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Official November 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EST on Friday, December 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Format:

[360]
[GBA]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

We may not get GBA numbers, but we'll keep predicting for them until January, just in case.

Examples:

Code: 
Good              Bad
[PS2] 123K        [PS2] 123.5K
[PS2] 123,000     [PS2] 123.000
[PS2] 123000      [PS2] - 123000
[PS2] 123456      [PS2] one-hundred and twenty-three thousand

The Official Software Prediction thread is here, but if you want to predict for games outside of that list, put them in quote tags or else they may be picked up as hardware predictions. Also, you can put comments on the same line spaced after the number for the hardware predictions.


NPD Release: December 13th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)
NPD Coverage: November 4 - December 1 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)


October 2007 Results (4-week month) - thanks to sonycowboy and NPD

sonycowboy said:
HW Results

Wii 519K
Nintendo DS 458K
Xbox 360 366K
PSP 286K
PlayStation 2 184K
PlayStation 3 121K

Top 10 SW
Rank # Units
360 HALO 3 * MICROSOFT (CORP) SEP 2007 MATURE (M) 1 433.8K
360 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ GUITACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 2 383.2K
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ GUITACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 3 286.3K
PS2 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK W/ GUITACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 4 271.1K
NDS LEGEND OF ZELDA: PHANTOM HOURGLASS NINTENDO OF AMERICA SEP 2007 EVERYONE (E) 5 262.8K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA FEB 2007 EVERYONE (E) 6 239.7K
360 HALF LIFE 2: EPISODE 2 THE ORANGE BOX ELECTRONIC ARTS OCT 2007 MATURE (M) 7 238.4K
PS2 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK ACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 8 231.7K
PS2 FIFA SOCCER 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS OCT 2007 EVERYONE (E) 9 129.7K
NDS BRAIN AGE 2: MORE TRAINING IN MINUTES A NINTENDO OF AMERICA AUG 2007 EVERYONE (E) 10 116.9K
Click to expand...
* - combined


Potentially significant releases from November 4 - December 1

360 - COD 4 (11/5), LEGO SW CS (11/6), Assassin's Creed (11/13), Need for Speed: PS (11/13), Rock Band (11/20), Mass Effect (11/20)
NDS - LEGO SW CS (11/6), DQM:Joker (11/6), Contra 4 (11/13), Mario Party DS (11/19), FFXII: RW (11/20)
PS2 - Need for Speed: PS (11/13)
PS3 - (PS3 40GB - $399 (11/2)), COD 4 (11/5), LEGO SW CS (11/6), Assassin's Creed (11/13), Need for Speed: PS (11/13), Uncharted (11/15), Rock Band (11/20)
PSP - Silent Hill Origins (11/6), SOCOM: TS (11/6), MGS: PO+ (11/13)
WII - Fire Emblem (11/5), LEGO SW CS (11/6), Mario & Sonic (11/6), SMG (11/12), RE:UC (11/13), Ghost Squad (11/20)
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
[360] 900k
[GBA] 200k
[NDS] 1300k
[PS2] 900k
[PS3] 600k
[PSP] 880k
[WII] 950k


for posterity: my original 360 is 1100k...
 
T

TJ Spyke

Member
[WII] 1200K
[NDS] 1100K
[360] 569K
[PSP] 352K
[PS3] 288K
[PS2] 212K
[GBA] 67K

Can it be like this? I put them in the order I think they will finish, or do I have to list Xbox 360 first?
 
D

donny2112

Member
TJ Spyke said:
[WII] 1.2 million
[NDS] 1.1 million
[360] 569K
[PSP] 310K
[PS2] 212K
[PS3] 208K
[GBA] 67K

Can it be like this? I put them in the order I think they will finish, or do I have to list Xbox 360 first?
Click to expand...

donny2112 said:
Code: 
Bad
[PS2] 123.5K
Click to expand...

That will be read that you're predicting WII to sell 12 units and NDS to sell 11 units. ;) Order doesn't matter, though.
 
B

Bildi

Member
Go go Gadget stab-in-the-dark :\

[360] 785,000
[GBA] 160,000
[NDS] 1,080,000
[PS2] 520,000
[PS3] 300,000
[PSP] 480,000
[WII] 1,000,000
 
R

RevoDS

Junior Member
This month's gonna be fun :D

[NDS] 1,350,000
[WII] 965,000
[360] 830,000
[PSP] 455,000
[PS2] 425,000
[PS3] 380,000
[GBA] 150,000
 
V

VALIS

Member
[360] 790,000
[GBA] 180,000
[NDS] 1,200,000
[PS2] 390,000
[PS3] 440,000
[PSP] 530,000
[WII] 910,000
 
R

RBH

Member
DantesWrath said:
[360] 350k
[NDS] 650k
[PS3] 750k
Click to expand...

stanley5.gif
 
C

cashman

Banned
My best guesstimate.

[360] 837,521
[GBA] 100,492
[NDS] 1,224,678
[PS2] 659,340
[PS3] 362,992
[PSP] 500, 310
[WII] 984,725
 
S

Sharp

Member
DantesWrath said:
[NDS] 650k
Click to expand...
Even ignoring your other estimates, the DS sold more than 650k in just one week.

Anyway, yeah, it's going to be a banner month in this banner year of videogame sales. As usual, I am a coward and provide no estimates! I think people are predicting the PSP to be kind of low, though, at least for November. Maybe I'm just not familiar with how PSP sales pan out?
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
davepoobond said:
[360] 1100k
Click to expand...
That seems a bit far. That would be matching what it did last December in five weeks, in the best monthly performance an Xbox has ever seen.
Sharp said:
I think people are predicting the PSP to be kind of low, though, at least for November. Maybe I'm just not familiar with how PSP sales pan out?
Click to expand...
Last November it was 412K. Looks like a pretty big majority so far have it up, by varying degrees.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
JoshuaJSlone said:
That seems a bit far. That would be matching what it did last December in five weeks, in the best monthly performance an Xbox has ever seen.
Click to expand...

maybe, but i think that the 360's line up should really show it off this year as compared to last year, not to mention Halo 3 and a lower price is available. lots of 3rd party games (GHIII, CoD4) that should push the hardware too.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
davepoobond said:
maybe, but i think that the 360's line up should really show it off this year as compared to last year, not to mention Halo 3 and a lower price is available. lots of 3rd party games (GHIII, CoD4) that should push the hardware too.
Click to expand...
Bear in mind it sold 310k the week of Black Friday, which is typically much higher than the weeks that preceed it. There were 2 weeks in the month before it came, so most of the sales period would be at a rate much less than what it would take to get to 1.1m (unless this week was even bigger).
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
GhaleonEB said:
Bear in mind it sold 310k the week of Black Friday, which is typically much higher than the weeks that preceed it. There were 2 weeks in the month before it came, so most of the sales period would be at a rate much less than what it would take to get to 1.1m (unless this week was even bigger).
Click to expand...


week 1 - 150k
week 2 - 150k
week 3 (BF) - 310k
week 4 - 290k

=
1100k


i think its doable...perhaps its overshot by about 100k or so, but i think i'm willing to gamble with it. i may readjust later though.
 
P

papelnabangka

Member
Just checking, but we're still gonna get hardware numbers this month, right?

davepoobond said:
week 1 - 250k
week 2 - 250k
week 3 (BF) - 310k
week 4 - 290k

=
1100k


i think its doable...perhaps its overshot by about 100k or so, but i think i'm willing to gamble with it. i may readjust later though.
Click to expand...


Your 2nd week seems awfully high. You have to factor in that the 360 was doing less than 100k per week just 2 weeks prior and I reckon that there might be some dip in 360 sales right before Black Friday in preparation for the unofficial price cuts/bundle freebies.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
papelnabangka said:
Just checking, but we're still gonna get hardware numbers this month, right?




Your 2nd week seems awfully high. You have to factor in that the 360 was doing less than 100k per week just 2 weeks prior and I reckon that there might be some dip in 360 sales right before Black Friday in preparation for the unofficial price cuts/bundle freebies.
Click to expand...


or there could be a ramp up towards it instead ;)

which games were released that week, anyhow?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
davepoobond said:
week 1 - 250k
week 2 - 250k
week 3 (BF) - 310k
week 4 - 290k

=
1100k

i think its doable...perhaps its overshot by about 100k or so, but i think i'm willing to gamble with it. i may readjust later though.
Click to expand...
I think the fourth week is reasonable, and the third is a given, but the first two may be high. The 360's October sales rate averaged 91.5k per week. I think November sales do trend upwards going into Black Friday, I don't think they nearly triple as soon as November starts. I went with a 50% increase in my guesstimate.

Edit: papelnabangka FTW
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
davepoobond said:
week 1 - 250k
week 2 - 250k
week 3 (BF) - 310k
week 4 - 290k

=
1100k


i think its doable...perhaps its overshot by about 100k or so, but i think i'm willing to gamble with it. i may readjust later though.
Click to expand...


it's called black friday, not black november.

it's like madden being the official sign that it's ok to buy games once again, only so very much larger.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
i'm not even gonna chart in the yearly predictions, i haven't even consistently participated in them this year :p -- its really not of much consequence to me if i overshoot it horribly...
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
davepoobond said:
i'm not even gonna chart in the yearly predictions, i haven't even consistently participated in them this year :p -- its really not of much consequence to me if i overshoot it horribly...
Click to expand...


in that case, go for broke. 2 million wii, 3 million ds, 8 million ps3. believe.
 
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