• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Official September NPD SOFTWARE Prediction Thread - (SW Results in , winners pending)

D

donny2112

Member
JJConrad said:
Also, I'm a little puzzled that MySims DS is listed but not MySims Wii.
Click to expand...

Sims games sell much better on Nintendo handhelds than Nintendo consoles. Given a choice between MySims Wii and MySims DS, the DS version would, thus, be preferable. Also, MySims is EA's first real attempt at Nintendo-izing one of its IPs, so that'll be interesting to see the results of, as well. :)
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
donny2112 said:
Sims games sell much better on Nintendo handhelds than Nintendo consoles. Given a choice between MySims Wii and MySims DS, the DS version would, thus, be preferable. Also, MySims is EA's first real attempt at Nintendo-izing one of its IPs, so that'll be interesting to see the results of, as well. :)
Click to expand...

the wii version has been outselling it in the uk
 
J

jjgames

Member
[360 Bioshock] 142k
[360 Halo 3] 2300k
[360 Madden 08] 191k
[360 Stranglehold] 102k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 125k
[PS3 Warhawk] 76k
[PS2 Madden 08] 120k
[NDS MySims] 195k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 370k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 248k
 
C

Clever Pun

Member
[360 Bioshock] 135K
[360 Halo 3] 2880K
[360 Madden 08] 210K
[360 Stranglehold] 210K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 115K
[PS3 Warhawk] 100K
[PS2 Madden 08] 405K
[NDS MySims] 145K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 245K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 230K
 
B

BuzzJive

Member
[360 Bioshock] 111k
[360 Halo 3] 2442k
[360 Madden 08] 234k
[360 Stranglehold] 94k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 94k
[PS3 Warhawk] 67k
[PS2 Madden 08] 212k
[NDS MySims] 88k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 178k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 196k
 
D

devilscallmedad

Banned
[360 Bioshock] 270K
[360 Halo 3] 2900K
[360 Madden 08] 340K
[360 Stranglehold] 270K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 200K
[PS3 Warhawk] 110K
[PS3 Lair] 80K
[PS2 Madden 08] 270K
[NDS MySims] 100K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 265K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 250K
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
[360 Bioshock] 158k
[360 Halo 3] 2,931k
[360 Madden 08] 213k
[360 Stranglehold] 167k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 172k
[PS3 Warhawk] 110k
[PS2 Madden 08] 192k
[NDS MySims] 144k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 181k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 226k
 
Z

Zapperkhan

Member
[360 Bioshock] 230000
[360 Halo 3] 2950000
[360 Madden 08] 230000
[360 Stranglehold] 170000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 155000
[PS3 Warhawk] 115000
[PS2 Madden 08] 196000
[NDS MySims] 90000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 200000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 228000

I wonder where Orange Box will be in the final results. If we could only get steam numbers ><
 
M

m14

Member
[360 Bioshock] 150k
[360 Halo 3] 3.000k
[360 Madden 08] 400k
[360 Stranglehold] 170k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 60k
[PS3 Warhawk] 55k
[PS2 Madden 08] 250k
[NDS MySims] 95k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 100k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 85k
 
Z

zsidane

Member
[360 Bioshock] 270000
[360 Halo 3] 2850000
[360 Madden 08] 290000
[360 Stranglehold] 195000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 158000
[PS3 Warhawk] 50000
[PS2 Madden 08] 310000
[NDS MySims] 190000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 320000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 235000
 
B

Brakara

Member
[360 Bioshock] 150k
[360 Halo 3] 2500k
[360 Madden 08] 250k
[360 Stranglehold] 150k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 125k
[PS3 Warhawk] 100k
[PS2 Madden 08] 300k
[NDS MySims] 200k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 400k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 200k
 
T

theguy

Member
sonycowboy said:
Because, we could easily end up with people posting games they simply want to know the sales of. We'd end up with > 100 titles among hundreds of folks and NPD isn't going to release that much info. From the contest side, if the number isn't revealed, the points distribution would be all screwed up. We'd have to give zero points even if you were dead on.

The number and consistency of titles will vary from heavy months like November/December, to regular months, and there may be slow months that coming up with 10 titles will be quite tricky.

In any case, this is a bit of a trial run for next month. In November, you end up with dozens of titles over 100k and in December, there are traditionally > 100 titles over 100k.
Click to expand...


I'm working with NPD Games to come up with a viable compromise that we can provide to sonycowboy/neogaf. We can't give it all away but we'll figure out something.

I like that neogaf is going to be doing this on a regular basis. It will be nice to see more prediction models out there. Maybe gaffers will be the ones to finally provide something that's reliable and consistent?

Oct/Nov/Dec are the busiest months in this industry. Keep this in mind when predicting.

This isn't my bag. Actually, I suck at it but one thing's for sure, I agree with those who have predicted Halo 3 sales at 2.8M and above. MSFT said there were something like 1.6M pre-orders which, in theory, would shoot the total above 3M for the first couple of weeks. That is, if the marketing and PR that surrounded this monster live up to expectations. Am I being too optimistic? I hope not.

The 360 hardware has me stumped but that's for a different thread.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
driley said:
This isn't my bag. Actually, I suck at it but one thing's for sure, I agree with those who have predicted Halo 3 sales at 2.8M and above. MSFT said there were something like 1.6M pre-orders which, in theory, would shoot the total above 3M for the first couple of weeks. That is, if the marketing and PR that surrounded this monster live up to expectations. Am I being too optimistic? I hope not.
Click to expand...
One data point - Bungie said they had over 2.5m unique players on Live in the first couple of days alone. That would be the WW total, but not everyone is on Live and there was over a full week of sales on top of it. Could be indication of sales in the ~2.5-3m range.
 
S

soul creator

Member
[360 Bioshock] 200K
[360 Halo 3] 3000K
[360 Madden 08] 300K
[360 Stranglehold] 100K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 125K
[PS3 Warhawk] 100K
[PS2 Madden 08] 225K
[NDS MySims] 80K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 300K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 250K
 
T

theguy

Member
Adjusted to fit format

[360 Bioshock] 100K
[360 Halo 3] 3250K
[360 Madden 08] 220K
[360 Stranglehold] 120K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 110K
[PS3 Warhawk] 70K
[PS2 Madden 08] 350K
[NDS MySims] 80K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 250K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 150K
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
driley said:
What the hell. I'm going to play along

360 Bioshock = 100,000
360 Halo 3 = 3,300,000
360 Madden 08 = 220,000
360 Stranglehold = 120,000
PS3 Heavenly Sword = 110,000
PS3 Warhawk = 70,000
PS2 Madden 08 = 350,000
NDS MySims = 80,000
NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass = 250,000
WII Metroid Prime 3 = 150,000
Click to expand...

You're doing it wrong.
 
T

theguy

Member
GhaleonEB said:
One data point - Bungie said they had over 2.5m unique players on Live in the first couple of days alone. That would be the WW total, but not everyone is on Live and there was over a full week of sales on top of it. Could be indication of sales in the ~2.5-3m range.
Click to expand...

Question: Do you know if this includes subscriers that actually played Halo 3 campaigns online, or if it includes Halo 3 gamers that happened to be on Live but didn't play multi-player campaigns?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
driley said:
Question: Do you know if this includes subscriers that actually played Halo 3 campaigns online, or if it includes Halo 3 gamers that happened to be on Live but didn't play multi-player campaigns?
Click to expand...
It's both campaign and MP, even SP campaign.
 
R

radjago

Member
I can guess too.

[360 Bioshock] 125K
[360 Halo 3] 3200K
[360 Madden 08] 200K
[360 Stranglehold] 130K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 105K
[PS3 Warhawk] 65K
[PS2 Madden 08] 320K
[NDS MySims] 90K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 300K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 110K
 
D

donny2112

Member
driley said:
Adjusted to fit format
Click to expand...

Thank you! :)

From a cursory glance, I think the only person who hasn't followed the format so far is Lobster. He only forgot to put a space between the game title and prediction, though.
 
O

Orgen

Member
[360 Bioshock] 284,000
[360 Halo 3] 2,985,000
[360 Madden 08] 461,000
[360 Stranglehold] 257,000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 146,000
[PS3 Warhawk] 93,000
[PS2 Madden 08] 398,000
[NDS MySims] 115,000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 304,000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 312,000
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
donny2112 said:
From a cursory glance, I think the only person who hasn't followed the format so far is Lobster. He only forgot to put a space between the game title and prediction, though.
Click to expand...

That should be okay. Once the tag is removed from the string, the white space is trimmed from either end of the line.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Cheesemeister said:
That should be okay. Once the tag is removed from the string, the white space is trimmed from either end of the line.
Click to expand...

I did find that devilscallmedad tried to sneak in an extra prediction, though. :lol
 
D

DayShallCome

Member
[360 Bioshock] 130k
[360 Halo 3] 3100k
[360 Madden 08] 200k
[360 Stranglehold] 145k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 100k
[PS3 Warhawk] 48k
[PS2 Madden 08] 160k
[NDS MySims] 135k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 220k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 240k
 
D

donny2112

Member
Statistics

# of entrants: 52 (very good for a first month and in only 18 hours!)

Didn't follow the format?
m14 put 3.000K for Halo 3.
I was wondering why someone predicted 3 units for Halo 3. :lol
I fixed it this time, but next month, if we use the parser, it probably wouldn't be fixed.
Lobster didn't put a space after his predictions, though Cheesemeister said that a parser would be able to read that.

NeoGAF average predictions: (rounded to nearest 1K)

Code: 
Title                         Average

360 Halo 3                  2,831,000
PS2 Madden 08                 274,000
NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass  274,000
360 Madden 08                 263,000
WII Metroid Prime 3           213,000
360 Bioshock                  171,000
360 Stranglehold              165,000
PS3 Heavenly Sword            137,000
NDS MySims                    127,000
PS3 Warhawk                    88,000


If the NeoGAF average were correct, this would be the ranking of the top ten.

September 2007 Top Ten (compared to NeoGAF average)

1. speculawyer - 88.15
2. beermonkey@tehbias - 87.89
3. andy_lhc - 83.51
4. sonycowboy - 83.49
5. rakka - 82.99
6. frankthurk - 82.80
7. kefka2030 - 82.63
8. rostocker - 82.37
9. JCBossman - 82.30
10. Brakara - 81.99
 
G

Ganondorf>Link

Member
[360 Halo 3] 3,000,000
[360 BioShock] 240,000
[360 Stranglehold] 260,000
[360 Madden NFL 08] 215,00
[PS2 Madden NFL 08] 189,000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 180,000
[WII Wii Play] 280,000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 262,000
[DS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 220,000
[DS Brain Age 2] 160,000
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Actual Results: (Poor Warhawk :( )

[360 Bioshock] - All Editions = 150K
[360 Halo 3] - All Editions = 3.3M
[360 Madden 08] = 173K
[360 Stranglehold] = 104.2K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] = 139K
[PS3 Warhawk] = 45K
[PS2 Madden 08] = 205K
[NDS MySims] = 92.4K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] = 223.7K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] = 167.4K
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Warhawk didn't "bomb" that hard. I reckon most bought it online. But it's not the system saver some made it out to be.

Strangelhold bombed, though. There goes that $30M down the drain.
 
K

Kujo

Member
Warhawk sold 58.6K last month, so that's 103.6K total. Do we have the numbers for how many sold over PSN?
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
Well, the PS3 version of Stranglehold certainly won't fare any better. Is it the first big-budget bomb of the HD gen, or is there some other game I'm not thinking of?
 
D

donny2112

Member
Code: 
     September 2007
1.   dammitmattt        79.16
2.   DayShallCome       77.8
3.   BuzzJive           77.6
4.   RBH                75.8
5.   radjago            74.39
6.   driley             74.01
7.   rostocker          72.45
8.   FieryBalrog        70.65
9.   andy_lhc           68.85
10.  shagg_187          68.7
11.  kefka2030          68.6
12.  tetsuoxb           68.42
13.  Zapperkhan         67.47
14.  Chumly             67.23
15.  soul creator       66.34
16.  sonycowboy         66.01
17.  GhaleonEB          65.65
18.  TwinIonEngines     64.78
19.  GAF Average        64.36
20.  Hammer24           64.16
21.  titiklabingapat    63.95
22.  Son of Godzilla    63.28
23.  m14                61.94
24.  jjgames            61.79
25.  JCBossman          61.67
26.  frankthurk         61.66
27.  Sindou_Hikaru20    61.62
28.  Nuclear Muffin     60.12
29.  rakka              60.01
30.  Sviatoslav         59.86
31.  speculawyer        57.95
32.  legend166          57.89
33.  Mojo               57.82
34.  beermonkey@tehbias 57.68
35.  Barnolde           57.34
36.  I AM JOHN!         55.47
37.  TheSmokingManX     53.95
38.  Clever Pun         53.72
39.  nextgeneration     53.39
40.  Brakara            53.26
41.  donny2112          52.86
42.  JJConrad           52.54
43.  Hyllian            50.39
44.  zsidane            49.22
45.  Flakster99         48.75
46.  Belgorim           46.84
47.  devilscallmedad    45.97
48.  davepoobond        45.57
49.  Earthstrike        44.84
50.  The M.O.B          44.53
51.  rikitikitik        43
52.  Orgen              35.52
53.  Lobster            33.95

Congratulations, dammitmatt! :D

Dang, we sucked. With this only being out of 100 points, you can basically look at this like a percentage for a school grade. Nobody got an A or B.

This is only using the percentage of unit sales * 10 points for a possible total of 100 points.

Thanks, sonycowboy, for the numbers! :)
 
S

speculawyer

Member
donny2112 said:
If the NeoGAF average were correct, this would be the ranking of the top ten.
September 2007 Top Ten (compared to NeoGAF average)
1. speculawyer - 88.15
2. beermonkey@tehbias - 87.89
3. andy_lhc - 83.51
4. sonycowboy - 83.49
5. rakka - 82.99
6. frankthurk - 82.80
7. kefka2030 - 82.63
8. rostocker - 82.37
9. JCBossman - 82.30
10. Brakara - 81.99
Click to expand...

Actual results
19. GAF Average 64.36
20. Hammer24 64.16
21. titiklabingapat 63.95
22. Son of Godzilla 63.28
23. m14 61.94
24. jjgames 61.79
25. JCBossman 61.67
26. frankthurk 61.66
27. Sindou_Hikaru20 61.62
28. Nuclear Muffin 60.12
29. rakka 60.01
30. Sviatoslav 59.86
31. speculawyer 57.95
Click to expand...

Weird . . . I was closest to the GAF average but the average kicked my ass in the real results. How does that work? I guess all the people above me were off from the average in the right direction.
 
D

donny2112

Member
speculawyer said:
Weird . . . I was closest to the GAF average but the average kicked my ass in the real results. How does that work?
Click to expand...

It's just the way the numbers came out. If you were always on one side of the GAF average, you could figure that 57.95/64.36 = 90% ~= 88%. However, you oscillated around the GAF average, so the numbers just happened to work out this way.

I'm looking forward to seeing how much we improve for next month's results. :D
 
R

rakka

Member
predicted too high for bioshock, madden, warhawk, prime 3 :(
lowballed halo 3, phantom hourglass :(
spot on or very close with mysims, heavenly sword
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Circana (NPD) September 2023: #1 Starfield #2 Mortal Kombat 1 #3 EA FC24; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, XBS #2 Units + Revenue
Sales-Age 7 8 9 10 11
526
38K
Thick Thighs Save Lives replied
Circana (NPD) Full Year Software Top 20 Results from 1995 to 2022 (Ranked by Revenue)
Sales-Age
16
2K
onQ123 replied
[GI.biz] Analysts offer predictions for 2023 in games
16
3K
Magic Carpet replied
Don’t Listen to the Naysayers Switch 2 release is NEAR
2 3 4
197
16K
WhiteWaterM00se replied
Did anyone else think that the Nintendo Wii was going to be the best selling console ever back then?
39
4K
Eddie-Griffin replied
Top Bottom