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Official November 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

S

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
Stop It said:
[WII] 1,080,000
[NDS] 1,160,000
[360] 890,000
[PSP] 590,000
[PS3] 400,000
[PS2] 500,000
[GBA] 125,000
Click to expand...

NPD
Nintendo DS 1.53 million - 370k below
Wii 981K - 99k High
Xbox 360 770K - 120k High
PSP 567K -23k High
PlayStation 3 466K - 66k Below
PlayStation 2 496K - 4k High (So awesome)

Total, 682k off, but order was spot on, DS > Wii > 360 > PSP > PS2 > PS3, not terrible I suppose :)
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
NPD said:
PlayStation 2 496K
PlayStation 3 466K
PSP 567K
Xbox 360 770K
Wii 981K
Nintendo DS 1.53 million
Click to expand...

With all systems...

1. jgwhiteus - 242,000
2. nextgeneration - 273,000
3. doicare - 302,000
4. Soka - 306,000
5. zsidane - 308,000
6. mmxzero - 317,000
7. jjgames - 318,000
7. laserbeam - 318,000
9. RBH - 322,000
9. DayShallCome - 322,000
11. blitz64 - 326,000
12. Hammer24 - 354,000
13. Chumly - 356,000
14. amtentori - 364,000
15. Spiegel - 369,000
16. legend166 - 371,000
16. harSon - 371,000
16. Pachter - 371,000
19. Odysseus - 372,000
19. Hyllian - 372,000
21. schuelma - 376,000
21. Azuran - 376,000
23. boontje - 381,000
24. toxk_02 - 383,000
25. Wes - 386,000
26. Brakara - 389,000
27. Drensch - 392,000
28. CrisKre - 394,000
29. Nutter - 404,000
30. Koopakiller - 407,000
31. Strike - 414,000
32. Frankfurter - 422,000
33. botticus - 424,000
34. Addy_boy 85 - 432,000
34. dammitmattt - 432,000
36. Sho_Nuff82 - 435,000
36. Kenka - 435,000
38. Jube3 - 436,000
39. John Dunbar - 439,000
40. GAF Aggregate - 441,830
41. Orgen - 447,000
42. Billias - 454,000
43. angelfly - 456,000
44. fanduck - 457,000
45. Heidir - 459,000
46. RamzaIsCool - 464,000
47. Deadly Monk - 466,000
48. Des0lar - 470,000
49. AniHawk - 472,000
50. rostocker - 473,000
51. JoshuaJSlone - 479,000
52. Clever Pun - 482,000
53. womfalcs3 - 484,000
54. Psychotext - 487,000
55. Olaeh - 488,000
56. kefka2030 - 488,574
57. Cruceh - 490,000
58. argon - 502,000
59. goompapa - 506,000
60. Culex - 508,000
61. Copycat_Wannabe - 512,000
62. starship - 513,000
63. TheLegendary - 516,000
64. Flakster99 - 519,000
64. _Xenon_ - 519,000
66. DevelopmentArrested - 522,000
67. beermonkey@tehbias - 524,000
67. danwarb - 524,000
69. RevoDS - 525,000
70. PrivateWHudson - 527,000
71. jasonbay - 540,000
71. Jokeropia - 540,000
73. Adumaha - 542,000
74. Timedog - 544,000
74. andy_lhc - 544,000
76. Kurosaki Ichigo - 546,000
77. TheKurgan - 548,000
78. Vagabundo - 554,000
79. Ataru83 - 556,000
80. donny2112 - 558,000
80. RubberJohnny - 558,000
82. steverulez - 562,000
82. bry-bry - 562,000
84. BishopLamont - 568,000
84. siamesedreamer - 568,000
86. GhaleonEB - 569,000
86. stalker - 569,000
88. AlternativeUlster - 571,000
89. Ch Totoro - 573,000
90. Sviatoslav - 574,000
91. ICallItFutile - 576,310
92. Stopsign - 581,000
93. sonycowboy - 583,000
94. ComputerNerd - 588,000
94. devilscallmedad - 588,000
96. VALIS - 590,000
97. pooteeweet - 592,000
98. Penguin - 602,000
99. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 603,000
99. rhfb - 603,000
101. cvxfreak - 609,000
102. Oblivion - 612,000
103. roonow - 614,000
103. AirBrian - 614,000
103. oo Kosma oo - 614,000
106. Amarnath - 616,000
107. BuzzJive - 620,000
108. sionyboy - 625,000
109. radjago - 626,000
110. quadriplegicjon - 628,000
111. USD - 632,000
112. cress2000 - 634,000
113. frankthurk - 637,000
114. beerbelly - 638,000
115. Region-FreeWii - 640,000
116. Tempy - 642,000
117. Geoff9920 - 644,000
118. NeoUltima - 648,008
119. gollumsluvslave - 650,000
120. cyclonekruse - 650,274
121. turtle553 - 655,000
122. C4Lukins - 656,000
123. Agent Icebeezy - 658,000
123. perfectchaos007 - 658,000
123. itsgreen - 658,000
126. rage1973 - 660,000
126. Brak - 660,000
128. Fatghost - 661,000
129. RattleHead_ - 662,000
130. DeaconKnowledge - 664,000
130. Belgorim - 664,000
132. dude - 674,000
133. Farmboy - 677,000
134. Lobster - 678,000
135. duderon - 680,000
135. FieryBalrog - 680,000
137. Stop It - 682,000
137. Frillen - 682,000
139. jeremy70583 - 683,000
140. Jumpman23 - 694,000
141. felipeko - 695,000
141. VanMardigan - 695,000
143. Zapperkhan - 702,000
144. Armada - 708,000
145. cashman - 709,606
146. WrikaWrek - 712,000
147. Wii-za - 714,000
148. Ganondorf>Link - 716,000
149. pissmypants - 723,000
150. jandar - 732,000
151. Arsenic - 738,000
152. Anerythristic - 744,000
152. Kildace - 744,000
154. NomarTyme - 759,000
154. Pope Benedict XVI - 759,000
156. Rekwest - 760,000
157. Bildi - 761,000
158. besiktas1 - 762,000
159. gkrykewy - 763,000
160. natureman3 - 766,000
161. CitizenCope - 771,000
161. DefectiveReject - 771,000
163. Mariah Carey - 778,000
163. Phoenix 2.0 - 778,000
165. SPEA - 782,000
166. OliveJuice - 788,000
167. DeadGzuz - 790,000
168. Sindou_Hikaru20 - 802,000
169. 3rdman - 813,000
170. f_elz - 818,000
171. 2600 - 823,000
172. Earthstrike - 824,000
173. jey_16 - 826,000
174. Omikaru - 832,000
175. PhoenixDark - 838,000
176. N.A - 842,000
177. JMPovoa - 846,000
178. rikitikitik - 848,000
179. underfooter - 854,000
180. Man God - 858,000
181. _leech_ - 860,000
182. Provider - 869,000
183. mr_bishiuk - 870,000
184. Scotch - 876,000
185. kkg1701 - 884,000
186. AlteredBeast - 890,000
187. crimsonheadGCN - 896,000
188. Gadfly - 900,000
189. TwinIonEngines - 912,000
190. apujanata - 914,000
191. sinnergy - 920,000
192. Ydahs - 934,000
192. SuperBanjo - 934,000
194. Crusade - 950,000
195. *Guaran - 954,000
196. Linkup - 959,000
197. flipping_heck - 964,000
198. Thunder Monkey - 977,000
199. djtiesto - 998,000
200. Grecco - 1,010,000
201. Malleymal - 1,022,000
202. theSimExchange - 1,026,000
203. Sgt. Killjoy - 1,035,000
204. Bishman - 1,038,000
205. Nolan. - 1,045,000
206. WingM@n - 1,048,000
207. Insane Metal - 1,062,000
208. TaKeRx - 1,080,000
209. gentest29 - 1,100,000
210. Borys - 1,114,000
211. HocusPocus - 1,135,000
212. Touchdown - 1,175,000
213. ascii42 - 1,190,000
214. Crateman - 1,216,000
215. davepoobond - 1,242,000
216. Rocksteady33 - 1,258,000
217. Suburban Cowboy - 1,268,000
218. neojubei - 1,271,000
219. norinrad21 - 1,308,000
220. TwinsDad - 1,359,000
221. SIP YEK NOD - 1,388,000
222. Danthrax - 1,417,000
223. Hammerhai - 1,430,000
224. TJ Spyke - 1,527,000
225. AzureNightmareXE - 1,662,000
226. GameGamer - 1,725,000
227. DantesWrath - 2,006,000
228. The Experiment - 2,845,000
229. Kaako - 2,902,000

Excluding PS2 to give TSE the benefit of the doubt...

27. Pachter - 360,000
43. GAF Aggregate - 404,793
101. theSimExchange - 530,000
 
A

apujanata

Member
16. Pachter - 371,000
190. apujanata - 914,000
Click to expand...

My first thought is that I should commit seppuku.
My second thought is that I should try to prepare a better prediction.

Second thought win, so I will try to do better in December.

Cheesemeister,

How many person got the ordinal position right ? Or should I ask Donny2112 about this ?
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
#36, not bad.

NPD said:
Nintendo DS 1.53 million
Wii 981K
Xbox 360 770K
PSP 567K
PlayStation 3 466K
PlayStation 2 496K
Click to expand...

Me said:
[360] 770k
[GBA] 200K
[NDS] 1750K
[PS2] 550K
[PS3] 475K
[PSP] 600K
[WII]1100K
Click to expand...

Way too high on Wii and DS, right on the money for just about everything else. Nailed 360. :lol
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
Nintendo DS 1.53 million - 230k off (ouch)
Wii 981K - 69k off (not bad)
Xbox 360 770K - 100k off (bad)
PSP 567K - 37k off (good)
PlayStation 3 466K - 66k off (not bad)
PlayStation 2 496K - 11k off (very good)

I wanted to predict 1.4m for DS but I thought it would be so high. :lol
 
D

donny2112

Member
apujanata said:
How many person got the ordinal position right ?
Click to expand...

102. And once again, I failed to do so. I still haven't gotten the order correct once this year. This is really bugging me, now. :(

Points Totals for the Month/Quarter/Year

Code: 
     November 2007               Last 3 months                2007	
1.   jgwhiteus          141.68   rostocker           374.55   JoshuaJSlone        1,360.47
2.   nextgeneration     136.5    nextgeneration      374.18   argon               1,358.56
3.   Soka               133.58   beermonkey@tehbias  371.25   GhaleonEB           1,355.33
4.   doicare            133.16   Hammer24            366.7    BuzzJive            1,348.04
5.   zsidane            129.48   Brakara             362.88   Clever Pun          1,338.64
6.   mmxzero            127.62   argon               361.82   duderon             1,323.37
7.   DayShallCome       125.85   duderon             361.46   donny2112           1,322.73
8.   RBH                125.34   Zapperkhan          360.76   Heidir              1,305.21
9.   blitz64            123.41   doicare             360.73   Orgen               1,300.23
10.  Hammer24           122.43   RevoDS              360.12   rage1973            1,293.98
11.  Brakara            122.37   blitz64             359.49   Kurosaki Ichigo     1,283.26
12.  Odysseus           122.31   toxk_02             359.31   sonycowboy          1,239.69
13.  Orgen              121.83   Lobster             358.27   Jokeropia           1,224.10
14.  angelfly           121.3    Heidir              357.83   DayShallCome        1,200.95
15.  Pachter            121.15   Mariah Carey        357.77   TheKurgan           1,172.43
16.  Koopakiller        121.12   Sviatoslav          356.46   starship            1,169.65
17.  Sho_Nuff82         120.97   Region-FreeWii      355.68   Frankfurter         1,157.75
18.  Azuran             120.9    Orgen               354.67   AniHawk             1,144.79
19.  Addy_boy 85        120.83   Jokeropia           354.16   beermonkey@tehbias  1,137.96
20.  toxk_02            120.7    dammitmattt         352.5    PhoenixDark         1,113.51
21.  Drensch            120.47   RBH                 352.39   apujanata           1,100.96
22.  rostocker          120.14   botticus            352.39   djtiesto            1,087.35
23.  Ataru83            119.99   devilscallmedad     352      Bildi               1,069.75
24.  Wes                119.99   DayShallCome        350.4    Earthstrike         1,058.63
25.  siamesedreamer     119.94   GhaleonEB           349.7    Hammer24            1,049.74
26.  Billias            119.91   Sho_Nuff82          349.5    felipeko            1,047.89
27.  Frankfurter        119.78   BuzzJive            348.88   perfectchaos007     1,025.86
28.  Kenka              119.73   rage1973            348.71   rostocker             988.9
29.  womfalcs3          119.37   jjgames             348.14   Parl                  972.43
30.  DevelopmentArrested119.32   Clever Pun          347.98   Haunted One           967.39

Less than 6 points separate the top 3 with only one month left ...

Edit:

Analyst Comparison

Code: 
     November 2007               Last 3 Months                Since March 2007	
1.   GAF_Agg            93.02    GAF_Agg             269.58   GAF_spec            795.7
2.   GAF_spec           91.62    GAF_spec            267.29   GAF_Agg             795.06
3.   Pachter            91.59    simExchange         266.92   simExchange         783.8
4.   simExchange        87.8     Pachter             263.19   Pachter             758.04

AnalystCompare.png
 
D

doicare

Member
Cheesemeister said:
With all systems...

1. jgwhiteus - 242,000
2. nextgeneration - 273,000
3. doicare - 302,000
Click to expand...

Nice, when i saw i was off by over 300,000 i didn't think i'd make the top third of the league, let alone the top 3! Dang Ds and Ps2 is what threw me off, without those two i would have 'only' been 120,000 off.
 
L

legend166

Member
Man, I tied with Pachter? I couldn't even beat him by 1k? That sucks ;( Pretty happy with top 20 though. These were my predictions:


my predictions said:
[360] 780k
[GBA] 200k
[NDS] 1400k
[PS2] 380k
[PS3] 375k
[PSP] 590k
[WII] 980k
Click to expand...



PlayStation 2 496K
PlayStation 3 466K
PSP 567K
Xbox 360 770K
Wii 981K
Nintendo DS 1.53 million

I was basically spot on with the Wii and very close with the PSP, DS and 360. Underestimating the other Playstation consoles killed me. Who knew the PS2 would still be so popular?
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
I continue playing the role of X360; doing competently but losing ground fast.

I'm sure next month our predictions will have variance of many hundreds of thousands on DS, Wii, and X360.
 
P

PrivateWHudson

Member
I guess not too bad on my first time out:

70. PrivateWHudson - 527,000

ME NPD
[NDS] 1,375,000 | 1,530,000 | 155,000
[WII] 1,150,000 | 981,000 | 169,000
[360] 890,000 | 770,000 | 120,000
[PSP] 600,000 | 567,000 | 33,000
[PS2] 460,000 | 496,000 | 36,000
[PS3] 480,000 | 466,000 | 14,000
 
C

Chris R

Member
I actually didn't do that bad (cept that damn NDS and PSP)

ME NPD
[NDS] 1,300,000 | 1,530,000 | 230,000
[WII] 1,050,000 | 981,000 | 69,000
[360] 760,000 | 770,000 | 10,000
[PSP] 380,000 | 567,000 | 187,000
[PS2] 475,000 | 496,000 | 21,000
[PS3] 380,000 | 466,000 | 86,000

Almost dead on the 360 and PS2 :lol
 
J

jjgames

Member
Nice. Number 7 this month and 29th for the three month list.

I wonder if I can keep it up. Someday I hope to be like JoshuaJSlone argon, and GhaleonEB.
 
D

donny2112

Member
donny2112 said:
apujanata said:
How many person got the ordinal position right ?
Click to expand...

102. And once again, I failed to do so. I still haven't gotten the order correct once this year. This is really bugging me, now. :(
Click to expand...

Just for fun,
you know, fun like stabbing yourself in the eye
, I decided to take a look at the annual rankings if the ordinal position stuff wasn't counted.
I'd be third, behind JoshuaJSlone and argon, but within 8 points of #1.
:lol
 
A

apujanata

Member
donny2112 said:
Just for fun,
you know, fun like stabbing yourself in the eye
, I decided to take a look at the annual rankings if the ordinal position stuff wasn't counted.
I'd be third, behind JoshuaJSlone and argon, but within 8 points of #1.
:lol
Click to expand...

Poor donny. Your idea of fun is depressing. You need more Fire Emblem.
 
blitz64

blitz64

Member
Cheesemeister said:
With all systems...


11. blitz64 - 326,000
Click to expand...


I want patchers job....
I think this month was easier compared to last month. Next month will be hard to guess because of shortages..
 
J

jgwhiteus

Member
Cheesemeister said:
1. jgwhiteus - 242,000
Click to expand...

Yay - this month was kind of cheating though, since we already had data points from Microsoft and Nintendo. I agree that next month will be a lot harder.
 
R

rage1973

Member
Like many other DS numbers killed me.
December should be interesting especially the Wii numbers. I would be interested if Nintendo can raise supply from November to December but I highly doubt it. I figure Nintendo will be able to get out 1.2 million Wiis at the most allowing rest of the other home consoles to catch up and surpass it this month.
 
P

Parl

Member
I'm surprised to still be in the list for the whole year, having not made a prediction last month. I thought I'd sit last month's out. I'll probably be in the December one though.
 
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