You also forgot about Namco .There aren't many big guys that still want to sell in the west though. I mean, you've got Square and Capcom. Sega with Atlus. From will do their thing. That's pretty much it.
You also forgot about Namco .There aren't many big guys that still want to sell in the west though. I mean, you've got Square and Capcom. Sega with Atlus. From will do their thing. That's pretty much it.
443k is amazing PLUS it was released in the middle of the week on the 6th, which means a lot of sales will be pulled in next week as well.
You also forgot about Namco .
It was released on Thursday? First time this happens.
It won't have the legs of first remake.
Big AAA games from 4/5 Japanese studios will not make the PS4 sell PS3 numbers (which i guess is sort of the bar for success I'm setting.) Middleware will likely sell better on Smartphones or Handhelds.
But yeah the type of bar I'm setting is the same one that leads people to reasonably call the 3DS a success dispite it getting less sales than the DS. Maybe a shaving of some sales but not the end of the world like Wii to Wii U was.
While 3DS is selling less than the most successful videogame system in Japan (NDS) it is actually on track to outsell the PS2.
I think it could reach a million. We'll see. I've heard that they have changed a bit more in DQM2 compared to Terry's Wonderland.
Success isn't defined only from hardware. PS and PS2 sold half the hardware but more software. PSP is as much successful as PS and PS2 with that metric.
Not even close.
Whoa wait, what? I haven't been keeping up w these threads but is this the consensus? I figured ~400k opening, is that out of the question?
I see thanks . It's a question of "when" not "if".It will do well out of the gate and sales will dwindle till some games are released. Its a big problem though because unlike WiiU which has the question of are third parties going to come, PS4 raises the question of when are third parties going to come?
It's also a question of "how much". I don't expect PS4 to buck the general industry trend and garner more software support than it's predecessor when 3DS, Wii U and Vita all can't. It probably won't be a PS2 to PS3 level drop off either though.It will do well out of the gate and sales will dwindle till some games are released. Its a big problem though because unlike WiiU which has the question of are third parties going to come, PS4 raises the question of when are third parties going to come?
This probably means zero, but yesterday's ND put Mario Kart 8 on the top of Amazon's chart right now.
This probably means zero, but yesterday's ND put Mario Kart 8 on the top of Amazon's chart right now.
Now that's something.That's good but it's top 10 in the UK. THE UK!! TOP 10! A Wii U Game!
Mario Kart 8 is no. 1 on amazon jp since the ND and now the price is also reduced to ¥ 5,232. It's quite an interesting performance in the week preceding PS4's launch. The game is still more than 3 months away.
Mario Kart 8 is no. 1 on amazon jp since the ND and now the price is also reduced to ¥ 5,232. It's quite an interesting performance in the week preceding PS4's launch. The game is still more than 3 months away.
How long/how far out from release does a "big" game usually get to number 1 and stay there?
Or is it solely because the direct and it will go down in ranking before returning to number 1 before release.
Mario Kart 8 preorders opened after ND and it has a typical 15% discount. So much excitement for nothing.
Honestly, just don't look to Amazon for any sort of an indication of how the game is doing. It's been proven to be pretty misleading in the past.How long/how far out from release does a "big" game usually get to number 1 and stay there?
Or is it solely because the direct and it will go down in ranking before returning to number 1 before release.
LTD sales targets from publishers
[PS3] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) (¥8.600) - 350k
[PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) (¥8.600) - 150k
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=4534865201./00. [PS3] Yakuza 5 # <ADV> (Sega) {2012.12.06} (¥8.800) - 356.757 / NEW <65,80%>
Those look like pretty realistic targets I think except maybe the Koei stuff and COD?Mario Kart 8 preorders opened after ND and it has a typical 15% discount. So much excitement for nothing.
LTD sales targets from publishers
[PS3] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) (¥8.600) - 350k
[PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) (¥8.600) - 150k
[PS4] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥8.190) - 150k
[PS4] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Dubbed Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) (¥7.980) - 100k
[PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥7.245) - 70k
[PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Creation <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥9.240) - 50k
[PS4] Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥4.800) - 30k
[PS4] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥8.820) - 30k
[PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665) - 30k
[PS4] NBA 2K14 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥6.090) - 20k
[PS4] FIFA 14 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665) - 15k
[PS4] Need for Speed: ​​Rivals <RCE> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665) - 10k
LTD means total sales, if I'm not mistaken.By LTD, do you mean total sales or just first week sales? For comparison, here's Yakuza 5's first week. Also, I think they're missing an opportunity to inflate the price of the PS4 version of the game.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=45348652
+---------+-----------+-------+---------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------+--------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Order | Last week | Model | Title name | Manufacturer | Release Date | Estimated | Total |
+---------+-----------+-------+---------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------+--------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| | | | | | | number of sales | number of sales |
| One | - | 3DS | The key to a strange mysterious and Luke 2-yl Dragon Quest Monsters | Square Enix | 14/02/06 | 444,719 | 444,719 |
| Two | - | 3DS | Puyo Tetris | SEGA | 14/02/06 | 44,356 | 44,356 |
| Three | One | PS3 | Mobile Suit Gundam EXTREME VS. FULL BOOST | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 14/01/30 | 30,774 | 323,503 |
| Four | Three | 3DS | Kirby Triple Deluxe star | Nintendo | 14/01/11 | 24,765 | 424,321 |
| Five | Eight | 3DS | Yokai Watch | LEVEL-5 | 13/07/11 | 24,181 | 367,970 |
| Six | Seven | 3DS | Pazudora Z | Gung Ho Online Entertainment | 13/12/12 | 17,406 | 1,315,540 |
| Seven | - | Vita | Teraria | Spike CHUNSOFT | 14/02/06 | 15,506 | 15,506 |
| Eight | - | Vita | Super heroine Senki (superheroine Chronicle) | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 14/02/06 | 14,200 | 14,200 |
| Nine | Four | PS3 | Sengoku BASARA4 | Capcom | 14/01/23 | 12,261 | 213,267 |
| Ten | Two | PS3 | Diablo III | Square Enix | 14/01/30 | 11,383 | 53,602 |
| Eleven | - | PS3 | Puyo Tetris | SEGA | 14/02/06 | 10,061 | 10,061 |
| Twelve | - | Vita | Puyo Tetris | SEGA | 14/02/06 | 9,761 | 9,761 |
| 13 | - | PS3 | Super heroine Senki (superheroine Chronicle) | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 14/02/06 | 8,535 | 8,535 |
| 14 | Ten | 3DS | Tsubasa giant of humanity - the end of the march | Spike CHUNSOFT | 13/12/05 | 7,088 | 234,081 |
| Fifteen | Sixteen | 3DS | Monster Hunter 4 | Capcom | 13/09/14 | 6,187 | 3,289,276 |
| Sixteen | 19 | Wii U | Wii Party U | Nintendo | 13/10/31 | 5,982 | 606,917 |
| 17 | Five | Vita | Disgaea 4 Return | Nippon Ichi Software | 14/01/30 | 5,943 | 37,480 |
| 18 | 13 | 3DS | Tri-Force 2 The Legend of Zelda: Gods | Nintendo | 13/12/26 | 5,806 | 358,061 |
| 19 | 14 | 3DS | Survival battle with Shinobu in combat legend! | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 13/10/17 | 5,713 | 285,499 |
| Twenty | 17 | 3DS | Pokemon X | Pokemon | 13/10/12 | 5,475 | 2,123,989 |
| 21 | Eleven | PS3 | Saints Row IV Ultra Super Ultimate Deluxe Edition | Spike CHUNSOFT | 14/01/23 | 5,388 | 51,681 |
| 22 | Twenty | Wii U | New Super Mario Bros. U | Nintendo | 12/12/2008 | 5,145 | 1,028,191 |
| 23 | 18 | Wii U | Super Mario 3D World | Nintendo | 13/11/21 | 5,139 | 469,984 |
| 24 | - | Wii U | Puyo Tetris | SEGA | 14/02/06 | 5,083 | 5,083 |
| 25 | 22 | 3DS | Pokemon Y | Pokemon | 13/10/12 | 4,644 | 1,921,386 |
| 26 | 25 | PS3 | Grand Theft Auto V | Rockstar Games | 13/10/10 | 4,222 | 621,024 |
| 27 | 24 | 3DS | Animal Crossing Tobidase | Nintendo | 12/11/2008 | 4,153 | 3,589,042 |
| 28 | Six | Vita | Ebikore + Amagami | Kadokawa Games | 14/01/30 | 3,715 | 31,355 |
| 29 | Fifteen | PS3 | Dragon Ball Z BATTLE OF Z | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 14/01/23 | 3,389 | 43,539 |
| Thirty | 27 | Wii U | Wii Fit U | Nintendo | 14/02/01 | 2,885 | 100,530 |
| 31 | 23 | PS3 | Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remastered | Square Enix | 13/12/26 | 2,822 | 283,062 |
| 32 | Nine | 3DS | Toshin city | Image epoch | 14/01/30 | 2,767 | 23,640 |
| 33 | 21 | Vita | Dragon Ball Z BATTLE OF Z | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 14/01/23 | 2,720 | 30,438 |
| 34 | - | PS3 | Monster Hunter Frontier G Memorial package | Capcom | 14/02/05 | 2,710 | 2,710 |
| 35 | 29 | 3DS | Tomodachi Collection new life | Nintendo | 13/04/18 | 2,644 | 1,645,748 |
| 36 | 26 | Vita | Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster Twin Pack | Square Enix | 13/12/26 | 2,526 | 227,301 |
| 37 | 36 | 3DS | Mario Kart 7 | Nintendo | 11/12/2001 | 2,500 | 2,209,957 |
| 38 | 33 | PS3 | Battlefield 4 | Electronic Arts | 13/11/07 | 2,417 | 209,986 |
| 39 | 34 | 3DS | Hatsune Miku Project mirai 2 | SEGA | 13/11/28 | 2,407 | 189,236 |
| Forty | 32 | PS3 | World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014 | KONAMI | 13/11/14 | 2,406 | 295,601 |
| 41 | Thirty | 3DS | Disney Magic Castle My Happy Life | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 13/08/01 | 2,320 | 481,884 |
| 42 | 31 | PS3 | Gran Turismo 6 | SCE | 13/12/05 | 2,133 | 342,137 |
| 43 | 39 | 3DS | New Super Mario Bros. 2 | Nintendo | 12/7/2028 | 2,086 | 2,149,829 |
| 44 | Twelve | PSP | Shinobi, love Utsutsu | Idea Factory | 14/01/30 | 1,990 | 12,290 |
| 45 | 37 | Vita | God Eater 2 | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 13/11/14 | 1,789 | 385,865 |
| 46 | 47 | 3DS | Super Mario 3D Land | Nintendo | 11/11/2003 | 1,707 | 1,962,533 |
| 47 | 44 | 3DS | Aikatsu! My Princess two | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 13/11/21 | 1,688 | 200,359 |
| 48 | 46 | 3DS | One Piece Unlimited World Red | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 13/11/21 | 1,573 | 219,523 |
| 49 | 42 | Vita | Shin Gundam Musou | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 13/12/19 | 1,520 | 104,235 |
| Fifty | 48 | Wii U | ~ John if master Taiko Wii U! | NAMCO BANDAI Games | 13/11/21 | 1,345 | 114,504 |
+---------+-----------+-------+---------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------+--------------+-----------------+-----------------+
+-------+-----------+-----------+------------+---------+
| Model | This Week | Week (%) | FY 2013 | FY (%) |
+-------+-----------+-----------+------------+---------+
| PS3 | 135,056 | 14.50% | 10,290,804 | 24.50% |
| Vita | 76,585 | 8.20% | 3,256,815 | 7.70% |
| PSP | 21,089 | 2.30% | 3,023,203 | 7.20% |
| Wii U | 33,094 | 3.50% | 2,680,747 | 6.40% |
| Wii | 6,857 | 0.70% | 940,690 | 2.20% |
| 3DS | 655,583 | 70.20% | 21,181,069 | 50.40% |
| DS | 2,072 | 0.20% | 326,313 | 0.80% |
| X360 | 3,957 | 0.40% | 336,206 | 0.80% |
+-------+-----------+-----------+------------+---------+
| Total | 934,293 | 100.00% | 42,035,847 | 100.00% |
+-------+-----------+-----------+------------+---------+
+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------+
| Model | This Week | Week (%) | FY 2013 | FY (%) |
+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------+
| PS3 | 10,004 | 11.80% | 619,599 | 9.30% |
| Vita | 15,849 | 18.60% | 931,665 | 13.90% |
| PS Vita TV | 874 | 1.00% | 76,191 | 1.10% |
| PSP | 2,611 | 3.10% | 244,516 | 3.70% |
| Wii U | 6,900 | 8.10% | 756,633 | 11.30% |
| Wii | 249 | 0.30% | 41,946 | 0.60% |
| 3DS LL | 36,795 | 43.30% | 2,820,542 | 42.20% |
| 3DS | 11,480 | 13.50% | 1,174,089 | 17.60% |
| X360 | 273 | 0.30% | 15,942 | 0.20% |
+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------+
| Total | 85,035 | 100.00% | 6,681,123 | 100.00% |
+------------+-----------+-----------+-----------+---------+
By LTD, do you mean total sales or just first week sales? For comparison, here's Yakuza 5's first week. Also, I think they're missing an opportunity to inflate the price of the PS4 version of the game.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=45348652
LTD means total sales, if I'm not mistaken.
It's a retrospective term. So I dunno.LTD means total sales, if I'm not mistaken.
Mario Kart 8 preorders opened after ND and it has a typical 15% discount. So much excitement for nothing.
LTD sales targets from publishers
[PS3] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) (¥8.600) - 350k
[PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) (¥8.600) - 150k
[PS4] Dynasty Warriors 8 with Xtreme Legends <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥8.190) - 150k
[PS4] Call of Duty: Ghosts - Dubbed Edition <ACT> (Square Enix) (¥7.980) - 100k
[PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥7.245) - 70k
[PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Creation <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) (¥9.240) - 50k
[PS4] Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥4.800) - 30k
[PS4] Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag <ACT> (Ubisoft) (¥8.820) - 30k
[PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665) - 30k
[PS4] NBA 2K14 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥6.090) - 20k
[PS4] FIFA 14 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665) - 15k
[PS4] Need for Speed: ​​Rivals <RCE> (Electronic Arts) (¥7.665) - 10k
Digital sales and indie games will save ps4!Yakuza and DW8 (ahaha) are expected to be top PS4 sellers with 150k. This put opening week at 100k maximum for Yakuza based on these estimates. Unless people buy PS4 without software I wouldn't expect big things for hardware after launch.
Any particular reason why? Launch numbers are sure to be good, but the 3DS, Vita, and Wii U all exceeded the PS3's launch numbers. Then they all fell to or below its level.
I wouldn't be surprised if the PS4 collapses also after two months or so and stays low until the support appears.
There's always the promise of FFXV and KH3 (and MGSV) on the way, much in the same way it was for PS3 with FFXIII and MGS4. I'm not saying that'd get the console selling, but it's a thing to consider.Less competition doesn't automatically mean there will be more interest in PS4, and a lower price means little without the software to back it up.
200, 300 or 400k first week(end) sales of PS4 don't mean much. Sales one month later are the important are right now they are heading to be low.
We are one week away by the way.
PS4 is going to below 10k in less than 1.5 months. Now whether it stays there or goes to Wii U like last year number is another question. The PS4 being cheaper than the PS3 doesn't mean much at all except for maybe the launch week.
What? So you think PS4 is going to sell less than the ps3 is right now 1.5 months from launch? Yeah it doesn't have amazing software backing it up at launch in japan, but it didn't in the west either. It'll do fine for at least 3 months, though I do predict a drop off.
Price mainly but also less competition on the home console front. Also as you said, PS4 launch will largely outsell the PS3's pitiful 80k or so so it will already be ahead by several hundred thousands by the end of the launch period.
Isn't MGS:GZ launching almost 4 weeks after the Japanese launch? And Deep Down Beta (which was supposed to come launch) will probably come shortly after. Not saying the latter is a system seller, but it should keep things from getting anemic.3 months of fine sales without software eh? Make that 3 weeks.
Almost every PS4 release is a late port and the power of its launch games in Japan has nothing to do with the power of them in west.
And? Vita outsold PSP at launch.
We also had laughable WII - Wii U comparisons (even from the master of apologizing Iwata) in Japan since sales were intentical at first 3-4 weeks.
Things went really great for both systems after the supposed great launch.
Good times.We also had laughable WII - Wii U comparisons (even from the master of apologizing Iwata) in Japan since sales were intentical at first 3-4 weeks.
Wii U broke DragonSworne; I wonder if PS4 can achieve the same when it craters.Lol at people claiming Wii U numbers are okay or modest. These numbers are better than Wii, both hardware and software wise, crushes PS3 and vita numbers as well. Considering there is a Wii U shortage, these numbers a huge.
Japan is embracing Wii U as it's main console.
I expect the PS4 to do better than the PS3 even with its sub par lineup.
PS3 bombed pretty hard and third party eventually came, of all systems, the PS4's fate has got to be the easiest to predict, where else are big third party console games gonna go?How fast third party support comes depends on how much the PS4 bombs. It's a neverending cycle.
Good times.Wii U broke DragonSworne; I wonder if PS4 can achieve the same when it craters.
Less competition doesn't automatically mean there will be more interest in PS4, and a lower price means little without the software to back it up.
PS4 is going to below 10k in less than 1.5 months. Now whether it stays there or goes to Wii U like last year number is another question. The PS4 being cheaper than the PS3 doesn't mean much at all except for maybe the launch week.
Unrealistic expectations. All big Japanese franchises that are not on Nintendo consoles are weaker than ever (FF, MG) so I don't see how the ps4 will outdo the ps3, even considering ps3' initial price disadvantage.