Principate
Saint Titanfall
On a far lower install base and included digital I'd say t's done all right certainly not underperformed.
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Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2013 (Dec 02 - Dec 08)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
On a far lower install base and included digital I'd say t's done all right certainly not underperformed.
spatenfloot
Member
I think they need more exclamation points to be successful.
Magicpaint
Member
Moving goal post. Now you have to use that qualifier to suggest it has underperformed. Okay.
airmangataosenai
Member
If I ever have said that the game would actually underperform as in sell poorly then that was idiotic, but I don't think I've ever said it would do outright bad, just that it would decline from 3rd. I think I predicted Week 1 sales (Mistakenly thinking they were MC predictions and not Famitsu) at 1.5 Million? Obviously that's not a bomba number so I don't think that's moving goalposts.
And the last time we talked about this before the game launched I agreed: They would surpass that sales goal and if they only managed that then it would mark one of the sharpest declines from one iteration to another ever. Capcom always low balls Monster Hunter predictions and always surpass them. Again, even the Wii version met it's sales goal in Japan..... by shipping it's initial stock.
Magicpaint
Member
Chris and sörine have already provided good arguments for why the game hasn't, in fact underperformed according to Capcom's expectations but since doing better P3rd (the highest selling 3rd party title in Japan) numbers seems to be the ultimate goal in your book where do you think MH4 would have achieved that, if not on the 3DS? PSP? Vita? Mobile? ...PS3?
Earthpainting
Member
Considering it both exceeded Capcom's expectations by quite a bit, and isn't trailing too far behind the series' best selling entry on a system with a much lower install base, I'd say it performed pretty well. Since it also has a shot of getting localised, it even has a decent chance at beating the Portable 3rd sales. I doubt they're displeased either way.
multiplat.
airmangataosenai
Member
Having a 3DS version obviously makes good sense for Capcom. Whether or not they could've sold significantly more by making the game multiplatform is something we can speculate on but can never know for sure. I think it probably would've done comparably to or even better than 3rd had there been a PSP version as well but obviously you disagree.
I think whether or not tracking behind in a previous game in a serious is exceeding expectations. Really don't think anyone can win because 'expectations' is kinda vague.
Hellraider
Member
People who believe MH4 underperformed will continue to believe so until it sells exactly 5m.
anyone know offhand what the last portable non-f2p 3rd party game to push 5 million is?
airmangataosenai
Member
There aren't any, at least not at retail only. I don't even know what the conversation is about anymore. I think some of the people on this page are working under the assumption that I'm port begging.
metalslimer
Member
This is a straight up lie/fabrication as Capcom had to lower their target on the Wii game. Don't even compare the two.
Edit: Sorry this came off harsher sounding than I intended.
Thats an estimate.
And I dont think all retailers are counted for those numbers.
Those numbers are also reflecting a significant increase in sales.
So what happens if WiiU has the same type of percentage increase that it did from
October to November?
metalslimer
Member
Magicpaint
Member
I think raw total install base isn't even as much a factor as, say, Monster Hunter specific userbase. People often overloook the fact that there were several MH titles leading up to MHP3rd, including a 4 million selling entry. MH4 only succeeds MH3G (2m). This is also imo why Pokemon X/Y is tracking behind Pokemon B/W.
'Obviously makes good sense' in hindsight. You argued the opposite leading to its release.
Also I wouldn't be so sure about a PSP version but you're right in that we'll never know. GE2 (which even has cross play compatibility which would be an issue w/ a hypothetical 3DS+PSP MH4) doesn't seem to be benefiting that greatly from a multiplatform approach if we're to use GE1 as the benchmark. And I honestly can't think of any real examples where a multiplatform strategy has been hugely beneficial in the Japanese market. This isn't the Western market where the development budgets basically demand a multiplatform strategy, and where the extra sales are worth the added costs that come with having another platform in consideration during development.
opticalmace
Member
Magicpaint
Member
Dat Nintendo Christmas bump.
airmangataosenai
Member
It's fine, I know how hyperbole can be on the forums.
I don't think Capcom ever actually set a normal public prediction for the Japanese sales in their annual reports the year before the way they do for most other titles. I've been looking through old ones and haven't found one yet. All I remember is when they announced the 1 million sold and highlighting Tri as one of their more successful titles for the year in their annual report.
Actually God Eater is a good example of how a game can benefit even if one version sells drastically better than the other. You're acing as if the PSP sales for that game are so miniscule that they don't effect the overall results but they did and pushed it notably higher, and was easily worth the port. The game will easily do 200k or more. Moreover, sales between the two versions in recent weeks have almost reached parity. I don't know for sure whether it's tracking ahead of the first God Eater still, but didn't it have the highest debut in the series?
Cygnus X-1
Member
I think it could come close in Japan but the inevitable western release pretty much guarantees it.
Hopefully, both failures will light a fire under Sony & Nintendo respectively.
thestopsign
Member
The only good thing about the NPD performance was that Michael Pachter still sucks at predicting.
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
For how long has the lake been dried out? Maybe there's still some rotten fish to be found in Wii U's NPD performance
.KillerMan91
Member
Not to mention that nowadays the jump from November to December is usually rather small (in US). Some consoles have actually sold more in November than in December (PS3 last year).
Magicpaint
Member
No, the PSP sales are essential since the Vita userbase is one of constraint for a 600k+ seller like God Eater. What I mean is that the multiplatform strategy doesn't seem to be of any significant benefit to the series in general. The sales are good, but they're flat, suggesting it's still the same people buying it, just more of them on Vita. It's not a good argument for the multiplatform strategy unless the lead platform is one with a limited userbase.
The interesting point about the MH4 performance is that it happens at a time when similarly well performing franchises are also catering to the active base on the same platform.
At this point, we can pretty much say that the sales of the absolute blockbusters on 3DS are split into three. That's one major difference with the context of 3rd.
Naw, the only metric would be ROI. They would sold more with a multiplat release if for no other reason than Vita isn't region locked.
However I have no clue if they have the manpower or the tech skill to pull it off. If they don't then yeah, 1 platform is the only option.
&, that is assuming everything else being equal. A nice deal with nintendo would have been very attractive compared to any potential sales on the nicheiest of niche platforms.
The problem here being One Piece, Attack on Titan or Gaist Crusher are targeting a different general audience than God Eater or Phantasy Star would. It'd be interesting to see how the latter sort of titles would perform on 3DS with the genre king and if they could maintain PSP level sales single platform or not.
I really want DQVIII mobile to flop.
Becasue it's awful. The vertical stance made me want to throw my phone at the wall. Not to mention it lagged like hell on some parts.
Not saying the estimate is not fair, just pointing out its an estimate.
Im also pointing out that the number is based on large upswing in sales.
That's positive momentum that could be sustained by the next three games
coming out early 2014. In other words, a turnaround could be happening.
Also, I dont think Nintendo sees these sales like everyone else.
I think Nintendo is a company structured on selling consoles between 20 to 50 mill
on average. This is why they are very conservative.
If a console sells like the Wii, its an anomaly.
As dire as everyone is making out the numbers, Im sure Nintendo is already making profit.
Aquamarine
Member
1) That's not an estimate (implying that the real NPD figure could be 200K-300K). We know, for a fact, that Wii U sold ~223K in the USA in November 2013. There's a reason why that 220K figure is in the OP.
2) A 342% increase is standard with Black Friday gains...remember, Nintendo has deals with retailers for incredible Black Friday deals...and Nintendo has invested a significant amount of money for USA November marketing. It was a given that the Wii U would have an increase in accordance with this.
3) NPD tracks (receives precise sales numbers from) every major USA retailer (both online retailers like Amazon and physical retailers like GameStop), totaling 90-95% of the video game market. Then, they estimate the remaining 5-10% to come to an extraordinarily accurate view of the current hardware market.
4) I know for a fact that Nintendo looks at NPD numbers very closely. That 223K number is what Nintendo is using as a gauge of the Wii U's health in the North American market. Nintendo doesn't operate under percentage increases, because a 342% increase of horrible sales...is still horrible sales. They're looking at total marketshare, software sales attach rate, historical marketshare, etc. The fact that 223K is way below the November sales of Nintendo's previous consoles (in their prime) demonstrates serious problems with the console.
5) Typical November gains in the USA market doesn't imply similar gains in December. It's very probable that Wii U will only manage gains up to 270K next month. Considering its health, I think it will be very unlikely for the console to undergo a 342% increase next month...but even if it does, you have to look at the console's position in the total market.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
who is that?
:lol
Nightstick11
Banned
It's fascinating. It's like when Jimmy and Timmy fought on South Park.
Capcom is using Monster Hunter 4's gains to fund a new mobile studio. That's the worst business decision they could've made.
So, he was right. He is very good in predictions.
Well this should be an interesting backpedal. I wonder what new definition of "significant chunk" we will see,
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Why are we talking about NPD sales in the media create thread? The NPD thread is still active after all.
Any news on Puzzles & Dragons, etc.? Also does anyone have numbers for typical Nintendo non-Wii Decembers (GC & N64)? Thanks.
Any news on Puzzles & Dragons, etc.? Also does anyone have numbers for typical Nintendo non-Wii Decembers (GC & N64)? Thanks.