Support NeoGAF

[Kid Ying]

If by turnaround people mean selling more than it is selling, i think Mario will surely do that. Specially considering it will launch on holidays.

It doesn't mean it's not going to be the worst 3D selling Mario ever. Not that this is for certain, but it's going to be hard not to. Even NSMBU still haven't sold more than Sunshine (even if you consider Luigy U coupled with Mario). The only chance for Mario 3D land is not only to be a hit, but to continuisly sell well over time, which i don't think will happen. It's not the pattern for 3D Mario on consoles and there's not much people with Wiius to guarantee that. There's also a big chance Nintendo would release another Mario over time that would canibalize every chance of this happening.

Anyway, i don't think this will sell more than Sunshine, not like this a problem with the game. It's entirely the console and the manufacture fault. If 3D World sold 800k, that would mean an 80% attach rate now. Crazy.

 

[Magicpaint]

3D World is looking fantastic now, but yeah, the WiiU will most likely be holding it back. I kinda hope it doesn't but we have too much to go with to suggest it wouldn't be the case again. Then again it's not coming a few months after NSMB2 like with NSMBU so maybe that works to its advantage.

 

[Yanikun]

If 3D World sold 800k, that would mean an 80% attach rate now. Crazy.

Why would you talk about attach rate by using current hardware lifetime sales and future software lifetime sales? It's not like nobody will ever buy a Wii U ever again right now and then they will launch the game. It should go without saying, but I'm thinking Monster Hunter 4 would not be on the way to sell +/- four million copies had it been released when the 3DS's ltd sales were at one million...

I think there's no comparison between how much of an appealing product Sunshine was to Japanese people compared to 3D World. I know how bad the Wii U is selling. I know it's below GameCube, Dreamcast and Vita. I know the NSMB series sold astronomical numbers on the DS and the Wii and what NSMBU sold up to this point.

Frankly, I'm surprised that apparently people on here didn't expect the possibility that NSMBU wouldn't have sold one million copies by now. Do people not remember how tired everyone was with the series, how much people complained that that's the Mario game Nintendo decided to launch the Wii U with? Even Reggie, in all his PR bullshit, acknowledged the reaction at last year's E3 by saying, I quote: "For years, this community have said, 'Damnit Reggie, when you launch, you better launch with a Mario game.' So we launch with a Mario game, and they say, 'So what's more?'"

So I don't know why everyone suddenly acts like NSMBU was this brilliant idea that didn't pan out. It was the wrong game releasing at the wrong time. That it hasn't yet sold enough Wii U's to be able to reach a million does not say as much as you think it does. For those who have numbers, had Nintendogs + Cats sold anywhere close to one million at this point in the 3DS's life? Has it sold anywhere close to one million even now?

And the answer to that question is why people should not be shocked at NSMBU's numbers. So yeah I stand by my prediction that 3D World will outsell Sunshine lifetime. I stand by my prediction that, as far as turn-arounds go, all the turn-around I'm expecting is that the Wii U will outsell the GameCube in Japan, and worldwide - and to be clear, by worldwide I don't mean in every region, but in total.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I stand by my prediction that, as far as turn-arounds go, all the turn-around I'm expecting is that the Wii U will outsell the GameCube in Japan, and worldwide - and to be clear, by worldwide I don't mean in every region, but in total.

The problem with saying "all the turn-around I'm expecting is for the Wii U to outsell the GCN worldwide" is that it implies a trivial feat, when in reality it would be a massive turnaround, at least for the US market, where it's already a million behind and the GCN was regularly selling like 2-4x what the Wii U is doing now. Sales need to treble "just" to match the GCN which won't make up any of that 1M delta to date.

Your other implication, which seems to be that it will outsell the GCN worldwide by outselling the GCN in Japan, is also a stretch, given the above about the US market and considering the system is practically dead in European markets.

 

[sörine]

I'm aware that the launch doesn't align. I don't think it's a necessarily unfair comparison, though, considering within the eleven month period both will have one holiday period.

Outside of having the advantage of that first holiday the Wii U hasn't been doing better in the US.

	WIU	PSV
April	37,000	70,000
May	33,000	50,000
June	42,000	75,000
July	29,000	50,000
August	31,000	33,000

EDIT: launch aligned calendar month sales.

And frankly selling marginally better than the Vita would still be a failure. Tl;dr version, it is keeping company with a dead system; outselling the GCN worldwide, at this stage is a very lofty goal.

The issue is that while it's one holiday season each in this 11 month stretch, Vita's launch doesn't coincide with that holiday. Essentially what you're doing with this window is giving Vita two periods of highly concentrated sales to only one for Wii U. If we then push out to 13 or 14 months we get two high sales periods each and my guess is we'll also see Wii U with a comfortable lead in sales again.

I agree with your larger point, marginally higher sales than Vita aren't good and is very much still a failure for Wii U. It's just that the statistic you gave doesn't indicate that, it implied parity between the systems.

 

[spatenfloot]

And in 2 more months Wii U will be ahead again. This is more due to the nature of their launch dates being 4 months apart, meaning next NPD reporting period is Wii U's September versus Vita's December. Wii U will jump ahead again after it's own coming holiday push.

Both systems are doing terribly to this point but on the whole Wii U has done a little better in the US which your statistic sort of clouds.

If you mean in the US, the WiiU is going to get buried by the launch of PS4 and Xbone. The Vita will probably see a boost due to remote play.

 

[iifu]

Let's just all accept that barring some amazing turnaround caused by a surprise hit the Wii U will be lucky to sell close to the GameCube and will probably only see 1 or 2 million sellers in Japan.

 

[Yanikun]

The problem with saying "all the turn-around I'm expecting is for the Wii U to outsell the GCN worldwide" is that it implies a trivial feat, when in reality it would be a massive turnaround, at least for the US market, where it's already a million behind and the GCN was regularly selling like 2-4x what the Wii U is doing now. Sales need to treble "just" to match the GCN which won't make up any of that 1M delta to date.

Your other implication, which seems to be that it will outsell the GCN worldwide by outselling the GCN in Japan, is also a stretch, given the above about the US market and considering the system is practically dead in European markets.

It's not trivial, and yeah, I know it's massive, but in discussions like these, you know there's massive turn-arounds and massive turn-arounds.

See when some people try to be pessimistic and go "at this point, I doubt the Wii U can even sell half of the Wii's lifetime sales"? Just like when people went "The Vita will be fine. If it sold half of what the PSP sold, it would still be a success in today's market."

So I'm just trying to make it clear I'm not talking about miracles. It won't be easy to outsell the GameCube, but it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

Personally, I think Nintendo is stronger and smarter now than during the N64 and GCN days. I don't think you can count them out solely because you don't believe the currently announced games will do that much for the Wii U. They won't do that much for the Wii U, but they will do the trick until, I think, Nintendo will be able to have another phenomenon on their hands. Historically, they're very good at designing phenomena. It's easy to go "Brain Age, NSMB, Wii Fit U and company will no longer work," and I agree with it, but they're incredibly resourceful. If they were good enough to make phenomena out of stuff like Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Collection, Nintendogs, Brain Age, NSMB, or all the Wii__ games, then I think odds that they can create something else that's innovative and that resonates with people are in their favor. I also think they didn't integrate NFC technology in the GamePad for nothing or just for a quick Pokemon Rumble digital game, and we're seeing with Skylanders and Disney Infinity that that tech has strong commercial potential.

In retrospect, I think the GameCube was just a bland console. It was a box that played Nintendo games and they had no other tricks up their sleeves. That's not the Nintendo of today, and the Wii U is not as uninspired a machine. NSMBU and Pikmin 3 and whatever, don't mean quite that much for the Wii U's future. I say I'd be shocked if the Wii U didn't outsell the GameCube, because I believe the Nintendo of today outsmarts the Nintendo of the GCN era.

 

[sörine]

If you mean in the US, the WiiU is going to get buried by the launch of PS4 and Xbone. The Vita will probably see a boost due to remote play.

For the former I expect the burying to really have more impact next year outside PS4 and X1 launch window. For the latter I sort if doubt that ever happening.

 

[Square2015]

When is the WiiU Japanese price drop?

 

[Road]

Dengeki 2013 Fiscal Year First Half Market:
(2013-04-01 ~ 2013-09-29)

Software: 99.7 billion yen (-13.5%)
Hardware: 54.7 billion yen (-9.8%)

Total: 154.4 billion yen (-12.2%)

September 2013:
(2013-09-02 ~ 2013-09-29)

Software: 23.7 billion yen (+63.4%)
Hardware: 13.9 billion yen (+73.4%)

Total: 37.6 billion yen (+67.0%)

August

 

[Aquamarine]

It's not trivial, and yeah, I know it's massive, but in discussions like these, you know there's massive turn-arounds and massive turn-arounds.

See when some people try to be pessimistic and go "at this point, I doubt the Wii U can even sell half of the Wii's lifetime sales"? Just like when people went "The Vita will be fine. If it sold half of what the PSP sold, it would still be a success in today's market."

So I'm just trying to make it clear I'm not talking about miracles. It won't be easy to outsell the GameCube, but it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

Personally, I think Nintendo is stronger and smarter now than during the N64 and GCN days. I don't think you can count them out solely because you don't believe the currently announced games will do that much for the Wii U. They won't do that much for the Wii U, but they will do the trick until, I think, Nintendo will be able to have another phenomenon on their hands. Historically, they're very good at designing phenomena. It's easy to go "Brain Age, NSMB, Wii Fit U and company will no longer work," and I agree with it, but they're incredibly resourceful. If they were good enough to make phenomena out of stuff like Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Collection, Nintendogs, Brain Age, NSMB, or all the Wii__ games, then I think odds that they can create something else that's innovative and that resonates with people are in their favor. I also think they didn't integrate NFC technology in the GamePad for nothing or just for a quick Pokemon Rumble digital game, and we're seeing with Skylanders and Disney Infinity that that tech has strong commercial potential.

In retrospect, I think the GameCube was just a bland console. It was a box that played Nintendo games and they had no other tricks up their sleeves. That's not the Nintendo of today, and the Wii U is not as uninspired a machine. NSMBU and Pikmin 3 and whatever, don't mean quite that much for the Wii U's future. I say I'd be shocked if the Wii U didn't outsell the GameCube, because I believe the Nintendo of today outsmarts the Nintendo of the GCN era.

When making statements like this you have to consider market dynamics.

Take a look at a direct GameCube to Wii U comparison:

We're seeing a distinct, constant 300K gulf between the two consoles. Given the 2x faster pace that GameCube is selling inventory (at the same point in the console's life cycle), and the more robust third-party support, it's increasingly difficult for the Wii U to pull ahead of it domestically.

Wii U's complete lack of mid-tier, Japanese third-party games this holiday season (except for Taiko no Tatsujin) sends a clear signal that a massive amount of third-parties in Japan have little interest in supporting it. Wii U's pitiful hardware sales tells us that retailers have little interest in stocking it. As the console continues to do poorly, third-parties and retailers will react accordingly, digging a deeper and deeper hole for the console. This negative feedback process is what has maintained the 300K gulf between the GameCube and the Wii U. Putting your faith in Nintendo through hope and respect doesn't solve this dilemma.

Suppose Nintendo does come out with a killer app that sells lots of Wii U consoles. That doesn't mean third parties will all of a sudden respect the console. Instead, the blame will shift from "Wii U third-party games can't sell" to "only Wii U first-party games can sell."

You seem interested in the "phenomenons" that Nintendo crafts. The issue is that phenomenons happen semi-erratically. Yes, Nintendo may decide to break new ground by introducing new genres and trying out new concepts, but previous experience with "creating killer apps" doesn't imply that they can continue doing so. Just look at how much Nintendo has been relying on sequels lately. Wii Party U. Wii Fit U. Wii Sports Club. New Super Mario Bros. U. New Super Luigi U. Mario Kart 8. They're all direct repeats of the killer apps created in the previous gen. If Nintendo was so attuned to "creating killer apps," why are they relying on so many sequels to headline the Wii U lineup?

The places where Nintendo has innovated as a 1st-party recently---like The Wonderful 101, Nintendo Land, and Game & Wario---haven't been killer apps. Where has their magical ability to create "new phenomenons" gone? Why are they relying on direct sequels so much to push the console?

It's because Nintendo can't always read the market. Sometimes they get lucky, sometimes they don't. Quick sequels are a guaranteed way to make some money...but they often lose that killer app glamour that used to enchant audiences. The Wii U is getting a lot of quick sequels lately. I don't think that's a sign of a "stronger, smarter Nintendo" at all.

 

[Chris1964]

With the 1.25M figure of preorders for X/Y one week before its release I remember GameFreak used to give preorders for previous Pokemon titles (I'm sure they gave a number for at least Black/White, something close to 2 million). I'm bored to check but there are somewhere in these threads or GameFreak's site if someone wants to do it.

As for 3D World I 'll go with the drop of Pikmin/Pikmin 2 to Pikmin 3: >50%.
I expect the same from Galaxy/Galaxy 2 to 3D World.

 

[Kid Ying]

Well, if it needs to sell, the safest way is to make some sequels. I dont blame them doing it. Specially when the only new ip released sold like ass (lot of excuses for it, but it doesnt change the fact). When youre in a mess like this you need to act in a way youre sure its going to work (not like it really is going to work, but i mean that theyre positive about it).

But Nintendo focus in games for the family is already showing on the little third party support. Namco is releasing Taiko and Disney infinity exclusivw for it. Spike released Epic Mickey for Wiiu and Wii... The problem is that youre not getting new people into the mix, more like giving some appetizers for the ones already there.

If Namco see some sucess in their games, theyre not going to follow with another tekken, but a family fishing or stuff like that.

 

[vinnygambini]

With the 1.25M figure of preorders for X/Y one week before its release I remember GameFreak used to give preorders for previous Pokemon titles (I'm sure they gave a number for at least Black/White, something close to 2 million). I'm bored to check but there are somewhere in these threads or GameFreak's site if someone wants to do it.

As for 3D World I 'll go with the drop of Pikmin/Pikmin 2 to Pikmin 3: >50%.
I expect the same from Galaxy/Galaxy 2 to 3D World.

Here's your answer Chris:

Pokemon Black and White Pre-order sales 1.88 million pre-orders.
Release week sales of 2.56 million

3.5 million by year-end should be manageable.

http://www.gametrailers.com/side-mi...k-2-edges-white-2-pre-order-sell-through-data

I expect Super Mario 3D World to sell 400k in Japan by December 31st 2013. Would that be too high of a figure?

 

[Bruno MB]

Consumer pre-orders for Pokémon Black / White reached 1,08 million units a month before its release. Final pre-order number was 1,88 million.

 

[Afrit]

Is the new model even that much of an attractive propersition? I know its lighter and there are new colours but its the same price as the original. Are people really holding out for that?

I would say yes, but not by much. actually it's hard to tell without at least some preorder data and shipment numbers.

I would say around 30k raise is what I expect.

 

[Aquamarine]

Well, if it needs to sell, the safest way is to make some sequels. I dont blame them doing it. Specially when the only new ip released sold like ass (lot of excuses for it, but it doesnt change the fact). When youre in a mess like this you need to act in a way youre sure its going to work (not like it really is going to work, but i mean that theyre positive about it).

But Nintendo focus in games for the family is already showing on the little third party support. Namco is releasing Taiko and Disney infinity exclusivw for it. Spike released Epic Mickey for Wiiu and Wii... The problem is that youre not getting new people into the mix, more like giving some appetizers for the ones already there.

If Namco see some sucess in their games, theyre not going to follow with another tekken, but a family fishing or stuff like that.

I was criticizing the lack of new IPs in reference to the claim that "Nintendo is great at designing new phenomena."
Of course sequels are the way to go to make money initially. But as we've seen with the Wii U's sales performance, sequels to Wii killer apps have been underwhelming sales-wise so far.

And, I was commenting that releasing direct sequels at launch doesn't mean Nintendo is stronger / smarter. Once thing that Nintendo used to do more often is take existing IPs and come at them from another angle on the successive console.

Examples:

Super Mario World -> Super Mario 64 -> Super Mario Sunshine -> Super Mario Galaxy
Link to the Past -> Ocarina of Time -> Wind Waker
Donkey Kong Country -> Donkey Kong 64

But many Wii U sequels currently announced seem to be much more similar to their Wii originals. Compare the above to:

New Super Mario Bros. Wii -> New Super Mario Bros. U
Wii Fit -> Wii Fit U
Wii Party -> Wii Party U
Smash Bros. Brawl -> Smash Bros. Wii U
Mario Kart Wii -> Mario Kart 8
Donkey Kong Country Returns -> Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

The lack of risks defines the modern Nintendo. I don't think this correlates to "stronger and smarter" because it doesn't help diversify the IP portfolio from the Wii. Safe sequels sometimes work, but aren't always the most appropriate choice for the console ecosystem at launch.

 

[vinnygambini]

Has Mario Party been confirmed for a Japanese release? Surely Nintendo would not leave November empty in Japan. It's a guaranteed 500k seller for the holiday season.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

http://kotaku.com/everyone-gets-pokemon-x-and-y-at-the-same-time-heres-1440558100

PKMN Company expects to reach DP sales with XY.

Japan: 5,815,057 :rip:
Worldwide: 17.63M

Good luck!

Wow. I really didn't think the new MH would be this much in demand. So is it living up to people's expectations, the game not the sales?

It is, it's packed with content, and people are enjoying the new features. It's a really good game.

 

[Immaculate]

http://kotaku.com/everyone-gets-pokemon-x-and-y-at-the-same-time-heres-1440558100

PKMN Company expects to reach DP sales with XY.

Japan: 5,815,057 :rip:
Worldwide: 17.63M

o_o

How long did it take for them to reach that ww number?

 

[Yanikun]

When making statements like this you have to consider market dynamics.

Take a look at a direct GameCube to Wii U comparison:

-snip-

We're seeing a distinct, constant 300K gulf between the two consoles. Given the 2x faster pace that GameCube is selling inventory (at the same point in the console's life cycle), and the more robust third-party support, it's increasingly difficult for the Wii U to pull ahead of it domestically.

I don't think you're making any new points here. Who said it wasn't going to be difficult for the Wii U to pull ahead? Who said Nintendo hadn't made it unnecessarily and increasingly harder for themselves by wasting so much time? The idea behind a "turn-around" is that you're in some kind of negative situation and you will work on how to go to some kind of positive one. In my argument, the current negative situation is the Wii U selling much worse than the GameCube; the positive situation is the Wii U eventually out-selling the GameCube. The turn-around is the difficult feat that Nintendo will need to stop screwing up and have to be smarter to accomplish. I think that they have been overall commercially smarter for a decade, so I think they're capable of it and I think they will succeed (succeed at not failing as bad as it's looking now). They may have had an idiotic strategy up to this point, but they've been tremendously resourceful overall for many, many years.

But that's just me, that's my view of Nintendo's competence and incompetence and how business savvy they are or are not. I can't offer proof of that, it's an interpretation.

Wii U's complete lack of mid-tier, Japanese third-party games this holiday season (except for Taiko no Tatsujin) sends a clear signal that a massive amount of third-parties in Japan have little interest in supporting it. Wii U's pitiful hardware sales tells us that retailers have little interest in stocking it. As the console continues to do poorly, third-parties and retailers will react accordingly, digging a deeper and deeper hole for the console. This negative feedback process is what has maintained the 300K gulf between the GameCube and the Wii U. Putting your faith in Nintendo through hope and respect doesn't solve this dilemma.

Suppose Nintendo does come out with a killer app that sells lots of Wii U consoles. That doesn't mean third parties will all of a sudden respect the console. Instead, the blame will shift from "Wii U third-party games can't sell" to "only Wii U first-party games can sell."

You seem interested in the "phenomenons" that Nintendo crafts. The issue is that phenomenons happen semi-erratically. Yes, Nintendo may decide to break new ground by introducing new genres and trying out new concepts, but previous experience with "creating killer apps" doesn't imply that they can continue doing so. Just look at how much Nintendo has been relying on sequels lately. Wii Party U. Wii Fit U. Wii Sports Club. New Super Mario Bros. U. New Super Luigi U. Mario Kart 8. They're all direct repeats of the killer apps created in the previous gen. If Nintendo was so attuned to "creating killer apps," why are they relying on so many sequels to headline the Wii U lineup?

The places where Nintendo has innovated as a 1st-party recently---like The Wonderful 101, Nintendo Land, and Game & Wario---haven't been killer apps. Where has their magical ability to create "new phenomenons" gone? Why are they relying on direct sequels so much to push the console?

It's because Nintendo can't always read the market. Sometimes they get lucky, sometimes they don't. Quick sequels are a guaranteed way to make some money...but they often lose that killer app glamour that used to enchant audiences. The Wii U is getting a lot of quick sequels lately. I don't think that's a sign of a "stronger, smarter Nintendo" at all.

I said they're historically very good at coming up with new phenomena, I didn't say anything they touch turn to gold. You could use Steel Diver if you want, too.

So indeed you're right, they tried. How good those attempts were, that's debatable. But you're also right that it's a trial-and-error kind of thing. It was a stroke of genius that they could come up with a phenomenon right out of the gate with the Wii, but that's not usually how it happens. New installments in big franchises are absolutely needed for Nintendo to help drive sales during that period of trial-and-error. They know very well that the performance of the Wii U hinges on finding something that will work besides established franchises, and truly make the difference. They may never find it, but the Wii U is much, much more inspired a system than the GameCube, they put a lot of stuff in there that they might be able to utilize for a new phenomenon. The GameCube had nothing of the sort, it had very little potential to go beyond new installments in Nintendo franchises.

And on that note--

But as we've seen with the Wii U's sales performance, sequels to Wii killer apps have been underwhelming sales-wise so far.

--no we haven't. The only sequel to a Wii killer app that's been released on the Wii U is NSMBU, and I think by now it's been sufficiently explained why the game is performing the way it is. Nintendo Land is a new IP; Game & Wario is a new IP; The Wonderful 101 is a new IP; Pikmin 3 is a sequel to a GameCube franchise, that never even was a killer app on the GameCube; Wind Waker is an HD remake of a GameCube game. We have absolutely not seen how underwhelming the sales of sequels to Wii killer apps are.

On that topic though, once again I don't understand the idea behind their digital stance with them. That's one of the reasons why I have more faith in Wii Party U. But since I'm anticipating the reactions here to be similar to what people keep saying about NSMBU's performance, no, I do not expect Wii Party U to come anywhere close to Wii Party's numbers; that's because Wii Party launched in 2010. I do expect it to be a much stronger seller than anything that's been released on the Wii U this year. I don't believe the Wii __ series is as dead as the Brain Age series, I think the series can still provide the Wii U with strong numbers.

On a side note, I also have some confidence in the Wii U because I don't expect the PS4 to do all that well, and lol at Xbox One.

 

[Yamauchi]

How is the Wii U doing in comparison to the Dreamcast at this point? They were launched at almost the same time of year, so I think a week-by-week comparison would be very interesting, but I can't seem to find any pre-2000 Famitsu hardware sales.

 

[metalslimer]

The thing that makes a Wii U turnaround to GC levels so unbelievable right now is the complete lack of 3rd party support going forward. Post this year the Wii U is likely to turn into a Nintendo only machine. Now let's say on average Nintendo gets out at least 1 game a month which is optimistic already. Now let's be generous and say said game averages 250k taking into account the heavy hitters and games that won't break 100k. Unless almost all of Nintendo's games sprout massive legs , the amount of software sold a week outside of the holidays will be abysmal and it;s highly likely that even Vita will have better software sales. This is a large part of the reason the Wii collapsed even while having such huge titles. I'll believe in a turnaround when Nintendo shows more support that can provide some kind of evidence at retail that the Wii U has life.

There's also the need to consider that without the expanded audience many of these Nintendo games are selling to the exact same people thereby blunting some of their system selling abilities.

 

[strangedopamine]

How is the Wii U doing in comparison to the Dreamcast at this point? They were launched at almost the same time of year, so I think a week-by-week comparison would be very interesting, but I can't seem to find any pre-2000 Famitsu hardware sales.

Found this from a previous MC thread:

Hope this helps.

 

[Busaiku]

When is the WiiU Japanese price drop?

There is none.

 

[Otakumegane]

How is Pikmin 3 tracking to Pikmin 2?

 

[cafemomo]

Japan: 5,815,057 :rip:
Worldwide: 17.63M

very large numbers for a

Spoiler

lackluster gen

XY might reach that goal.

might

 

[Aquamarine]

How is the Wii U doing in comparison to the Dreamcast at this point? They were launched at almost the same time of year, so I think a week-by-week comparison would be very interesting, but I can't seem to find any pre-2000 Famitsu hardware sales.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=71160641&postcount=851

^ Made this post back in July.

 

[Road]

I was hoping Dengeki was gonna give Kiseki series sales just to see how different they are too...

                                                                 Famitsu   Media Create

PSP Trails in the Sky                                             33,178        114,161
PSP Trails in the Sky [Best Selection]                            16,635         14,787
PSP Trails in the Sky [PSP the Best]                              33,486         28,383
PS3 Trails in the Sky - Kai HD Edition                            16,517         14,464

PSP Trails in the Sky SC                                          72,610         92,954
PSP Trails in the Sky SC [PSP the Best]                           31,389         30,707
PS3 Trails in the Sky SC - Kai HD Edition                          7,810*         6,847*

PSP Trails in the Sky the 3rd                                     77,972         80,030
PSP Trails in the Sky the 3rd [PSP the Best]                      23,777         20,895
PS3 Trails in the Sky the 3rd - Kai HD Edition                     7,196*         5,970*

PSP Trails in the Sky Complete (FC / SC / Material Collection)     3,100*
PSP Trails in the Sky Set (FC / SC / the 3rd)                     10,397*        28,071
PSP Trails in the Sky Set [Super Price] (FC / SC / the 3rd)       10,248         28,298

PSP Zero no Kiseki                                               120,283        150,334
PSV Zero no Kiseki Evolution                                      38,298         37,919

PSP Ao no Kiseki                                                 212,108        182,031

PS3 Sen no Kiseki                                                 71,868*        67,718*
PSV Sen no Kiseki                                                 93,674*        81,622*


* = only 1 week of sales available.

Btw how does the percentage work ?
Taking my Zelda estimate as en example (100k) am I supposed to say I'm ~220% away (100/31) or is it 69% away (because I must reduce my estimate by 69% before reaching the real sales) ?

First option: absolute(prediction - actual) / actual, but capped at 100% (in your case 220% becomes100%).

 

[Bruno MB]

How is Pikmin 3 tracking to Pikmin 2?

[GCN] Pikmin (Nintendo) {2001.10.26} - 53.325 / 365.969 (502.996 LTD)
[GCN] Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) {2004.04.29} - 9.836 / 401.554 (470.933 LTD)
[WIU] Pikmin 3 (Nintendo) {2013.07.13} - 2.306 / 199.287

 

[Boney]

I was criticizing the lack of new IPs in reference to the claim that "Nintendo is great at designing new phenomena."
Of course sequels are the way to go to make money initially. But as we've seen with the Wii U's sales performance, sequels to Wii killer apps have been underwhelming sales-wise so far.

And, I was commenting that releasing direct sequels at launch doesn't mean Nintendo is stronger / smarter. Once thing that Nintendo used to do more often is take existing IPs and come at them from another angle on the successive console.

Examples:

Super Mario World -> Super Mario 64 -> Super Mario Sunshine -> Super Mario Galaxy
Link to the Past -> Ocarina of Time -> Wind Waker
Donkey Kong Country -> Donkey Kong 64

But many Wii U sequels currently announced seem to be much more similar to their Wii originals. Compare the above to:

New Super Mario Bros. Wii -> New Super Mario Bros. U
Wii Fit -> Wii Fit U
Wii Party -> Wii Party U
Smash Bros. Brawl -> Smash Bros. Wii U
Mario Kart Wii -> Mario Kart 8
Donkey Kong Country Returns -> Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

The lack of risks defines the modern Nintendo. I don't think this correlates to "stronger and smarter" because it doesn't help diversify the IP portfolio from the Wii. Safe sequels sometimes work, but aren't always the most appropriate choice for the console ecosystem at launch.

The idea that it's not games droughts that's been killing Nintendo's momentum over the years, but actually uninspired sequels or rehashes in which they're banking on to kickstart momentum has been killing them.

AC: City Folk, NSMB2/U and Nintendogs + cats come to mind as critically positioned titles that weren't enough to (re)ignite any sort of momentum.
And of course you have titles such as New Leaf, FE: Awakening where they've gone all out to really redesign the games while still appealing to the fans where they've found great success.

Of course on detailed analisis it doesn't hold up, but it's an interesting thing to note, and I hope they can reinvent their franchises. There's a risk of getting an Other M in your hands that's pretty dangerous to all parties involved (except me cause I love it)

 

[hiska-kun]

I'm reading well these Pokemon pre-orders numbers on Media Create website?

 

[Road]

I'm reading well these Pokemon pre-orders numbers on Media Create website?

I don't know. Are you?

Pre-orders (as of):

2013-08-11 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 260,000 / 260,000
2013-08-18
2013-08-25
2013-09-01
2013-09-08
2013-09-15 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - ? / 985,000
2013-09-22 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 117,000 / 1,102,000
2013-09-29 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 158,000 / 1,260,000

 

[hiska-kun]

I don't know. Are you?

Pre-orders (as of):

2013-08-11 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 260,000 / 260,000
2013-08-18
2013-08-25
2013-09-01
2013-09-08
2013-09-15 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - ? / 985,000
2013-09-22 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 117,000 / 1,102,000
2013-09-29 [3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 158,000 / 1,260,000

Thanks to add the totals.

So, for the last week we can see something around 200k pre-orders.

 

[Madouu]

Thanks to add the totals.

So, for the last week we can see something around 200k pre-orders.

So if we round up to 1,5M preorders and apply the same preorder/sales ratio as black and white, that would put it at around 2M units for its first week. Hm.

 

[ohlawd]

17.63 million WW sounds impossible for X/Y.

I mean, look at that number. That's huge.

 

[vinnygambini]

[GCN] Pikmin (Nintendo) {2001.10.26} - 53.325 / 365.969 (502.996 LTD)
[GCN] Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) {2004.04.29} - 9.836 / 401.554 (470.933 LTD)
[WIU] Pikmin 3 (Nintendo) {2013.07.13} - 2.306 / 199.287

 

[ohlawd]

I know dat feel.

Pikmin 3 is an even better game than Pikmin 2; a milestone I thought was out of hand's reach. Oh well, tons of good games underperform or bomb. Way of life.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I know dat feel.

Pikmin 3 is an even better game than Pikmin 2; a milestone I thought was out of hand's reach. Oh well, tons of good games underperform or bomb. Way of life.

Honestly... given the ecosystem it launched in that's a pretty good showing.

 

[Yamauchi]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=71160641&postcount=851

^ Made this post back in July.

Might I ask where you got the data?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wii U's complete lack of mid-tier, Japanese third-party games this holiday season (except for Taiko no Tatsujin) sends a clear signal that a massive amount of third-parties in Japan have little interest in supporting it. Wii U's pitiful hardware sales tells us that retailers have little interest in stocking it. As the console continues to do poorly, third-parties and retailers will react accordingly, digging a deeper and deeper hole for the console. This negative feedback process is what has maintained the 300K gulf between the GameCube and the Wii U. Putting your faith in Nintendo through hope and respect doesn't solve this dilemma.

The thing that makes a Wii U turnaround to GC levels so unbelievable right now is the complete lack of 3rd party support going forward. Post this year the Wii U is likely to turn into a Nintendo only machine. Now let's say on average Nintendo gets out at least 1 game a month which is optimistic already. Now let's be generous and say said game averages 250k taking into account the heavy hitters and games that won't break 100k. Unless almost all of Nintendo's games sprout massive legs , the amount of software sold a week outside of the holidays will be abysmal and it;s highly likely that even Vita will have better software sales. This is a large part of the reason the Wii collapsed even while having such huge titles. I'll believe in a turnaround when Nintendo shows more support that can provide some kind of evidence at retail that the Wii U has life.

There's also the need to consider that without the expanded audience many of these Nintendo games are selling to the exact same people thereby blunting some of their system selling abilities.

Pretty much. This negative feedback loop makes it pretty hard to see a meaningful turn-around.

It basically boils down to a complete lack of positive network effects, in an increasingly network dependent industry.

Consumers beget more consumers.
Consumers beget more developers.
Developers beget more consumers.
Developers beget more developers.

None of these effects are working in favor of the Wii U right now, rather the opposite is happening. It makes the system inherently less valuable as a product for potential consumers and as a platform for potential developers. And Nintendo haven't really indicated any sort of circuit breaker to try and remedy this.

 

[Into]

If by turnaround people mean selling more than it is selling, i think Mario will surely do that. Specially considering it will launch on holidays.

Yep, you would see a "turnaround" even if they delayed every game, including 3D World to next year, simple because of the holiday seasons.

The fact that the goal is even GC like sales shows how far the ship has sunk, had someone told you of this scenario before the Wii U launched, you would have gotten laughed off these forums, branded a troll who yells "Nintendo is dooomed!" etc.

If neither 3D World or Mario Kart performs all that well compared to previous titles and general expectations, i wonder what that will mean for Zelda U, considering the WWHD sales, considering that Zelda is not as big as Mario/Kart/SSB, and considering whatever state the Wii U is in at that time.

By the time that Zelda game is about to release, if fortunes do not significantly change, the Wii U could be a in a coffin getting the nails hammered in come late 2014-2015

 

[thepotatoman]

How is the Wii U doing in comparison to the Dreamcast at this point? They were launched at almost the same time of year, so I think a week-by-week comparison would be very interesting, but I can't seem to find any pre-2000 Famitsu hardware sales.

I've been following this race the closest. Just shift Dreamcast numbers up one row if you want to see calendar aligned instead of launch aligned since Dreamcast launched one week sooner.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Auk08dCFbiLZdDM1NEthSWctSXJZU2ozclpKaDdQSUE

Obviously the rounded Wii U numbers past week 43 are just my random guesses purposely created to put it behind Dreamcast just for fun to see the worst case for Wii U could be. I don't think the numbers are that unfathomable though. I expect only about 30-50K more than that through new years.

 

[Sandfox]

The Sen no Kiseki bump was extremely small; I wonder if this will become a trend.

 

[Freezie KO]

I was criticizing the lack of new IPs in reference to the claim that "Nintendo is great at designing new phenomena."
Of course sequels are the way to go to make money initially. But as we've seen with the Wii U's sales performance, sequels to Wii killer apps have been underwhelming sales-wise so far.

And, I was commenting that releasing direct sequels at launch doesn't mean Nintendo is stronger / smarter. Once thing that Nintendo used to do more often is take existing IPs and come at them from another angle on the successive console.

Examples:

Super Mario World -> Super Mario 64 -> Super Mario Sunshine -> Super Mario Galaxy
Link to the Past -> Ocarina of Time -> Wind Waker
Donkey Kong Country -> Donkey Kong 64

But many Wii U sequels currently announced seem to be much more similar to their Wii originals. Compare the above to:

New Super Mario Bros. Wii -> New Super Mario Bros. U
Wii Fit -> Wii Fit U
Wii Party -> Wii Party U
Smash Bros. Brawl -> Smash Bros. Wii U
Mario Kart Wii -> Mario Kart 8
Donkey Kong Country Returns -> Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

The lack of risks defines the modern Nintendo. I don't think this correlates to "stronger and smarter" because it doesn't help diversify the IP portfolio from the Wii. Safe sequels sometimes work, but aren't always the most appropriate choice for the console ecosystem at launch.

In addition to your point, many of these experiences are also available in similar form on the very popular 3DS.

So a person who has a 3DS for Monster Hunter can still get Mario Kart 7, Super Mario 3D Land, Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D, New Super Mario Bros 2, and Super Smash Bros for 3DS. Each one has an equivalent experience on the other platform.

This strategy is weakening their brand without even getting the people they thought were shoe-ins to jump on board. Wii U is a disaster from the hardware concept down to the software strategy.

Personally, I'm glad a remake didn't come and save the day for Nintendo. Their software strategy isn't good for them, it's not good for casual fans, and it's not even good for Nintendo fans.

 

[Otakumegane]

[GCN] Pikmin (Nintendo) {2001.10.26} - 53.325 / 365.969 (502.996 LTD)
[GCN] Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) {2004.04.29} - 9.836 / 401.554 (470.933 LTD)
[WIU] Pikmin 3 (Nintendo) {2013.07.13} - 2.306 / 199.287

Man, Pikmin 3 is such a improvement too.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

I do find it odd how the NSMB series been thrown under the bus as not a system seller by some people lately. Conventional wisdowm was very different before launch, especially before NSMB2 released on 3DS a few months before. Hindsight and all that, but interesting to point out all the same.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I do find it odd how the NSMB series been thrown under the bus as not a system seller by some people lately. Conventional wisdowm was very different before launch, especially before NSMB2 released on 3DS a few months before. Hindsight and all that, but interesting to point out all the same.

It is a system-seller - but the system already has enough other problems and a title like NSMB U doesnt fix the subpar 3rd party support or marketing. WiiU is already a bad selling system, could you imagine the sales without NSMB U.

Trying to sell an "expensive" HD console on games like Nintendo Land or NSMB U in this enviroment isnt enough anymore. Next year will be reallly interesting....i wonder how many First Party IPs will fall victim to the WiiU curse. They better have a strong consistent lineup ready once ario Katz 8 hit if they ever want to revive this system. They better get MH4HD soon too.

 

[michaelius]

Trying to sell an "expensive" HD console on games like Nintendo Land or NSMB U in this enviroment isnt enough anymore. Next year will be reallly interesting....i wonder how many First Party IPs will fall victim to the WiiU curse. They better have a strong consistent lineup ready once ario Katz 8 hit if they ever want to revive this system. They better get MH4HD soon too.

Wii U is getting Frontier so why would they compete with themselves and release 4HD taking subscribers from themselves ?