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[RetroGamingUK]

A couple of years ago this thread was created to predict where the current gen console sales will finish

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/predicted-final-sales-for-ps5-xbox-series-x-s-and-switch.1649449/

Two years later, with many changes seen in the industry, what are your predictions as things stand now?

PS5 - 130 million
Currently neck and neck with PS4 at 75 million after 4 years, GTA 6 and loss of competition from Microsoft will see it exceed the PS4’s 118 million shortly after PS6 releases in late 2028

Xbox Series - 35 million
While it got off to a good start, especially with Series S, sales seem to be grinding to a halt with Microsoft’s shift to third party becoming more well known by the mass market, current estimates put it at anywhere between 26m-32m

Switch - 160 million
While Switch 2 is just around the corner, I see Switch having a couple of years of support from Nintendo, being the cheap option to play Nintendo games it will continue use decent sales even after Switch 2 releases before being discontinued in 2027

 

[Killjoy-NL]

PS5: 130+M

Switch: 165+M

Series: 35-38M

 

[DenchDeckard]

After this qtr console hardware report from Sony i could see all those numbers you've put make sense.

I could see Sony at 120 to 125.

Xbox 35 to 40 at a push.

Switch. Yes

 

[onQ123]

A couple of years ago this thread was created to predict where the current gen console sales will finish

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/predicted-final-sales-for-ps5-xbox-series-x-s-and-switch.1649449/

Two years later, with many changes seen in the industry, what are your predictions as things stand now?

PS5 - 125 million
Currently neck and neck with PS4 at 75 million after 4 years, GTA 6 and loss of competition from Microsoft will see it exceed the PS4’s 118 million shortly after PS6 releases in late 2028

Xbox Series - 40 million
While it got off to a good start, especially with Series S, sales seem to be grinding to a halt with Microsoft’s shift to third party becoming more well known by the mass market, current estimates put it at anywhere between 26m-32m

Switch - 160 million
While Switch 2 is just around the corner, I see Switch having a couple of years of support from Nintendo, being the cheap option to play Nintendo games it will continue use decent sales even after Switch 2 releases before being discontinued in 2027

So much delusion in the thread from 2023 lol

 

[Sooner]

PS5 - 120 million
Switch - 159.99 million
Xbox - several dozen

 

[nial]

Xbox Series - 40 million

I only know that that's too much.

 

[Kerotan]

PS4 had no supply thanks to COVID. Ps5 doesn't have to suffer the same fate.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

PS4 had no supply thanks to COVID. Ps5 doesn't have to suffer the same fate.

We’ve not had a PS4 sales update since March 2022 when it was at 117.2m

Once it’s officially discontinued in the next year or two I wouldn’t be surprised to see a final tally around 129m.

 

[Mownoc]

PS5: 125m
Xbox: Under 40m
Switch: 158m - 162m

 

[XXL]

Xbox Series - 40 million

0.1% chance they reach 40M.

 

[Robb]

Switch - 159.99 million

 

[HeWhoWalks]

No way is Xbox hitting 40 mill.

PS5 - 125m
Switch - 160-165m
Xbox - 35m

 

[nial]

We’ve not had a PS4 sales update since March 2022 when it was at 117.2m

Once it’s officially discontinued in the next year or two I wouldn’t be surprised to see a final tally around 129m.

It's already been discontinued since December 2023.

 

[PeteBull]

ps5 definitely below ps4 but still really good coz no competition- 100 to 110m over full 8 years
xbox series visibly below xbox one so since we know next one launches holidays 2026 it will be somewhere around 35m
switch will stop selling next few months so wont even reach 160m

 

[HeWhoWalks]

ps5 definitely below ps4 but still really good coz no competition- 100 to 110m over full 8 years
xbox series visibly below xbox one so since we know next one launches holidays 2026 it will be somewhere around 35m
switch will stop selling next few months so wont even reach 160m

That PS5 math makes no sense. It’s already at 75 mill and will likely do another 19-20 mill this year alone. That leaves 15 million. There will not be a hard cutoff like that between now and Jan 1, 2027.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

That PS5 math makes no sense. It’s already at 75 mill and will likely do another 19-20 mill this year alone. That leaves 15 million. There will not be a hard cutoff like that between now and Jan 1, 2027.

People underestimate how long this generation will last

 

[HeWhoWalks]

People underestimate how long this generation will last

Seriously!

 

[Hookshot]

We'll know when this gen ends in April. Or shall we all collectively pretend that the best selling console replacing itself with a newer model isn't the next gen and combine the sales of two lesser sellers to try and match what it does alone?

 

[HeWhoWalks]

We'll know when this gen ends in April. Or shall we all collectively pretend that the best selling console replacing itself with a newer model isn't the next gen and combine the sales of two lesser sellers to try and match what it does alone?

 

[PeteBull]

That PS5 math makes no sense. It’s already at 75 mill and will likely do another 19-20 mill this year alone. That leaves 15 million. There will not be a hard cutoff like that between now and Jan 1, 2027.

U are right but we cant be sure about gta6 yet.
Example A
Game launches sept 2025 so ps5pr0 will be strongest mashine its avaiable on at least for a year so till holidays 2026 aka next xbox launch. On top pc port happens only 2-3years later- that will definitely boost ps5/pr0 sales by additional 20mil.
Example B- Game is delayed and only launches late 2026 so next xbox is strongest platform its avaiable on, and pc port comes early 2027, in that case ps5/pr0 sales get a boost but it wont be 20m, it will be below 10m imo.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

We'll know when this gen ends in April. Or shall we all collectively pretend that the best selling console replacing itself with a newer model isn't the next gen and combine the sales of two lesser sellers to try and match what it does alone?

Depending on who you ask Switch is either a 9th gen handheld or a 7th gen home console.

What’s not up for debate is in 2025 Nintendo is killing it.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

U are right but we cant be sure about gta6 yet.
Example A
Game launches sept 2025 so ps5pr0 will be strongest mashine its avaiable on at least for a year so till holidays 2026 aka next xbox launch. On top pc port happens only 2-3years later- that will definitely boost ps5/pr0 sales by additional 20mil.
Example B- Game is delayed and only launches late 2026 so next xbox is strongest platform its avaiable on, and pc port comes early 2027, in that case ps5/pr0 sales get a boost but it wont be 20m, it will be below 10m imo.

It doesn’t even need GTA VI to pass 110 m. GTA VI just ensures it will do that and then some.

Next Xbox will have absolutely no bearing on anything with PlayStation.

 

[Zacfoldor]

I'm gonna guess it lands at about 120-125m and XBS at 35m, with Switch well north of 160m.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

I'm gonna guess it lands at about 120-125m and XBS at 35m, with Switch well north of 160m.

Xbox sales this year could drop to nothing once people see Halo on PS5 and Switch 2

Or they could get another 5 million over the next 5 years, it’s hard to tell

 

[ExtendEmbraceExtinguish]

After this qtr console hardware report from Sony i could see all those numbers you've put make sense.

I could see Sony at 120 to 125.

Xbox 35 to 40 at a push.

Switch. Yes

This; but I would put Xbox at 50 million. There are folks that buy consoles after the next one comes out.

 

[Zathalus]

PS5: 120-130 million
Xbox: 35-40 million
Switch: 160-170 million

 

[V1LÆM]

Both PS5 and Xbox eating Nintendo's dust.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

I'll be weirdly specific:

PS5: 129.4 million
XBS: 40.2 million
NSW: 163.9 million

 

[NeverYouMind]

PS5 less than PS4, XBS less than XBONE, and Switch less than DS.

 

[EN250]

Switch dethrones PS2: 160something million
PS5 on par or a bit above PS4: 117-8(?) to 125 million
Xbox Series:

X360 gonna still be the undefeated system for MS

 

[Horseganador]

PS5: 140 million.
Xbox Series: 32 million.
Switch: 158 million.

 

[bundylove]

Since nintendo has switch numbers for the past 8 or 9 years, i would like to know the sony numbers in the same timeline so combining ps4 and ps5 console sales.

Bet you it will be neck in neck with switch numbers.

Xbox is done when it comes to sales. And no one will buy an xbox console moving forward.

 

[Mr Moose]

So much delusion in the thread from 2023 lol

It shows a lack of reality when they start estimating it at less than the Xbox One.

 

[Unknown?]

PS5: 140 million
Switch: 161 million
Xbox Series: 33 million

Xbox won't even reach 4 million for the year in 2025.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

This was the worst prediction from the January 2023 thread.

Three​

Jan 6, 2023

I don't think they will break the ceiling so I'm going to go with a slightly more conservative

PS5 - 85
XBOX - 85
SWITCH - 130

But it depends entirely on successors/revisions

 

[MrA]

Since nintendo has switch numbers for the past 8 or 9 years, i would like to know the sony numbers in the same timeline so combining ps4 and ps5 console sales.

Bet you it will be neck in neck with switch numbers.

Xbox is done when it comes to sales. And no one will by an xbox console moving forward.

Ps4 had sold 53.4 million by January 2017,so it has sold around 65 million more units plus 75 ps5 so 140 million
Any ps5 123 million,
Switch 160,640,000 rounded to the nearest 10k
Xbox 36000 thousand

 

[Woopah]

PS5 135 million
Xbox Series 35 million
Switch 165 million

 

[blacktout]

PS5 less than PS4, XBS less than XBONE, and Switch less than DS.

... You think the Switch will sell less than 4 million units during the rest of its life?

The difference is actually closer to 3 million, and that's without counting whatever it has sold so far in 2025.

Even if Nintendo halts Switch production the second the Switch 2 launches, which they absolutely will not do, they should still beat the DS.

 

[GigaBowser]

switch best sells ever

 

[Shrap]

PS5 - 120 million
Switch - 159.99 million
Xbox - several dozen

We ride with Phil to the small, unassuming grave he made for us.