The return of Crystal Chronicles!
I'd expect maybe a port of XIV, with multi-platform action on Lightning Returns or Versus if that ships within our lifetime. I certainly wouldn't expect a new mainline entry exclusive to Wii U.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 42, 2012 (Oct 15 - Oct 21)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
The return of Crystal Chronicles!
I'd expect maybe a port of XIV, with multi-platform action on Lightning Returns or Versus if that ships within our lifetime. I certainly wouldn't expect a new mainline entry exclusive to Wii U.
Out of those 3, the only one I would say possibly portends trouble for Wii U is Lightning Returns.
We'll see-I honestly half expected a FF13 collection to already be announced.
To make myself clear, I don't think its a lock at all, but if Wii U establishes itself in Japan I think a Wii U version of the next mainline FF is likely. This isn't a FF13 situation where it was already announced before Wii ever released in Japan. I suspect things are a lot more fluid this time around.
So if Lightning Returns comes out and isn't on Wii U, would you say that's a sign Square Enix isn't really weighing the platform for the mainline franchise, or an anomaly specific to that game (and potentially Versus).
I never said, and do not expect a FF mainline Wii U exclusive. I said that if Wii U does well in Japan I think a version of the next mainline game is likely.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Japanese devs going for PS4 level "high end" is not the logical conclusion though. Look at how they struggled even with PS3 and retreated to DS/PSP this gen... what do you think will happen next time around where resource demands take another generational leap all around? Especially with the GREE/iOS monster also looming?
Square Enix, Capcom, Bandai Namco, Tecmo Koei, Level 5 and pretty much everyone will still be putting their highest profile Japanese franchises on Nintendo hardware, and I expect Wii U to still get a good number of them (Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Taiko, One Piece, Musou, Inazuma Eleven, etc, etc) over PS4. The big odd one out is Konami, thanks almost exclusively to Kojima, which amounts to one series that (sort of) matters in Japan, while Wii U still probably gets Winning Eleven/Power Pro.
I know this sounds like waffling, but I could see it being either of those.
I'll say this- if by next year around this time there is no Final Fantasy project announced for Wii U or even hinted at, then I'll say my theory is unlikely.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Just like Vita got MH this gen?
Wii U will also get FF, RE and (maybe even) MGS in the next couple years. I expect Bandai Namco to go heavy PS3/Wii U. One Piece Musou 2 seems significantly more likely there than PS4.
Monster Hunter is going to be very interesting on Wii U. Given how Capcom's acted, I suspect there will never be a game developed from the ground up for it.
All the franchises I noted depend on international sales a lot more than Monster Hunter.
Your expectation of support from FF, and RE is more than a bit foolish. If Wii U gets exclusive entries in those series, it will be marked spinoffs. If it gets PS3/Wii U ports that serves little benefit to Wii U given the audience for those games will very much be on PS3 at this point.
All the franchises I noted depend on international sales a lot more than Monster Hunter.
Your expectation of support from FF, and RE is more than a bit foolish. If Wii U gets exclusive entries in those series, it will be marked spinoffs. If it gets PS3/Wii U ports that serves little benefit to Wii U given the audience for those games will very much be on PS3 at this point.
That's fair.
I'm not trying to pressure you, but I'm just trying to understand what our bar of measurement is.
As a quick follow-up though, does any Final Fantasy games count, or are things like Chocobo's Dungeon, eShop games, or Crystal Chronicles excluded?
I would exclude those.
One point I forgot to make- right or wrong, Nintendo seems pretty averse to having anyone announce 2013 stuff at all. I'm not going to read too much into things as far as SE support and other companies yet.
ShockingAlberto
Member
I'd actually love if they HD'd up Crystal Chronicles Gamecube and just ported it to Wii U.
That and Symphonia HD seem like easy money. Which means it won't happen.
That's why I actually find Square Enix an interesting example, since they were allowed to announce Dragon Quest X incredibly early for the platform.
As a side note though, what's our perspective on when we view Wii U announcements as freeform allowed? I mean, we're not seriously suggesting people won't be allowed to announce Wii U versions until four months before they come out the entire generation right?
frankie_baby
Member
Dragon quest 10 is a fairly early release for the platform though and with a beta available at launch
frankie_baby
Member
Principate
Saint Titanfall
No I'm saying just because a system has the big games that are typically western focused doesn't automatically mean it'll sell well in Japan. There's obviously a lot more to it than that. If there' s large price difference and wii u gets the majority of the support you could see a vita like situation (though it probably won't be anywhere near as bad), there are other factors than simply having final fantasy metal gear etc. The PS3 in itself didn't sell gangbusters in Japan and what it did sell were mostly due to the supposed "otaku" games and partly those big franchises. However if Nintendo manages to get those franchises/types of games while being cheaper than the PS4 (and it most probably will be) the PS4 standing at the moment doesn't seem so great that it could hand wave such a scenario, with the Vita's issues the Playstation brand isn't doing so great in Japan.
It's pretty obvious Japan isn't quite as AAA focused as the west, and that sales of there games aren't dependent on graphical capabilities as much as in the west. So simply being more powerful won't neccesarily give it the edge and Japanese support aimed at western audiences may not neccesarily do that either. Basically Sony will determine the success of the PS4 in Japan not really 3rd parties, it'll have to actually persuade the consumers to by the product rather than rely on potenial third party games. E.g Nintendo with the wii. The system will probably have to be attractive to the consumer anyway without final fantasies and the metal gears. If those franchises were exclusive it would probably be easier, but that would be an if.
Yeah DQX was certainly the exception. I wonder if that was SE just really wanting to be able to reassure investors that they were not just releasing a MMO on a dying platform?
As to Wii U announcements that is a good question. Obviously that excuse will not fly forever. I would assume by summer fall 2013 things should be going full blast.
electroplankton
Banned
I think Sony have been taking third parties granted since PS2.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
RE6 Wii U is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point. Longer term I think there's still many variables though. Given the expense and resource demands of the RE6 project overall, it's going to be interesting to see how Capcom goes forward when the game drastically misses it's 7m target in April. Dragon's Bomba too, Capcom has a lot to consider in the next transition and as their Vita support shows, they're not unlikely to buck the expected trend with platform support. Especially when Nintendo incentivises, I mean they "stole" RE once already in the past, they "stole" MH just now too...
SE with FF is iffier, and PDD1 has pretty much taken the mainline FF series as their own at this point (outside MMOs) and they prefer to push the visual envelope. On the other hand, the franchise has been precipitously declining in the west, FFXIII overall has been a bit of a disaster and Nintendo's hungry for JP content.", there's weakness and opportunity here. It's not quite the kingmaker MHP was on PSP, but FFXIII was PS3's biggest game and definitely it's most important in Japan and if I was Iwata, I know what series I'd be setting sights on if I wanted to ensure a stillborn PS4.
And I'm not abdicating exclusives, none of those series are exclusive at all by this point and I can't see them going back.
Oh okay, I see what you're arguing.
My post was under the assumption that they were on PS4 and not the Wii U, and presuming the Xbox and PC were irrelevant to the market based on history.
Yes, if all of those are multiplatform, then their existence on the platform does not hold the same value.
I'm not saying you're wrong here, but not allowing any long term announcements until after the other consoles are announced, perhaps months afterwards if we're talking Fall, seems kind of strange to me, since it would heavily block perception of their platform having long term support if we're sitting at E3 and third parties are announcing games that could be years out on PS4/720, yet only in the next 3-4 months for Wii U.
Hero of Legend
Member
And Graces f did worse correct? Any updates on the totals?
Still have no clue (outside of potential favoring Sony's side) why they're doing remakes on Vita, on the other hand, they were on the DS before, so maybe it wouldn't make sense on the 3DS? Who knows, but still, wouldn't they possibly fare better on 3DS, given how well the 3DS is doing for 3rd-parties? LBX is doing extremely well for an updated 3DS port of an update on the PSP, which got the game in the first place.
I don't know.
But Symphonia is much older and would benefit being on the 3DS (or Wii U) seeing as the brand is almost exclusive to Nintendo, and is such outside of Japan.
I do notice that in both cases (Abyss and the remakes) are switching manufacturers, as in a Sony game to Nintendo, and Nintendo games to Sony.
So that would mean that Legendia and Destiny (and even the Radiant Mythology series) could very likely be candidates to the 3DS.
What are the odds of Vesperia, Graces f, and Xillia getting Wii U ports? They should not go the entire gen without making Symphonia 3 a Wii U exclusive though.
It's a shame that the Tales series is all over the place seemingly, I mean the series does well on Sony platforms in Japan, but Symphonia did huge numbers outside of Japan thanks mostly to Nintendo marketing the game.
One solution is to make a game on a Sony console in Japan, and a Nintendo version outside Japan, but would it be worth the porting costs?
I'm not expecting big success for Wii U on the hardcore gamer front in the west largely because western third parties always attempt for the best visuals possible. This means that Final Fantasy, and Resident Evil wouldn't have as large as a western userbase as possible to launch onto.
Symphonia was a game that was at the right place in the right time in the west. I don't think that can ever be replicated with that series. What Namco Bandai should do is pressure SCE to start featuring the games in worldwide events.
I fear Nintendo would be the best choice for something like this, not SCE.
Given the cinematic and presentation focus Sony has, I wouldn't expect them to feature third party games without high end visuals at international events, with the exception of maybe near launch since at that point they simply want to show off a lot of games.
That said, there are a lot of third party games with great graphics they could still likely fill that requirement with.
electroplankton
Banned
Didn't Symphonia 2 sell basically on par with 360 Vesperia in the US? And Abyss 3DS actually performed more than expected in Europe? And both selling better than Graces f? And didn't Abyss doubled Innocence R sales in Japan? Namco should really change its strategy for Tales of series, at least for what concerns side projects.
Again, I don't think Resident Evil and Final Fantasy are really that similar in terms of sales from the West. I'm pretty sure Final Fantasy is much more dependent on Japan.
If we use FFXIII, it would be about 2/3rds West to 1/3rd Japan.
If we use FFXIII-2, it would be about the same in "shipments"/channel stuffing.
That said, the series is on a huge decline in the West and a slightly less huge (but still gigantic) decline in Japan if we go by the difference between those two entries.
I think we would have to see FFXV first though to tell which market they decided to try and change the series for more.
The west very much is the secondary market for Tales. Japan is the primary market for that series and pretty much every single one has sold better on PlayStation home consoles than another manufacturer's hardware. Namco Bandai has seemingly settled on that "We're niche" fact based on Xillia's localization announcement even after Graces f didn't exactly burn up North America.
You can certainly argue that side projects, like remakes/ports and spinoffs are better served on other hardware but I wasn't talking about that. I'd assume a true Symphonia sequel would be held to higher regard than that.
I wouldn't ever expect them to bring out Hideo Baba at E3 or something but featuring those games in sizzle reels and event booths shouldn't exactly be impossible to achieve. Nor would SCEE doing some TV ads for the games in countries that buy them, like France, assuming Scamco doesn't do that themselves.
electroplankton
Banned
Graces f was a complete failure in NA, it's different. By the way, the most recent precedent for an handheld Tales of speaks for itself. And 3DS is a much healthier platform now than around launch.
Re FF, the graphics have become a hugely important point in the series since FFVII. Every single FF game that was released starting with FFVII was basically hailed as having the best graphics at the time (hell FFXIII still beats many games coming out this year in terms of graphics). As such, especially with the Luminuous engine being used to create the next few FF games, I would expect the mainline series to be on PS4/Xbox (depending on how each platform will be selling).
I fully expect LR to come to Wii U, maybe with like 6 month delay or something, though. I also think that FFXIV will come to Wii U (and kinda hope DQX comes to the ps3). But for FFXV coming to Wii U? Not a chance unless we'll be at a situation where ps4 and xbox have bother userbase of 10 milion people each and Wii U has 50.
I fully expect LR to come to Wii U, maybe with like 6 month delay or something, though. I also think that FFXIV will come to Wii U (and kinda hope DQX comes to the ps3). But for FFXV coming to Wii U? Not a chance unless we'll be at a situation where ps4 and xbox have bother userbase of 10 milion people each and Wii U has 50.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I think Wii U's early performance with ports like MH3G, DQX and various Musou will dictate how things go forward in Japan. The west is actually an easier sell though imo, Wii even had decent early success as a core platform overseas and the reasons that didn't last won't necessairily be replicated.
RE5 is the first time the franchise debuted on the most powerful console of the day though, I don't think the bleeding edge is as necessary for this series as you seem to think. After the visual miracles Capcom performed with Revelations, a ground up Wii U based RE7 (which could then be up-ported to PS4/XB3) would probably be pretty spectacular looking anyway.
Unfortunately for PS4 though, Wii U isn't it's only roadblock. 3DS and PS3 are even bigger threats in many ways, on top of the platform's inherent national disadvantages. Vita's kindly removed itself from the race it looks like though.
Probably not, but it's really Scamo's own fault. From Symphonia on the games with any western viability should've been Nintendo/PlayStation multiplatform if at all possible so they could build both markets. Even in 2006 I bet Abyss would've done better on GC than it did on PS2 in the west.
SCE is a lost cause though. When was the last time they made a 3rd party Japanese game a success worldwide? The 1990s?
metalslimer
Member
God no. FF13's constant delays forced the game into 2009 at the same time when better looking games had been already come out. The game had a gorgeous artstyle, but technically the game didn't seem like anything special. Wonky animations, muddy textures, and I'm pretty sure there was a lack of AA as well.
Honestly, with the way FF has declined this generation does anyone really think that people still care about what kind of graphics FF has? Is that really going to be the way FF returns to its former glory? Square Enix needs to do something drastic with that series, or next thing you know FF15 won't sell a million copies. Of course this doesn't mean I think it should necessarily be on Wii U. Like Nirolak said, I don't think Wii U is going to garner that much more core support in the west than the Wii did. Western 3rd parties seem to have made their choice. Hell GTA5 not being on Wii U is all I need to know. And since Japanese 3rd parties sell their big games in the west, whatever the western 3rd parties do with their big games, Japanese 3rd parties will follow for franchises like Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, etc. Now I do expect some cross platform games for stuff like Tekken, Street Fighter, etc. because I think it won't take much to run it. And Tales might go multiplatform as well since that studio seems to be not interested in pushing the systems at all.
Maybe it's premature to say, but Nintendo seems to have failed in garnering the big 3rd party support they wanted. Either that or they are sitting on a goldmine of announcements for January- February.
What kind of influence are we talking here?
Onimusha and Dark Souls were pretty big Japanese 3rd party franchises that come to mind. Though to what extent SCE pushed those titles personally is anyone's estimation. I think it's less about SCE pushing Japanese titles and more likely SCE not really having any titles to push...
Father_Brain
Banned
I think it's premature right now, though there are certainly reasons to be pessimistic. But by the end of the year, we should (as opposed to will) have a much better sense of how Japanese third-party support is shaping up for 2013.
FWIW, I'd still give Lightning Returns 60-40 odds of getting a simultaneous Wii U release, but if it doesn't, that'd obviously be a very bad sign.
Slow afternoon so some more graphs based on number of games in the Media Create Top 50 (click on them to make them larger)
Managed to go back to 2007 using this link http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=416253 with only one week of missing data
(btw thanks to Chris1964, donny2112, PantherLotus, Cheesemeister, cvxfreak and anyone else who has been posting the data - special thanks to Jasoncheng for saving a few weeks in 2007!)
Before 2007 details begin to become hard to come by, if anyone knows of a reliable online resource for earlier data i would be very pleased to hear from you, would love to go back as far as DS and PSP launches!
anyway ...
First graph shows the share for all platforms since 2007. My god the DS was a monster. More surprising is the length of time it took for the PSP and especially the PS3 to gain any sort of foothold, and how long the PS2 hung on. The changeover from DS to 3DS seems almost seamless, but the 3DS has a long way to go to match up to its predecessor. Have fun spotting the Gamecube (Gotcha Force) and GBA (Final Fantasy VI Advance) games!
To further expand on the PS3 let's look at consoles only. Look at the difference between the Wii and PS3 right after launch - the Wii manages an average of 6.4 games per week in the Top 50 for 2007, whereas the PS3 manages only 1.8 including a gap of 8 straight weeks with no games in the Top 50 - ouch! it isn't until the fall of 2009 that the PS3 starts having a grip on the charts - and look how long it took for the PS2 to tail off. I like the way that every fall there is a PS3 spike, followed by a Wii spike over the holiday season.
Finally a look at the straight numbers for handhelds. Largest DS week was 38 out of 50 - makes me curious about 2006! Those DS & PSP lines converging over 3 years and the PSP finally getting its day in the sun in 2011 is a thing of beauty.
Managed to go back to 2007 using this link http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=416253 with only one week of missing data
(btw thanks to Chris1964, donny2112, PantherLotus, Cheesemeister, cvxfreak and anyone else who has been posting the data - special thanks to Jasoncheng for saving a few weeks in 2007!)
Before 2007 details begin to become hard to come by, if anyone knows of a reliable online resource for earlier data i would be very pleased to hear from you, would love to go back as far as DS and PSP launches!
anyway ...
First graph shows the share for all platforms since 2007. My god the DS was a monster. More surprising is the length of time it took for the PSP and especially the PS3 to gain any sort of foothold, and how long the PS2 hung on. The changeover from DS to 3DS seems almost seamless, but the 3DS has a long way to go to match up to its predecessor. Have fun spotting the Gamecube (Gotcha Force) and GBA (Final Fantasy VI Advance) games!
To further expand on the PS3 let's look at consoles only. Look at the difference between the Wii and PS3 right after launch - the Wii manages an average of 6.4 games per week in the Top 50 for 2007, whereas the PS3 manages only 1.8 including a gap of 8 straight weeks with no games in the Top 50 - ouch! it isn't until the fall of 2009 that the PS3 starts having a grip on the charts - and look how long it took for the PS2 to tail off. I like the way that every fall there is a PS3 spike, followed by a Wii spike over the holiday season.
Finally a look at the straight numbers for handhelds. Largest DS week was 38 out of 50 - makes me curious about 2006! Those DS & PSP lines converging over 3 years and the PSP finally getting its day in the sun in 2011 is a thing of beauty.
Shocking news, company who hasn't published a Japanese third party retail title outside of Japan since the 1990s hasn't successfully marketed a Japanese third party game outside of Japan since the 1990s.
SCE's involvement with co-marketing campaigns like MGS4 are hard to say since that game was going to sell well whether or not SCE was involved.
Graces f sold 70k in North America. That is nothing to write home about but I guess Scamco has made peace with that. As for the handheld entries, I honestly don't know what you're trying to say. Is this some salt over the remake series on Vita or something? Because if it is, well there's a thread regarding Hearts R's announcement for you to talk about.
walking fiend
Member
I believe the reason Nintendo is focusing on launch window titles, is that they don't want people holding off the purchase of the console till bigger games are released.
Let's say they would announce next 3D Zelda or Mario to arrive on the next October; I would imagine a lot of people will hold off purchasing the console until those two games hit. Because they think:
OK, I am not going to buy more than a few games till the October, so why waste my money on multiplat games? I will just hold off and spend the money on games I really want to play.
---
This obviously have the advantage that they can:
1. make a larger installed based faster
2. force the installed based to buy best games that are available 'now', which includes a lot of 3rd party games.
I still think Tales follows Final Fantasy, and XIII was PS3 through and through in Japan. Multi-plat FFXV on PS4/Wii U, and then follow that up with a multi-plat Tales, and you'll probably see similar comparisons between the two games on the two systems.
Series was cancelled. Creator said something about if Hudson died, it'd stop or something or other. Any way, series is dead now.
Mainline Final Fantasy and RE will be there. Kojima doesn't like Nintendo platforms, even when they're capable of running the games. Unless Konami strongarms him (and they won't) "real" MGS won't be on the system. Sort of the opposite of Mikami.
wat
I use Scamco for shorthand because sometimes the extra second it takes to type out Bandai Namco feels so long. My collection is littered with their games so it's not like I have some beef beyond them doing shady things sometimes. Capcom on the other hand ...
electroplankton
Banned
No, I don't care about Tales of. You were trying to argue that Symphonia sold well on GC jusy by chance and underlying that Tales of should stay forever on Sony platforms. Sales told us that Abyss sold more than Innocence R, and 3DS is a more viable platform than Vita so, once again, Namco decision to bring a game of the series of Vita is not the right decision. The only right decision seemed to me to bring Tales of on PS3 lately.
Dragon Quest is a special case. Best not to try to plan what the Square part of Square-Enix does based on what happens or doesn't happen with Dragon Quest.
metalslimer
Member
This would be one of the dumbest strategies I've ever heard. If people would hold off until the new 3D Mario they would be screwed anyway.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Yeah, SCE seems to invest for promotion/dusyribution only in franchises already big outside Japan really (RE, FF, MGS, etc), which is why suggesting Tales makes zero sense. That's actually more Nintendo's wheelhouse and they have a pretty decent recent track record of it (Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, Professor Layton, etc). Hell, they did it with Tales even already way back with Symphonia to record success.Shocking news, company who hasn't published a Japanese third party retail title outside of Japan since the 1990s hasn't successfully marketed a Japanese third party game outside of Japan since the 1990s.
SCE's involvement with co-marketing campaigns like MGS4 are hard to say since that game was going to sell well whether or not SCE was involved.
I wonder what Graces Wii could've done had Namco tried for a similar deal with Nintendo?
metalslimer
Member
Not much considering the state of the Wii in the west in regards to 3rd party games, especially a JRPG
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
From rumors it seems like remaking the DS trilogy was planned well in advance of Vita's release even. Hearts R might be far enough along already to where it makes more sense to just keep going. These are also seeminly low budget outsourced Tales, so they probably aren't breaking the bank.
I wouldn't rule out future 3DS Tales either. An Alfasystem made Narikiri Dungeon 4 and/or Symphonia 3D port/remake both seem like pretty logical releases.
Actually in the last Direct they detailed that the beta would be in February and the release in spring. So the "beta at launch" is actually "you get into the beta if you buy the black Wii U at launch".
Still it is an early high profile title and Wii U and DQX will support each other quite nicely and I think they'll drive each other's sales too.
Edit:
Actually I agree with the poster you replied to. FFXIII was incredibly clean from a technical standpoint: no tearing, stable high frame rate and very impressive visually. I haven't seen another PS3 title that compares graphically in terms of polish. Especially FFXIII-2 had noticably worse graphics than the original.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
If a deal had gone through, it'd have probably been a 2010 or early 2011 game at latest. Graces Wii today would have assurredly bombed just as bad as Graces f did, no question.
FF13 is 720p with 2xMSAA. That's better IQ than 95% of all HD console games.
Now return to your regularly scheduled sales talk!