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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Really? Fucking Puzder is where the GOP is drawing the line on trumps cabinet picks? cowards

Edit: CNN breaking says 4 GOP are NO for labor pick
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
sc0la said:
Really? Fucking Puzder is where the GOP is drawing the line on trumps cabinet picks? cowards

Edit: CNN breaking says 4 GOP are NO for labor pick
Click to expand...

Puzder is a wife beating anti-poor piece of shit, but they drew the line at the fact that Puzder thinks undocumented immigrants are just as good of people as everyone else.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Pudzer's ex-wife was on Oprah about his domestic abuse. No video yet, but maybe GOP is worried the other shoe will drop?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I don't think ground game matters much at all, but Nate Silver's recent piece on "ground game is overrated" is just so badly written. No instruments, no quasi experiments, just basic regression and then he seems to think that this is somehow very definitive.
 
I

Infinite Stars

Member
gutter_trash said:
to the Left, everybody else is the same as Harper... am right?

Yas Prince!

any Lefty Canadian who criticizes Trudeau is ultimately serving the Conservatives
Click to expand...

That's absolute bullshit and you know it. Trudeau is allowed to be criticized for his actions, including his chicken shit ways regarding Electoral Reform.

You change to PR and you never get a conservative government again, isn't that worth no longer having Trudeau be the designated ruler of Canada?


Apathy said:
you really think that if the ndp got in power they wouldn't break election promises? cause if you actually believe that, please, please go look up world history at every other elected goverment ever from the dawn of humanity and realize no one, ever, EVER has kept, or will ever keep every campaign promise.
Click to expand...

I get that, but when Trudeau backs away from the one reason why I donated to the liberals in 2015(Electoral reform) is a whole level of bullshit, especially since he literally said 2015 would be the last election under the current system.
 
V

Vixdean

Member
Criticism of Trudeau sounds a lot like the bullshit Obama got from the left early in Presidency. He didn't immediatly shut down the military, throw bankers in jail, and outlaw fossil fuels so he's Bush 2.0!
 
I

Infinite Stars

Member
Vixdean said:
Criticism of Trudeau sounds a lot like the bullshit Obama got from the left early in Presidency. He didn't immediatly shut down the military, throw bankers in jail, and outlaw fossil fuels so he's Bush 2.0!
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I'm not saying that Trudeau isn't doing a good job, but this notion that any criticism of him is helping the Conservatives is stupid. We're allowed to criticize him, unless Canada's free speech now has a "No criticizing the government" clause.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
jtb said:
To be fair to Dino Rossi (lol), I'm pretty sure he's just filling in as a favor to the WA GOP, who is generally pretty hopeless. He makes way more money as a private citizen.
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lol Dino Rossi

but also

@gdebenedetti
Big initial finding of @prioritiesUSA's "BluePrint" project: Ds need to convince Obama-Trump voters he's looking out for other rich ppl...

@gdebenedetti
...that's the kind of standard D vs R messaging that the party specifically didn't use vs Trump in '16, focusing instead on temperament.

‏@gdebenedetti
The 3p Priorities report (shared w a wide array of progressive orgs) also urges Ds not to shy away from messaging on ACA. Another reversal.
Click to expand...
 
D

Dr Campino

Member
Mr.Shrugglesツ;230247988 said:
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...ls-trips-to-u-s-citing-border-policies-safety
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That's my hometown, and though I didn't attend a public school, they do tend to skew minority-heavy in some areas, so I'm not surprised.

And the university there is seeing a massive boost in interest from international students, where they already make up 20% of the student body.

http://windsorstar.com/news/local-n...ees-interest-from-american-students-skyrocket
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
whyamihere said:
Let's say it one more time

lol

Dino

Rossi
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lol. I know. Still; you don't get many opportunities out here to actually be useful to the Dem Party besides lolwhatshouldwedowithallthismoney type of discussions.

FloydtheFathead said:
You're going to be busy serving Chairman Pete.. you have no time for that.
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lol I hope. I have an offer on the table if he wins - but I'd have to talk to my wife about it.

He's not going to win unless Perez and Ellison blow it spectacularly
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
A Facebook friend I knew from like church camps when I was a high schooler just asked if I wanted to join the Antifa in Boise. We bonded over Naruto when I was like 15.

It's interesting and weird to see people I know from youth group in a fairly conservative church split in fairly even numbers between reactionaries and lefties.
 
H

Holmes

Member
gutter_trash said:
funny you mention it, Alberta has a successful NDP provincial government... but where is the successful NDP Federal. uh wait...
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If Albertans want oil sands in their backyard, that's their prerogative. I don't want a pipeline going through my home. Maybe you don't understand because you live in a city but I would lose my shit if the pipeline broke near my home.
 
K

kirblar

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I don't think ground game matters much at all, but Nate Silver's recent piece on "ground game is overrated" is just so badly written. No instruments, no quasi experiments, just basic regression and then he seems to think that this is somehow very definitive.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that part is stupid. We know the state/local infrastructure fell apart in the last 8 years.

At least we can shoot the stupid "should have campaigned in areas that hate you" argument down now.
You can predict 2016 vote super well based on 2012 results & white working-class share. Where Clinton & Trump campaigned didn't matter much.
C4keBW_WcAAgFCK.jpg
Click to expand...
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
No leader is going to be perfect.
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Bernie would have been!

God, my kingdom for a month of a Bernie presidency. Either people would finally realize the president isn't a king (no matter how much Trump acts like it) when he gets stymied by a Republican Congress, or he'd actually deliver and we'd be all the better for it.

Although most likely they'd see him come up short on his campaign promises and conclude that Bernie never meant any of it and was bought and sold just like the rest of them, regardless of any surrounding context. Just like with Obama.
 
A

Apathy

Member
Infinite Stars said:
I'm not saying that Trudeau isn't doing a good job, but this notion that any criticism of him is helping the Conservatives is stupid. We're allowed to criticize him, unless Canada's free speech now has a "No criticizing the government" clause.
Click to expand...

so you're a one issue voter that also thinks the pm is doing a good job at a bunch of things so then that somehow he disrespects voters. Again, if thats the case every government disrespect voters since at some point one will break a promise
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
kirblar said:
Yeah, that part is stupid. We know the state/local infrastructure fell apart in the last 8 years.

At least we can shoot the stupid "should have campaigned in areas that hate you" argument down now.
Click to expand...

I don't agree that we "know" these things at all.

His methodology just isn't as strong as the statements in the article.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Bernie would have been!

God, my kingdom for a month of a Bernie presidency. Either people would finally realize the president isn't a king (no matter how much Trump acts like it) when he gets stymied by a Republican Congress, or he'd actually deliver and we'd be all the better for it.

Although most likely they'd see him come up short on his campaign promises and conclude that Bernie never meant any of it and was bought and sold just like the rest of them, regardless of any surrounding context. Just like with Obama.
Click to expand...
I think there's a difference between "couldn't get everything they wanted done" and "gave up on major achievable campaign promise because it would weaken their position for reelection."

If I was an NDP voter who voted Liberal for electoral reform I'd probably never vote Liberal again unless the situation was particularly dire.
 
B

Blader

Member
tedrotheredro said:
Flynn apologized to Pence:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...may-have-discussed-sanctions-russia/97852248/

So we're all good now, right?

Bonus Edit:

Dan Merica ‏@danmericaCNN
Kellyanne Conway on MSNBC: "Yes, General Flynn does enjoy the full confidence of the president."
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Despite the intense speculation about Flynn's future, no questions about Flynn were asked during the news conference Monday between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trump took two questions from U.S. reporters; both were from conservative-leaving media outlets. Flynn sat in the front row at the news conference with other administration officials.
Click to expand...

SIGH
 
M

mo60

Member
kirblar said:
Yeah, that part is stupid. We know the state/local infrastructure fell apart in the last 8 years.

At least we can shoot the stupid "should have campaigned in areas that hate you" argument down now.
Click to expand...

Why would hilary win Michigan and not PA,NH Wisconsin and Minnesota in the scenario that table showed. Isn't there a high number of college educated voters in Minnesota and NH and doesn't Michigan have a lot of white non college voters. If hilary lost PA and WI she should lose MI to but this table does not show that. Also the weird thing about NH is depsite the high amount of white college educated voters in the state hilary still won the state by a few thousand votes even though that table thought she would lose the state by four points. I think NH and MN are still going to be blue states for now because of their urban centres. Even with states with a high amount of white non college voters the democrats should still be able to win these states if the urban centres outvote the rest of the state, but this depends on how highly populated the urban centres are.
 
C

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Bonen no Max'd said:
I think there's a difference between "couldn't get everything they wanted done" and "gave up on major achievable campaign promise because it would weaken their position for reelection."

If I was an NDP voter who voted Liberal for electoral reform I'd probably never vote Liberal again unless the situation was particularly dire.
Click to expand...
This isn't a firm statement, but I'm pretty sure that the main reason an NDP voter would have gone Liberal last time was if they lived in a riding that was competitive between the Libs and Conservatives, and they were focused on getting Harper out.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I don't agree that we "know" these things at all.

His methodology just isn't as strong as the statements in the article.
Click to expand...

Don't you know regression is a magic wand for turning data into conclusions and all those pesky assumptions underlying it can easily be handwaved away?
Don't get me wrong, regression can be a useful tool, but it's also one that can be easily misused, and the conclusions Nate are drawing from this particular use are awfully shaky.

FWIW, my view would be that while campaign stops are probably somewhat overrated, it is absolutely important to have a presence in "areas that hate us" and not just at election time. There's a big difference between losing a bunch of rural counties 60-40 and losing them 80-20, especially when you end up losing by less than 70K votes spread across three states.
 
N

NullPointer

Member
In further tales of the unexpected, Moby says he knows the Trump dossier is real. From a post on Facebook from a few hours ago:

after spending the weekend talking to friends who work in dc i can safely(well, 'accurately'...) post the following things:

1-the russian dossier on trump is real. 100% real. he's being blackmailed by the russian government, not just for being peed on by russian hookers, but for much more nefarious things.

2-the trump administration is in collusion with the russian government, and has been since day one.

3-the trump administration needs a war, most likely with iran. at present they are putting u.s warships off the coast of iran in the hope that iran will attack one of the ships and give the u.s a pretense for invasion.

4-there are right wing plans to get rid of trump. he's a drain on their fundraising and their approval ratings, and the gop and koch brothers and other u.s right wing groups are planning to get rid of trump.

5-intelligence agencies around the world, and here in the u.s, are horrified by the incompetence of the trump administration, and are
working to present information that will lead to high level firings and, ultimately, impeachment.

i'm writing these things so that when/if these things happen there will be a public record beforehand.

these are truly baffling and horrifying times, as we have an incompetent president who is essentially owned by a foreign power.
-moby
Click to expand...
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
And lo, as so it was foretold, Moby and Tom Arnold did join hands, and unto the people released tapes of Donald Trump being hella racist and being involved in watersports.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
FloydtheFathead said:
Pete wins and The Dolphins win the AFC East and they meet the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

You just need to BeCleve
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Squee.

kirblar said:
Yeah, that part is stupid. We know the state/local infrastructure fell apart in the last 8 years.

At least we can shoot the stupid "should have campaigned in areas that hate you" argument down now.
Click to expand...

Eh - the biggest point that article is making is that ignoring Michigan / Wisconsin isn't why she lost - it was the Dem Party consciously pivoting away from union workers on a strategic level, and those cost Clinton and Dems big in their blue wall. They took the union voters for granted and there was enough slippage to cost us the election.

Box of Kittens said:
Don't you know regression is a magic wand for turning data into conclusions and all those pesky assumptions underlying it can easily be handwaved away?

FWIW, my view would be that while campaign stops are probably somewhat overrated, it is absolutely important to have a presence in "areas that hate us" and not just at election time. There's a big difference between losing a bunch of rural counties 60-40 and losing them 80-20, especially when you end up losing by less than 70K votes spread across three states.
Click to expand...

Eh, the regression analysis is strong enough to easily prove his point - that the ground game didn't make that much of a difference one way or the other.

You want to go to areas that hate you because you want to also keep the local level of your party enthused and relevant, because many of those areas switch allegiances more often than people expect, and you want to be able to capitalize (see the like 15? districts where Clinton won and the Dems literally didn't even bother running a candidate against the Republican)
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
If "reg y a b c d" leaves a zero coefficient for d while having a fairly high r-squared, that still doesn't strongly suggest that d had no impact because there could still be other omitted variables out there.

Needed an instrument or natural experiment or a regression discontinuity first before making these sweeping statements.
 
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