could see happening.

That'll be interesting.

For now, I'll still go with FFXV selling more because I feel by the time FFVX comes out (2016 is my guess), the PS4 will have recovered at least a little bit. So the install base might be there by that time.

 

[KillerMan91]

MK8 isn't done selling either. It still has it's first holiday ahead of it and a hardware bundle in the future wouldn't surprise me either.

MK8 outselling FFXV is something I could see happening.

Even with another huge half million drop FFXV should sell at least something like 1.4 million. Really don't see MK8 selling that much without massive bundling (that could happen though).

 

[Kandinsky]

Guys it was sarcasm, Smash WiiU will outsell both FFXV and P5.

 

[metalslimer]

Considering we have no idea how the PS4 will be doing when FF15 comes out, when FF15 will come out, the quality of FF15, there is no way to judge what will outsell what and is also a useless comparison anyway

 

[Aostia]

Considering we have no idea how the PS4 will be doing when FF15 comes out, when FF15 will come out, the quality of FF15, there is no way to judge what will outsell what and is also a useless comparison anyway

well, no I mean, we really cann't imagine FFXV to drop like that, imho

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Capcom's mission statement for Gaist Crusher: http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/news/html/e130402.html

Capcom Announces the Start of a Major Project for Children's Content
- Alliances established with leading providers of content for children -

Capcom Co., Ltd. (Capcom) is pleased to announce the start of a new project for children's content. As part of the project, Capcom has decided to begin selling "Gaist Crusher" in the winter of 2013, which is a completely new game for the Nintendo 3DS™.

The important theme of the new project is the creation of new Capcom content for children. Elementary school age boys are the primary target of the project. With emphasis on armors, transformations and collections, the project will utilize the cooperation of companies in a broad range of fields such as games, comics (manga), anime, music and toys. Overall, this will be an expansive cross-media project. With the number of children in Japan declining, Capcom plans to use this project to attract interest in new brands and firmly establish these brands by continuously launching a diverse range of content.

The "Gaist Crusher" game, which will be the key element of the project, is an action game that draws on two Capcom strengths. One is expertise in producing content for children that was gained from Capcom's "Mega Man" series. The other is the high-grade multiplayer capability that generated a strong response for the "Monster Hunter" series. Capcom plans to leverage these strengths to produce a game that excels in terms of both its worldview and game playing characteristics.

For cross-media activities associated with "Gaist Crusher", Capcom plans to start by using manga in the "Saikyo Jump" and "V Jump", two magazines published by Shueisha Inc.. Cross-media will also include an anime project produced by Pierrot Co., Ltd., music produced by Avex Entertainment Inc., and toys called "Gaimetal" from Bandai Co., Ltd., all linked to the new game.

Capcom is determined to continue meeting the high expectations of consumers by creating highly original new games that take full advantage of its outstanding content development skills. Furthermore, Capcom will use its multi-use approach for content with the aims of maximizing earnings and playing a role in energizing the entire content market.

Capcom trying to pull a Level 5 and failing like the losers they are.

 

[Eolz]

I don't get how they can still believe they can hit the jackpot with this IP.

 

[Eddie Griffin]

I always come back to this thread to look at those hilarious Xbox sales. If they don't sell as much or more than 25k this wednesday. It could be the end.

A drop to 10k could be acceptable to since that would possibly mean that it still has some people keeping an eye on it but if below 10k I would say it will be nearly impossible to turn it around because if it drops below 10k I would have to say the frying pan has no eggs so what are you cooking?

That 25k was pretty much without hype for 4 days or so of tracking. Now it has a whole week, so if it does not at least manage above 10k for this whole week, then it's over. It's not getting to even 200,000. I'd almost say 100,000 is out of reach.

Anyway I wonder how New 3DS will do.

 

[Darius]

I don't get how they can still believe they can hit the jackpot with this IP.

This Capcom press release was from April 2013, this was before the first game launched.

 

[Ramrock]

Not sure if a video of it has been posted before, but here is some footage showing the terribleness of DQX 3DS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BikTFP80dtY#t

Yikes!
It's a fucking slideshow.
SE should get sued.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I always come back to this thread to look at those hilarious Xbox sales. If they don't sell as much or more than 25k this wednesday. It could be the end.

A drop to 10k could be acceptable to since that would possibly mean that it still has some people keeping an eye on it but if below 10k I would say it will be nearly impossible to turn it around because if it drops below 10k I would have to say the frying pan has no eggs so what are you cooking?

That 25k was pretty much without hype for 4 days or so of tracking. Now it has a whole week, so if it does not at least manage above 10k for this whole week, then it's over. It's not getting to even 200,000. I'd almost say 100,000 is out of reach.

Anyway I wonder how New 3DS will do.

10k for week 37 for XB1 in Japan would greatly surprise me. If it followed PS4's sale curve it would hit around 5500 this week. Perhaps the complete lack of marketing resulted in Xbox consumers in Japan being unaware of the launch? Seems unlikely though

 

[Asd202]

Even with another huge half million drop FFXV should sell at least something like 1.4 million. Really don't see MK8 selling that much without massive bundling (that could happen though).

Will it really? FF are usually front loaded with how things are going for PS4 It will have a hard time reaching 1 million in the first week. I'm not saying MK8 or Smash will outsell it I just think that the drop of for XV may be pretty substantial compared to previous FF's.

 

[Chris1964]

I always come back to this thread to look at those hilarious Xbox sales. If they don't sell as much or more than 25k this wednesday. It could be the end.

A drop to 10k could be acceptable to since that would possibly mean that it still has some people keeping an eye on it but if below 10k I would say it will be nearly impossible to turn it around because if it drops below 10k I would have to say the frying pan has no eggs so what are you cooking?

That 25k was pretty much without hype for 4 days or so of tracking. Now it has a whole week, so if it does not at least manage above 10k for this whole week, then it's over. It's not getting to even 200,000. I'd almost say 100,000 is out of reach.

Anyway I wonder how New 3DS will do.

Try something closer to 5k for the week.