If a 16% decline is 'large', why wouldn't a 13% price cut not be 'large'? It also doesn't need to convince hordes of people. They only need to convince another 10% or 20% of people. It also doesn't need to make a big impact on peoples thoughts. People on the fence, people 90% convinced but not quite. Price goes down and they cross the line of the buying decision. Just give them that 10% boost in motivation to get the system.
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NPD Sales Results for January 2014 [Up3: PS4/XB1 #1/#2 best selling; Poke/SM3DW/ALBW]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
If a 16% decline is 'large', why wouldn't a 13% price cut not be 'large'? It also doesn't need to convince hordes of people. They only need to convince another 10% or 20% of people. It also doesn't need to make a big impact on peoples thoughts. People on the fence, people 90% convinced but not quite. Price goes down and they cross the line of the buying decision. Just give them that 10% boost in motivation to get the system.
Adjusted for the calendar year:
Here:
1st month - September 1999 for Dreamcast
1st month - September 2012 for Wii U
Adjusted for how long the two consoles have been out:
Here:
1st month - September 1999 for Dreamcast
1st month - November 2012 for Wii U
I can't imagine the Wii U going beyond 3 years
Aquamarine
Member
Of course they have D&H...NPD just listed them under a different category and I forgot to mention them. They're added now.
Yes, NPD data is quite robust in that regard. There's a good reason why developers, publishers, and large retailers actively use its data when determining the size and health of the market.
That's why I find it silly when anyone ever doubts NPD numbers or makes claims about alleged "inaccuracy." NPD is as accurate as it gets with physical retail. As CosmicQueso said, there IS no other source for retail POS information.
I imagine that if GAF consistently got a very large data set (like they did back in the golden days), there would be no more posts begging for leaks and a much greater priority on closely analyzing and discussing its nuances.
When you have to work to get the bare minimum for USA sell-through, the post culture here tends to be reactionary towards the few scraps we do get and focused heavily on leakers / the act of leaking more information.
Or hell, even a Top 20 software with numbers and all the hardware sales upfront would go a long way.
Lol EA got so much love from ps3 owners last gen. That Titanfall deal was smart for MS, but I have no doubt it would have sold better on the PS4. I hope EA got a ludicrous amount of money from the deal, because otherwise they got screwed.
theprodigy
Member
that would be entertaining
we could get breakdowns of console sales AND games by state
inb4 "ha [insert console here] won in the BEST region!"
If the hardware numbers came out together that would probably make a big difference, even if it wasn't until page 50. Then the top 10 or maybe top SKU for each platform in one go. The dripfeed means there's an ongoing stream of speculation and confusion. In that sense I'd even prefer it if the people that were getting the numbers didn't post them immediately but waited until they had a group of numbers worth posting.
CosmicQueso
Member
Can't do this with NPD, but you can do it with data from Major Mass Retailer. When you do dig in, however, there's not a lot of significant difference within regions except for things like Hunting/Fishing games (the rust belt loves these).
The rest of the country is surprisingly similar in its purchasing tastes.
Dragonborn
Member
No, MS does not have Europe and Japan to fall back on. They don't have the first party pedigree to fall back on. Also, the PS3 outsold the 360 pretty much every year since it came out (how else do you think they were able to overcome the 8 million unit gap). The PS3 even had a bigger launch in the UK than the X1 and a bigger first January. The PS3 also happened to be coming off the best selling console of all time.
These are very, very different situations.
I did not expect the xbone falling off this quickly. Even though supply is larger than demand I thought that MS was shipping 100% of their production to the US since everywhere else they have already shipped enough for the next 6 months demand. This is a repeat of the Wii U, though I am sure that MS will open their wallets and throw money on advertising when Titanfall and Halo and the next CoD/BF hit. But if they cannot beat the PS4 in March/April when Titanfall goes head to head with Infamous (which should be a 5:1 SW sell ratio) then MS is in trouble.
I expect to see some MS statement like
"The Xbox one console was the number 1 best selling console on the moon."
I expect to see some MS statement like
"The Xbox one console was the number 1 best selling console on the moon."
pretty done
Member
Xbox One was the Number One best selling American made console and provided the most hours of fun of any console.
CosmicQueso
Member
Oh, nevermind.
Wow at this article title:
that's certainly a strong reaction to this month's numbers.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...corporations-xbox-one-looks-like-a-total.aspx
that's certainly a strong reaction to this month's numbers.
BoboBrazil
Member
Just like this month, more Xbox family and numbers of hours spent crap. Price drop will happen probably in April if Titanfall doesn't move units. I will say Titanfall will probably outsell Infamous if we are doing a direct PS4 vs. X1 comparison in North America as MS will flood the market with advertising. Sony's marketing of games has usually been pretty poor in regards to commercials and things like that for games. When Sony becomes more profitable they can probably afford to do more in that regard. If Infamous outsells Titanfall the meltdowns will be funny though.
BoboBrazil
Member
Front page of yahoo.com too. MS can't hide from NPD numbers.
I think that's basically what NPD said they'd provide back in Nov-2006. C'est la vie.
Majmun
Member
That's pretty harsh, yikes
Imperfected
Member
I think it's a difference in philosophy, mostly.
First-party Sony games are actually supposed to be revenue generators in and of themselves, in addition to making the platform more attractive. They aren't really in the business of spending more advertising a game than they stand to make back off sales of the game.
Microsoft's third-party exclusive deals are, Halo aside, pretty much entirely sunk cost deals. Such deals are always going to be be loss leaders, so they're more inclined to bite the bullet and drop an advertising budget on the project that they have no real chance of recouping, because they weren't ever in it to turn a profit to begin with.
Nintendo's obviously the strong counter example: their profit margin is so strongly tied to software sales that they simply can't over-advertise first-party games and still remain profitable as a business, where Microsoft will never actually see (direct) profit off third-party exclusives, so they're more inclined to overspend; Sony sits somewhere in the middle ground, generally keeping an eye to profits but sometimes allowing projects to become loss leaders for the sake of moving systems.
That's my take, anyway.
Aquamarine
Member
If a 141K Xbox One is a total failure, then what does that make the Wii U's 57K first January?
theprodigy
Member
super ultra mega bomba, of course!
SwiftDeath
Member
Typing Xbox into google news came up with quite a few headlines about how Sony outsold them 2:1. Sony no doubt appreciate the free advertising and it will give MS marketing department a bit of an uphill battle(which Wii U already suffers from). This headline stood out to me I guess because nytimes sounds so mainstream to me.
Two Game Consoles Battle for a Dubious Prize
Review: The Xbox One Versus the PlayStation 4
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/13/t...e-playstation-4.html?hpw&rref=technology&_r=0
Two Game Consoles Battle for a Dubious Prize
Review: The Xbox One Versus the PlayStation 4
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/13/t...e-playstation-4.html?hpw&rref=technology&_r=0
Discontinued earlier than planned.
But seriously it has to be remembered that XB1 has a strong focus on the US market whereas the Wii U is most successful in Japan I believe?
Then again, we must consider the Huge Nov/Dec for the XB1 too which were miles ahead of the Wii U.
If MS don't react then the XB1 will go the same way as the Wii U, but of course they will react, in some way, now we wait and see how they react and what that does.
SwiftDeath
Member
The difficulty going forward with the XB1 is that it's main sales last gen were in the US and UK. It looks like there's a very strong chance the PS4 will sweep up the UK considering current numbers there and with the possibility the US may fall strongly inline with the PS4, that has to be troubling. Previous discussion on it usually assumed that there would be close to a 1:1 ratio in the US or the XB1 having a slight lead between the PS4 and XB1 but if that's not the case, if the PS4 pulls ahead, I don't know what the future holds for the XB1
The good old days were not perfect, but you're not terribly far from what happened. Not just on GAF but elsewhere too. There's such a focus on just getting numbers now that the analysis has become second to that. Being in the dark doesn't particularly help us.
This, and the fact that a game like COD4 sold more on the (then overpriced) PS3 vs. PC makes me wonder what the hell happened to the hardware upgrade cycle between 2004 and 2007.That's really crazy.
And_Gignac
Member
That article is using VgBANNED as a source, lol.
Yep.
Good god time passed in a flash.
They said many things back in the days.
The most shocking sales figures I think come from the UK, I spoke to few friends in retail and some of them claim they haven't seen an XB1 sold in weeks, the amazon.co.uk rankings are also dire:
For February, amazon.co.uk have received more Destiny (PS4) pre orders than XB1 sales:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#5
If I were at Microsoft that would worry me immensely.
The good news though is that Titanfall seems to be selling really well, but then again it's only 1 spot above the Ps4 version of GZ.
EDIT: Also using the 2014-02 section of the web url to get a year and month from Amazon also works on the US site, here is the link for February in US if anyone is curious:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
Of course replace the -02 with 01 for January or delete the -02 for the full year.
EDIT2:
For amazon.com:
January was
#3 PS4
#16 XB1
February is so far:
#1 PS4
#18 XB1
Try exercising your imagination a little more.
Majmun
Member
That's really crazy.
Crazy indeed. The Xbox sku's are doing the worst, but EA still partners up with MS for exclusives.
Makes me wonder how much it'll cost MS to keep the Titanfall franchise nextgen exclusive for X1.
I don't think anyone expects that anymore. With the software outlook for 2014 already being extremely dire, we better don't start to think about 2015.
MS has a huge problem with its XO price and Xbox Live service. I've seen it first hand where people are trading in their Xboxes for a ps3 and PS+. I think Sony hit the right chords with consumers regarding PS+. Games are expensive for a lot of people why not subscribe to a service that lets you play games as long you subscribe.
I think March NPD are going to be disappointing for MS. Titanfall will do well but it won't push a lot of Xbones being it's on the 360 and PC. MS might try and do a Gears and buy the franchise. It would be just like them to dump hundreds of million on a shooter franchise rather than investing in their own 1st party studios.
Refreshment.01
Member
Can eyes please get the traditional summary post with all the stimates?
Shinra, jvm or aqua XD
Shinra, jvm or aqua XD
SwiftDeath
Member
theprodigy
Member
huh
I sense a an update from Mpl90 on Bravely Default vs FFXIII: LR, so I'll snipe him
Bravely Default-5th
FFXIII: LR-9th (PS3), 59th (360)
Bravely Default-5th
FFXIII: LR-9th (PS3), 59th (360)
Aquamarine
Member
PS4: 271K
XB1: 141K
3DS: ~97K
PS3: ~53.5K
Wii U: 49K
360: ~48.5K
Vita: <17K
Wii: Somewhere less than 20K
DS: Dead
1) Call of Duty Ghosts: ~0.33 million
2) NBA 2K14
3) Battlefield 4: (somewhere less than 0.22 milllion)
4) Assassin's Creed IV: (somewhere less than 0.22 million)
5) Grand Theft Auto V: ~0.17 million
6) Madden NFL 25: ~0.15 million
7) Minecraft
8) FIFA 14
9) LEGO Marvel Super Heroes
10) Tomb Raider 2013
Definitive Edition: <85K
XX) Wii Fit U: <20K
XX) Tearaway: <3.3K
Only one software SKU this month was >100K
Ranking among last-gen consoles is PS3 > Wii U > 360
Nintendo SW numbers in OP: Retail + Digital, no bundles
That's really crazy.
"We had some forecast at that time from where we thought both Xbox
and PlayStation would be and that's what we based our decision on. I
think we're still feeling very comfortable with that," -EA
Hey,EA says there confident in their forecasts. ¯\_(ツ
_/¯
theprodigy
Member
Nintendo fan says Wii U is last gen
RIP Wii U
edit: waittt a minute
didn't you say the only SKU to break 100k was the 360 SKU of CoD?
and since Minecraft is only listed for 360, that means Minecraft is also under 100k, and therefore so is everything else under it (obviously Tomb Raider is a minimum of 85k)
I don't think MS ever recovered from their initial, horrific unveiling. I remember my FB account lighting up with linked tweets and video game chatter from people who I honestly didn't know had ever touched a controller. Once that narrative was spun and allowed - foolishly - to fester, it became the reality regardless of whether or not MS righted the course at a later date. I was fairly sure at that point that only the Xbox faithful would grab one at launch, which it seems may be the case.
Next month should be a doozey. Do we have any 'anecdotal' GAF (read: twice as accurate as Pachter lol) chatter on how retail is looking this month?
Next month should be a doozey. Do we have any 'anecdotal' GAF (read: twice as accurate as Pachter lol) chatter on how retail is looking this month?
Refreshment.01
Member
God bless you!
Only card left for the 3DS is a very atractive redesign to boost sales for the rest of 2014, as sales are even collspsing in japan. Then early 2015 a line up of classics for discounted prices leading up to the release of the succesor.
Aquamarine
Member
No. It was said that there was only one SKU that was >100K. It was never confirmed to be the 360 SKU of CoD...that's what people presumed because Call of Duty: Ghosts was #1 this month at 330K. It might be, though. Who knows!
pretty done
Member
This is why we can't have nice things.
That's really crazy.
It's changed now:
1st place - PS4 version with 66,086 players.
2nd place - PS3 version with 49,684 players.
3rd place - Xbox 360 version with 48,777 players.
4th place - PC version with 47,551 players.
Last place - Xbox One version with 36,773 players.
"We had some forecast at that time from where we thought both Xbox
and PlayStation would be and that's what we based our decision on. I
think we're still feeling very comfortable with that," -EA
Hey,EA says there confident in their forecasts. ¯_(ツ
You're not trying hard enough to spin: 'The Xbox Family is a more popular place to play BF4 than on the PS4.'
And yes, EA bet on the wrong horse. How much, if any, it hurts them remains to be seen.
theprodigy
Member
.....
I'm fairly sure it's the 360 version, you can't fool me!
(especially since isn't the 360 to PS3 ratio like 3:2 for CoD, and those two are the top 2 SKUs)
also, any notable February releases?
What I want to know is, was it EA getting chummy with MS that caused to Activision Blizzard to get in bed with Sony, or was the other way around.
Man that is so sad - that is such as great, great little game.