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[Erethian]

What is interesting about the Comgnet charts is that we can extrapolate what a game could have sold

No, you really can't.

It's a curiosity, nothing more. It adds about as much to accurate sales predictions as Amazon rankings.

 

[Kandinsky]

Why do we care about Comgnet and Amazon ranking again?

 

[zero_suit]

Why do we care about Comgnet and Amazon ranking again?

No idea really, especially when it doesn't mean shit for Nintendo games.

 

[LOCK]

Yeah, if you expect the 3DS to match that, and still contunie to do very strong in January and Februrary, then it has a chance It has to do about 170k - 175k in average each week for the upcoming 15-16 weeks.

Yes, my statement meant the first year, not the CY.

The 3DS has a decent Q1, so sales should stay steady and strong from an amazing holiday.

 

[Road]

Famitsu
[PSP] Final Fantasy Type-0 (Square Enix) - 503,000
Dengeki
[PSP] Final Fantasy Type-0 (Square Enix) - 494,000
Media Create
[PSP] Final Fantasy Type-0 (Square Enix) - 472,000


Some recent differences below. Some are big differences, others are just one tracker being more distant from the other two (or the three disagreeing -- Ace Combat).

                                              F         D        MC


[PS3]Monster Hunter Freedom 3 HD Ver.        283       [U]316[/U]       288

[PSP]AKB1/48: Idol to Guam de Koishitara...  [U]257[/U]       239       237

[PS3]Dark Souls                              [U]229[/U]       272       280

[PSP]The Legend of Heroes: Ao no Kiseki      [U]151[/U]       131       128

[PS3]Gekijouban Macross F: Sayonara no...    [U]115[/U]       143       143

[PS3]Resident Evil: Revival Selection         77        76        [U]94[/U]

[PS3]No More Heroes: Red Zone Edition         40        [U]25[/U]        40


[PS3]Pro Evolution Soccer 2012               269       [U]283[/U]       272

[PS3]Tales of Xillia                         513       510       [U]526[/U]

[PS3]Ace Combat: Assault Horizon             125       138       149

[WII]Rhythm Heaven Fever                     [U]131[/U]       117       118


(First week in thousands.)

 

[test_account]

well, the reason that I said next two weeks, is that actually no major game is coming out in the second week; it is obvious that we will have a great bump this week due to 3dl, but the question is whether it'll carry into the next week. (RS3 is pretty small, btw)

I understand. It shall be interesting to see what happends for sure

It was supply-constrained that entire time. December, in particular, was at least a few 100K under what it could've been if supply had been there. The shortage didn't let up until Golden Week in April 2007.

DS also had some huge supply-problems between January 1, 2006 and the DSLite's launch in March. 3DS can make up some major ground in that part.

When first looking at the graph, I thought it meant through the end of the CY, which would've been end of December. I thought it was a bit too much to overcome GBA in that case. However knowing that it goes into February, 3DS could very well pass up GBA, if it has a December similar to what the DS did in 2005 without the supply-shortages that followed.

If the DS wasnt supply constrained back then, it would have sold even more indeed, meaning that the 3DS would have even a higher number to match or surpass. I think that the 2.8 million to match GBA seems high enough as it is

Yes, my statement meant the first year, not the CY.

The 3DS has a decent Q1, so sales should stay steady and strong from an amazing holiday.

Yeah, then it has to do about 170k - 175k each week for the next 15-16 weeks to achieve that I think that sounds quite much, but only time will tell.

 

[Mpl90]

No, you really can't.

It's a curiosity, nothing more. It adds about as much to accurate sales predictions as Amazon rankings.

Mmh. I thought I wrote "we can try to extrapolate"...because obviously Comgnet is a possible indicator, but NOT an absolute indicator. It can be a good indicator especially with "core" franchises, when you think about the ratios' trends... but alone is NOT good enough.
It was late, my bad. XD

Sinobi don't say anything about how last week sales have been, right?

 

[king zell]

it's Monday i thought we would get early numbers for Mario and the new color.

 

[Spiegel]

We never get early numbers for non-million selling releases or new colors.

 

[Kenka]

Yeah, I am eagerly waiting for those numbers too. We'll two really long days before Wednesday. No other retailers' statements caught the attention of GAF outside the fact that Mario was selling good and the Ice console rather ok ?

 

[Chris1964]

We never get early numbers for non-million selling releases or new colors.

Wii Sports Resort - 353.827

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1225419_1124.html

 

[Mpl90]

Wii Sports Resort - 353.827

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1225419_1124.html

We got also the numbers for NSMBWii first week, and it did less than one million.
But we didn't have Wii numbers for that week, and Wii did 100k in that particular occasion.
So, it's still possible 3DS can have sold 100k or more last week.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

About the DS vs 3DS discussions, please remember that 3DS is going to receive this Christmas with Mario Land, Mario Kart and Monster Hunter as recent releases so its JP Christmas numbers may be the highest of the 3DS history.

Maybe, but what if 3DS got say MH4, NSMB3D and Tomodachi Collection next holiday? I think there's quite a bit of room ahead of 3DS for major titles, and really I don't see MH3G or Mario 3D Land even being among it's biggest over it's lifetime.

 

[Mpl90]

Nah, this is gonna be a very huge Holiday for 3DS, but we can't say it'll be its greatest...because there are so many titles from so many brands that could be released in the future on 3DS. And we've already got some of these other titles as announced (MH4 above all of them)

 

[Chris1964]

It seems there are problems with MH3G initial shipment at some stores but it's not known if this applies too to the big ones.

 

[Mpl90]

It seems there are problems with MH3G initial shipments at some stores but it's not known if this applies too to the big ones.

What kind of problems?

 

[Chris1964]

Low shipments.

 

[walking fiend]

Low shipments.

1.2m is simply not enough. I guess unless they actually change their prediction and make more copies, there will be a lot of shortage

 

[BurntPork]

1.2m is simply not enough. I guess unless they actually change their prediction and make more copies, there will be a lot of shortage

I really have doubts that it can sell that much that fast on a platform as new as the 3DS...

 

[Mpl90]

Low shipments.

1.2 millions...low?

 

[Spiegel]

first shipment != expectations for the full fiscal year

Wii Sports Resort - 353.827

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1225419_1124.html

True.

 

[Mpl90]

first shipment != expectations for the full fiscal year




True.

Yeah, you should be right.
Especially after what happened to the original, probably Capcom was ready to ship only 500-600k, but now they need more...

 

[BurntPork]

first shipment != expectations for the full fiscal year




True.

Exactly. How could it sell 1.2 million in the first 1-2 weeks? 3DS will only be at ~3.5 million by then, so it seems very unlikely.

 

[Chris1964]

True.

Lately enterbrain isn't in the mood of giving early numbers.

The only we know we'll get for sure are Vita's. I have my doubts for XIII-2 if it doesn't hit one million at first week.

 

[Mpl90]

Lately enterbrain isn't in the mood of giving early numbers.

The only we know we'll get for sure are Vita's. I have my doubts for XIII-2 if it doesn't hit one million at first week.

Sony fanboys or what?

For FFXIII-2?
Eeeh, I fear it won't do one million in the FW, but we could get it with an update on FFXIII's numbers, who knows.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

I want to stress out that there is a factor that nobody seems to take in due consideration, but that could affect heavily MH3G sales, at least in the short term; Mario kart 7 is probably going to sell well since the first week, let's say hypothetically 500k, so when MH will be hitting the shelves shortly how many of those who purchased MK7 at launch may be willing to buy MH as well within just a week?

As far as I am concerned both games may be successful reaching the million mark in a couple weeks, many people buying both of them, with hardware sales consequently hitting new records, but I can't help thinking those two much anticipated titles are scheduled within such a short period that the one's success may hinder the other one's.

Let's wait and see!

 

[BurntPork]

I want to stress out that there is a factor that nobody seems to take in due consideration, but that could affect heavily MH3G sales, at least in the short term; Mario kart 7 is probably going to sell well since the first week, let's say hypothetically 500k, so when MH will be hitting the shelves shortly how many of those who purchased MK7 at launch may be willing to buy MH as well within just a week?

As far as I am concerned both games may be successful reaching the million mark in a couple weeks, many people buying both of them, with hardware sales consequently hitting new records, but I can't help thinking those two much anticipated titles are scheduled within such a short period that the one's success may hinder the other one's.

Let's wait and see!

That's not really an issue, since they have totally different fanbases.

 

[donny2112]

I want to stress out that there is a factor that nobody seems to take in due consideration, but that could affect heavily MH3G sales, at least in the short term; Mario kart 7 is probably going to sell well since the first week, let's say hypothetically 500k, so when MH will be hitting the shelves shortly how many of those who purchased MK7 at launch may be willing to buy MH as well within just a week?

You're assuming there is great crossover between a 3-4m selling PSP exclusive series (in the dedicated handheld arena) and 3-4m selling Mario Kart DS owners. I wouldn't think that is a safe assumption. They're both mainstream titles, so there'll be some crossover, for sure. However, I wouldn't say that the average Mario Kart owner and the average Monster Hunter owner are one in the same. That's what makes this New Year's so interesting. It's not 2-3 big Nintendo franchises all selling to the same audience. It's 2-3 big overall franchises selling to different audiences. Could be very, very big in terms of sales, in that case.

 

[king zell]

cant wait for Mario numbers, it has the chance to be the best selling 3DS LTD game in Japan in it's first week, nice

 

[BowieZ]

Does this mean anything?

　Merchandisers have a suggestion of game software products to merchants in TSUTAYA (MD) Mr. Matsuo warrior. Mr. Matsuo buyer more than 10 years, specializes in developing products that are tailored to the characteristics of the software from the experience. To analyze the flow of experienced buyers hit, to predict the future movement.
　"3D Super Mario Land" (3DS, Nintendo) has won the top sales than expected. Showed overwhelming strength especially families, has been achieved in only 4 days to two weeks worth of sales were expected. New Color "Ice White" was released also help, and sales shot up to 2.5 times the body.
　Expression "Final Fantasy Zero" (PSP, Square Enix) in third place followed by the "Battlefield 3" (PS3, Electronic Arts), the fourth "Uncharted Atlantis sleep in the desert" (PS3, SCE) is ranked. I think I was cannibalizing the audience, the border 20 years old "Battlefield 3" is strong in their teens, "Uncharted" is clearly divided up 30-39 demographic, in both previous work and more than double that recorded good results.

TSUTAYAで加盟店にゲームソフトの商品提案をしているマーチャンダイザー（MD）の松尾武人さん。バイヤー歴10年以上の松尾さんは、その経験からソフトの特徴に合わせた商品展開を得意としている。ベテランバイヤーがヒットの流れを解析し、今後の動きを予想する。
　「スーパーマリオ3Dランド」（3DS、任天堂）が予想以上の売れ行きでトップを獲得しました。ファミリー層を中心に圧倒的な強さを見せ、想定していた2週間分の売り上げをわずか4日間で達成しています。新色「アイスホワイト」が発売されたことも手伝って、本体の売り上げも2．5倍にはね上がっています。
　「ファイナルファンタジー零式」（PSP、スクウェア・エニックス）に続く3位には「バトルフィールド3」（PS3、エレクトロニック・アーツ）、4位には「アンチャーテッド　砂漠に眠るアトランティス」（PS3、SCE）がランクイン。ユーザー層を食い合うかと思っていたのですが、20歳を境に「バトルフィールド3」は10代に強く、「アンチャーテッド」は30代までと購買層がはっきり分かれており、どちらも前作の倍以上という好成績を記録しています。

 

[Mpl90]

We need someone translating from Japanese, not Google.
Is it only a store or a collection of store in a certain area?
However, 2.5 times better would mean something like 150k...mmmmmh...I don't believe these news will have a global value.
But, let's see a competent translation before judging!

 

[BDGAME]

So mario > fft0?

This I eant see.

 

[Rhod]

We need someone translating from Japanese, not Google.
Is it only a store or a collection of store in a certain area?

Tsutaya is a huge retail/rental chain, with multiple branches in most cities. Interesting impressions, if you're into that sort of thing.

 

[Truth101]

So mario > fft0?

This I eant see.

This is FFT0 second week. It would be frontloaded, so there is no way it would outsell mario.

 

[Mpl90]

Tsutaya is a huge retail/rental chain, with multiple branches in most cities. Interesting impressions, if you're into that sort of thing.

Oh.
I demand a good translation, now!

 

[test_account]

"and sales shot up to 2.5 times the body."

The 3DS' body was ready.

 

[Rhod]

Oh.
I demand a good translation, now!

The google trans is fine. No glaring errors.

'Mario has obtained the top ranking by exceeding expectations and selling our predicted first two weeks' volume in four days'.

'3DS hardware jumped 2.5x following Ice White'

'PS3 new big hitters Battlefield and Uncharted somewhat cannibalised each others' sales but still sold over 2x their predecessors'.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

'Mario has obtained the top ranking by exceeding expectations and selling our predicted first two weeks' volume in four days'.

Impressive! We may be in for a surprise come tomorrow! (and some shortages perhaps?)

 

[BowieZ]

I got the ball rolling now someone needs to go googling for articles mentioning any TSUTAYA sales trends and seeing how they line up with final results <_<

 

[Rhod]

I got the ball rolling now someone needs to go googling for articles mentioning any TSUTAYA sales trends and seeing how they line up with final results <_<

Wait 24 hours and you get new M-C data to do all the work for you.

 

[gimz]

Im in tokyo right now, but i dont have my 3DS with me, is there anywhere i can try Mario 3DS demo somewhere? (Shibuya to be exact! Im waiting to meet up some friends in about 45 mins, so i have 45 mins to kill)]

edited: or even better Zelda Skyward Sword demo?? anyone??

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Im in tokyo right now, but i dont have my 3DS with me, is there anywhere i can try Mario 3DS demo somewhere? (Shibuya to be exact! Im waiting to meet up some friends in about 45 mins, so i have 45 mins to kill)

There's a Bic Camera in Shibuya, you could try there! (2-5-9 Dougenzaka, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo)

Or you could try LABI (2-chome, No. 29 twenty Dogenzaka Shibuya-ku, Tokyo - just off JR Shibuya Station Hachiko)

 

[gimz]

There's a Bic Camera in Shibuya, you could try there! (2-5-9 Dougenzaka, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo)

Or you could try Labi.

thanks! Im gonna go there now!

 

[Mpl90]

Ok.
If Tsubaya is believable as an indication of general trends...

The two Galaxys at their second week

03./01. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 74,457 / 325,000
01. / 01. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 105.149 / 445.050 (-69%)

So...400k? O_O

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

400K sounds doable IMO. Not too outlandish (especially if the 3DS really has sold around 150K this week)

 

[Erethian]

That assumes their two week sales expectations were those of the Galaxy games.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Depends on what their predicted two-week sales were based on - sales of the Wii Galaxy titles, sales of NSMB Wii, sales of NSMB etc. etc. I'd imagine they order based on past performance of titles like that, but also based on the general performance of major 3DS titles to date. Perhaps worth tempering expectations?

 

[blu]

'3DS hardware jumped 2.5x following Ice White'

That Ice White is like a friggin Imperial Stormtrooper. ..Hmm, perhaps I should import one.

 

[Mpl90]

400K sounds doable IMO. Not too outlandish (especially if the 3DS really has sold around 150K this week)

400k would be the best debut for a 3D Mario EVER. Not something so normal.
IMHO, they were expecting something in between SMG and SMG2.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

400k would be the best debut for a 3D Mario EVER. Not something so normal.
IMHO, they were expecting something in between SMG and SMG2.

But it isn't really your typical 3D Mario. It's a hybrid of 2D and 3D Mario and has been positioned and promoted as such.