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Official March 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

G

GhaleonEB

Member
InterMoniker said:
I dunno I did just launch in PAL territories...
Click to expand...
If you meant that will show up in the sales, I should point out that NPD is for the US only. If you mean, the PAL launch will help boost US sales, I ask why it didn't help in Japan. :p
 
I

InterMoniker

Member
GhaleonEB said:
If you meant that will show up in the sales, I should point out that NPD is for the US only. If you mean, the PAL launch will help boost US sales, I ask why it didn't help in Japan. :p
Click to expand...
Oh shit I thought this was worldwide. :lol
 
V

Vrolokus

Banned
PS3 sales > 360 sales in March is totally ricockulous.

But I'd almost like to see it, just because NeoGAF would look like Xerxes' harem for 2 weeks: midget tumblers, goat-headed lute players and all.
 
Q

QVT

Fair-weather, with pride!
Vrolokus said:
PS3 sales > 360 sales in March is totally ricockulous.

But I'd almost like to see it, just because NeoGAF would look like Xerxes' harem for 2 weeks: midget tumblers, goat-headed lute players and all.
Click to expand...

And scissoring?
 
M

milanbaros

Member?
First time predictions.

1. NDS - 530k
2. WII - 410k
3. PS2 - 320k
4. 360 - 250k
5. PSP - 190k
6. PS3 - 140k
7. GBA - 150k
8. GCN - 26k
9. XBX - .5k
 
P

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
Every month people predict 360 numbers higher than the PS2 and every month PS2 smacks them in the face. when will they learn....

My predictions:

DS - 410k: one king to rule them all. (should be interesting to see the PSP with the new price in April)
PS2 - 290k: still going strong in the US
PS3 - 240k: screw the haters. Motorstorm and Oblivion and March Exitement (tm), oh who am I kidding =(
Wii - 230k: Supply has been worse this month than ever.
360 - 210k: Elite leaks might hurt sales of the Premium.
PSP - 210k: Should see a major jump next month with new marketing and lower price.
The rest: Who cares really.
 
I

InterMoniker

Member
Vrolokus said:
PS3 sales > 360 sales in March is totally ricockulous.

But I'd almost like to see it, just because NeoGAF would look like Xerxes' harem for 2 weeks: midget tumblers, goat-headed lute players and all.
Click to expand...
:lol :lol :lol
 
J

JB1981

Member
NDS - 430k
Wii - 340k (supply constrained yes?)
PS2 - 290k
360 - 275k
PS3 - 170k
PSP - 205k (price cut right?)
GBA - 160k
 
C

Corwood Rep

Member
I'm making this shit up, i.e. basing it on nothing, not supply trends or anything like that, just on the off-chance that the NPD numbers come out and I'm completely right and can therefore say "I'm smarter than all you analyst bitches."

NDS: 480,000.
Wii: 320,000.
360: 250,000.
PS2: 245,000.
PSP: 214,000.
PS3: 193,000.
GBA: 129,000.
GCN: 49.
Xbox: 7.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
TheProfessor said:
PS2 @ $99 might make their wait a little longer
Click to expand...
it's certainly a stupid bet the month God of War 2 came out anyways imho.

still i think if you are hoping for the ps3 to beat the 360 this month that you're in for dissapointment there too.

PSP should be up thanks to the price drop, but again, it isn't touching the DS.
 
G

giant_frying_pan

Member
Predicto:

NDS: 508,751 (509k)
Wii: 362,386 (362k)
PS2: 308,661 (309k)
360: 261,853 (262k)
PSP: 215,079 (215k)
PS3: 153,463 (153k)
GBA: 159,284 (159k)
GCN: 35,117 (35k)
XBX: 400 (400)
 
Chiggs

Chiggs

Gold Member
I wonder if the reason we still see Xbox 360 vs. PS2 arguments is due to the fact that the PS3 can't outsell the 360 in North America.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
Chiggs said:
That's a fairly safe bet.
Click to expand...

yeah considering the 360 sold 190,000 last march, and 160,000 last feb.

the ps3 only sold 127,000 in feb so it would need some huge boost in sales to even get close to 190,000 xbox sold last year let alone sell 60,000 more.

the 360 will likley have an increase of 40-60,000 over last year.

xbox 360 230,000-250,000
ps3 150,000-160,000 maybe less.

wii sold out 400,000

the rest who knows but this seems like a good prediciton based off of performance of the ps3 and 360

also regardless what the numbers are after this month ps3 fans will no longer have the argument the ps3 is selling more than the xbox 360 did this time last year. and will be the 4th month in a row the xbox 360's last years sales will beat the ps3's.

the wii? man i went and bout a ps3 and was hoping to get a wii as well. could not find one any where. they will sell 400,000+ but who buys these things? where do you find them lol. i totally wnated one for my wifes b-day which is tomm. no luck
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Chiggs said:
I wonder if the reason we still see Xbox 360 vs. PS2 arguments is due to the fact that the PS3 can't outsell the 360 in North America.
Click to expand...

I think it's somewhat independant of that. The PSOne handily beat the Xbox and GCN until the end of 2002, but gave way in 2003. I think that transition has it's own set of concerns that are worth considering.

PS3 is going to continue to be a laggard for quite awhile. I don't even see a price drop of ~$100 doing a tremendous amount until the bigger games are out. 360 should easily continue to outsell it for the remainder of 2007, just as the Wii will continue to outsell the 360 for the remainder of this year.

Obviously, it gets far more interesting later this year when Halo 3, MGS 4, GTA IV, Mario Galaxy, etc, etc come out to see which titles prove to be system sellers and to what extent, but I don't know if it will change the current rankings.
 
Chiggs

Chiggs

Gold Member
sonycowboy said:
I
Obviously, it gets far more interesting later this year when Halo 3, MGS 4, GTA IV, Mario Galaxy, etc, etc come out to see which titles prove to be system sellers and to what extent, but I don't know if it will change the current rankings.
Click to expand...


Mario Galaxy vs. GTA IV vs. Halo 3. That's definitely gonna be interesting. I intentionally left MGS4 out of it. As good as the game looks to be, I don't think it will hang with the big three I just mentioned.
 
V

Vrolokus

Banned
Hiro_Kunimi_80 said:
FIXED :D
price drop + GTA4 + H3 in november ( or sept :D )
=
massive damage in Q4/07
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't see how MS can't have a huge Q4 2007 (barring a Halo 3 or GTA4 delay into 2008).

And talk of the PS2 outselling next-gen consoles is overplayed. The NES outsold the SNES/Genesis for a while, the SNES/Genesis outsold the Saturn/PS1/N64 for a while, the PS1 did better than the PS2/DC for a while... etc. Dominant "last-gen" consoles have libraries of hundreds of games and hover around $100, of course they will sell well.
 
R

rs7k

Member
My predictions.

Xbox 360: 213,000

Playstation 3: 102,000

Wii: 340,000

Playstation 2: 279,000

DS Lite: 417,000

PSP: 258,000
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
sonycowboy said:
I think it's somewhat independant of that. The PSOne handily beat the Xbox and GCN until the end of 2002, but gave way in 2003. I think that transition has it's own set of concerns that are worth considering.

PS3 is going to continue to be a laggard for quite awhile. I don't even see a price drop of ~$100 doing a tremendous amount until the bigger games are out. 360 should easily continue to outsell it for the remainder of 2007, just as the Wii will continue to outsell the 360 for the remainder of this year.

Obviously, it gets far more interesting later this year when Halo 3, MGS 4, GTA IV, Mario Galaxy, etc, etc come out to see which titles prove to be system sellers and to what extent, but I don't know if it will change the current rankings.
Click to expand...

I really think the heavy hitters only have the chance of affecting MS or Nintendo. If Sony doesn't build an install base at a more significant rate by the time their first major releases debut (Halo 3 and Smash Brothers?) NA will only be a two horse race.
 
S

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
Gekkonidae said:
DS: Eleventy Billion Is your answer
Let's see what you've wageredEverything else: Threeve That's not even a number. That's a mix between Three and Five
Click to expand...

:lol Which by the way, multiplied by 4 will be the number of bans in the NPD thread.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Lefty42o said:
6:30? i thought it was 4:30 after markets close?

either way its suppoe to be today sometime lol. 6:30 sounds good though
Click to expand...
That's the countdown to when SC will be able to post the data, not to when NPD is released. IIRC, he said 6:30 east coast time, two hours after the markets close. That's about when he posted the last two months as well.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
DeaconKnowledge said:
I really think the heavy hitters only have the chance of affecting MS or Nintendo. If Sony doesn't build an install base at a more significant rate by the time their first major releases debut (Halo 3 and Smash Brothers?) NA will only be a two horse race.
Click to expand...

its not good when i own more bluray movies than ps3 games.

and any multiplat games will already be played on my 360. Live and achievments.

but i do love alot about the ps3. just no freaking games lol.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
That's the countdown to when SC will be able to post the data, not to when NPD is released. IIRC, he said 6:30 east coast time, two hours after the markets close. That's about when he posted the last two months as well.
Click to expand...

see i i did not know lol

appreciate the info. looks like i should order a pizza and get some beer. nothing like gaf on npd day lol.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Lefty42o said:
see i i did not know lol

appreciate the info. looks like i should order a pizza and get some beer. nothing like gaf on npd day lol.
Click to expand...
Also, popcorn. It's not an NPD day without popcorn!
 
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