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Official March 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

donny2112

Member
The March 2007 NPD report should be released next Thursday, April 19th @ 4:30 p.m. EDT. The March reporting period is five weeks, March 4 - April 7.


February 2007 HW results - thanks to sonycowboy

Nintendo DS 485,000
Wii 335,000
PlayStation 2 295,000
Xbox 360 228,000
PlayStation Portable 176,000
Game Boy Advance 136,000
PlayStation 3 127,000
GameCube 24,000
Xbox 480


February 2007 SW Top 10 - thanks to sonycowboy

360 CRACKDOWN 427K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 371K
NDS DIDDY KONG RACING 262K
WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS 130K
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR 130K
360 GEARS OF WAR 119K
360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 113K
360 LOST PLANET: EXTREME CONDITION 111K
WII WARIOWARE: SMOOTH MOVES 109K
360 NBA STREET HOMECOURT 102k


Potentially significant releases from March 4 - April 7

NDS - Wario: Master of Disguise (3/5), Spectrobes (3/6), Custom Robo (3/19), Puzzle Quest (3/20), TMNT (3/20), Final Fantasy Fables: Chocobo Tales (4/3)
WII - Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 (3/13), The Godfather: Blackhand Edition (3/20), TMNT (3/20)
PS2 - GTA: Vice City Stories (3/5), Burnout Dominator (3/6), God of War 2 (3/13), TMNT (3/20), Singstar Pops (4/3), Singstar Rocks (4/3)
360 - GRAW 2 (3/6), Def Jam Icon (3/6), Armored Core 4 (3/20), TMNT (3/20), Virtua Tennis 3 (3/20), Guitar Hero II (4/3)
PSP - Burnout Dominator (3/6), Afterburner: Black Falcon (3/20), Puzzle Quest (3/20), TMNT (3/20), Virtua Tennis 3 (3/26), Price Drop - $169 (4/3)
GBA - TMNT (3/20)
PS3 - Motorstorm (3/6), NBA Street Homecourt (3/6), Def Jam Icon (3/6), Armored Core 4 (3/20), Oblivion (3/20), The Godfather: Don's Edition (3/20), Virtua Tennis 3 (3/20), Splinter Cell: Double Agent (3/20), Enchanted Arms (4/3)
GCN - TMNT (3/20)


Japanese Sales March 5 - April 8 - for comparison

NDS - 551,892
WII - 291,084
PSP - 212,070
PS3 - 105,618
PS2 - 76,888
360 - 16,587
GBA - 6,754


(Wedbush) March 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 3% Sales Growth - thanks sonycowboy :)

Wedbush_predictions said:
Wii 400,000
PS3 165,000
Xbox 360 250,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 210,000
DS 250,000
GBA 165,000

Lazard: March Sales Flat On Short Nintendo Supply




My Predictions

1. NDS - 550K
2. WII - 375K
3. PS2 - 275K
4. 360 - 265K
5. PSP - 222.5K
6. PS3 - 170K
7. GBA - 125K
8. GCN - 25K
9. XBX - 0.5K
 

donny2112

Member
February 2007 NPD Prediction Results (All but XBX and GCN)

1. pilonv1 - 218K
2. Chibbi Brady - 260K
3. Javy007 - 283K
4. donny2112 - 290K
5. DayShallCome - 298K
6. argon - 300K

Important note for predictors:

1-23 in the rankings all had one thing in common. They all had predictions for the 7 main consoles. 68-97 (there were 97 entries last month :eek: ) also had one thing in common. None of them had complete predictions for all seven consoles.

Get the hint? ;)


Congratulations, pilonv1! :D
 
Nintendo DS 630,540
Wii 342,025
PlayStation 2 368,750
Xbox 360 289,560
PlayStation Portable 264,033
Game Boy Advance 142,115
PlayStation 3 138,267
 

Bo130

Member
NDS: 280k
360: 250k
PS2: 240k
Wii: 220k
PSP: 190k
PS3: 170k
GBA: 140k

EDIT: I think these are closer:

NDS: 410.000
Wii: 290.000
360: 270.000
PS2: 260.000
PSP: 210.000
PS3: 165.000
GBA: 120.000
 

VALIS

Member
Cuz I just like contests...

DS = 345K
Wii = 310K
PS2 = 270K
360 = 255K
PSP = 210K
PS3 = 190K
GBA = 109K
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Nintendo DS 350,000
Wii 350,000 (low supply most of the month, killer last week)
PlayStation 2 310,000
Xbox 360 220,000
PlayStation Portable 190,000
Game Boy Advance 110,000
PlayStation 3 130,000 (don't think it saw much if any bump)
GameCube 15,000
Xbox 500
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
AniHawk said:
Wii and DS, despite the long month, were heavily supply-constrained until the very last week.


Do you know if that was industry wide, or are you just speaking of your store?
 

AniHawk

Member
schuelma said:
Do you know if that was industry wide, or are you just speaking of your store?

I don't think it was just the store or chain. I'm pretty sure the rumor of them waiting until the FY to be over was true, because as soon as April hit there were suddenly bunches of Wiis at ALL major chains.
 

Deku

Banned
Wii was @ 1.85 million after February NPD. If reports are to be believed they have sold 2.5 million in NA by the end of March, they would have sold 450,000 Wii in the US for March. Adjusted for Canadian sales which I peg at 8% of the Wii hardware market.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
AniHawk said:
I don't think it was just the store or chain. I'm pretty sure the rumor of them waiting until the FY to be over was true, because as soon as April hit there were suddenly bunches of Wiis at ALL major chains.

Thanks....if that's true, I expect a crap load of "Nintendo am DOOMED" posts next Thursday. :lol :lol


(and then April the hammer drops)
 
schuelma said:
Do you know if that was industry wide, or are you just speaking of your store?

Its pretty true among all retailers. No supply from the beginning of March until the first week of April.

When April 2nd hit Nintendo had pallets full of systems waiting at retailer warehouse doors.

But remember.. that last week in April was a HUMONGUS shipment. One of the largest since launch.
 

AniHawk

Member
schuelma said:
Thanks....if that's true, I expect a crap load of "Nintendo am DOOMED" posts next Thursday. :lol :lol


(and then April the hammer drops)

April's gonna be horrific. SPM + Wii and Pokemon + DS. Dear god no.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Deku said:
Wii was @ 1.85 million after February NPD. If reports are to be believed they have sold 2.5 million in NA by the end of March, they would have sold 450,000 Wii in the US for March. (2.5-1.85)*0.92. Adjusted for Canadian sales which I peg at 8% of the Wii hardware market.


That's another good point- if Nintendo's recent statements are to be believed then they definitely sold a healthy amount in March.
 

Branduil

Member
Nintendo DS 434,000
Wii 374,000
PlayStation 2 275,000
Xbox 360 245,000
PlayStation Portable 208,000
Game Boy Advance 122,000
PlayStation 3 130,000
GameCube 21,000
Xbox 360
 
legend166 said:
Anihawk, that's what everyone said about February and it sold 335k in 4 weeks. I think it will match that atleast.
The difference is February had small shipments throughout the month as opposed to March which had diddly squat.. until the last week.. Which I think could easily make up for the lack of sales throughout the month because the shipments to retailers were so large.
 

Deku

Banned
schuelma said:
That's another good point- if Nintendo's recent statements are to be believed then they definitely sold a healthy amount in March.

FYI, i actually typed the wrong numbers. I also accounted for units unsold in the pipeline to arrive at 450k.
 

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
Here we go!

NDS 555k
Wii 355k
Playstation 2 335k
X360 250k
PSP 195k
GBA 150k
PS3 150k
GC 30k
XBX 350

Do we have the results from last month?
 
My Predictions

1. NDS - 400k
2. WII - 330k
3. PS2 - 230k
4. 360 - 210k
5. PSP - 182K*
6. PS3 - 150k
7. GBA - 70K
8. GCN - 10K
9. XBX - 0

*I can foresee the PSP being ranked 3rd starting next month due to the price drop, perhaps occassionally ranked 2nd due to Wii availability.

D.
 

Mar

Member
duderon said:
GBA 150k
PS3 150k

grudgematch.jpg
 

deadbeef

Member
Nintendo DS 465K
Wii 308K
PlayStation 2 294K
Xbox 360 220K
PlayStation Portable 172K
Game Boy Advance 135K
PlayStation 3 140K
GameCube 21K
Xbox 456
 

mood

Member
Nintendo DS 370,000
Wii 390,000
PlayStation 2 310,000
Xbox 360 265,000
PlayStation Portable 220,000
Game Boy Advance 155,000
PlayStation 3 220,000
GameCube 35,000
Xbox 600
 

arne

Member
Nintendo DS 450,000
PlayStation 2 295,000
Xbox 360 265,000
Wii 210,000
PlayStation Portable 175,000
PlayStation 3 150,000
Game Boy Advance 123,000
GameCube 18,000
Xbox 375
 

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
My predictions

NDS - 600,000
WII - 400,000
PS2 - 250,000
360 - 310,000
PSP - 230,000
PS3 - 150,000
GBA - 215,000
GCN - 40,000
XBX - 540

I know I will be off, but by how much....we will never know (until next week)
 
For the first time I'll try and do the some predictions as well.

NDS: 350k
Wii: 300k
PS2: 275k
X360: 200k
PSP: 190k
PS3: 140k
GBA: 120k

Edited because I remembered that the price drop of the PSP came in April, so we won't see it on March NPD :D
 
If the 360 outsells the PS3 again by 100k or more. I will seriously flip out.

NDS: 327k
Wii: 286k
360: 274k
PS2: 235k
PSP: 187k
PS3: 110k
GBA: 165k

Looks like the GBA wins round 2.
 

Duke Togo

Member
Revelations said:
If the 360 outsells the PS3 again by 100k or more. I will seriously flip out.

NDS: 327k
Wii: 286k
360: 274k
PS2: 235k
PSP: 187k
PS3: 110k
Well, it certainly looks like you're prepared to flip out.
 

Mrbob

Member
Someone going to be man enough to say 300K for X360? I will! :D

X360 - 300K
PS3 - 160K
Wii - 220K
DS - 280K
PSP - 220K
PS2 - 320K
GBA - 160K
 
I'm in...

Nintendo DS 516,000
Wii 355,000
PlayStation 2 310,000
Xbox 360 270,000
PlayStation Portable 240,000
Game Boy Advance 140,000
PlayStation 3 145,000

DB
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
TurtleSnatcher said:
The difference is February had small shipments throughout the month as opposed to March which had diddly squat.. until the last week.. Which I think could easily make up for the lack of sales throughout the month because the shipments to retailers were so large.
That's not true. I know Walmart and TRU received shipments in the early weeks of March (TRU also received more at the end of the month), while Target hasn't received any since the last time the console was in their ad.

I guessed over on the Wii last month because I compared our limited January shipments to our larger Febraury shipments. We received 82 Wii's on day in Feb, more than we received for launch, and a fairly steady supply throughout the month. I therefore concluded that the weekly average had to be higher overall... they were slightly lower. I'm not going to make assumptions based on what we were sent again.

My prediction:
DS: 550k
Wii: 350k
PS2: 300k
360: 265k
PSP: 225k
PS3: 175k
GBA: 150k
GCN: 25k
XBX: 500
 

GhaleonEB

Member
duketogo88 said:
Well, it certainly looks like you're prepared to flip out.
That's the thing with NPD threads. No matter what happens, someone flips out. Usually a lot of someones. It's a tradition.
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
Nintendo DS 420,000 (supply constraint)
PlayStation 2 295,000
PlayStation Portable 250,000
Wii 250,000 (supply)
PlayStation 3 230,000 (motorstorm, march excitement, ebay offload over)
Xbox 360 210,000 (nothing good released on march)
Game Boy Advance 110,000
 
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