Well, my "official" prediction was 310K. All the bases were covered.
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Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2014 (Feb 10 - Feb 16)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Well, my "official" prediction was 310K. All the bases were covered.
I predicted 403k, so I was about 80k off.
theprodigy
Member
you wanna compile the average for the official monthly competition and then come back?
edit: hey look Bravely Default snuck in at #50 in Media Create while FFXIII: LR isn't there :lol
edit2: and would you look at that, the average there was 338,780, all that overestimating
you in particular made that nice 450k prediction
DarkLordMalik
Member
These are pretty good sales. Does this mean the initial 350k estimated stock is sold out, right?
RedAssedApe
Banned
persona 4: platinumium
Not sure if it was already posted, but Media Create apparently believes Dragon Quest Monsters 2 might end up outselling Dragon Quest Monsters : Terry's Wonderland 3D. Their reasoning is : TW3D had some severe shortages post-launch, and provided DQM2 got ample supply, it could well start outselling TW3D in its 3rd week.
TW3D : 83,000 copies in week 2, 596,512 copies total.
Dragon Quest Monsters 2 : 118,000 copies for week 2, 562,083 copies sold.
Do we know when exactly TW3D got new shipment, back in 2012?
Well, I'm not 100% convinced, but let's see how it goes. I guess that not having any shortages might lead more people to buy the game (instead of buying used/not buying the game at all).
Source
TW3D : 83,000 copies in week 2, 596,512 copies total.
Dragon Quest Monsters 2 : 118,000 copies for week 2, 562,083 copies sold.
Do we know when exactly TW3D got new shipment, back in 2012?
Well, I'm not 100% convinced, but let's see how it goes. I guess that not having any shortages might lead more people to buy the game (instead of buying used/not buying the game at all).
Source
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Definitely need to get the next persona ported to PS4 at launch. Shouldn't be a difficult task, but this is SCEJ were talking about
DarkLordMalik
Member
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate should be a good bet, right?
Coming soon: Lighting Returns: The Ultimate Trilogy in Full HD 60 fps exclusively on the PS4.
michaelius
Banned
I hoped for more (before shipment was known) but at least we dodged the worst possible scenario.
theprodigy
Member
hmm...what are we looking at for PS4 week 2?
looking at Wii U/Vita week 2s, they're both harsh drops, but the Vita's was definitely worse
and it obviously isn't gonna follow the 3DS week 1-->week 2 trend, so that's out
looking at Wii U/Vita week 2s, they're both harsh drops, but the Vita's was definitely worse
and it obviously isn't gonna follow the 3DS week 1-->week 2 trend, so that's out
DarkLordMalik
Member
I expect a similar drop to VITA since software wise, the situation seems to be the same for both IMO.
test_account
XP-39C²
I was guessing 150k-200k for the PS4, so it sold upto more than double from what i expected. Not bad
True. I think that the console market will still excist in a good amount in Japan for the years to come regardless though.
We already had info that the PS4 shipment was max 350k and that it wasnt completely sold out everywhere. Based on this, i wonder what number that wouldnt be anticlimatic. It couldnt go much higher than 322k at least.
1st Course
Member
Will be interesting to see the effect of PS4 on Vita and Vita TV sales.
I was guessing 150k-200k for the PS4, so it sold upto more than double from what i expected. Not bad
True. I think that the console market will still excist in a good amount in Japan for the years to come regardless though.
We already had info that the PS4 shipment was max 350k and that it wasnt completely sold out everywhere. Based on this, i wonder what number that wouldnt be anticlimatic. It couldnt go much higher than 322k.
This is true, but pretty much any number over 300k would be anti-climactic with that shipment number. That doesn't stop it from being anti-climatic.
I'm putting my neck out on the line, as I did in the other thread, and predicting we'll see harsher %drop for the PS4 than we did for the Wii U and Vita on week 2. Only really because it's not a holiday, but it's my prediction none the less. I'm ready (and somewhat hoping) to eat crow though.
DarkLordMalik
Member
It might bump the VITA sales if Remote Play is something that the Japanese desire. Since they have got pretty good connection in Japan, and they usually travel a lot, maybe remote play will have more success there.
shinra-bansho
Member
That's not really putting one's neck on the line. It will be incredibly surprising if it holds anywhere near as well as those holiday launches.
EDIT: on further inspection there's a reasonably large disparity between the percentage drops of PSV (75%) and Wii U (58%) though. It could potentially be between them. Vita iirc launched in the biggest shopping week of the Japanese year, while Wii U launched a week before?
EDIT: on further inspection there's a reasonably large disparity between the percentage drops of PSV (75%) and Wii U (58%) though. It could potentially be between them. Vita iirc launched in the biggest shopping week of the Japanese year, while Wii U launched a week before?
Oh Hm. Well I think it'll be around the same as the Vita's drop, but a little more. Perhaps it's not putting one's neck on the line, but considering all the people lauding the PS4's launch, a drop harsher than the Vita would put things more into perspective.
1st Course
Member
I admit i was one of those who expected the PS4 to underperform. Mainly because i was basing my predictions on SW sales, but yeah like other people said it seems like people are buying the system atm based on its future potential rather than the current line-up.
Parakeetman
No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Real glad to see Dragon Quest Monsters 2 doing so well!
D
Deleted member 125677
Unconfirmed Member
322k is kind of impressive. From the impressions posted here, it didn't look too hot. So well done! Let's see if they can keep momentum the next month.
Oh, and this thread is going to be like the PAL thread for a while now, with Knack gifs everywhere, isn't it? *sigh*
Oh, and this thread is going to be like the PAL thread for a while now, with Knack gifs everywhere, isn't it? *sigh*
pieatorium
Member
320 is pretty decent start, should hold pretty decent next week imo
1st Course
Member
^
Depend on the stock.
Depend on the stock.
D
Deleted member 125677
Unconfirmed Member
lol, did you make that brag post when you yourself was 130k high?
lol, did you make that brag post when you yourself was 130k high?
So he makes a wall of shame and then he is wrong?
Selective memory, how does it work...
theprodigy
Member
lol, did you make that brag post when you yourself was 130k high?
you talking to me or Psycho_Mantis
Fixed.
Magicpaint
Member
Very very nice debut for PS4. Still, the following weeks would be far more telling I think, but this is a promising start.
michaelius
Banned
Hmm Natural Doctrine is coming to PS4,PS3 and PSV - will be interesting to see how sales split on that.
Solid PS4 launch. Now we can start counting the days until it's under 10k!
Hopefully Dengeki will give us their sell-through estimates. Recapitulating:
3DS: 374k / ~85% => ~440k
Vita: 318k / ~60% => ~530k
Wii U: 311k / ~85% => ~365k
Hmm... Do you know how to operate a microscope?
Hopefully Dengeki will give us their sell-through estimates. Recapitulating:
3DS: 374k / ~85% => ~440k
Vita: 318k / ~60% => ~530k
Wii U: 311k / ~85% => ~365k
Hmm... Do you know how to operate a microscope?
man i thought i was highballing it with 265.9k too.
I'm still surprised that none of the Japanese publishers invested (almost) anything into the PS4, you would think at least one of them would see the opportunity to sell on the platform that will lack software competition (as far as Japanese centric titles go). It's in their own interests to have PS4 sell well in Japan, if they are interested in console market. I guess they are just not that interested,
Canis lupus
Member
If you go back in this thread it's better than most people expected, predictions ranged from 100 to 250k.
I fear for the months after launch, I don't think any significant title has been announced for the Q3/Q4 periods.
I don't think there's a question about it. What would be interest to see how far can next-gen interest carry it.
Sony could definitely invest into some port-ups just to keep things rolling.
Sony needs to be proactive to attract developers and publishers for their platform. Otherwise they'll just keep chasing mobile money and ignore PS4 altogether.
D
Deleted member 125677
Unconfirmed Member
mantis of course
test_account
XP-39C²
If someone expected over 300k and knew that 350k was the highest number possible to achieve, that is true. But what would be concidered not anti-climax if the highest number could be around 350k? The way i see it, it could only be a lower number. And just for the record, i'm not saying that the guy who earlier mentioned the anti-climax was expecting a lower number. Its possible that not everyone saw the 350k max shipping number and expected more.
Yeah, i agree that the PS4 will sell less next week compared to what WiiU did, and maybe Vita too, but i'm more unsure about that. I think its a pretty safe bet to say that the PS4 wont sell somewhere around 122k next week like the WiiU did in its 2nd week
Personally, i'm expecting maybe somewhere around 60k - 90k for the PS4 next week because its not a holiday season, the interest will go down and maybe there can be some stock issues as well. But i think it will mostly be because of a non-holiday period and general lack of interest.[Nintendo Game Boy Advance] 611.504 (5 days)
[Nintendo DS] 441.485 (4 days)
[Sony PlayStation Portable] 166.074 (1 day)
[Nintendo 3DS] 371.326 (2 days)
[Sony PlayStation Vita] 321.407 (2 days)
I understand why they'd keep making games on the PS3, but if I were a mid-size publisher (Namco, SEGA, Tecmo, even Konami) I'd go to Sony and offer a PS4 version in exchange of some "help". I don't think they'll say no considering there aren't that much games to be offered.
IMO franchises like Yakuza, Tales of, PES, Dynasty / Samurai Warriors going cross-gen would help both the PS4 and the publisher in the long term. The former for obvious reasons, the later because building a fanbase in the new platform before going full exclusive will A) make less "violent" the transition between platforms, so sales on the old platform could be reached sooner and B) reach new users while there still is a drought.
michaelius
Banned
Seems like Japanise publishers are set on course to repeat exactly the same mistakes they did with PSP->PSV transition.
Many people that predicted for PS4 in this thread never entered a Media Create thread before.