This is entirely speculation, since we know so little about the game and it's so early, but my gut instinct is that expecting 200k from Ultimate Butouden is unreasonable. I think 150k is pretty possible, but not certain.
Dragon Ball Kai: The Final Chapter will be over by the time the game launches. Revival of F's theatrical run will have ended, or will be coming to an end shortly after. There won't be a direct promotional wave for the game to ride. Sure, I expect any new major characters/transformations from ROF to be in the game, but they'll have likely already been in Heroes, Zenkai Battle Royale, Dokkan Battle and/or Xenoverse by then. They won't be major selling points anymore.
Then you look at the last few handheld DBZ fighters and you'll find <100k sales. Some might argue that the DS was dead by the time UB came out and that's why I expect a rebound, but not +100k. The recent One Piece 2D fighter on 3DS hasn't done so hot either, though they're obviously different games and IPs. It did launch during the holiday season, which was both a positive and a negative (thanks to Smash).
On the bright side, ASW's Supersonic Warriors series did sell very well, but that was 10 years ago when most DB games sold large amounts in Japan ...
ASW makes sense if BN wanted someone with experience on the IP. BoZ wasn't huge and they likely couldn't downscale those assets to 3DS, so no Artdink. Spike Chunsoft has kind of wrecked their name with Dragon Ball fandom. Dimps is uber busy. Game Republic is dead. GameArts is Gungho's property now. Monolithsoft is also busy. That only leaves ASW for something substantial.
