I think it just gets larger on weekends as it gets closer to launch.
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Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2015 (Oct 26 - Nov 1)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
I think it just gets larger on weekends as it gets closer to launch.
Jon Carter
Member
Ōkami;184735682 said:
Looks dull. Those production values should be enough for the game to sell well, but it doesn't have the polish and style of something like Youkai Watch.
Hero of Legend
Member
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 45 2015
01./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
02./00. [3DS] Disney Magic World 2: My Happy Life <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games)
03./01. [PSV] God Eater: Resurrection <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
04./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops III <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
05./00. [PS4] Fairy Fencer F: Advent Dark Force <RPG> (Compile Heart)
06./03. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes <ADV> (Nintendo)
07./06. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
08./08. [WIU] Super Mario Maker <ETC> (Nintendo)
09./02. [PS4] God Eater: Resurrection <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
10./04. [PSV] Yomawari <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software)
11./00. [PSV] To Love Ru Trouble: Darkness - True Princess <ACT> (FuRyu)
12./12. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
13./11. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5)
14./07. [PS3] Winning Eleven 2016 <SPT> (Konami)
15./13. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team <ACT> (Level 5)
16./09. [3DS] Picross 3D 2 <PZL> (Nintendo)
17./05. [3DS] 7th Dragon III Code: VFD <RPG> (Sega)
18./19. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer <ETC> (Nintendo)
19./17. [3DS] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King <RPG> (Square Enix)
20./20. [3DS] Famista Returns <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games)
01./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
02./00. [3DS] Disney Magic World 2: My Happy Life <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games)
03./01. [PSV] God Eater: Resurrection <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
04./00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops III <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
05./00. [PS4] Fairy Fencer F: Advent Dark Force <RPG> (Compile Heart)
06./03. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes <ADV> (Nintendo)
07./06. [WIU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
08./08. [WIU] Super Mario Maker <ETC> (Nintendo)
09./02. [PS4] God Eater: Resurrection <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
10./04. [PSV] Yomawari <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software)
11./00. [PSV] To Love Ru Trouble: Darkness - True Princess <ACT> (FuRyu)
12./12. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
13./11. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5)
14./07. [PS3] Winning Eleven 2016 <SPT> (Konami)
15./13. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team <ACT> (Level 5)
16./09. [3DS] Picross 3D 2 <PZL> (Nintendo)
17./05. [3DS] 7th Dragon III Code: VFD <RPG> (Sega)
18./19. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer <ETC> (Nintendo)
19./17. [3DS] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King <RPG> (Square Enix)
20./20. [3DS] Famista Returns <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games)
kuroneko0509
Member
probably can expect more preorder for MHX after 19th, since Capcom just announced that demo is coming on that date
http://www.famitsu.com/news/201511/09092540.html
http://www.famitsu.com/news/201511/09092540.html
Isn't this ps4s first full year?
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Sure, but plenty of consoles sold much better in their first full year though. Hopefully it gets better next year and onwards, but we'll see.
GC's launch year (aka September 2001 onwards) > PS4's first year (aka March 2014 onwards). PS4 might at least have a better first full year than GC, but not by a lot...
Can you put up the same 7 days for 4 and 4G when you get the chance please?
Monster Hunter Cross:
Nov 8th(20 days) - 1931pt (+49)
Nov 7th(21 days) - 1882pt (+30)
Nov 6th(22 days) - 1852pt (+24)
Nov 5th(23 days) - 1828pt (+17)
Nov 4th(24 days) - 1811pt (+23)
Nov 3rd(25 days) - 1788pt (+26)
Nov 2nd(26 days) - 1762pt
Monster Hunter 4G
20 days - 1798pt(+52)
21 days - 1746pt(+33)
22 days - 1713pt(+30)
23 days - 1683pt(+19)
24 days - 1664pt(+22)
25 days - 1642pt(+14)
26 days - 1628pt(+43)
Might be a little off on some of that math down there.
Looks like SquareEnix will be publishing Overwatch in Japan for 2016.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1chuoMBtsg
PS4 only? PC and Xbox not mentioned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1chuoMBtsg
PS4 only? PC and Xbox not mentioned.
unapersson
Member
My thinking was partially to do with dev costs. It must make the transition a lot cheaper for them, being able to push out a next gen version of whatever game they're making. And both them and the platform holder will get their cut whichever platform a customer buys it on. It removes some of the risk of a next gen transition, which I assume is why they do it as Japanese publishers seem quite risk averse.
It also accepts the fact that customers (and developers) in Japan seem to move more slowly to new systems but then hold on to it for longer, so while a system might be a big seller out of the gate worldwide, it gives room for Japan to grow more slowly. What was the last system that Japan jumped onto wholesale right out of the gate? It seems to have been a while.
Pennywise83
Banned
Technically, those two games are published by a Japanese company, Gung-ho, which acquired the largest stake in Supercell, the developer. Also, by looking at the positions, it does seem that Western publishers are quite weak in the mobile environment: only one game in the Top 10, only 2 in the Top 20 (and we're talking about one of the two biggest mobile games in the world right now), and only 5 in the Top 50.
So, will MHX beat MH4G first week?
Pennywise83
Banned
Correlation doesn't mean causation - the fact that the show is really popular in *some* countries is not necessarily due to a popular mobile game - also, Sonic has always been hugely popular in UK, by the way. Also, how much is Sega able to monetize Sonic Dash? It seems one of those examples where there a plenty of downloads and hardly any people paying for contents. And what about user activity?
Moor-Angol
Banned
Wii sold 187k on week 1 2010 and 136k on week 52, considering most of the time it kept selling <20k weekly, it was already on the turning point against PS3
I guess I didn't understand your use of finally as if the Ps4 had been on the market for years now.
Anything less would be disappointing tbh - it seems to offer more new stuff than MH4G did and its the only real big release this year...so there is like no competition.
MH4G had the new 3DS launch bonus though.
Last one was probably 3DS. Really it wasn't until Vita/PS4 that we've seen an extended industry supported "slow adoption", historically Japan moves faster to new platforms than the US.
Well, Capcom just released a new trailer which actually really hype tons of fans. As this time, Capcom does not only buff up the player with all those new moves but also buffing the monsters into some kind of limit break form which allow the monster to deal and use tons of crazy powerful moves.^_^
MHX, is surely going to be bigger than MH4G here.^_^
Sammy Samusu
Member
Poor Mpl89
I noticed that the gap between MH4G and MHX is getting smaller. But now with the new PV and demo coming out soon, I believe MHX will start increasing a lot more.
MHX is most likely going to end up selling significantly better than MH4G, but (slightly?) less than MH4.
- more than MH4G because it's a full entry, not just an expension. Might also attract new players with the new features.
- less than MH4 because it's not a mainline entry, changes might put off some hardcore/purists. There's also the fact some players may have had their share of 3DS-gen MH, are expecting an expansion next year (4DS), and whatnot.
I think Capcom's current expectations (2.5m before the end of the FY) seem rather "sane" (as oppose to their grossly underestimating MH4).
It will be interesting to see what Capcom does with MHX moving forward. Do they keep those as a replacement subseries for their now-obsolete Portable series? Do they try to implement (some of) the features in mainline entries?
- more than MH4G because it's a full entry, not just an expension. Might also attract new players with the new features.
- less than MH4 because it's not a mainline entry, changes might put off some hardcore/purists. There's also the fact some players may have had their share of 3DS-gen MH, are expecting an expansion next year (4DS), and whatnot.
I think Capcom's current expectations (2.5m before the end of the FY) seem rather "sane" (as oppose to their grossly underestimating MH4).
It will be interesting to see what Capcom does with MHX moving forward. Do they keep those as a replacement subseries for their now-obsolete Portable series? Do they try to implement (some of) the features in mainline entries?
KillerMan91
Member
PS4 is going to end up with around 1.3 million this year. If we get even half of big promised games next year (and maybe Slim refresh) PS4 should definitely sell over 1.5 million next year. Of course something like 2.5 million is pipe dream without some kind phenomenon around the console. PSVR could be that I mean could. Not saying it will be.
You've made a slight mistake in that SoftBank owns the majority of Supercell, not Gung-Ho, but yes their cross promotions and information sharing with Gung-Ho through their SoftBank ownership was useful in the same way that Square Enix and Sega distributing games for Activision and EA has been very helpful for them.
However, I'd pull back to the context of what I was responding to. crinale stated that the Japanese market was "getting westernized to some extent" by virtue of Western game sales moving from like 1-2% to maybe 3-4% of the market. I was pointing out that we're seeing a similar (very small) market share increase on mobile.
That said, much like console games, Japan is the hardest notably country in the world (with the possible exception of China) for a Western mobile game to succeed in.
I'm not sure if we'd even see Western games grow to 10% of the market in the next 10 years if we're talking in absolute terms.
This is definitely true. Of my statements in Media Create over the years, this one is among the flimsiest simply because I can only point to corporate behaviors instead of market studies.
Similarly, I'd be completely unable to prove that Yokai Watch merchandizing benefits from the game instead of stemming basically entirely from the show, especially given when Yokai Watch really started taking off into the stratosphere. One could take the other side of the coin and even make the argument that the Yokai Watch games are essentially incredibly effective merchandizing items for the show.
Sonic Dash makes effectively zero money from microtransactions (we can't tell in app advertising revenue), even in the UK. Making a sequel on that basis would rank up there with Sega's worst mobile decisions. Now, maybe they simply felt there was a chance to reach a new audience that would pay more with the sequel, but they have the same monetization strategy, so that would be a pretty poor approach to boot.
That said, given I can only offer circumstantial evidence, I'm fine with pulling back my assertions that there's accessory brand value in reaching 150+ million downloads of your game and simply judging them by direct financial performance. In that case though, I'd like to switch my assertion about Nintendo's strategy to note that they should very aggressively monetize all of their mobile games (and making sure they're f2p to boot), since they would not actually be able to receive brand benefits that would drive people toward their other platforms or buying toys for their brands.
Sammy Samusu
Member
That's not entirely true, MHX reuses a lot of stuff (including maps) from the fourth and past generations. That's why it's called "Monster Hunter Cross".
We could speculate that MHX pre-orders are higher because most MH fans already own a 3DS. We will see how many shelve copies they can sell at launch.
Also, we don't really know how well MHX is doing compared to MH4G. We should wait for MC report.
I was under the impression that Monster Hunter X was one of those filler-ish games like Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel, Arkham Origins, or Battlefield: Hardline where they change up a variety of things and have a lot of new content, but it's also clearly not the next major entry in the franchise and is heavily steeped in what came before.
Don't made this error.
In 2013, all guys said 3DS was gonna sell well over 2012 thanks a new super line up like Pokémon, Monster Hunter, ecc.
At the end not only has not sold much more, but even less than in 2012.
Wii U, in 2014 with Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros has sold less than in 2013, and by a lot...
Now, many people say"is a Nintendo console, is not the same as a Sony console" but i don't really see why.
I mean, what's the point with this? We know Nintendo consoles usually sells more in it's firsts years, but they peak the year of the best line up usually, this gen was very strange with this.
And when we talk about Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest, you should get that those games can boost a console for one week, and for one week, i mean seriusly ONE week.
Look PS3 with FF 13... I can see PS4 at >150k for ONE week thanks Final Fantasy XV over 1 million.
Then, Final Fantasy XV should have a massive drop at 80 / 85 % level, and PS4 should drop like a rock, hard to guess the numbers too.
Depend if we talk about a holidays week or not.
If we talk about a normal week ( let's say June-July-August ecc) then i can even see a scenario like:
20k ------> 150k ------> 30k -------> 20k
And yes, we know PS4 will have a very good line up and all in 2016... but don't forget 2015 was a good year too.
That said.
I don't think next year PS4 will sell less than this year. But i believe the sales will be pretty flat. I don't expect a massive increase, and yes, i don't see 1.5 million next year.
Of course, i may be wrong, but over 1.5 million seem too much.
So, as a side note, I noticed that Yume 100 Prince is currently sitting at #4 on the top grossing charts: https://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/app/meng-wang-guoto-mianreru100renno/
I felt I should mention this since between Ensemble Stars and this game, we're seeing a lot of "Husbando games" start to have the types of very strong performances you get with "Waifu games".
It's not been to the same degree or volume, certainly, but that there's growing interest (and monetization) is becoming apparent.
I also feel it's relevant since both these types of games are things that never performed all that well in the dedicated space, whereas things like Puzzle & Dragons, Monster Strike, and White Cat Project all match closer to what did at least fairly well in dedicated gaming before.
I felt I should mention this since between Ensemble Stars and this game, we're seeing a lot of "Husbando games" start to have the types of very strong performances you get with "Waifu games".
It's not been to the same degree or volume, certainly, but that there's growing interest (and monetization) is becoming apparent.
I also feel it's relevant since both these types of games are things that never performed all that well in the dedicated space, whereas things like Puzzle & Dragons, Monster Strike, and White Cat Project all match closer to what did at least fairly well in dedicated gaming before.
kuroneko0509
Member
??? 3DS sales in 2012 is less than 2012??
I think he meant 2013 vs 2012 by context.
dakkumauji
Member
there has also been a bigger push in making these in the last couple of months with almost every company announcing their own version of male idol games: Bamco (idolish7), Sega (yumecast), etc, etc
Moor-Angol
Banned
the problem for 3DS was that the "new Line" didnt have the impact everyone expected (ok i'm talking about 2014)
since nintendo started selling new revisions they both sold well for some time, but with n3DS people just choosed the XL/LL model, which cannibalized sales; just consider they could stop selling 3 models actually in the market and overall 3DS sales should not receive a big impact
WiiU had a different story and the lack of big titles had impact on 2014 sales, just think about how much potential hw sales have been lost due to Smash on 3DS
PS4 has a better second year due to 2 reasons :
- first year line-up lacking
- good marketing decisions (BloodBorne "bundle" and price-drop)
next year will have the first wave of AAA titles so at least we should expected 2016 YOY similar to 2015, 1,5mln is a little hard especially considering that data about home weekly sales average. A big question is how VR will perform.
And honestly i still think 150k for FF15 is too much
I wonder just how much more we actually end up getting next year in terms of AAA than this year, especially when you consider the paramount release that was MGSV (and Battlefront, on top of the surprise performing Witcher 3, and good show from Bloodborne).
We'll get P5, FFXV (maybe), DQH2 (now on three platforms), DQB (on three platforms), KH3 (maybe?), SFV, and Uncharted 4. Anything else of note I am forgetting?
(Also some amount of diminishing returns is going to start kicking in in year 3, where the potential audience has already picked up the console for the known quantities. This is the same thing that tends to seemingly stifle the overall performance of big staples like Smash and Kart -> People know they are coming, and buy whenever before release rather than on release. The longer in a cycle this goes, the more the returns drop.)
Biohazard: Umbrella Corps of course.
Dragon Quest XI, Dark Souls III, Minna no Golf, Yakuza 6.
kuroneko0509
Member
bunch of games are revealed from kadokawa right now for ps systems... 3 4 so far... (Root Letter, Sora 3rd Evo, God Wars, Demon Gaze 2)
Pennywise83
Banned
Feels like DG2 is a bit too late.
Tsutaya's report
- As it was expected Call of Duty Black Ops III for PS4 was the top selling game this week.
- These recent years the series was declining; but this version, compared to last year's Advanced Warfare, sold 130% of the subtitled and dubbed versions all together.
- The PS3 was also released, but the sales concentrated mainly on the PS4.
- Disney Magic Castle 2 had a slow start, but there's no concern since it's expected to sell well during this holiday season.
- As it was expected Call of Duty Black Ops III for PS4 was the top selling game this week.
- These recent years the series was declining; but this version, compared to last year's Advanced Warfare, sold 130% of the subtitled and dubbed versions all together.
- The PS3 was also released, but the sales concentrated mainly on the PS4.
- Disney Magic Castle 2 had a slow start, but there's no concern since it's expected to sell well during this holiday season.
Kresnik258
Member
And then some. I think Ray Gigant's sales showed that the Vita audience has been well served by Exp. Inc DRPG's by now.
I have to wonder how it'll do though, since it's the most Vita-audience friendly.
KillerMan91
Member
I just don't see how 1.5 million is that overkill? It's not even that high number by any means and PS4 is already going to do around 1.3 million this year. Even better line up than this year (with some actual japanese heavy hitters like FFXV and exclusive mainline Yakuza, possibly DQXI too) combined with another price cut and maybe some kind of boost from VR. I am repeating this but in 2009 PS3 was tracking behind PS4s this years numbers before launch of the Slim and FFXIII and went to sell around 1.9 million. While I don't think PS4 will reach those numbers I don't see how 1.5 million is that unattainable. Comparison to 3DS have a difference that 3DS was pulling so high numbers already in 2012 (over 5 million) that in that case single titles don't affect the overall sales of the year as much and predicting is a lot harder.
Good start for COD.
5 Million is big for 3DS like 1.3 Million is big for PS4, and 900k is big for Wii U.
Indeed, both consoles with a better line up have Sold less than The years before, even with much difference numbers.
Like i Said, i believe PS4 will Sell more next year, but i replied The part about "PS4 should sell at least 1.5 million next year", because if You say so, You probabily predict More? Maybe 1.6-1.7 million? Which shoild be too Close with The 2009 of PS3, imo.
I believe The PS4 will have a bigger Holidays in 2016, for ob ius reason.
But in The rest of The year, i Can see PS4 down YOY.
The firsts 3 months were pretty strong... Over 30k, and some times Over 45k.
Even if PS4 has Persona and SFV, i don't think will Sell that much.
And in The Second half of The year there is The BloodBorne Promotion... Another important Fact of This year, which boost PS4 to 18-20k basis for some weeks.
And, The last, MGS V and The pricedrop which boosted PS4 to 50k and 40k.
So, with those boost and basis in 2015, i don't think PS4 will Sell much More in 2016, even with Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy.
I most definitely do, if those two release in the same year on top of everything else.
Moor-Angol
Banned
12 months ago do we know about BloodBorne bundle or price drop?
no, so how do know that 2016 sales will be lower than 2015 ?
Q1 2016 is pretty strong as it was last year, but there are many variables we actually don't know: new bundles? new colours? new model? Q3 and Q4 line-up? Playstation VR ?
1.3m is likely This year.
1.5m mean 200k More. Which is, in my opinion, not much More, but a well increase.
I can see 1.5 Million like i Said.
I don't think will happen, but is definitively possible.
But Over This, well, seem bery unlucky. So yeah, i really can't See some like 1.6 - 1.7 million.
But like i Said, lets see.
I feel the PS4's biggest problem will be audience overlap.
The people who want Final Fantasy XV, the PS4 version of Persona 5, and the PS4 version of Dragon Quest XI could be from a decidedly similar pool (or subset of the same pool).
KillerMan91
Member
Well PS3 still pulled around 1.35 million during its sixth year in the market with largely same games that it had gotten every year. Not to mention that the installbase of PS4 is still so small that I don't see much overlapping yet.
I feel to some extent there's X number of people to whom a platform would appeal to, but they currently don't have the money, living situation, or are simply not old enough to buy it yet, and that this is what sustains numbers late in the generation.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 3DS has went down every year this generation after peaking in the second despite getting some very significant releases, no?
Edit:
By Media Create:
2011: 4,282,143
2012: 5,497,737
2013: 4,882,040
2014: 3,176,525
2015: Unclear, but definitely lower.
I see some potential wiggle room above why Ryng is projecting, but I don't think his reservations are unreasonable.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 3DS has went down every year this generation after peaking in the second despite getting some very significant releases, no?
Edit:
By Media Create:
2011: 4,282,143
2012: 5,497,737
2013: 4,882,040
2014: 3,176,525
2015: Unclear, but definitely lower.
I see some potential wiggle room above why Ryng is projecting, but I don't think his reservations are unreasonable.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I have to agree with Ryng and Nirolak. Just like with the 3DS I feel like the console has start to appeal to demographics completely not served by the PS4 before for its console base to grow significantly in any particular year. The question is how many people are waiting for that next big title (lot of which are RPGs to be fair), and then what other demographics are left to bring in? If there's a lot of folks, then maybe it could work out better than expected.