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Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2011 (Oct 31 - Nov 06)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
airmangataosenai
Member
JRPGs tend to do very well on the PS3, especially the past year or so. By the logic you're presenting the Tales franchise should've stayed on the DS.Truth101 said:
Well, as of the start of this coming week slightly more than 2 million 3DS owners do not own SM3DL, although there is probably a bit of crossover with families with multiple 3DSes and single game units per family. Maybe 1.5 million potential unique users or unique households.Chris1964 said:
If Mario + Ice White last week drove 3DS to move 145K units (a good 100K I would say were with Mario) ... and, say ... another 240K existing 3DS-owners (at the time, about 15% of potential unique user/household base) bought the game...
I'd say drop both figures by about oh, 40% (which is, yes, generous)... which is 9% of the 1.5 million non-owners + 60K = 195K.
LOLOLBOWIEZSALEZTHEORIEZLOL
frankie_baby
Member
I'm really doubting it'll hit that first week, yes it will do but possibly could just be down to overshippingduckroll said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
duckroll said:
Here's the thing--13 is the nadir of the series in terms of Japanese sales, whether or not reception amongst those who bought it is good. So 13-2, even with very good retention from 13, isn't likely to sell an outstanding number of units.
On a worldwide basis, the overall sales of 13 was much higher, but we know from both anecdotal stuff and the focus grouping data, that the elements FF13 chooses to retain were the elements least liked by players abroad. With good retention, sales could be good, but retention is likely to be poorer worldwide than it is in Japan.
And both in Japan and worldwide, we're well into the "decline" phase of the generation which means that games that might otherwise have half decent legs through budget sales over the years are likely to be stunted. I mention this, because both FFX and FFX-2 earned an enormous portion of their stateside sales through Greatest Hits--they were both go-to RPGs for the better part of the generation.
So I feel like questioning the business case of the game is pretty valid.
Stumpokapow said:
The game took 2 years to develop, and will almost certainly sell a few million copies worldwide. Are you saying that it will be unprofitable? Game development isn't a purely about maximizing profit at the expense of all else. If the creative staff behind a project want to do something, and that something is almost certainly be very profitable, are you arguing against it? Really?
Mr. Pointy
Member
If MW3 can pass 500k total, I'd be very impressed. If FFXIII-2 can't pass 1.5 million, I'd assume that FFXIII hurt it that badly.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
duckroll said:
I think the idea that FFXIII was not very well-liked is a lot more supported than the Call of Duty criticism. Call of Duty has long legs compared to XIII's absolute none (even for an FF game). FFXIII's review averages weren't particularly high and some of the anecdotal evidence seems strong.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
duckroll said:
He might be wrong, but you're reading it as though he's shitting on the thread, and I really don't think he is, and in so doing you're responding in a way that poisons discussion. If he was actually trolling, I'd find your snark funny, but I kinda feel like he's trying to sincerely talk about something and you're just being bitchy to him in response.
But, just to humour you, although a segment of the population complains about Call of Duty, the audience as a whole is pretty enamored by it. Each subsequent installment has shown growth* (World at War was a slight step back from MW1, but I think that reflects promotional budgets as well as audience reception). There's no real suggestion that specific design decisions are alienating buyers of previous installments. Final Fantasy is a series in decline in Japan--although it's still big. He clearly separated "further Final Fantasy" from "specifically XIII-2". He may be wrong about the reception of the game in Japan, but he is right abroad; I'm sure most people still enjoyed the game, but I think it's pretty inarguable that globally the critical, fan, and wider audience reception for FF13 was chillier than previous installments. In terms of sales, they declined in Japan but not abroad--some of this may be a result of the platform economics changing, but some of it could be the franchise declining.
There. That's a non-troll, reasonable case.
frankie_baby
Member
Will it break 800k week onecvxfreak said:
Stumpokapow said:
I never said he was shitting on the thread. My defense of it is entirely that a vocal minority complains about CoD all the time (MW3 has user reviews on Metacritic of 3.0!!!), but yet they keep making them. FFXIII has a ton of people vocal about how everything about the game sucks and they should never touch the world and characters ever again, and I also feel that is not an accurate view on how many in the fanbase feel about the game.
People who shit on FFXIII generally don't get argued with because people who enjoyed it don't want to spend the energy fighting every single point. But the people who enjoyed it are still looking forward to another game set in the same world, and this game will be profitable. There's nothing personal here. I simply disagree with his point, and there's no reason why I cannot be snarky about it at the same time.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
frankie_baby said:
I suspect yes.
cvxfreak said:
50/50.
I'm thinking 900k-1.1mln first week on lifetime of 1.2-1.4 million or so.
duckroll said:
You didn't say he was shitty on the thread, but you were replying in a significantly less intelligent way than you normally do and intentionally not elaborating on your points. Your whole tone was bitchy. You, like most posters who aren't terrible, only tend to do that when you're replying to someone you believe is trolling, posting in bad faith, or not worth the effort. I don't think that's the case here.
It's true that some games have vocal minorities detracting from them. I don't think that means that there aren't also games that were poorly received. I don't think Call of Duty is a good comparison. I elucidated why just then. Call of Duty, like Mass Effect 2, does have vocal detractors, but it's not clear that reflects a more broad dissatisfaction with the game. On the other hand, there are franchises like Dragon Age where opinion legitimately soured, and you can't hand-wave it away by saying "Everything you see is a minority opinion, there's an invisible majority who like the new way". Is FF one of those franchises or one of the former? You haven't made the case, you just said "Don't believe everything you see" and moved on.
The guy wasn't shitting on the game, he was saying that he believed it was poorly received. Are you arguing: a) It was well received everywhere, ignore the "vocal minority" or b) It was well received in Japan, ignore the apparent western reception? Because the western reception really wasn't particularly kind. It's not just message boards.
By any metric you can define--critical reviews were harsher by a tune of 10 or so points across the board, message boards were harsher, the game dropped in price quicker, it was not in the GOTY conversation at all, anecdotally people seem to have received it poorly, the focus group results that got posted showed negative reactions to the categories that the game emphasized most dramatically, and the game is frequently brought up in unrelated conversations about game design as an example of problematic design. I don't think it's a terrible game and I don't think it was received as a terrible game. I would classify its western reception as "good", which is a pretty significantly decline for a franchise generally known as "industry-leading, bar-setting, amazing". This may not be the case in Japan. The focus group data reflected better reception in Japan.
In which case, the question is begged--is XIII-2 a "sequel for Japan", or is it "a sequel for everybody"? What does it mean if even Square Enix has conceded, in a Sega-like fashion, that they cannot meet the objective of making games for everybody and should focus on maximizing Japanese opportunities and using worldwide sales as a "bonus"?
I really feel like it's an interesting thing to talk about, and I really feel like you replied to that guy's post as though it was a hit and run.
gundamkyoukai
Member
duckroll said:
Yep those numbers seem good , i expect FFXIII-2 to do over 1 million but not much more.
As for Ninokuni if it does over 300k i think they should be happy they still might get some extra sales from NA.
Side note TOX must be at 650k by now.
Stumpokapow said:
Well the issue here is basically "should they have made a sequel to FFXIII" right? If that is the case, then I do not think it is unreasonable to present the case that as a game which clearly sold several million copies, the creative team behind the game is entitled to expand their ideas further with a sequel. The vocal minority I refer to here are people who hate FFXIII so much that there is no way they will remotely give FFXIII-2 a chance at all. That is not to say that the game does not have flaws, since the developers too have clearly been eager to point out that there are significant game design changes and improvements to take into consideration what people liked or disliked about the game based on reasonable feedback.
For it to be a bad idea to even consider making a sequel to FFXIII, the reception for the game would have to be literally bottom of the barrel. It would mean that millions of people bought the game, and almost all of them hated it and will not even consider touching a sequel set in the same world with the same characters ever, and hence it would be a totally pointless business decision to make a sequel. I do not consider this to be remotely true, and I honestly cannot even entertain such an idea because it doesn't seem realistic at all.
You are right that the focus testing feedback is very different between Japanese audiences and western audiences. But what western focus testers disliked most about the characters also tend to be something which is a lot harder to compromise on for the team. The director in particular is experienced with writing and developing this sort of scenario with these sort of characters. Even if you were to put him on a brand new game or IP, the end result will probably also be similar. I believe this applies for most of S-E Japan's internal staff as well.
So this puts them in a spot where they can either continue making what they're familiar with, while paying attention to improving the gameplay mechanics and level design elements which are universal in terms of certain things appealing to a worldwide audience. As such, I don't see how making a sequel to FFXIII, a game which has sold millions, is a worse idea than the same team making another game instead which could either be a new IP, or another FF sequel, which might end up costing more money and taking more time.
I believe that first and foremost, this is a sequel that allows Square Enix to formally gauge the impression that FFXIII has made on the world at large. In terms of character appeal, it is definitely a game more geared towards "Japan" but I do not believe this is a conscious decision but rather one which resulted out of the team doing what they felt they do best, in a natural way. With the various changes and improvements in the structure of the game to appeal to broader tastes, it is clear that this isn't entirely a "Japan-only" game like Yakuza.
What Square Enix probably wants to see out of FFXIII-2, is whether there is indeed a significant enough dislike for this sort of characters and storytelling in a FF game in today's market, so much so that it has a huge negative impact on the sales. If the game bombs or falls to meet expectations, especially worldwide, it will tell the company a lot about how they should move forward after that with future releases.
On the other hand, if they never made FFXIII-2 at all, they would not really know if the endless bitching about how awful FFXIII was is a result of actual frustration and dislike which would result in people not buying the game, or if it's just empty talk. Does this make sense to you?
airmangataosenai said:
Ni no Kuni is not a standard JRPG with established fan base though (or you can argue the base was established on DS). It looks like a game appeals more to the family/younger kid (think Inazuma Eleven) crowd then the usual hardcore JRPG crowd and DS certainly has more of the former crowd than PS3.
Auto_aim1
MeisaMcCaffrey
It probably might, because the PS3 install base is quite higher now than what it was in 2010. FFXIII had a ridiculous attach rate back then which surprised many people, but I don't think it will be the same case with FFXIII-2. Although, 1 million in the first week should be a reasonable target, considering the install base is close to 7 million now compared to 4 million(?) in 2010.cvxfreak said:
AranhaHunter
Banned
I would rather see COD MW3 pass 500K than see FFXIII-2 pass 1 million.
Split will probably be 80/20 for the PS3 in both cases.
Split will probably be 80/20 for the PS3 in both cases.
NeonZ
Member
This is Final Fantasy though. Direct sequels aren't the rule at all. Many games which sold better than FFXIII didn't see sequels.
In this case, FFXIII-2's existence is probably related to development time and cost cutting measures, but I'm not sure if those measures really needed to turn this project into a direct sequel to FFXIII. From my point of view, they could have made a new game using the "Fabula Nova Crystallis" brand, to justify the reused assets, without actually making it a direct sequel to FFXIII.
If the result does end up being negative, and the number of people who didn't care much about FFXIII goes beyond the hardcore internet fanbase, "FFXIII-2" being "FFXIII-2" rather than just a new FF project might end up hurting its sales though.
Of course, I'm not really sure there's a vast majority of people who disliked the game, and I'm just going by my own impressions of the general reaction to it. However, what about the changes that Square are making to FFXIII-2 to address some of the criticism of the last game? Are they all just for western audiences? Square's own reaction to the criticism is part of the reason I think there was a significant backlash.
I think we're going to see a repeat of the FF 8 => FF 9 situation, where people chill on the franchise after a game with many problems, despite a larger hardware base. But it won't be ZOMG BOMBA. That's not how it works. Something on the order of -20%. Which might as well be explained by playing the "spinoff" card.
NeonZ said:
They're not the rule for the overall franchise, but they do seem to be much more of a "rule" these days, especially with Toriyama involved in the projects. This is why I feel that given the reality of what they have to work with, and what this team prefers to do, FFXIII-2 is something that naturally would happen unless FFXIII totally and utterly bombed. In fact, I expected a sequel once I finished the game.
FFX got a direct sequel directed by Toriyama. FFXI has a bunch of expansion packs which are all sequels in terms of story. FFXII got a portable spin-off which is a direct sequel, also directed by Toriyama. FFTA had a numbered sequel. FFVII got a bunch of spin-offs which were either direct prequels or sequels in the timeline. There have also been indications that FF Type-0 is going to get more games in the series.
The way S-E operates today indicates to me that a direct sequel for a game which has sold well is much more a "rule" now than it used to be in the past. Toriyama in particular has indicated that he likes expanding on existing worlds and characters, so there is also a creative preference there.
Well, nothing is for certain of course. FFXIII-2 could bomb, and it could end up being something that causes S-E to panic after that and reflect deeply on how they want to continue selling RPGs outside of Japan. I just personally don't think that is a very likely situation. I also don't feel that a "FFXIII-2" will have more negative impact than a "FF Toriyama Project Another" or whatever that the same team could have made in 2 years.
Sales wise, there isn't a history of non-mainline FF games selling more. Even a direct sequel to a lukewarm numbered FF game would be expected to have better sales than a brand new spin-off. Versus is clearly something that they hope will buck the trend, with Nomura being the main driving force in appeal there. Time will tell if that pays off.
As for what they're doing with FFXIII-2 which is different from FFXIII, they basically admitted that FFXIII lacks choice and options for players, and have expanded a lot of the gameplay and design to meet those criticisms. The level design is more varied, there is supposed to be more exploration, there are multiple endings and a more non-linear approach to how you progress through the chapters. There is time travel. You can collect monsters and raise them, basically filling your empty 3rd character slot with collectable monsters. There are also towns and minigames now, as well as puzzles in some dungeons. Basically they took note of what long time fans specifically disliked about FFXIII in terms of what it lacked compared to previous FFs, and worked those things back into the game.
I don't feel they are all specifically western compromises (some of them, like having dialogue choices in certain scenes definitely seem to be), but rather general design elements which they agreed could have been better managed or designed in the original game. I hope that helps clear things up.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I'd pay an extra 1000 yen rather than leave 40% of my screens dark.Chris1964 said:
Well, it might be silly to go with a sequel to one of the less popular sub-brands. Like, "Big Red One 2" instead of "Modern Warfare 3".duckroll said:
Yeah, that would put it in the range of what X-2 held on to from X. S-E can't hope for much more.duckroll said:
airmangataosenai said:
Because the Tales series hasn't been horribly neglected when it comes to advertising and promotions, and just poorly mismanaged in general?
Ni No Kuni draws its strength from mainstream appeal, which is one of the reasons Level-5 would have gotten Ghibli to collaborate on the art. That doesn't change the fact that is a JRPG, but it gives it a broader audience much like how Nintendo games have.
The PS3 has neither the userbase nor variety in users to put out numbers like the NDS version did.
P.s.
The NDS has been a much more successful platform for JRPGs than the PS3 could ever hope to be.
FFXIII-2 seems effectively a result of Toriyama's development policy: expanding the universes created with the release of successful entries in series, through sequels and spin- offs.
And it seems also a message to all the critics about the prequel, and it had a sort of "cheap" development, due to an already exsisting engine, a better model of work for the mere development, etc.etc.
But I fear Square could be disappointed with the sales of FF XIII-2, because the critics are strong, and effected the game sales in Japan (it's true that it has been released on a PS3 with such a low install base, but it literally dropped after the first week, and used market have been floaded with copies, something very nocive for a RPG, for its reputation ), and Comgnet so far demonstrate that only a "small" part of the people who bought Final Fantasy XIII will buy the sequel.
Not that it's impossible for the game to please players so much to regain credibility about the world behind the two games, and so to guarantee some spin-off games or even another sequel, but I just don't see the signs of this now. Even if FFXIII-2 looks like to be far better than the prequel.
And it seems also a message to all the critics about the prequel, and it had a sort of "cheap" development, due to an already exsisting engine, a better model of work for the mere development, etc.etc.
But I fear Square could be disappointed with the sales of FF XIII-2, because the critics are strong, and effected the game sales in Japan (it's true that it has been released on a PS3 with such a low install base, but it literally dropped after the first week, and used market have been floaded with copies, something very nocive for a RPG, for its reputation ), and Comgnet so far demonstrate that only a "small" part of the people who bought Final Fantasy XIII will buy the sequel.
Not that it's impossible for the game to please players so much to regain credibility about the world behind the two games, and so to guarantee some spin-off games or even another sequel, but I just don't see the signs of this now. Even if FFXIII-2 looks like to be far better than the prequel.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Torne's been a big success, but what about more mainstream minded games? Thinking back to stuff like GT5 or Mingol 5, the sales aren't exactly stellar. Move was a huge flop too.Takao said:
lunchwithyuzo said:
Hots Shots Golf 5 has done more than 500k on the PS3, and likely will never stop selling as long as the PS3 is around, so that's not a case of the PS3's family oriented software performing poorly. Yes, it's a decline from the previous entries, but those were on the PSone, and PS2. Very few franchises can say they're maintaining or besting what they did on those platforms.
As for Move, I don't believe Japan took a liking to the Eyetoy, so I doubt Move would've moved minds.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
500k for a series that used to do 1.5-2m isn't really stellar, and probably shows the upper limit of what these sorts of games can expect on PS3. It getting budget and Move reissues helps too.Takao said:
Move seems like more of a Wii response I'd say, which Japan did take fairly well to. Though Japan Studio never seemed all that behind the platform, so it's probably not the best example.
Sony's Japan Studio is really odd in this regard. Its output is not outright hardcore at all, with a lot of casual, mainstream tendencies. Still it was never the source of or gave support to all those casual driven accessories and IPs that mostly the studios of SCE Europe came up with even before the Wii hit.lunchwithyuzo said:
Prediction League November 14 - 20
[NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle 2 (Bandai Namco Games) - 133,333
[PS3] Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch (Level 5) - 88,888
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Subtitled (Square Enix) - 222,222
Prediction League Whole December X'mas Extra
[3DS] 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 1,666,666
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 444,444
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1,111,111
[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G (Capcom) - 999,999
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 1,111,111
[PSV] Vita Hardware (SCE) - 555,555
[NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle 2 (Bandai Namco Games) - 133,333
[PS3] Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch (Level 5) - 88,888
[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 - Subtitled (Square Enix) - 222,222
Prediction League Whole December X'mas Extra
[3DS] 3DS Hardware (Nintendo) - 1,666,666
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 444,444
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) - 1,111,111
[3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G (Capcom) - 999,999
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) - 1,111,111
[PSV] Vita Hardware (SCE) - 555,555
Seems like a strategic delay to take advantage of a holiday, get it out of the packed 3ds holiday line up and the 3ds will probably have a much larger install base by then. Also I'm not sure New Love Plus is the kind of game people would have bought for other people as a christmas present. The game will probably benefit from this delay.Takao said:
VOOK said:
IT'S ALWAYS KONAMIIIII
Now, seriously, if they did it for improving the game, nothing to say.
Especially because 3DS' Holiday is still jam packed, so no problem here
And the new release date is absolutely perfect.
But February, with this and Theatrhythm and Tekken is starting to be very packed...no Q1 pause for 3DS indeed
Lord_Byron28
Member
Seems like a smart move.Takao said:
I think there are pretty good chances that people who purchase Love Plus may have also purchased a Monster Hunter or Mario Kart game before. I see this strategy only working to Konami's benefit. It's something that relates to the holiday and would likely be greatly overlooked. Not saying it will do amazing numbers or greatly improved numbers in it's new release date but I think this smart of Konami and your condescending attitude is uneeded, imo.
You don't think lining the game up with Valentines day will do anything for its sales or public exposure? Or that maybe someone who buys MHTriG may also want to purchase Love Plus but may not do so day 1 or anytime soon if both are released right next to each other? I think there are plenty of ways this delay could end up being good for the game even just from a promotional standpoint.Jonnyram said:
Edit: How come I didn't quote the cussing? Stealth edit eh? Also how is what I said so shocking or unrealistic? It makes sense.