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No there isn't and this is a delusion I've seen repeated by others in this thread. Revenue is higher, possibly releases as well due to experience and more templates to help developers release games at various budgets or shovelware.

But in units VR is smaller, and more concentrated to a single player than before. Any recent report is comparing VR headsets excluding mobileVR, if you go back to reports where MobileVR was reported it's clear that VR in general is smaller now than in 2016 in units. Which explains the low projections for this year and otherwise in the report.

Samsung MobileVR and PSVR1 combined cover Quest 1 and Quest 2 sales, and some others. Add in the other mobile VR headsets, the other PCVR headsets of the time, and some of those niche stand alones and you end up with a bigger market.

Currently, there are less players in the market now, and most of the MobileVR part of the industry is extinct. Samsung may have held it up as it did on the tail end if they were still on it, but Oculus pulling out support to focus on their own stuff killed that.

There will be more players coming next year within the months around Sony's PSVR2 launch that many including yourself aren't considering, however there will still be less players, and as of now Quest takes up 76%, soon more after this holiday likely, of VR sales. The situation now is entirely different.

How many casuals are going to drop $1050 for PSVR 2 and a PS5? How many of the few who brought PS5's are going to spend $50 more than a PS5 for PSVR to play what exactly? The most popular VR games since this new generation VR 2.0 launch in 2015 are almost all on the Quest 2.



Except it is, because the money is worth less now, so you're actually paying with inflation more for the full headset.

Even if you ignore the economy it's still wrong because Move wasn't required to use it. But you can't ignore it because as inflation got worse over the last two years we are starting to see reports of changes and slower sales. This goes double internationally where the pain will be double on the wallet. Just for the PS5, not even including the PSVR 2 yet.



It's not an opinion, you're just not using your head.

The niche fondness of Astrobot or even Half-Life Alyx is noted but completely irrelevant in terms of how many general buyers they attract and how many headsets they moved, which for neither was nothing significant. What ended up moving many PSVR's was Beat Saber, not Astrobot.

Yes, a good experience can sell VR headsets, but neither of these two games reached out to a wider audience and convinced them to buy in any significant number.



You can't say (proof) that there will be "many" BC updates to titles, and then admit also that Sony write-off BC 100% off the bat.

 

[FrankWza]

They wrote off Native BC support because they didn't want to put the expense in for making PSVR2 compatible with PSVR1.

Unnecessary expense that would lead to a higher price.

Those are good experience for some audiences and gamers, not what's needed to sell headsets.

Games? What did the PSVR have that moved units?

PSVR2 could be launching with Horizon, Astrobot 2, and Alyx and it wouldn't make much difference.

Alyx wouldn’t be first party. Add GT7 into that and you’ll move some units. Also, there doesn’t necessarily need to be an existing franchise or even one that is currently active.

Prices are rising regardless.

These aren’t perishables or necessity items. They drop in price and can be used for years, sold or traded and be purchased later after a price drop.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Unnecessary expense that would lead to a higher price.

Higher price on what? Hardware is not impacted by the software of PSVR1, and the games already cost more.

Games? What did the PSVR have that moved units?

That was my point.

Alyx wouldn’t be first party

Never said it was, you're mixing up posts.

Add GT7 into that and you’ll move some units.

Unlikely.

These aren’t perishables or necessity items.

Which is why general audiences will go after the cheaper model if it can do what it's looking for and had some quality to it. Which resulted in Quest 2 expecting to sell 20 million or more by years end.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

No I don't. It's now harder for people to buy what they could and afford what they could 5 years ago today. The dollar is worth LESS. Inflation is outpacing wages, a 5% raise in 8% inflation is a -3%. Prices are rising regardless.

That’s not how it works.

The cost was $499 for the entire set up in 2016, which is the equivalent of $619 today

You can argue wages haven’t gone up as much, but they don’t have to. At worst, it’s launching at a similar price

 

[FalsettoVibe]

Good games with broad appeal.

Do you think people are buying the Quest 2 in large number because there aren't some good games on the platform?

You are asking for my opinion asking the wrong questions because you aren't getting the problem, you need to be asking why Astrobot, or Alyx, or some other decent quality games didn't move as many headsets than the top 10 best selling VR games. It has nothing to do with my opinion those games objectively did not get people to come over and move a significant amount of headsets.

Wed have evidence already those didn't work, so now you need to figure out why the other games that helped the Quest 2 take off (and 1) worked where those didn't. When you find that out you have your answer for what Sony and other companies need to do.

So let me see if I can narrow down what you are trying to say here.....
You are saying that PSVR 2 will not be successful unless it can garner a "general/casual audience" similar to that of the Quest 2. You are not the one who determines success but anyway, I'll play along.

Here is one of the flaws in your argument. You are comparing a $400 standalone headset that by nature of price alone will appeal to individuals looking for games that appeal to them. (general/casual audience)
It is not fair to base PSVR 2's success (a device to which in the "general audience's" eyes costs upwards of $1000 dollars to enter) off of what people who buy a Quest 2(not Quest + PC) want to play. Both are VR headsets but obviously,
based on entry price alone, the audience is going to be slightly different.

In order for PSVR 2 to grab this "general audience" it's going to have two things.......a really good price and general/casual games. In the context of who you are talking about, price more than likely excludes them. As far as games are
concerned, I have full confidence that there will not be many Quest games that will not exist on PSVR2. So that wont be an issue.

As for what games are moving headsets, how do you know? What metrics to do have to say what games people are buying VR headsets for? And it's not fair to use Astrobot and Alyx as "examples" of games that don't move
VR headsets when at release they both had higher price entry points and Astro's popularity was not what it is now.

In the end its not that "games with broad appeal" will not exist on PSVR 2, because they absolutely will. It will have those and the bonus of having one of the best videogame publishers in the world behind it. Give it a chance to release
and get some games out before you shoot it down.......

In my opinion all of these VR headsets boost each other and help to widen the VR market in general. They don't all have to 100% offer the same thing to be a success.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

That’s not how it works.

The cost was $499 for the entire set up in 2016, which is the equivalent of $619 today

You can argue wages haven’t gone up as much, but they don’t have to. At worst, it’s launching at a similar price

Yeah, I'm going to go with the analysts on this one who keep talking about how people are spending less who have careers in economics.

People aren't paying "less" for the PSVR2 than the PSVR1, especially since Move wasn't a requirement anyway and you completely dodged that multiple times.

So let me see if I can narrow down what you are trying to say here.....
You are saying that PSVR 2 will not be successful unless it can garner a "general/casual audience" similar to that of the Quest 2. You are not the one who determines success but anyway, I'll play along.

Saying I am not the one who determines success, when a fact is presented to you makes you look crazy.

Yes, they do need that audience to sell headsets, especially the "more than PSVR 1" some people here expect. You can't dismiss a clear fact. Good luck to Sony selling many headsets without them. .

Btw, I said they need causal and general audiences period, doesn't have to be the exact audience of the Quest 2 though there will be overlap.

Here is one of the flaws in your argument. You are comparing a $400 standalone headset that by nature of price alone will appeal to individuals looking for games that appeal to them. (general/casual audience)
It is not fair to base PSVR 2's success (a device to which in the "general audience's" eyes costs upwards of $1000 dollars to enter) off of what people who buy a Quest 2(not Quest + PC) want to play. Both are VR headsets but obviously,
based on entry price alone, the audience is going to be slightly different.

No, this is a flaw in your argument. I'm not comparing anything, I said they need to attract casual and general audiences. Price is only part of the reason why the Quest is selling as much, the PSVR2 isn't even that far a leap from it, it's wireless, the early best sellers or most of them in ALL of VR are on the system, that's why Quest 2 sold as much as it did. .

You are also trying to argue that the audiences will be different which is irrelevant. You don't sell high millions of headsets without that audience period. There's clearly expensive when making the headset, with low margins, you are basically making the argument that if they can't get the audience they will be happy to take the loss as long as they satisfy a niche audience with the few headsets they sale. Which if anything shows you don't support the company at all.

As for what games are moving headsets, how do you know? What metrics to do have to say what games people are buying VR headsets for? And it's not fair to use Astrobot and Alyx as "examples" of games that don't move
VR headsets when at release they both had higher price entry points and Astro's popularity was not what it is now.

What nonsense is this, I KNOW because we don't see million(s) of Index and PSVR 1 flying off the sales because of those two releases. if you read the context of the thread before posting you would see (and also in other threads) users constantly bringing up Astrobot and Alyx as high quality games that can sell many many headsets, except we know already they can't and didn't. So yes it is fair.

Bottom sentence is you hoping for something, but it's not guaranteed.

In my opinion all of these VR headsets boost each other and help to widen the VR market in general.

I guess if you ignore market share this opinion makes sense. As well as MobileVR being ignored like everyone else keeps doing for some reason.

In the end its not that "games with broad appeal" will not exist on PSVR 2, because they absolutely will. It will have those and the bonus of having one of the best videogame publishers in the world behind it. Give it a chance to release
and get some games out before you shoot it down........

You do realize that quality games can have broad appeal right not just shovelware? There are games that won't be on PSVR2, or will be but will be close or just as good on a cheaper headset. Sony is going to need broadly appealing exclusives to get the audience THEY NEED to buy the headsets which you don't seem to be understanding. The line-up right now for launch isn't looking good and as you admitted somewhat price is a factor too.

Also assuming the best video game publishers in the world will be behind it based off nothing is one thing, but the clear implication you are giving they are going to put their ALL into supporting is another bizarre belief entirely. That was the issue with the first PSVR1 and the other headsets now. But I heard this with PSVR 1 too, nothing your saying is new.

It's just another attempt to pretend everything is all good and there aren't any cards stacked against them and not any flaws or issue that need to be addressed. You need to do both, as does Sony. With the many headsets coming they need to get into gear,

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Yeah, I'm going to go with the analysts on this one who keep talking about how people are spending less who have careers in economics.

People aren’t spending less on gaming

PS5s sell out instantly despite more supply

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

People aren’t spending less on gaming

PS5s sell out instantly despite more supply

That doesn't mean people are spending less on "gaming" that means people are still buying PS5's and Series X.

In either case you took that quote out of context, point is PSVR2 for various reasons btw, is not likely to sell 2 million headsets in a month, and this forecast is unlikely to be conservative based on evidence, but it's all opinion for everyone although I think ignoring the negative factors isn't a good idea.

 

[Stealth_Cobra]

Yeah sure, all those people that spent like 800 bucks on the console , 2K on a 4Ktv and are barely able to afford 90 bucks games in a worldwide post-covid / ukraine war recession where they can barely afford groceries are all going to jump on board an expensive VR headset that's not backwards compatible, won't work on PC, and probably won't get any proper support by Sony one year after launch ,because we're apparently all dying to play VR even though pretty much everyone I know kinda agree VR is a six year old fad that didn't really prove a viable alternative over classic couch and controller gaming, plus it makes tons of people puke after extended sessions.

Keep drinking the Kool Aid analysts.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

Yeah, I'm going to go with the analysts on this one who keep talking about how people are spending less who have careers in economics.

People aren't paying "less" for the PSVR2 than the PSVR1, especially since Move wasn't a requirement anyway and you completely dodged that multiple times.



Saying I am not the one who determines success, when a fact is presented to you makes you look crazy.

Yes, they do need that audience to sell headsets, especially the "more than PSVR 1" some people here expect. You can't dismiss a clear fact. Good luck to Sony selling many headsets without them. .

Btw, I said they need causal and general audiences period, doesn't have to be the exact audience of the Quest 2 though there will be overlap.



No, this is a flaw in your argument. I'm not comparing anything, I said they need to attract casual and general audiences. Price is only part of the reason why the Quest is selling as much, the PSVR2 isn't even that far a leap from it, it's wireless, the early best sellers or most of them in ALL of VR are on the system, that's why Quest 2 sold as much as it did. .

You are also trying to argue that the audiences will be different which is irrelevant. You don't sell high millions of headsets without that audience period. There's clearly expensive when making the headset, with low margins, you are basically making the argument that if they can't get the audience they will be happy to take the loss as long as they satisfy a niche audience with the few headsets they sale. Which if anything shows you don't support the company at all.



What nonsense is this, I KNOW because we don't see million(s) of Index and PSVR 1 flying off the sales because of those two releases. if you read the context of the thread before posting you would see (and also in other threads) users constantly bringing up Astrobot and Alyx as high quality games that can sell many many headsets, except we know already they can't and didn't. So yes it is fair.

Bottom sentence is you hoping for something, but it's not guaranteed.



I guess if you ignore market share this opinion makes sense. As well as MobileVR being ignored like everyone else keeps doing for some reason.



You do realize that quality games can have broad appeal right not just shovelware? There are games that won't be on PSVR2, or will be but will be close or just as good on a cheaper headset. Sony is going to need broadly appealing exclusives to get the audience THEY NEED to buy the headsets which you don't seem to be understanding. The line-up right now for launch isn't looking good and as you admitted somewhat price is a factor too.

Also assuming the best video game publishers in the world will be behind it based off nothing is one thing, but the clear implication you are giving they are going to put their ALL into supporting is another bizarre belief entirely. That was the issue with the first PSVR1 and the other headsets now. But I heard this with PSVR 1 too, nothing your saying is new.

It's just another attempt to pretend everything is all good and there aren't any cards stacked against them and not any flaws or issue that need to be addressed. You need to do both, as does Sony. With the many headsets coming they need to get into gear,

Cool story, but I'm not even gonna bother..........You've made your mind up and clearly take a certain stance. Besides I don't feel like reading another wall of disjointed nonsense, so let's just agree to disagree and move on.
I'm waiting for release and hoping for the best. I'll take a look at this thread a year from now for giggles. Adios.

 

[FrankWza]

Higher price on what?

On native support. You said it yourself:

They wrote off Native BC support because they didn't want to put the expense in for making PSVR2 compatible with PSVR1.

That was my point.

It was? It looked like you were saying only some people want games and more games, like Sony franchise games, don’t matter

Never said it was, you're mixing up posts.

But I said 2-3 first party games. You mentioned alyx

Unlikely

You don’t think there are GT7 players around the world that aren’t waiting for VR support? Something that will improve FOV and could eliminate the need for monitors attached to a rig and make for the most immersive experience possible? Wow

Which is why general audiences will go after the cheaper model if it can do what it's looking for and had some quality to it. Which resulted in Quest 2 expecting to sell 20 million or more by years end.

it doesn’t play PlayStation games.
Sony wants to sell VR headsets to PS5 owners first. If someone wants to buy into VR and spend $1000 on that experience just for VR they will now be a customer that can spend money on other PS games and services. But their main target is PS5 owners or people who were always planning to get a PS5

 

[SLB1904]

That doesn't mean people are spending less on "gaming" that means people are still buying PS5's .

Fixed

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Cool story, but I'm not even gonna bother..........You've made your mind up

No you made your mind up, and won't consider any factors, and misread the context of some of the stuff you thought you were addressing.

If you have any belief in your own positions than speak on it, instead you can't even back up your own positions and made mistakes reading mine. Or just post gifs instead I guess, not very substantive though.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

But I said 2-3 first party games.

I never said Alyx is a first party game, I said this late time too. Not sure why you keep ignoring the original post, it wasn't talking about first party I was saying that it WOULDN'T matter if it launched with the 3 games I mentioned if they can't reach the right audiences with those games.

It was? It looked like you were saying

Got to read the conversation to see what was said.

You don’t think there are GT7 players around the world that aren’t waiting for VR support? Something that will improve FOV and could eliminate the need for monitors attached to a rig and make for the most immersive experience possible? Wow

The issue is more you think GT7 would help sell millions of PSVR2 headsets. I never said anything about GT7 players "not" waiting for VR support and not sure how you even got that. The conversations has been about moving headsets the whole time

it doesn’t play PlayStation games.
Sony wants to sell VR headsets to PS5 owners first. If someone wants to buy into VR and spend $1000 on that experience just for VR they will now be a customer that can spend money on other PS games and services. But their main target is PS5 owners or people who were always planning to get a PS5

Sony wants to be competitive, and to grow PSVR2 to expand VR. You're arguing they are purposefully aiming for a niche for a costly headset with low margins which doesn't make sense.

Sony sold 5 million PSVR1 trying to make PS4 the place to be for VR gaming in general, not just for hardcore or well-off gamers. Sony wouldn't be producing 2 million head sets to sell over time if they were just aiming at the group you're referring to.

 

[FrankWza]

I never said Alyx is a first party game

Yes I’m saying I made the comment about first party. I’m expecting first party support for PSVR2 in a bigger way than PSVR1. Alyx would be a nice port of course but to me at least, Sony needs to and I expect them to come through with their heavy hitter franchises like GT

The issue is more you think GT7 would help sell millions of PSVR2 headsets.

It doesn’t need to sell millions on its own to be impactful to the overall numbers that Sony is expecting and to eclipse PSVR1. If it helps sell 250,000-500,000, that will be 5-10% of PSVR1 sales. Now imagine a similar VR representation from other Sony first party and multiply that number and you’re cooking. PSVR1 was experimental in a lot of ways and really should have flopped. I don’t think they’re expecting to sell 20 million of these. I think 7-8.5 depending on how long the generation lasts.

Sony wants to be competitive, and to grow PSVR2 to expand VR. You're arguing they are purposefully aiming for a niche for a costly headset with low margins which doesn't make sense.

Sony sold 5 million PSVR1 trying to make PS4 the place to be for VR gaming in general, not just for hardcore or well-off gamers. Sony wouldn't be producing 2 million head sets to sell over time if they were just aiming at the group you're referring to.

I could swear I saw that they have an order but that it is amendable if initial sales are lower than expected. ordering 2 million in this climate could also be a way to guarantee the hardware if necessary, but they have the clout to make a deal where they can change on the fly. I know they want to grow, but their first and easier customer is the one who already bought or is planning to buy into the PS5. People who spend a grand on just VR are welcome impulse buyers or bigger spenders who will have no problem buying other products and services.

 

[SportsFan581]

That’s not how it works.

The cost was $499 for the entire set up in 2016, which is the equivalent of $619 today

You can argue wages haven’t gone up as much, but they don’t have to. At worst, it’s launching at a similar price

I think you are missing the point of what he is saying. If inflation outpaces wage increases that reduces the amount of dollars buyers have available for discretionary spending. Which of course magnifies the effects of price increases.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I think you are missing the point of what he is saying. If inflation outpaces wage increases that reduces the amount of dollars buyers have available for discretionary spending. Which of course magnifies the effects of price increases.

I am not missing that point.

Wage increases have kept up to a certain degree. That's why I said, worst case, it's a wash.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

It doesn’t need to sell millions on its own to be impactful to the overall numbers that Sony is expecting and to eclipse PSVR1. If it helps sell 250,000-500,000, that will be 5-10% of PSVR1 sales.

I'm still not sure that audience exists for GT7 for the price of entry of VR (or those who haven't got/found a PS5 yet who will have to pay double) and it seems Sony hasn't made this feature yet so it must not be high priority for them.

I don’t think they’re expecting to sell 20 million of these. I think 7-8.5 depending on how long the generation lasts.

Some people here think 10-20 million. Which is why I bring up some of the negative factors that will prevent that from happening.

I am not missing that point.

Wage increases have kept up to a certain degree. That's why I said, worst case, it's a wash.

No they haven't. It's also clear to me you are falling for the adjusted "percentage" propaganda regarding inflation as well, when it's actually much worse than they say which is consensus across all credible professionals.

You continuing to dodge PSVR1 didn't need move aside, regardless saying that PSVR2 costs "the same" is just not accurate.

 

[Crayon]

Some people here think 10-20 million. Which is why I bring up some of the negative factors that will prevent that from happening.

Oof, who is thinking 20? That's like 1 in 5, maybe better, ps5 owners going in by the end of the gen. 10 would be a big success and that seems like it would take a great library and some fantastic promotions and marketing. Is 15 milliopn quest 2 sales the standard you are holding it to for success?

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Oof, who is thinking 20? That's like 1 in 5, maybe better, ps5 owners going in by the end of the gen. 10 would be a big success and that seems like it would take a great library and some fantastic promotions and marketing. Is 15 milliopn quest 2 sales the standard you are holding it to for success?

You quote me saying OTHER people said 20 and you are asking ME if I am holding it to the success of Quest 2?

Even 10 has been thrown around here in this thread, and others, or "much much more" than PSVR1. These individuals are NOT looking at both the flaws and benefits to the hardware, the benefits imo do not come close to overwriting all the flaws, which is why I believe this high numbers are unlikely.

Some thing it will sell two million in a few weeks. That would make it the best selling headset launch windows and the fastest selling headset ever. If Quest 2 couldn't pull that off from the jump than I find that very hard to believe the PSVR2 could do it even with a much 6better launch line up and a price drop to $499 right before launch in feb.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

No they haven't. It's also clear to me you are falling for the adjusted "percentage" propaganda regarding inflation as well, when it's actually much worse than they say which is consensus across all credible professionals.

You continuing to dodge PSVR1 didn't need move aside, regardless saying that PSVR2 costs "the same" is just not accurate.

Inflation can be understated and the price can still be relatively cheaper when accounting for wage growth. PSVR1 did mostly require a move controller for many of the games.

The bottom line is the price ISN'T much different from 2016 when factoring everything else together. It's roughly the same when adjusting for inflation. The enthusiast market has grown since 2016 and the people buying PSVR2 will not care much about price.

 

[Crayon]

You quote me saying OTHER people said 20 and you are asking ME if I am holding it to the success of Quest 2?

Even 10 has been thrown around here in this thread, and others, or "much much more" than PSVR1. These individuals are looking at both the flaws and benefits to the hardware, the benefits imo do not come close to overwriting all the flaws, which is why I believe this high numbers are unlikely.

Some thing it will sell two million in a few weeks. That would make it the best selling headset launch windows and the fastest selling headset ever. If Quest 2 couldn't pull that off from the jump than I find that very hard to believe the PSVR2 could do it even with a much 6better launch line up and a price drop to $499 right before launch in feb.

Okay then what's a reasonable parameter because I just see it being compared to the quest. You must have something in mind because you are dead set that it won't hot the goal.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Even 10 has been thrown around here in this thread, and others, or "much much more" than PSVR1. These individuals are looking at both the flaws and benefits to the hardware, the benefits imo do not come close to overwriting all the flaws, which is why I believe this high numbers are unlikely.

The benefits are massive. What are you talking about?

PSVR1 was basically a prototype. PSVR2 is a legitimate VR platform. There's a massive difference. There are actual legit VR controllers, less cable mess, a screen with foveated rendering, 4x the pixels, wider FOV, etc. etc.

It's an enormous jump. PS5 is also more capable of 60Hz and above thanks to the increased horesepower, so adding VR modes, etc. should not be as big of a hurdle (meaning more software adoption)

10M lifetime sales seems like an achievable goal. It does not need Quest 2 numbers to be a success.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

The enthusiast market has grown since 2016 a

The enthusiast market is going to alone get PSVR2 to outsell PSVR1, or reach 10 Million headsets.

Okay then what's a reasonable parameter because I just see it being compared to the quest. You must have something in mind because you are dead set that it won't hot the goal.

Why do I have to compare the PSVR2 to the Quest 2 to note the problems it has from being able to reach 10 million headsets? I've already listed earlier the factors that will likely prevent it from selling that high.

Some of these problems could be resolved with a deeper investment and a change in strategy by Sony, but then I also do not believe Sony wants to split their resources that much.

Sony is usual good about putting out the preorder numbers, I think that when that comes out we will have an even better clue to general interest in the headset.

The benefits are massive. What are you talking about?

To cover up all the flaws? Not likely. Especially when you want to reach that broader audiences for higher headset sales. To beat the near 6 million PSVR 1's they are going to need to be appealing to them.

PSVR1 was basically a prototype. PSVR2 is a legitimate VR platform. There's a massive difference. There are actual legit VR controllers, less cable mess, a screen with foveated rendering, 4x the pixels, wider FOV, etc. etc.

You can say that about other headsets that improved with their successors, but what you aren't looking at is what is the headset doing to appeal to a broader audience who haven't touched VR that PSVR1 did not. Or even to take from Quest 2. Price is only one factor, you got to look at all the reasons.

If spec increases were all that was needed than VR would be more competitive and Quest wouldn't have 76% of the market, probably over 80% with the other family headsets from the same company. Wouldn't surprise me.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

To cover up all the flaws? Not likely. Especially when you want to reach that broader audiences for higher headset sales. To beat the near 6 million PSVR 1's they are going to need to be appealing to them.

What flaws?

You can say that about other headsets that improved with their successors, but what you aren't looking at is what is the headset doing to appeal to a broader audience who haven't touched VR that PSVR1 did not. Or even to take from Quest 2. Price is only one factor, you got to look at all the reasons.

"Broader appeal". What are you talking about? There is broader appeal because it's a much more compelling product. PSVR1 didn't have a controller. The resolution was fuzzy. The hardware wasn't very capable of providing compelling graphics.

PSVR2 and Quest are going for a different market. The latter wants a wider demographic and more casuals. PSVR2 is going for a highly devoted enthusiast market. Both can be successful in different ways.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

The enthusiast market is going to alone get PSVR2 to outsell PSVR1, or reach 10 Million headsets.

It easily will. 10M is less than 10% of the entire PS userbase. It is not difficult to imagine the top 10% of consumers are enthusiasts.

 

[Crayon]

Why do I have to compare the PSVR2 to the Quest 2 to note the problems it has from being able to reach 10 million headsets? I've already listed earlier the factors that will likely prevent it from selling that high.

Okay, that's all I was trying to ask. 10 seems like a lofty, but atainable goal. More that likeley you'll get your wish and it won't reach that. We're not sure what sony is expecting. Taking a stab in the dark, I figure 6-8 million would be good. As you aren't comparing it to the quest, that would be a very high-selling headset.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

"Broader appeal". What are you talking about? There is broader appeal because it's a much more compelling product. PSVR1 didn't have a controller. The resolution was fuzzy. The hardware wasn't very capable of providing compelling graphics.

PSVR2 and Quest are going for a different market. The latter wants a wider demographic and more casuals. PSVR2 is going for a highly devoted enthusiast market. Both can be successful in different ways.

You don't produce 2 million consoles for launch to sell overtime for the enthusiast crowd.

Okay, that's all I was trying to ask. 10 seems like a lofty, but atainable goal. More that likeley you'll get your wish and it won't reach that. We're not sure what sony is expecting. Taking a stab in the dark, I figure 6-8 million would be good. As you aren't comparing it to the quest, that would be a very high-selling headset.

My wish? It's got nothing to do with it, as of yet Sony has done nothing to incentivize enough customers over time to reach that number.

The analysts thinks it will do 3.6 million over two years. That will make PSR2 nearly as frontloaded as the PSVR1. Which also makes selling 6 on iffy unless they manage to stabilize sales at that time.

I think the preorders will gives us a better clue as to where it may go. I also don't think the analysis of 3.6 million is taking into account the recent growing number of announced 2023 headsets, PS5 availability, and console competition. You also have Apple. If it still does 3.6 million that will be really good, but then i8t begs the question on what's lifting it to sell another 3 million after. If it takes that long to sell 3.6 million until Feb 2025, by then new headsets will be out. PS5 is unlikely to have a price cut, so the PVR2 may not either, or maybe it goes down $50 like the PSVR1, but would that be enough?

 

[Crayon]

My wish? It's got nothing to do with it, as of yet Sony has done nothing to incentivize enough customers over time to reach that number.

The analysts thinks it will do 3.6 million over two years. That will make PSR2 nearly as frontloaded as the PSVR1. Which also makes selling 6 on iffy unless they manage to stabilize sales at that time.

I think the preorders will gives us a better clue as to where it may go. I also don't think the analysis of 3.6 million is taking into account the recent growing number of announced 2023 headsets, PS5 availability, and console competition. You also have Apple. If it still does 3.6 million that will be really good, but then i8t begs the question on what's lifting it to sell another 3 million after. If it takes that long to sell 3.6 million until Feb 2025, by then new headsets will be out. PS5 is unlikely to have a price cut, so the PVR2 may not either, or maybe it goes down $50 like the PSVR1, but would that be enough?

psvr1 ended up at like 5 million I think and that's when vr was just getting a toehold. Maybe expecting 10 isn't too crazy but still seems like a lot at 10% of 100 million ps5 owners. I would hope it would handily beat that 5, tho. It would help a bunch to know what sony had in mind. As far as more commpetion in the vr market, that seems like it would help. That means there is more interest in it and psvr2 seems to be slotting in well considering what else is projected to be out there. You have the quest 2 for people who want things on the casual side, $1000+ headsets for the high end and the psvr2 in the middle there. So idk if momre commpetition headsets in a bigger amrket will hurt or help.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Okay, that's all I was trying to ask. 10 seems like a lofty, but atainable goal. More that likeley you'll get your wish and it won't reach that. We're not sure what sony is expecting. Taking a stab in the dark, I figure 6-8 million would be good. As you aren't comparing it to the quest, that would be a very high-selling headset.

I think some people are discounting a potential Kinect/Wii effect with PSVR2 as well.

PS5 prices will come down. PSVR2 prices will come down. If it genuinely has that "next gen VR" effect on people and have some must have games for it, I could see it doing a LOT better than people think.

PSVR1 fizzled out due to all the shortcomings of the platform. 10M is a realistic top end goal, but it COULD be much bigger. Eventually PSVR2 will be like $299 or less and there will be a lot more PS5s in the wild

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

You don't produce 2 million consoles for launch to sell overtime for the enthusiast crowd.

I don't understand what you're getting at.

 

[Crayon]

I think some people are discounting a potential Kinect/Wii effect with PSVR2 as well.

PS5 prices will come down. PSVR2 prices will come down. If it genuinely has that "next gen VR" effect on people and have some must have games for it, I could see it doing a LOT better than people think.

PSVR1 fizzled out due to all the shortcomings of the platform. 10M is a realistic top end goal, but it COULD be much bigger. Eventually PSVR2 will be like $299 or less and there will be a lot more PS5s in the wild

Quest had a formidle marketing push and it worked. Sony hopefully will throw their weight behind that. Then the games have to be good enough and that's up to the public. I'm crarp at sales gaf but it seems like mmuch over 10 would be a resounding success. Still within the realmm of reason, though.

Ya know another consideration is if it will work with ps6. psvr1 works with ps5 but it was old by then and you at best got ps5 updates for games and not real ps5 games. If psvr2 can stay selling through next gen and they are wable to make it a smooth back-forwards commpatibility with a psvr3 then that changes the equation a lot.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Quest had a formidle marketing push and it worked. Sony hopefully will throw their weight behind that. Then the games have to be good enough and that's up to the public. I'm crarp at sales gaf but it seems like mmuch over 10 would be a resounding success. Still within the realmm of reason, though.

Ya know another consideration is if it will work with ps6. psvr1 works with ps5 but it was old by then and you at best got ps5 updates for games and not real ps5 games. If psvr2 can stay selling through next gen and they are wable to make it a smooth back-forwards commpatibility with a psvr3 then that changes the equation a lot.

Yeah I think PSVR2 could be something that transcends generations. There will likely be a PSVR3, but there's no reason why PSVR2 couldn't continue being supported unless they change up the controllers significantly at this point which is unlikely.

Kinect on Xbox sold like 35 Million. That is an achievable top level goal over the long-term IMHO.

My only fear is that Sony won't support VR due to all their meddling in GaaS....hopefully PSVR2 gets a bigger push than what we've seen thus far

 

[Crayon]

Yeah I think PSVR2 could be something that transcends generations. There will likely be a PSVR3, but there's no reason why PSVR2 couldn't continue being supported unless they change up the controllers significantly at this point which is unlikely.

Kinect on Xbox sold like 35 Million. That is an achievable top level goal over the long-term IMHO.

My only fear is that Sony won't support VR due to all their meddling in GaaS....hopefully PSVR2 gets a bigger push than what we've seen thus far

Ommg 35 seems like it would be huge. Kinekt had one of the most insane marketing blitzes and was a lot cheaper. On the other hand, it was horseshit snake oil garbage so there's that lol.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

I don't understand what you're getting at.

This is also why you don't see why it's going to be an uphill battle for PSVR2 to beat PSVR1, let alone selling 10 million headsets or more.

You seem to not be realizing Sony can't reach certain numbers without certain audiences. You are focused exclusively on the enthusiast.

I think some people are discounting a potential Kinect/Wii effect with PSVR2 as well.

PS5 prices will come down. PSVR2 prices will come down.

Those devices sold upfront because of the value of those products along with what they brought, and then got more popular as they were bundled and dropped in price. While still having proven to a broad audience what it's about and it was a sought7 aft7er product. In9 Kinects case it was attached to a cheap marked down consoles which in some instances was $99 a year or in for th7e lowest storage, while offering an appealing experience for the time.

VR at this point is not there isn't a fad factor involved like those two, nor is the low entry to value there.

PSVR1 fizzled out due to all the shortcomings of the platform.

Several of those shortcomings are still there with the PSVR2, just7 not as bad, but some are absent on other headsets.

Ya know another consideration is if it will work with ps6. psvr1 works with ps5 but it was old by then and you at best got ps5 updates for games and not real ps5 games. If psvr2 can stay selling through next gen and they are wable to make it a smooth back-forwards commpatibility with a psvr3 then that changes the equation a lot.

You are forgetting even by 2025 there will be new headsets coming out, so thinking that people will be buying PSVR2's on the PS6 in any major number is strange.

This isn't a standard add-on VR itself is an industry with multiple competitors putting out new iterations similar to phones but not as fast. No one is going to wait around and buy the same headset for 5-7 years when there's new experiences and better headsets to buy.

Quest 2 launched a year after Quest 1, and now Quest 2 will soon be replaced likely in the next year which will give it a 3 year life b6efore replacement, and they are introducing a high-end model with the Pro as well.

HTC and others have new sets coming out. Bunch of new players to.

This isn't Kinect, Eyetoy, or other add-ons that can sit for 5 year or more and sell over time and get boosts when the prices drop. PSVR2 will be way out of favor by the time of the PS6.

psvr1 ended up at like 5 million I think and that's when vr was just getting a toehold.

Most of those sales were front-loaded. Samsung sold that in less than half the time.

As far as more commpetion in the vr market, that seems like it would help. That means there is more interest in it and psvr2 seems to be slotting in well considering what else is projected to be out there. You have the quest 2 for people who want things on the casual side, $1000+ headsets for the high end and the psvr2 in the middle there. So idk if momre commpetition headsets in a bigger amrket will hurt or help.

No, it means more people will start comparing to the competition. There's no middle either the Quest 2 took a hit, realistically people who can't do that are going to sell their headsets at around the same price or just under PSVR2, so for new users the question will be if the $500 PS5 purchase on top of PSVR, and then the games are worth it, or will the wireless multi-device compatible option at $500 be more appealing? Because there's already not that big of a gap between Quest 2 and PSVR2 in several areas with it's own advantages, it won't take much for a new headset to slot in between the two. May even be the Quest 3 itself.

Than you have TCL coming in, the specs we have been seeing for most PCVR headsets 1000+ are overpriced, those are going to be forced down by the market as better headsets come in costing the same price.

If Sony really was on it's own island than there would be a case but it's not. Also, the VR industry keeps moving, every year new headsets, every 2-3 years successors to previous headsets. Any advantage is temporary.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

This is also why you don't see why it's going to be an uphill battle for PSVR2 to beat PSVR1, let alone selling 10 million headsets or more.

You seem to not be realizing Sony can't reach certain numbers without certain audiences. You are focused exclusively on the enthusiast.

The enthusiast market is >10% of PS userbase. 10M is achievable.

Those devices sold upfront because of the value of those products along with what they brought, and then got more popular as they were bundled and dropped in price. While still having proven to a broad audience what it's about and it was a sought7 aft7er product. In9 Kinects case it was attached to a cheap marked down consoles which in some instances was $99 a year or in for th7e lowest storage, while offering an appealing experience for the time.

VR at this point is not there isn't a fad factor involved like those two, nor is the low entry to value there.

There's more value in PSVR2 than there is in Kinect.

PSVR2 will also drop in price and get bundled.

Your point?

Several of those shortcomings are still there with the PSVR2, just7 not as bad, but some are absent on other headsets.

Being wired or tied to a console isn't that big of a shortcoming.

PSVR2's appeal is based on high end VR for reasonable cost, and it must have those two things.

 

[FrankWza]

The enthusiast market is >10% of PS userbase. 10M is achievable.



There's more value in PSVR2 than there is in Kinect.

PSVR2 will also drop in price and get bundled.

Your point?



Being wired or tied to a console isn't that big of a shortcoming.

PSVR2's appeal is based on high end VR for reasonable cost, and it must have those two things.

I think this is the fairest expectation and overall gauge of the market including time, price and expected software support while taking the equivalent of what PSVR1 did into account.

If Sony doesn’t support it better than they did 1 it will come in below those numbers. If they do a great job with first party or exclusive support it will easily do better attach rates and probably 7-10%. if they hit on a phenomenon or 2 somehow then They can see this thing take off.

Give me a good Star Wars lightsaber game, GTVR, a Wii sports type game, a pilotvr like ace combat and good horror game experiences and first party support and 10% is doable. Those are no brainers to me

 

[DeepEnigma]

People are already trying to forget that PSVR and PSVR2 require a PS4 (not included, $400) and PS5 (not included, at least $400), respectively too.

Sweet. Now do PCVR with the same tech "just for one game."

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

The enthusiast market is >10% of PS userbase. 10M is achievable.

There are not 10 million PS5 enthusiasts interested in VR to sell 10 million headsets by themselves.

You're poor attempts to pretend PSVR2 doesn't have to reach multiple audiences to sell that much is bonkers.

There's more value in PSVR2 than there is in Kinect.

Let me know when PSVR2 sells 25 million headsets to the people who brought Kinect.

PSVR2's appeal is based on high end VR for reasonable cost,

No that's you. Average consumer will not see it as a reasonable cost and will question how much extra value they "may" get if they choose it over another option. Right now that is Quest 2, by launch of PSVR2 there will be more players.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

There are not 10 million PS5 enthusiasts interested in VR to sell 10 million headsets by themselves.

You're poor attempts to pretend PSVR2 doesn't have to reach multiple audiences to sell that much is bonkers.

You have given no facts to support your claims.

There will eventually be 10M PS5 enthusiasts to sell VR to, even if they aren't already here today.

No that's you. Average consumer will not see it as a reasonable cost and will question how much extra value they "may" get if they choose it over another option. Right now that is Quest 2, by launch of PSVR2 there will be more players.

Sony isnt going after the average consumer (whatever the hell that even means, there is no average consumer). How many times do I have to tell you this? They are going after a consumer that is interested in VR after already buying into the PS5.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

You have given no facts to support your claims.

Yet you are the one who made the claim with no facts. Odd.

There will eventually be 10M PS5 enthusiasts to sell VR to,

Having tens of millions of PS5 owners to potentially sell VR to is not the same as them actually buying VR.

Sony isnt going after the average consumer (whatever the hell that even means, there is no average consumer). How many times do I have to tell you this? They are going after a consumer that is interested in VR after already buying into the PS5.

Sony wants people to come to PS5 for VR to get them into the ecosystem. They are launching with games that appeal to multiple audiences hoping they come over.

This nonsense about Sony not targeting the average consumer is crazy and is only topped buy you thinking that there are 10 million PSVR2 customers who will buy a head set in an enthusiast targeted only business strategy.

If you can get audiences needed than it'll be luck to sell more than that 3.6 million at all, if it even gets there. Sony is targeting as much as they can, as many people as they can convince to buy PSVR2 or a PS5 with PSVR2.

I've never seen someone so bent on wanting a company to have a product fail than y5ou constantly pretending that Sony is only targeting enthusiasts and that there's 10 million of them.

Do you think PSVR's1 likely close to 6 million sales came from just targeting enthusiasts? Of course not, it brought in various demographics. It would have barely sold double Vive numbers if they didn't. One of the top selling games on PSVR1 is Beats Saber for gosh sake.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Yet you are the one who made the claim with no facts. Odd.



Having tens of millions of PS5 owners to potentially sell VR to is not the same as them actually buying VR.



Sony wants people to come to PS5 for VR to get them into the ecosystem. They are launching with games that appeal to multiple audiences hoping they come over.

This nonsense about Sony not targeting the average consumer is crazy and is only topped buy you thinking that there are 10 million PSVR2 customers who will buy a head set in an enthusiast targeted only business strategy.

If you can get audiences needed than it'll be luck to sell more than that 3.6 million at all, if it even gets there. Sony is targeting as much as they can, as many people as they can convince to buy PSVR2 or a PS5 with PSVR2.

I've never seen someone so bent on wanting a company to have a product fail than y5ou constantly pretending that Sony is only targeting enthusiasts and that there's 10 million of them.

Do you think PSVR's1 likely close to 6 million sales came from just targeting enthusiasts? Of course not, it brought in various demographics. It would have barely sold double Vive numbers if they didn't. One of the top selling games on PSVR1 is Beats Saber for gosh sake.

You keep going in circles and inventing arguments I AM NOT MAKING. I don't think Sony is ONLY targeting enthusiasts, but the first few million (even up to 10M) will be from a more enthusiast consumer.

I expect PSVR2 will sell more than 10M, probably closer to 20M (over the course of many years) because PS5 and PSVR2 price will eventually drop.

What are you arguing? Sony is going to have a difficult time selling PSVR2 vs PSVR1 based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

 

[Crayon]

Yeah I think it's crazy that 2 would sell less than 1. If 1 was getting 5% attach, the estimate for 2 getting 7% seems reasonable. There is no reason that a vastly improved sequel at a similar price should crash and burn. The game lineup for the first one was great by vr standards but should not be that hard to top considering there are way more game and especially porting possiblilties with this one.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

You keep going in circles and inventing arguments I AM NOT MAKING.

No, you are going around in circles avoiding arguments you should be considering, along with factors you keep dimissing.

I expect PSVR2 will sell more than 10M, probably closer to 20M (over the course of many years) because PS5 and PSVR2 price will eventually drop.

Can't do either number without attracting the right audiences. Not to mention price is only one issue, they had an increase in parts of the world, and it's unlikely the price is going to drop much. In many years multiple new headsets that are better will come out too. VR isn't a sit and wait industry, even PSVR1 suffered on that strategy. You have 2-3 years tops before the next wave comes in. The previous set will still sell but it's appeal will drop as a result.

You dodging that you think it can sell 10 million or more just by targeting hardcore VRists is also a poor strategy that will lead to low headset sales and Sony to reduce and pull support. I wouldn't think you would want that to happen.

What are you arguing? Sony is going to have a difficult time selling PSVR2 vs PSVR1 based on ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

Various factors listed by me and others in this and other threads you will continue to ignore for no reason other than... Hope?

I mean again, without the average consumer, which they GOT some of with PSVR1, PSVR2 will have an uphill battle. Sony has some games for them but they are already on the Quest and other headsets, they need to push out more. They still have time for launch to adjust strategy so we will see if they set things up to get some of that demographic on board.

There is no reason that a vastly improved sequel at a similar price should crash and burn. The game lineup for the first one was great by vr standards but should not be that hard to top considering there are way more game and especially porting possiblilties with this one.

If specs were the only factor impacting sales of the PSVR 1 than the Vive should be selling millions right now.

 

[Crayon]

If specs were the only factor impacting sales of the PSVR 1 than the Vive should be selling millions right now.

You don't think psvr1 has more factors in common with a psvr2 than it does with a vive?

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

You don't think psvr1 has more factors in common with a psvr2 than it does with a vive?

Factors "impacting sales" I know you read that part of the quote. The point is that just an upgrade doesn't mean anything to get the average consumer on board alone, otherwise things would be radically different in the market right now.

 

[Crayon]

Factors "impacting sales" I know you read that part of the quote. The point is that just an upgrade doesn't mean anything to get the average consumer on board alone, otherwise things would be radically different in the market right now.

Well, you are incredibly confident in many things that I'm not convinced any of us or perhaps anyone at all should know. Not knowing myself, I can only go on my experience with message boards telling me that anyone making predictions based on exclusively worst case assumptions is going to come in a little on the low side. So I'd peg my guess at higher than whatever it is you have in mind.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Well, you are incredibly confident in many things that I'm not convinced any of us or perhaps anyone at all should know. Not knowing myself, I can only go on my experience with message boards telling me that anyone making predictions based on exclusively worst case assumptions is going to come in a little on the low side. So I'd peg my guess at higher than whatever it is you have in mind.

You being disingenuous aside and that's being nice, the problem is you 9and him) ignoring ANY negative case at all and not even considering the factors that need to be addressed, so you can act as if there's a clear path to 10 million. The the point the last guy even said they can sell that with just hardcore enthusiasts. It's like hoping to sell more than 20 million PS5's without any demographics that play Minecraft, Madden, COD, Fifa, or Fortnite etc.

You keep making this strange statements or looking for some kind of comparison point because you aren't comprehending the simple problem that there are NO high sales without the groups necessary. They will see flaws that turn them off different from you, which you won't put any effort in considering. This goes double for the other guy, You also like putting words in my mouth I never said instead going with what you believe I did.

This is an incredibly simple thing to grasp and you aren't doing so because you're closing your ears.

 

[Crayon]

You being disingenuous aside and that's being nice, the problem is you 9and him) ignoring ANY negative case at all and not even considering the factors that need to be addressed, so you can act as if there's a clear path to 10 million. The the point the last guy even said they can sell that with just hardcore enthusiasts. It's like hoping to sell more than 20 million PS5's without any demographics that play Minecraft, Madden, COD, Fifa, or Fortnite etc.

You keep making this strange statements or looking for some kind of comparison point because you aren't comprehending the simple problem that there are NO high sales without the groups necessary. They will see flaws that turn them off different from you, which you won't put any effort in considering. This goes double for the other guy, You also like putting words in my mouth I never said instead going with what you believe I did.

This is an incredibly simple thing to grasp and you aren't doing so because you're closing your ears.

I think I've done a pretty decent job trying to follow your points but I suppose we can only let onlookers decide that for themselves.

If you think I'm ignoring negative cases, maybe it's because I'm not going along with your reliably worst-case assumptions on... everything. I've been pretty wishy-washy down the middle on all these points so maybe take that into consideration if it seems like I'm dismissing any pessimism.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

No, you are going around in circles avoiding arguments you should be considering, along with factors you keep dimissing.



Can't do either number without attracting the right audiences. Not to mention price is only one issue, they had an increase in parts of the world, and it's unlikely the price is going to drop much. In many years multiple new headsets that are better will come out too. VR isn't a sit and wait industry, even PSVR1 suffered on that strategy. You have 2-3 years tops before the next wave comes in. The previous set will still sell but it's appeal will drop as a result.

You dodging that you think it can sell 10 million or more just by targeting hardcore VRists is also a poor strategy that will lead to low headset sales and Sony to reduce and pull support. I wouldn't think you would want that to happen.



Various factors listed by me and others in this and other threads you will continue to ignore for no reason other than... Hope?

I mean again, without the average consumer, which they GOT some of with PSVR1, PSVR2 will have an uphill battle. Sony has some games for them but they are already on the Quest and other headsets, they need to push out more. They still have time for launch to adjust strategy so we will see if they set things up to get some of that demographic on board.



If specs were the only factor impacting sales of the PSVR 1 than the Vive should be selling millions right now.

More misrepresentations of arguments. I never said 10M by targeting hardcore VR enthusiasts. I said 10M hardcore Playstation enthusiasts that are either back again from PSVR1 or are curious about PSVR2 for the first time despite being big power users of PS consoles.

The next wave of upgrades are going to see diminishing returns compared to PSVR1 to PSVR2. Secondly it's going to take potentially decades before we see PS5 power on a mobile chip for standalone headsets. There's not going to be ANY competition for PSVR2 in the AAA space for a very long time.


But frankly - userbase numbers aren't the most important metric. There's a lot of Quest 2's gathering dust right now. Quest 2 basically turned VR into standalone low-rent quality ghetto gaming. People buy it for the novelty then forget about it before the experience is poor. I'd rather have a smaller PSVR2 audience that is active and buying compelling content.

Your argument is that PSVR2 will have difficulty exceeding 5M sold, which seems laughable on the face of an expanding audience for VR and gaming and the improvements listed.