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Official April 2007 NPD Prediction Thread
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
1. NDS - 500K
2. WII - 380K
3. 360 - 200K
4. PS2 - 200K
5. PSP - 190K
6. GBA - 110K
7. PS3 - 95K
8. GCN - 11K
9. XBX - 300 (if it is still tracked)
Edit : Increased NDS from 440K to 500K (forgot about Pokemon and increased manufacturing capabilities). Also changed some of the numbers based on my actual result from March Prediction.
2. WII - 380K
3. 360 - 200K
4. PS2 - 200K
5. PSP - 190K
6. GBA - 110K
7. PS3 - 95K
8. GCN - 11K
9. XBX - 300 (if it is still tracked)
Edit : Increased NDS from 440K to 500K (forgot about Pokemon and increased manufacturing capabilities). Also changed some of the numbers based on my actual result from March Prediction.
TurtleSnatcher
Member
Pokemon 1.6mil combined
DS - 525k
Wii - 400k
360 - 180k
PS3 - 120k
PSP - 170k
PS2 - 215k
DS - 525k
Wii - 400k
360 - 180k
PS3 - 120k
PSP - 170k
PS2 - 215k
Tyrannical
Banned
I wish we had accurate ship figures for the 360 Elite. Most of the reports I've seen / heard was that the elite was mostly sold out the first week.
I can see the 360 outselling the PS3 by over 2-1 for the month.
I can see the 360 outselling the PS3 by over 2-1 for the month.
Bungalow Bob
Banned
davepoobond said:
Dave, next time you try to sound sure of yourself, try not to be completely wrong.
dammitmattt
Banned
CrushDance said:
But I thought that no 360 games, including Gears of War, are system sellers because it's just the same migratory base of 360 owners moving from one game to another. Right? RIGHT???
NeoGAF needs to stay consistent with the 360 hate.
Also, what do trade-ins have to do with anything? It's not a negative sale.
bmf said:
I agree about the Wii and DS numbers. However, I would argue that a large majority of the Elite purchases were not by people new to the platform, but by the existing hardcore of the hardcore owners, which would not be displaced sales.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
I'm going to be bullish on both the Wii and 360 (increased production on one and a new sku on the other)
DS - 540k
Wii - 400k
360 - 300k
PS2 - 260k
PSP - 220k
GBA - 140k
PS3 - 110k
GC - 25k
XBX - 1k
DS - 540k
Wii - 400k
360 - 300k
PS2 - 260k
PSP - 220k
GBA - 140k
PS3 - 110k
GC - 25k
XBX - 1k
dammitmattt said:
That's what I thought too but when I was waiting to get one, I was the only one getting an Elite as the second system. There was another person in line who was selling his system to his boss and was getting an Elite for himself (still counts as an extra 360 owner in the process. right?) Others were on their first xbox 360 (reason to buy: 1 person Halo, 1 person Too Human). And this was in a very tech savvy neighborhood that I would have expected everybody who wanted an XBOX 360 to already have one.
I have to admit that I did not talk to everybody in the line so this does not really mean much.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
DS - 450k
Wii - 350k
360 - 250k
PS2 - 260k
PSP - 240k
GBA - 140k
PS3 - 105k
GC - 25k
XBX - 1k
Wii - 350k
360 - 250k
PS2 - 260k
PSP - 240k
GBA - 140k
PS3 - 105k
GC - 25k
XBX - 1k
dammitmattt said:
To do a competent top 10 software prediction, you really need a lot more data than we currently get.
We effectively get all the relevant hardware sales to be able to make educated guesses on the hardware (e.g. 360 sold x units last April, PS2 dropped x units per week from last March to last April, etc.). For software, you really should try to know how it's predecessor did (LTD and month-to-month after release), how similar games did on the platform, adjust past performance for the # of weeks in this release month, etc. The official NPD threads don't give anywhere near that much information, so I don't think we could do much more than blind guesses for a software top ten.
The Sphinx said:
Xbox sold more hardware than PS3 last month?
davepoobond said:
So the PS3 has sold 14 million units, just like the Xbox?
Bo130 said:
All the previous games have been listed separately by NPD.
This Thursday will be insane to watch.
Potentially,
we could have PS3 < 10K a week in Japan and < 100K a month in the U.S. on the same night.
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Here are my predictions
Nintendo DS: 600,000
PSP: 350,000 (the bump after the price decrease)
PS3: 130,000
XBOX 360: 220,000
Nintendo Wii: 300,000
GBA: 200,000 (die damn you)
PS2: 290,000
Nintendo DS: 600,000
PSP: 350,000 (the bump after the price decrease)
PS3: 130,000
XBOX 360: 220,000
Nintendo Wii: 300,000
GBA: 200,000 (die damn you)
PS2: 290,000
Here's a look at how PS3 sales are trending:
This is based on a per-week basis.
Jan: 48,800
Feb: 32,000 (34.43% drop)
Mar: 26,000 (18.75% drop)
Apr: ?
It's been dropping each month, but the amount it drops has become less and less. The fact that some months are 5 weeks and some are 4 weeks affect the total drop for the month, but as there are 4.5 weeks between the mid-point of Jan and Feb, Feb and March, and March and April, we conveniently don't have to alter the percentages accordingly (It's gone 5, 4, 5, 4 so far this year).
If the PS3 continues to decline in sales, but this rate of decline continues to drop at the same rate, it will decline 10.21% in April, which puts weekly April sales at 23,234, giving the total month sales of ~93,000.
However, Mororstorm and other titles likely helped out in March, so the trending decline probably isn't healing as quickly as represented by March's less devastating drop off, so in terms of this trend, it's likely that PS3 dropped more than 10.21% for April and will have sales of less than 93,000.
Essentially, in terms of this analysis, the more favourable the effect Motorstorm had on PS3 hardware sales in March, the lower PS3 sales will be in April. In laymans terms "Wow, even with Motorstorm, PS3 still dropped another 18.75%?! Don't expect this downward trend to end anytime soon!"
Also, increased competition from the Elite could have caused bigger drops for PS3 in April.
If PS3 sales magically stopped its declining and had the same average week-on-week as March, then PS3 will achieve 104,000 in April.
This is based on a per-week basis.
Jan: 48,800
Feb: 32,000 (34.43% drop)
Mar: 26,000 (18.75% drop)
Apr: ?
It's been dropping each month, but the amount it drops has become less and less. The fact that some months are 5 weeks and some are 4 weeks affect the total drop for the month, but as there are 4.5 weeks between the mid-point of Jan and Feb, Feb and March, and March and April, we conveniently don't have to alter the percentages accordingly (It's gone 5, 4, 5, 4 so far this year).
If the PS3 continues to decline in sales, but this rate of decline continues to drop at the same rate, it will decline 10.21% in April, which puts weekly April sales at 23,234, giving the total month sales of ~93,000.
However, Mororstorm and other titles likely helped out in March, so the trending decline probably isn't healing as quickly as represented by March's less devastating drop off, so in terms of this trend, it's likely that PS3 dropped more than 10.21% for April and will have sales of less than 93,000.
Essentially, in terms of this analysis, the more favourable the effect Motorstorm had on PS3 hardware sales in March, the lower PS3 sales will be in April. In laymans terms "Wow, even with Motorstorm, PS3 still dropped another 18.75%?! Don't expect this downward trend to end anytime soon!"
Also, increased competition from the Elite could have caused bigger drops for PS3 in April.
If PS3 sales magically stopped its declining and had the same average week-on-week as March, then PS3 will achieve 104,000 in April.
MiamiWesker
Member
DS - One billion kagillion units
Wii - 350k
PS2 - 200k
360- 225k
PS3 - 130k
PSP - 240k
Wii - 350k
PS2 - 200k
360- 225k
PS3 - 130k
PSP - 240k
Visualante
Member
Even when you apply objective logic, you still get lol.Parl said:
sonycowboy said:
I think what Sphinx was saying was that the first percentage is the number of total units sold (hardware + software + accessories all added together), and the second percentage is the total revenue sold (hardware + software + accessories all added together).donny2112 said:
At least that's what I took from the numbers that Sonycowboy posted, and the numbers seem to make sense in that respect. Maybe he'll drop in again to help clarify the numbers.
my predictions
Nintendo DS 480K
PlayStation 2 200K (no god of war 2)
Wii 220K (shortages)
Xbox 360 220K (elite)
PlayStation Portable 200K (price drop)
Game Boy Advance 120K
PlayStation 3 100K
GameCube 18K
Xbox n/a
I feel a little less confident this round, there's been quite a few small things.
Nintendo DS 480K
PlayStation 2 200K (no god of war 2)
Wii 220K (shortages)
Xbox 360 220K (elite)
PlayStation Portable 200K (price drop)
Game Boy Advance 120K
PlayStation 3 100K
GameCube 18K
Xbox n/a
I feel a little less confident this round, there's been quite a few small things.
MasterMFauli
Banned
NDS: 560k
Wii: 330k
X360: 280k
PS2: 150k
GBA: 140k
PSP: 108k
PS3: 85k
GCN: 45k
XBOX: 2k
Wii: 330k
X360: 280k
PS2: 150k
GBA: 140k
PSP: 108k
PS3: 85k
GCN: 45k
XBOX: 2k
Interesting. Very interesting.Parl said:
Just to satisfy my curiousity I ran a similar analysis of the Japanese numbers. I took the MC numbers for every week, added them up to 4 or 5 week months to correspond with the NPD polling periods, found an average per-week sales rate for each of those periods, and then calculated the percentage drop for each. It looks like this:
December: 60,232 weekly average
January: 31,061 weekly average (48.4% drop)
February: 26,856 weekly average (13.6% drop)
March: 21,124 weekly average (21.3% drop)
April: 12,178 weekly average (42.3% drop!)
You may notice the February drop was rather small, and the April drop is huge. This is because of the Gundabump in late February and early March (release of Gundam Musou, the biggest PS3 game in Japan to date). There is no equivalent release in the US. Once again out of curiousity I artificially removed the Gundabump weeks, recalculated the averages, and came up with this:
December: 60,232 weekly average
January: 31,061 weekly average (48.4% drop)
February: 21,141 weekly average (31.9% drop)
March: 17,289 weekly average (18.2% drop)
April: 12,178 weekly average (29.6% drop)
Now the rate of decreased sales from January thru March in Media-Create data match the NPD trends rather closely. 32% drop in February, 18% in March. In April the rate of decline actually picks up, to nearly 30%, despite a holiday week we don't have in the US. If the US market were to behave in a similar manner we would predict weekly sales of ~18,304, or only ~73,216 sales for the month.
Granted, the US market isn't exactly like the Japanese market, but with the exception of the Gundabump they have been behaving in a similar manner toward the PS3 up to this point.
My projections: DS sells a lot, Wii continues to make good numbers and 360 numbers rise due to elite sales, overcomingo those of PS2. PSP sales also rise.
1. Nintendo DS 540K
2. Wii 330K
3. Xbox 360 280K
4. PlayStation Portable 250K
5. PlayStation 2 230K
6. PlayStation 3 150K
7. Game Boy Advance 90K
8. GameCube 10K
9. Xbox 0K
1. Nintendo DS 540K
2. Wii 330K
3. Xbox 360 280K
4. PlayStation Portable 250K
5. PlayStation 2 230K
6. PlayStation 3 150K
7. Game Boy Advance 90K
8. GameCube 10K
9. Xbox 0K
Flakster99
Member
DS - 750k
Wii - 510k
PSP - 280k
PS2 - 260k
360 - 235k
GBA - 160k
PS3 - 85k
GC - 12k
XBX - 1k
Wii - 510k
PSP - 280k
PS2 - 260k
360 - 235k
GBA - 160k
PS3 - 85k
GC - 12k
XBX - 1k
Sgt. Killjoy
Member
Nintendo DS 500k
Playstation 2 250k
Wii 285k
360 290k
Playstation Portable 150k
GBA 130k
PS3 100k
Gamecube 13,000
Xbox (why do people still include this?)
Playstation 2 250k
Wii 285k
360 290k
Playstation Portable 150k
GBA 130k
PS3 100k
Gamecube 13,000
Xbox (why do people still include this?)
donny2112 said:
Chiggs
Gold Member
Nintendo DS: 1.2k - Pokemon!
PSP: 890k - April Momentum + Price Drop + Tax returns
PS3: 745k - April Momentum + Tax returns + Home and LBP on the Horizon--and these will attract the casuals, believe me!
Nintendo Wii: 125k - Can't find them in stores
Xbox 360: 75k - Nobody likes the Elite on GAF, so it won't sell.
PSP: 890k - April Momentum + Price Drop + Tax returns
PS3: 745k - April Momentum + Tax returns + Home and LBP on the Horizon--and these will attract the casuals, believe me!
Nintendo Wii: 125k - Can't find them in stores
Xbox 360: 75k - Nobody likes the Elite on GAF, so it won't sell.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Predictions
NDS - 450.000
360 - 300.000
WII - 275.000
PS2 - 225.000
PSP - 150.000
GBA - 125.000
PS3 - 100.000
Just felt like doing them in 25k intervals, ex-ioi style. Getting Nintendo hardware right is like a lottery anyway...
NDS - 450.000
360 - 300.000
WII - 275.000
PS2 - 225.000
PSP - 150.000
GBA - 125.000
PS3 - 100.000
Just felt like doing them in 25k intervals, ex-ioi style. Getting Nintendo hardware right is like a lottery anyway...