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Media Create Sales: Week 41, 2014 (Oct 06 - Oct 12)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I thought PS4 is doing worst than Dreamcast allign?
Pennywise83
Banned
Which must be considered a great result, since a lot of people were thinking that 3DS would have sold 1,5-2m this year, with PSV taking the lead (just read early 2014 MC threads).
Technically, 2DS is still $/129,99. Point is, 2DS is an inferior version that should not directly compete with 3DS. 2DS should be a $/99,99 hardware, in my opinion, and all versions should be /$30 cheaper. Entry price is an issue when games cost a lot as well (most popular games across kids are also expensive, see Skylanders), and previous Nintendo handheld platforms were cheaper to begin with. It might not the only factor, but it surely plays a role.
Most likely, yeah. We've seen it on TGS already.
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
The Vita with its high res screen was such a huge success...
The 3DS doesn't have enough games? Hilarious comment
There will never be a dedicated gaming handheld more successful than the 3DS. The next Nintendo handheld will probably be a mixture between console controller and handheld.
The battle of the generation is it the Balls which will win or will the masochist game will win lol.^_^
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
As they should be. They are probably preparing for early 2015 which seems like the best time for an advertising blitz about PS4.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't really know how unrealistic expectations about the PSV have anything to do with assessing the 3DS. And yes, the situation was looking a lot worse prior to the announcement and release of a revision.
But it's still looking at another significant sequential annual decline. You want to call it great, I guess that's your prerogative.
And again, the point of my posts was the wider context. It's doing great in Japan, okay, we'll go with that for the sake of discussion... if we're looking at Japan in isolation while ignoring how it fits into the bigger picture for the system's sales and for Nintendo as a whole.
http://blog.jp.square-enix.com/sep_japan/2014/10/000743.html
Who is ready for another FFXV/FFtype0HD live stream on October 31st?
26th GE2RB, 28th DQHeroes, 31st FFXV/0HD. My free time (´・ω・`)
Who is ready for another FFXV/FFtype0HD live stream on October 31st?
I am!!!!!!!!!!!
26th GE2RB, 28th DQHeroes, 31st FFXV/0HD. My free time (´・ω・`)
Really? A LOT OF people said that in these threads?
Can you quote those users? I want to have a laugh.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
In Japan it is, yeah - shinra's talking worldwide
Pennywise83
Banned
Don't have time, sorry.
I remember reading some discussions developing on the fact that 3DS was selling like shit in 2014 (it averaged around 25-30k during some periods) and PSV even surpassed it in some occasions (the hashtag "champion", "beastmode", and such). So for some people it was clear that 3DS was going to decline around 50% of the previous year.
No Pokémon was announced yet, Youkai Watch was yet to become such a phenomenon, New 3DS / XL wasn't that predictable, and Super Smash Bros. wasn't seen as the hit it became. The feeling was that 3DS was going to massively drop this year,
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Stop, stop, someone already did.
Don't forget, some users on this site are fucking mental.
and others are totally unable to detect mirth and merriment.
No wonder I am at loss. In Media-Create topic and suddenly international level of sale discussion happen makes me confused lol.
Ah ah ah ! "for the sake of discussion"... Do you confirm reality, at least for the sake of discussion...? You're using a curious wording here.
I understand the point of your post, not your point about 3DS in Japan. Nobody is discussing (disagreeing with your statement) its weak western performance, but it's not a reason to lowball its Jp performance as you're doing.
Dave..... That post of u..... None of that become true right...
The only bit that wasn't true was the Knack mention. The rest is technically true, even if the presentation was somewhat 'massaged'.
It remains to be seen if 2014 > 2013 for Vita though. Fingers crossed.
Well, 3DS is already falling behind 2013 so yeah u are correct lol.
And I am sure that Vita 2014 is going to do well right? After holiday is coming.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't consider it great. I consider it's YTD okay. Prior to the announcement and release of a revision it's performance was frankly pretty poor even if it was the only system with signs of life. If it reaches 3M for the year, I could perhaps consider it good. It's still another sequential annual decline. It's still the worst year the system has had. Even if we're looking at Japan in isolation.
Is that okay with you? Or do I need to conform to your thinking?
Bolded is useless, I'm not you.
You're the one rightfully highligting how the market has evolved (smartphone f2p etc...) and I fully agree.
Given this hypercompetitive context, given how the smartphone market is strong and well structured in Japan (with big players/publishers), given the 3DS is soon entering in its fourth year, given it's able to have several million sellers/year (first & 3rd party), given the new revision seems to be performing well (if not great), given how OG 3DS is performing (weak) overseas..., yes, with this context in mind, as of today it's doing more than just ok, or well "for the sake of the discussion", in Japan (et en France aussi) it's doing great.
I'm ready to downgrade to just "well" if you agree to upgrade your "okay" and we'll be done.
Magicpaint
Member
Note that 3M is not dramatically less than peak years of PS2, GBA and PSP (two of them 20m+ selling devices). By any other metric it won't be "perhaps" good but certainly good, if not great. I think when you've already had a 15m userbase, in Japan, in the first couple of years then your worst year is perhaps just around the corner. The 3DS much like the DS (and the Wii but it is a more dramatic example) had its highs very early compared to most other systems -- with more stable sales curves -- and I think that's why YOY comparisons tend to be overstated in its case, because we're looking at a different kind of sales curve. When the DS went through a similar decline in 2008 (from 2007 which was also a decline from 2006) we had the DSi but that still didn't stop the obvious decline. It's simply a natural and expected decline. Do people seriously think years like 2012/2013 are sustainable in Japan? That'd be unprecedented.
BishopLamont
Banned
Usually systems drop hard leading up to revisions, 3ds didn't really experience this, not sure what Nintendo's shipments up to june says anything about this situation.
Either way, all i'm saying is that the old models are probably nearly gone, there's no real reason for Nintendo to prolong or overship the old models once they had plans for the revision.
I think a PS4 bundle would push more systems than anything released for it so far.
Not too much higher, it seems ARR is only 544p on PS3.
DQX's 3DS legibility was something SE was said to be working on so we should probably see how that goes. I'm not sure why UI elements don't get pushed to the touchscreen but maybe there's logistics issues with streaming that data separately. The planned Android/iOS streaming service for FFXIII and other games might be something to look at too.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's somewhat bemusing how often discussion becomes purely semantic. Given all that local context as a qualifier sure, it's selling well if you prefer. I don't really draw a huge distinction between well and okay; although I guess the the latter is more along the lines of well enough or pretty good.
And it's all still peripheral to the point I was trying to make anyway, which is that selling well in Japan isn't really enough - it needs to be selling more than however one chooses to describe its performance, given the even broader context of its importance to Nintendo's financial position, the failure of their other product category everywhere, and other geographies under-performance/decline.
test_account
XP-39C²
Thanks.
Its common to do comparisons to other things. Its not really right or wrong in that sense. I cant recall seeing anyone saying that the 3DS sales in total in Japan are bad though. I think i've only seen mention of it being worse than the DS.
Magicpaint
Member
And I think most can agree to that. Though there's the danger to misevaluate sales in a specific market because you're looking at the broader context. Basically the problem is elsewhere, and not necessarily in Japan. When sales for the DS/DSi dropped in Japan they were more than compensated for with growth in the West. The opposite is happening with the 3DS so the decline in Japan appears even more visible.
It's so hard to aknowledge 3DS is doing good in Japan that you need to resort to these sort of discursive tactics?
You know, sometime it's easy, really, you just need to let it go, like I do: despite its great results in a hypercompetitive market, 3DS Jp results won't offset the global handheld decline because selling well in Japan is not really enough.
I think you won't find many people to disagree with this in this thread.
It means that unless you have access to Nintendo shipments you have no idea how much they shipped 4 months after June untl new 3DS launch and if it will take 1-2 weeks or 1-2 months for the remaining stock to be cleared.
3DS old model stock will be cleard in 10 years due to lack of Western sales, I think
;p
shinra-bansho
Member
I really don't know what your issue is. It's good. It's well. It's okay. It was entirely peripheral to the point being made.
Also negative contextual factors have been mentioned, but there are positive ones often not considered. The dedicated market in Japan consolidated towards handhelds over the last generation or so, and the 3DS has further consolidated that market given its capturing of key third party brands. It's probably worthwhile to incorporate that context too in assessing current performance, relative historical performance etc.
I'd say the problem is everywhere including Japan, though. Namely substitution, and the gradual saturation of the market that remains. Prior to the revision, the outlook wasn't optimistic although I recall some maintain that a natural saturation effect isn't a given. We'll see in coming weeks and months how much of a stopgap the revision will be in stemming decline due to the above issues.
Also negative contextual factors have been mentioned, but there are positive ones often not considered. The dedicated market in Japan consolidated towards handhelds over the last generation or so, and the 3DS has further consolidated that market given its capturing of key third party brands. It's probably worthwhile to incorporate that context too in assessing current performance, relative historical performance etc.
My use of the word okay, apparently.
Pennywise83
Banned
So, in the last few weeks, 3DS received a lot of support in terms of niche games, something that sometimes was stressed to be lackluster; they mostly are slated for 2015:
- Assassination Classroom: Grand Siege on Kurosense! from Bandai Namco
- Kurokos Basketball: Ties to the Future from Bandai Namco
- The Seven Deadly Sins: Unjust Sin from Bandai Namco
- Rilakkuma Nakayoshi Collection from Rocket Company
- Doraemon: Nobitas Space Hero Record of Space Heroes from FuRyu
- Terra Formars: Akaki Hoshi no Gekitō from FuRyu
- Dora English from Shogakukan
If 3DS is selling great, well, ok or bad in Japan. And if there's much stock left of the old 3DS models in Japan.
And now... Will Smash Bros 3DS beat Smash Bros Brawl LTD this year? (2.4 million unless it has sold more this past weeks lingering in the low positions of the charts). I think it'll be reaaaaally close
The 3DS section of EBGames/BestBuy/WalMart/target is the same as the DS one in its prime.
Handhelds never had a big shelf space anyway.
Pennywise83
Banned
Yeah, even when DS was at its peak, stores always allocated more space shelf to home console. Wii always had much more shelf space than DS in Italy.
I think it's good to keep a steady weekly pace.
Now, for 2015 what is completely missing are the "big guns".
Also because, apart from DQ, everyone already released all theirs (SE could still launch DQ Monster or even DQXI); maybe we cuold see YW3, Pokemon Z, another "Puzzle and Dragon" game? We could see some other sequel in middle range sellers (Fire Embelm? Another Mario Land?) but up to now it's hard to imagine another list of million sellers for 3DS.
Personally I tend to feel what's missing is the same thing that's missing in the West, namely mid-tier titles.
Like here's a full list of everything that has done between 100,000 and 500,000 copies so far this year:
This is a list of 12 titles (I included downloadable here for Trozei since I felt it was primarily a DL title, but excluded it from all other categories to be more favorable to mid-tier games/against the argument I'm making). Of these titles, five (we'll count Taiko which is 197K) are above 200K, and one is above 400K.
By comparison:
-There are 29 games with LTDs below 100,000 excluding downloadable titles and ultimate hits.
-There are 5 games above 500K (with three being above 1 million, and one above 2 million).
Now, there's still a lot of time for releases given the holiday season is coming up, but this is the area I feel is getting dry. The mid-tier games seem to be fading in the same way we see it fading in the West between the blockbuster releases and downloadable indie titles.
That's what also stuck out to be about the TGS announcement window for the 3DS. We have a lot of almost assured super successes (especially given that shouldn't be a very high number anyway realistically), and a lot of really small titles, but how many of these are going to be over 100K? How about 200K or higher?
This is not a problem exclusive to the 3DS certainly, but I think it's part of the market that leaves people who bought those games feeling a bit left out, and I think that extends worldwide to dedicated devices in general.
Pennywise83
Banned
Mid-tier games are less and less on traditional hardware, this is true.
You have also to consider that many 3DS reached the 100k mark after a year or so, because they tend to have legs. Some of those <100k sellers will reach the mark during the holiday season.
You have also to consider that many 3DS reached the 100k mark after a year or so, because they tend to have legs. Some of those <100k sellers will reach the mark during the holiday season.
Sammy Samusu
Member
I hope Legend of Legacy hits 100k.
To me the biggest glaring gap is as we go up above 200K and into the million sellers.
This is the complete list so far:
200K:
-Yoshi's New Island: 207,456
-Story of Seasons: 220,599
-Persona Q: 246,590
300K
-Nothing
400K:
-Mario Party: Island Tour: 433,980
500K:
-Nothing
600K:
-Kirby: Triple Deluxe: 650,068
700K:
-Dragon Quest Monsters 2: 739,032
800K:
-Nothing
900K:
-Nothing
1000K:
-Nothing
1100K:
-Nothing
1200K:
-Nothing
1300K:
-Nothing
1400K:
-Nothing
1500K:
-Nothing
1600K:
-Monster Hunter: 1,617,949 (first week only)
-Smash Bros: 1,621,464
Is there anything that will speculatively slot into this list? I mean Smash and Monster Hunter will move up a lot, and presumably Yokai Watch 2: Expac will get up into the millions as well, but for the other tiers especially.
Final Fantasy Explorers seems like a good bet, and Taiko should do well in the holiday season.
My other concern would be where the staff who made the mid-tier games went, where I feel like I've felt a lot of them show up in mobile, seen decline, or been merged into mega teams, but I'll have to wait until later today to have enough time to do the research necessary.
Pennywise83
Banned
I added some games that might fill those slots. Of course, there are many evergreen games that might end up there as well.
Mainly mobile games, imo.
For potential future 3DS 100k+ sellers I'd consider:
Aikatsu! 365 Idol Days (Bandai Namco)
Attack on Titain: Last Wings of Mankind Chain (Spike Chunsoft)
Bravely Second (Square Enix)
Codename S.T.E.A.M. (Nintendo)
Derby Stallion Gold (Enterbrain)
Etrian Odyssey II Untold: The Fafnir Knight (Atlus)
Final Fantasy Explorers (Square Enix)
Great Detective Pikachu (Pokémon)
Hatsune Miku Project Mirai Deluxe (Sega)
Hero Bank 2 (Sega)
Kenka Bancho 6: Blood & Soul (Spike Chunsoft)
One Piece: Super Grand Battle! X (Bandai Namco)
Pokémon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (Pokémon)
PoPoLoCrois Story of Seasons (Marvelous)
Samurai Warriors Chronicles 3 (Koei Tecmo)
Tales of the World: Rev Unitia (Bandai Namco)
The Great Ave Attorney (Capcom)
The Legend of Legacy (FuRyu)
Xenoblade Chronicles 3D (Nintendo)
Yo-Kai Watch 2 Shuinuki (Level 5)
And potential 100k+ downloads:
Diffusion Million Arthur (Square Enix)
Killca Drive (Aplus)
3D Final Fantasy I (Square Enix)
Aikatsu! 365 Idol Days (Bandai Namco)
Attack on Titain: Last Wings of Mankind Chain (Spike Chunsoft)
Bravely Second (Square Enix)
Codename S.T.E.A.M. (Nintendo)
Derby Stallion Gold (Enterbrain)
Etrian Odyssey II Untold: The Fafnir Knight (Atlus)
Final Fantasy Explorers (Square Enix)
Great Detective Pikachu (Pokémon)
Hatsune Miku Project Mirai Deluxe (Sega)
Hero Bank 2 (Sega)
Kenka Bancho 6: Blood & Soul (Spike Chunsoft)
One Piece: Super Grand Battle! X (Bandai Namco)
Pokémon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (Pokémon)
PoPoLoCrois Story of Seasons (Marvelous)
Samurai Warriors Chronicles 3 (Koei Tecmo)
Tales of the World: Rev Unitia (Bandai Namco)
The Great Ave Attorney (Capcom)
The Legend of Legacy (FuRyu)
Xenoblade Chronicles 3D (Nintendo)
Yo-Kai Watch 2 Shuinuki (Level 5)
And potential 100k+ downloads:
Diffusion Million Arthur (Square Enix)
Killca Drive (Aplus)
3D Final Fantasy I (Square Enix)