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[shinra-bansho]

1.1M would be bad, but I think it's a realistic estimate. With software sparse, I can see it averaging near the 10K mark for most of the rest of the year.

It would present concern for A) the Japanese market, and B) Japanese-centric franchises that are best suited to home consoles.

It may not present a huge concern to the PS4 though (the more sales the better of course) assuming Western sales don't collapse in the same way.

 

[Frillen]

Famitsu Sales (Retail and Digital): January, 2014 (Jan 06 - Feb 02)

01. [3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe <ACT> (Nintendo) {2014.01.11} (¥4.800) - 418.335 (9.487) / 427.822
02. [PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam Extreme Vs. Full Boost # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.01.30} (¥7.980) - 266.297 (10.369) / 276.666
03. [PS3] Sengoku Basara 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.01.23} (¥6.990) - 191.323 (3.678) / 195.001
04. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 117.075 (2.639) / 119.714
05. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2013.12.12} (¥4.400) - 112.362 (4.240) / 116.602
06. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} (¥4.800) - 74.642 (3.296) / 77.938
07. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch <RPG> (Level 5) {2013.07.11} (¥4.800) - 72.145 (3.598) / 75.743
08. [3DS] Battle For Money Sentouchuu: Densetsu no Shinobi no Survival Battle! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.10.17} (¥4.980) - 50.550 (724) / 51.274
09. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.990) - 48.023 (2.846) / 50.869
10. [PS3] Saints Row IV <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2014.01.23} (¥5.980) - 48.650 (1.267) / 49.917
11. [PS3] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <RPG> (Square Enix) {2013.12.26} (¥7.140) - 44.176 (2.981) / 47.157
12. [WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.985) - 44.694 (1.158) / 45.852
13. [WIU] Wii Party U # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥4.935) - 44.502 (1.318) / 45.820
14. [PS3] Diablo III <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.01.30} (¥7.980) - 38.431 (5.473) / 43.904
15. [PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Z <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.01.23} (¥7.480) - 40.534 (1.786) / 42.320
16. [3DS] Attack on Titan: The Last Wings of Mankind <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) {2013.12.05} (¥6.090) - 38.691 (2.849) / 41.540
17. [PSV] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster: Twin Pack # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2013.12.26} (¥7.140) - 35.947 (3.616) / 39.563
18. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥5.985) - 37.459 (1.058) / 38.517
19. [PSV] Disgaea 4 Return <SLG> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2014.01.30} (¥6.729) - 29.904 (5.254) / 35.158
20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 28.225 (2.737) / 30.962
21. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2013.10.10} (¥7.770) - 29.159 (973) / 30.132
22. [PSV] Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Z <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.01.23} (¥6.480) - 26.813 (2.143) / 28.956
23. [PSV] Amagami (EBKore+) <SLG> (Kadokawa Games) {2014.01.30} (¥5.040) - 26.417 (2.014) / 28.431
24. [3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go Galaxy: Big Bang / Supernova <RPG> (Level 5) {2013.12.05} (¥5.500) - 25.828 (917) / 26.745
25. [PS3] Gran Turismo 6 # <RCE> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2013.12.05} (¥6.980) - 24.144 (895) / 25.039
26. [3DS] Toushin Toshi <RPG> (Image Epoch) {2014.01.30} (¥6.279) - 22.423 (1.261) / 23.684
27. [3DS] One Piece: Unlimited World Red # <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} (¥5.980) - 21.087 (702) / 21.789
28. [PS3] New Dynasty Warriors: Gundam <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.12.19} (¥7.980) - 18.278 (1.093) / 19.371
29. [3DS] Aikatsu! 2-nin no My Princess <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} (¥5.480) - 17.598 (523) / 18.121
30. [3DS] Disney Magic World # <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.08.01} (¥5.480) - 17.082 (906) / 17.988

Hopefully this will shut up the "buuuu but bu we don't know digital sales. It could have magically been downloaded 1 million times!"- guys. Then they come with their anecdotal evidences that all of their games are digital. Lol.

 

[Kid Ying]

Of course Japan publishers seem to not have learned from PSP->Vita transition mistakes so first 12-18 months will be relatively slow but dying sales of ps3 software in the west will force them to move.

To smartphones.

Ps4 will have its games, but people are trusting a little too much that everything will be there. Its not like the publishers need to release console games. Theres portables and smartphones if they want some quick bucks and the development is even cheaper.

 

[BlackLagoon]

This might be a dumb question, but have there been any Japanese developed 3rd party next gen exclusive games announced or released for ps4?

Released? i think there's that Dream Club "game" and a Mahjong one. Announced, well there's Deep Down, Lilly Bergamo and that Assault Suit Leynos remake. Also a bunch of non-specific "Gundam game", "Idolmaster game", "Earth Defense Force game" type announcements, and even more vague "we're working on a PS4 game" from various developers.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

That's a joke right ?

No major 3rd party game will be released on Wii U in Japan without getting incentives from Nintendo or being allowed to use one of Nintendo IPs.

People buying PS3 are natural customers for PS4 in which case it's only a matter of when not if.

Market trend sounds to me like someone is mistaking cause and effect. Current market trends are like this becouse PS3 had tons of problems.

Of course Japan publishers seem to not have learned from PSP->Vita transition mistakes so first 12-18 months will be relatively slow but dying sales of ps3 software in the west will force them to move.

Exactly. I expect the PS4 to have the same third party franchises as PS3, heck even more since there is no Wii.

 

[Kid Ying]

Exactly. I expect the PS4 to have the same third party franchises as PS3, heck even more since there is no Wii.

Because Wii had a lot of third party franchises? Wii had only a couple of big third party releases and they were all moneyhatted. The other games are family games and minigames and if they have no wii to release it, they would release on smartphones or the 3ds. Ps4 wouldnt be an option.

But i agree that the ps4 will have its franchises.

 

[sörine]

Exactly. I expect the PS4 to have the same third party franchises as PS3, heck even more since there is no Wii.

Wii U, Vita and even 3DS all are managing fewer Japanese 3rd party franchises than their predecessors. Why do you think PS4 will turn out differently? It hasn't at launch?

 

[Ty4on]

Wii U, Vita and even 3DS all are managing fewer Japanese 3rd party franchises than their predecessors. Why do you think PS4 will turn out differently? It hasn't at launch?

Probably because the PS3 was a big disappointment unlike the Wii, PSP and DS.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Wii U, Vita and even 3DS all are managing fewer Japanese 3rd party franchises than their predecessors. Why do you think PS4 will turn out differently? It hasn't at launch?

A better question would be what third party franchises from the PS3 era do you not see making their way to the PS4?

Because Wii had a lot of third party franchises? Wii had only a couple of big third party releases and they were all moneyhatted. The other games are family games and minigames and if they have no wii to release it, they would release on smartphones or the 3ds. Ps4 wouldnt be an option.

But i agree that the ps4 will have its franchises.

True.I guess I meant WiiU is no longer competing with the PS4 in getting third party support such as the next mainline Tales game for instance.

 

[L~A]

For those interested, here's the February Edition of my Leg-o-meter :

Puzzle & Dragons Z got some pretty crazy legs... Youkai Watch too, the anime is really killing it!

 

[Xis]

Hopefully this will shut up the "buuuu but bu we don't know digital sales. It could have magically been downloaded 1 million times!"- guys. Then they come with their anecdotal evidences that all of their games are digital. Lol.

Crunching the numbers:

Based on this sample, digital sales are anywhere from 1% to 15% of total sales. On average, digital sales are 4% of total sales.

By platform -
3DS - 3% of sales are digital, on average
PS3 - 4% of sales are digital, on average
PSV - 10% of sales are digital, on average
WIIU - 3% of sales are digital, on average

PSV not only has the highest average, it has the highest individual title (Disgaea 4, at 15%), and none of its (4) titles are below 7%. I know a some people have suggested that the PSV has higher digital sales than the other platforms; this data supports that claim. Sample size is too small to say anything definitively though.

I believe the high percentage for Animal Crossing (9%) was attributed to retail shortages? Any idea what caused Diablo III to skew so high (12%)?

 

[michaelius]

I believe the high percentage for Animal Crossing (9%) was attributed to retail shortages? Any idea what caused Diablo III to skew so high (12%)?

Games that can be played for months should have higher percentage on average since people are less likely to sell them and then digital is more convienient.

 

[metalslimer]

I don't think anyone's worrying about the next Tales, Yakuza, Metal Gear, Resident Evil, Souls, Final Fantasy, etc. skipping the PS4. It's the new IPs and everything else from Japan that is in question.

 

[BlackJace]

I wonder if XV is going to have a trilogy as well. Noctis Returns: Final Fantasy XV and all that shit.

I really do wonder how square will treat mainline entries going forward...

 

[SmokyDave]

Good to see Vita leading the pack in digital adoption.

Hopefully this will shut up the "buuuu but bu we don't know digital sales. It could have magically been downloaded 1 million times!"- guys. Then they come with their anecdotal evidences that all of their games are digital. Lol.

Yeah, that'll show those strawmen!

 

[Shengar]

I wonder if XV is going to have a trilogy as well. Noctis Returns: Final Fantasy XV and all that shit.

I really do wonder how square will treat mainline entries going forward...

Considering the cost for development, I reckoned they'll reuse assets as much as possible.

 

[Xis]

By platform -
3DS - 3% of January's sales were digital
PS3 - 4% of January's sales were digital
PSV - 10% of January's sales were digital
WIIU - 3% of January's sales were digital

I dug up last month's results, and they are similar:
3DS - 4% of December's sales were digital
PS3 - 3% of December's sales were digital
PSV - 11% of December's sales were digital (small sample, only 2 titles in top 30)
WIIU - 5% of December's sales were digital

 

[Mpl90]

Yes the lineup is worrying. I'm sure there are some announcements to be made.

Like I said before, what do you see the LTD of the PS4 at the end of this year that makes you worried so much?

Before PS4 launch, I was thinking about a 300k debut, and then going down till around 15k weekly, excluding Holidays. Something around...1.3 - 1.35 millions I think. Which wouldn't be that good, but would be enough to not scare some developers for the next future and to avoid some big titles could be actually delayed in Japan because the installed base is not enough for getting the potential sales (case in point: FFXIII on PS3). But, now, with the first indications coming from Comgnet for PS4's third week, the lineup staying awuful for next future, things could be worse, around the 1.1 millions estimated by others, if not worse. I hope Sony has something for Holidays, I don't want to see PS4 doing as awuful as Vita did back in late 2012...

 

[Mpl90]

I don't think anyone's worrying about the next Tales, Yakuza, Metal Gear, Resident Evil, Souls, Final Fantasy, etc. skipping the PS4. It's the new IPs and everything else from Japan that is in question.

Those games will surely come on PS4. As well as some titles from niche developers (like Falcom and NIS), which don't need huge installed base, but just the concentrated audience to be there. However, I'm wondering if some big titles that will come out from late-2015 will see a release on another console (i.e. next Nintendo handheld), in order to not being limited by possibly awful PS4 sales in Japan. Of course, in the case PS4 sells very, very bad in 2014 and mediocre/worse than that in 2015; otherwise, PS4 should be enough (speaking about Japan here; the West shouldn't be that problematic, not at all).

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

Hopefully this will shut up the "buuuu but bu we don't know digital sales. It could have magically been downloaded 1 million times!"- guys. Then they come with their anecdotal evidences that all of their games are digital. Lol.

in japan? sure. I have no idea why thy lag behind the west when it comes to digital stuff despite their infrastructure being better than ours.

 

[Dragon]

in japan? sure. I have no idea why thy lag behind the west when it comes to digital stuff despite their infrastructure being better than ours.

I'd say the used games and PC markets are probably the main reasons for that.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

I'd say the used games and PC markets are probably the main reasons for that.

Yeah buy i heard their netflix/spotify like services are lacking too, shit it just weird to me.

 

[RalchAC]

+ smartphones.

Yup. Forgot them.

That's a joke right ?

No major 3rd party game will be released on Wii U in Japan without getting incentives from Nintendo or being allowed to use one of Nintendo IPs.

People buying PS3 are natural customers for PS4 in which case it's only a matter of when not if.

Market trend sounds to me like someone is mistaking cause and effect. Current market trends are like this becouse PS3 had tons of problems.

Of course Japan publishers seem to not have learned from PSP->Vita transition mistakes so first 12-18 months will be relatively slow but dying sales of ps3 software in the west will force them to move.

Monster Hunter started as a PS2 (MH3 was on Wii) game and yet it found success on the PSP instead. The PS3 was not the only reason why the market changed to handhelds.

Can you bold what was the joke? I honestly thought what I said made sense.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Yokai Watch's ratings continue to go up, I imagine its weekly sales will follow too.
It's getting closer and closer to One Piece.

This could end up being Level 5's biggest hit ever.

Yodobashi almost out of stock and Amazon expects a new shipment on March 15.

 

[Fafalada]

Good to see Vita leading the pack in digital adoption.

IMO this says less about Vita userbase digital adoption and more on the fact that Vita simply has a superior Digital shopping experience to the other platforms.
If PS4 follows the pattern, it should do even better.

 

[Shengar]

in japan? sure. I have no idea why thy lag behind the west when it comes to digital stuff despite their infrastructure being better than ours.

Yeah buy i heard their netflix/spotify like services are lacking too, shit it just weird to me.

It's cultural thing I reckoned.

 

[QaaQer]

Released? i think there's that Dream Club "game" and a Mahjong one. Announced, well there's Deep Down, Lilly Bergamo and that Assault Suit Leynos remake. Also a bunch of non-specific "Gundam game", "Idolmaster game", "Earth Defense Force game" type announcements, and even more vague "we're working on a PS4 game" from various developers.

cheers.

 

[Chris1964]

I think it was Takao who said it frist, but the PS4 has to fight againt the WiiU, its own predecesor and unfavorable market trends. The Vita "only" had to fight against the 3DS and the PSP.

PS4 competitors are Mobile/3DS/PS3/Vita. Wii U will give a fight only in holidays.

edit: As I see it I don't expect the PS3->PS4 transition being easier than PS2->PS3 in Japan.

 

[Magicpaint]

Yodobashi almost out of stock and Amazon expects a new shipment on March 15.

The race between Yo-Kai watch and the first Layton begins.

 

[L~A]

PS4 competitors are Mobile/3DS/PS3/Vita. Wii U will give a fight only in holidays.

edit: As I see it I don't expect the PS3->PS4 transition being easier than PS2->PS3 in Japan.

Indeed, and the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. I mean, only 2 (or 3?) PS4 announcements since TGS from Japanese 3rd parties, PS3 games announced pretty much every week... Looks like transition won't be as quick as people are expecting.

You don't snap your finger, and bam! Here's your PS4 games. Lack of announcements is a big deal in short term (not so much in long terme), and short term problems lead to rough transition. It's certainly going to be a rather interesting year, for all consoles!

 

[Anth0ny]

I wonder if XV is going to have a trilogy as well. Noctis Returns: Final Fantasy XV and all that shit.

I really do wonder how square will treat mainline entries going forward...

Didn't Square say they wanted to do that kind of stuff (direct sequels like XIII-2 and LR) for their big AAA games more often going forward?

As long as XV is good, I'm okay with that.

 

[dolemite]

Are we expecting sub-20k numbers for PS4 this week or is the stock situation better now?

 

[Chris1964]

Are we expecting sub-20k numbers for PS4 this week or is the stock situation better now?

We'll have many stock situations for PS4 this year.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Week 10 30k
This week 18k

 

[Mpl90]

If Comgnet weekly chart is a good hint at what's going to happen hardware wise, we're going to have PS4 at 25-30k already.

 

[Chris1964]

PS3 first 15 weeks

81.639 / 81.639
42.099 / 123.738
32.662 / 156.400
31.436 / 187.836
50.171 / 238.007
70.942 / 308.949
76.882 / 385.831
71.727 / 457.558
69.944 / 527.501
25.531 / 553.032
21.105 / 574.137
19.996 / 594.133
18.727 / 612.860
23.431 / 636.291
20.676 / 656.967


PS4 first 2 weeks

309.154 / 309.154
65.685 / 374.839

 

[DaBoss]

I wonder if XV is going to have a trilogy as well. Noctis Returns: Final Fantasy XV and all that shit.

I really do wonder how square will treat mainline entries going forward...

Well they certainly shouldn't waste all of those assets. It isn't a time to spend millions of dollars just to create new assets for a new entry of a series for the same platform. I'm not saying make a XV series, but they should use the assets for something.

If Comgnet weekly chart is a good hint at what's going to happen hardware wise, we're going to have PS4 at 25-30k already.

I feel like you've been giving the Comgnet charts way too much credit recently since you're constantly mentioning it in the MC threads recently.

 

[Kandinsky]

Actually nvm I forgot about GZ.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I feel like you've been giving the Comgnet charts way too much credit recently since you're constantly mentioning it in the MC threads recently.

For the thread, I feel like it's time for one of my random reminders that Comgnet represents 16 stores in 1 Prefecture of Japan's 47 and should not be used to represent anything more than that.

 

[ambientmystic]

PS3 first 15 weeks

81.639 / 81.639
42.099 / 123.738
32.662 / 156.400
31.436 / 187.836
50.171 / 238.007
70.942 / 308.949
76.882 / 385.831

PS4 first 2 weeks

309.154 / 309.154
65.685 / 374.839

So the PS4 doesn't have to sell anything for the next 4 weeks and it'd still be ontrack to outsell the PS3 in Japan?

Looks promising lol.

/optimist

 

[DCharlie]

anecdotalwatch!

As of last night (monday)

Shinjuku :

Bic Camera - Sold out
Yodbashi - new basic pack in stock, everything else sold out
sofmap - sold out
labi - sold out

Aki :
Media lab : sold out
Sofmap : sold out
yodobashi : sold out

basically - shipments look low and constant - absolutely no idea about demand, though second hand units trading at slightly above retail might say something, but to honest - not a lot. People aren't rioting to get one as per the DS Lite.

 

[Shengar]

For the thread, I feel like it's time for one of my random reminders that Comgnet represents 16 stores in 1 Prefecture of Japan's 47 and should not be used to represent anything more than that.

Are there any retail stores chain that spread out in all perfectures of Japan? Or at least, more than 2 or 3.

 

[DCharlie]

yes, the big name stores are in pretty much all prefectures - here i'd suggest that the following are well represented (some regions may vary obviously as you become more rural) but ...

Bic Camera, Yodobashi, Tsutaya, Geo&#12288;- i'd expect each prefecture to have at least one. Maybe Sofmap as well i guess.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Are there any retail stores chain that spread out in all perfectures of Japan? Or at least, more than 2 or 3.

There's plenty that spread out over more than two or three, although off the top of my head I can only think of Geo, Yamada Denki, Tsutaya, and Aeon (More a department store than anything, though).

 

[Darius]

As of today. PS4 in stock in every Yodobashi store and its online.store.

http://www.yodobashi.com/ec/product/stock/100000001002152125/index.html

 

[Shengar]

yes, the big name stores are in pretty much all prefectures - here i'd suggest that the following are well represented (some regions may vary obviously as you become more rural) but ...

Bic Camera, Yodobashi, Tsutaya, Geo&#12288;- i'd expect each prefecture to have at least one. Maybe Sofmap as well i guess.

There's plenty that spread out over more than two or three, although off the top of my head I can only think of Geo, Yamada Denki, Tsutaya, and Aeon (More a department store than anything, though).

Interesting info, thanks! So from all the retail chain numbers we got, which one is the most representative?

 

[Mpl90]

Well they certainly shouldn't waste all of those assets. It isn't a time to spend millions of dollars just to create new assets for a new entry of a series for the same platform. I'm not saying make a XV series, but they should use the assets for something.

I feel like you've been giving the Comgnet charts way too much credit recently since you're constantly mentioning it in the MC threads recently.

The fact is that, last week, Comgnet's weekly chart, with Yakuza drop, hinted at last week hardware results (the drop was about 80%, which translated into a 83-85% drop in hardware sales), and this week's charts show another big drop (>50%), again; let's see if it's a good hint for hardware again...I'm not ruling out that it could be wrong on that front though, considering how Comgnet weekly charts can be inaccurate at times.

Spoiler

Probably, you're right...maybe recently I talked too much about Comgnet. But the preorder ones, when filtered correctly ( comparing titles with past iterations) can seriously give good indications. Weekly ones are much more variable, I know that. Still, you're not that wrong, I fear XD

 

[Moor-Angol]

If Comgnet weekly chart is a good hint at what's going to happen hardware wise, we're going to have PS4 at 25-30k already.

Tsutaya is a good weekly chart, not Comgnet

how can 14 shops be reliable for the entire nation-wide market ?


recently you have become too much obsessed over PS4 sales... stop it please

 

[DrWong]

Tsutaya is a good weekly chart, not Comgnet

how can 14 shops be reliable for the entire nation-wide market ?


recently you have become too much obsessed over PS4 sales... stop it please

? Most of the people here are "obsessed" with PS4 sales. I don't understand, sorry.

 

[DCharlie]

As of today. PS4 in stock in every Yodobashi store and its online.store

... i really think we need to stop relying on the site update - it's not accurate to what is happening in the stores.