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Shawn Layden: When your costs for a game exceed $200 million, exclusivity is your Achilles’ heel
- Thread starter Leonidas
- Start date
Most of us known this was a problem when a game selling a million copies isn't a success anymore. In the PS2/Xbox/GC era, when games hit over a million, they came out with those players choice copies for a discount. Now games have to hit 10 million just to break even and that's pretty hard to do.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Sony have repeatedly stated recently that they aren't doing fine.
Kuwitzzer
Member
They are not doing fine in the sense that they are not earning as much as they expected. Why? Because where are the exclusives? Where are the games from the first party? Absymal 2023 output, garbage showcase. Also, if they are doing not fine with their console business, how could they be fine when they focus on 2 platforms? The rise in game sales will be compromised by the fall in console sales, I see no difference.
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It looks like pc and switch 3, or whatever it is called, will be my setup for 10th gen, I view games as past/present tense, 80/20 ratio, mostly past, that doesn't mean I'm not optimistic about upcoming games, future games are just a tiny piece of the whole thing called video games, focusing on upcoming games constantly isn't practical for me, anyone think the same way?
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By carving their own market, giving up on competing in the high end AAA space, with their games having the production values of PS3 games and by rarely discounting anything at all.
This is a bit high price to pay.
What Layden is saying is true but things are not black or white.
Sony needs to have a few success stories like Helldivers2, they need to offset lack of growth in the console space and rising costs by using the PC platform but that doesn't mean giving up on the rest or compromising the console business like Microsoft has done this gen.
They need a balanced strategy and I think that's what Jim Ryan has tried to do, now it's about releasing these projects on the markets and see if they work.
Things like Helldivers2 are a great sign for them.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
He literally did nothing of note at Sony when he was an executive. I don't know why he's given any attention. The only thing he did was turn E3 into a shitfest for Sony, and now it's gone. So we have him to thank for that. I still remember the awful E3 where they went around to different live events with TLOU and Flute Guy for GoT.
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
Sony are usually much quicker to copy Nintendo but it looks like they're finally starting to get the message.
analog_future
Resident Crybaby
yeah but the genius's on GAF said non-exclusivity kills games.
who to believe!??!
who to believe!??!
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
50 gigabytes of game? That's the patch size for a quick bug fix patch nowadays.
rofif
Can’t Git Gud
Non Exclusivity is short term profit. Exclusivity is long term brand and loyalty building for bigger profit.
Ogbert
Member
I expect we will see AAA games cut in half and sold to us twice.
A very simple trick to pull with the next Last of Us would be to develop a 30 hour game and then sell it in two parts, each at full price.
People will moan.
But they will still buy it.
And it's two more games to remaster/remake, rather than one.
A very simple trick to pull with the next Last of Us would be to develop a 30 hour game and then sell it in two parts, each at full price.
People will moan.
But they will still buy it.
And it's two more games to remaster/remake, rather than one.
This right here. Despite the outrageous cost of Spiderman and soon to be X Men
Microsoft would 100% go back and do that deal if they could
rofif
Can’t Git Gud
When Xbox was all about that they were golden. It’s their other efforts that ruined everything. Greed
They actually checked the math on this with Spiderman 3. But the numbers actually werent as favorable so you think.
kazuyamishima
Member
I mean, it’s simple math, the numbers are there.
Possibly the most expensive marketing cost for any Sony game was for Niche-Man 2, and it was only $45m.
The data is also incomplete since a few games only have sales for 1.5-2 years, they do continue to sell after that.
But it’s understandable that a lot of people keep saying Sony doesn’t make quite some money from their first party games, even “respectable” people from the industry like Daniel Ahmad keep repeating this nonsense.
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Dr. Wilkinson
Member
Love how you cherry-picked a 2D GBA remake, to try and illustrate your point. As if that’s typical of a modern Switch era Nintendo game.
Nintendo can make numerous games with the budget of one Sony game.
. Versus like, ya know, TotK or Mario Odyssey. 
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ReBurn
Gold Member
Nobody said they aren't making good money. What people are saying is that games aren't making enough money. They need to spend less on games they make so that what they earn is enough to pay for the business so they they can keep making games.
Varteras
Member
Like Reburn is saying, Sony needs to improve their margins. The whole company, including PlayStation, has a spending problem. They make fuckloads of money. They just have a hard time being in a position to keep most of it. There are companies in the industry pocketing 20% to 40% of their revenue. Not small companies either. Sony struggles to even hit 10%.
Spider-Man 2 has been a prime example. It was three times more expensive than the first game 5 years ago, and there wasn't a good explanation as to why. Even Ragnarok didn't cost that much. I think, if I recall correctly, that game was $100 million cheaper to make. Even that game had a huge budget, too. While it's true that Ragnarok was in development a year less than SM2, there is no good reason why that extra year meant that much more of a budget.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Love how you picked cherry-picked a 2D GBA remake, to try and illustrate your point. As if that’s typical of a modern Switch era Nintendo game.
There’s plenty more.
Switch Sports
Everybody Switch
1-2 Switch
Mario Tennis
Brain Training
Warioware
Games like Zelda are the exception not the norm, and it’s still a fraction of what Sony spends.
Kumomeme
Member
the problem is the console platform atmost stuck at around 100-120m of install base. if they can expand this number then it might be different story and whoever manage to do that gonna go down in history for a breaking streak of record.
ideally, accessible price of console is nice. but there is a reason why they need to stick at certain current price range and performance. developers wise, manufacturer wise and customers wise. streaming like Stadia is good option but fast internet and latency is still problem everywhere.
increasing of game price also play role. ideally sub service would lower the barrier but it is not sustain like buying actual game.
expanding the console to be home media device also good but with lot of competition today it not gonna be easy and risk of alienating core audience and affecting the console design. this is what MS attempted with X1 before.
there is also option of expanding the brand into various kind of platform like handheld, streaming etc which is i believe what both Sony and MS currently doing.
another option is balance their output with AAA and AA around the way to minimize the loss. what Sony currently doing by expanding their franchise beyond videogames also good since it would raise their IP and brand value but still no guarantee.
ideally, accessible price of console is nice. but there is a reason why they need to stick at certain current price range and performance. developers wise, manufacturer wise and customers wise. streaming like Stadia is good option but fast internet and latency is still problem everywhere.
increasing of game price also play role. ideally sub service would lower the barrier but it is not sustain like buying actual game.
expanding the console to be home media device also good but with lot of competition today it not gonna be easy and risk of alienating core audience and affecting the console design. this is what MS attempted with X1 before.
there is also option of expanding the brand into various kind of platform like handheld, streaming etc which is i believe what both Sony and MS currently doing.
another option is balance their output with AAA and AA around the way to minimize the loss. what Sony currently doing by expanding their franchise beyond videogames also good since it would raise their IP and brand value but still no guarantee.
Dr. Wilkinson
Member
Plenty more higher-budget games too, you’re just continuing to only mention the lower-end ones.
And how do you know the budgets of the big, high-end Nintendo games? You’re just making an assumption. None of that is public information.
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Kerotan
Member
I can see Gran Turismo benefiting on PC. It might coincide with PSVR2 launching PC support. It depends on the game really but if a Sony AAA single player game sells 3M on PS5 at launch and 1M on PC that's worthwhile. It's an extra 70 million revenue or so day 1. Could be 30% of the budget covered at launch.
With all these Xbox and Bethesda games coming to playstation it's gonna become a pretty crowded space.
With all these Xbox and Bethesda games coming to playstation it's gonna become a pretty crowded space.
Dr. Wilkinson
Member
Would you buy The Last of Us 3 if it was shorter than 2, lower-budget, and still $69.99?
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drganon
Member
Nice stealth port begging thread.
How former PlayStation boss views gaming’s tumultuous time | Shawn Layden interview
Shawn Layden used to run Sony Interactive Entertainment’s Worldwide Studios, a position that gave him unique insight into the whole industry and triple-A games. Layden is now an adviser for companies like Tencent Games, Streamline Media Group and Readygg. These consulting roles help him steer...venturebeat.com
Glad to see the former PS boss speak the truth about this.
Good to see Sony also came to this realization a while ago with the porting of their biggest PS franchises to PC.
Can't wait to get more big budget Sony games on PC
He's right, you're sacrificing your ROI for higher numbers until the math doesn't add on, imagine that a game like Syphon Filter in '99 sold 1 million copies in a year and brought 3-5x its investment, it can feed a plethora of projects back then, now you have Spiderman 2 with a ROI of 75%, that means they will recoup it but they can only finance almost two projects. You're going to a point as we say here "selling the lunch to buy the dinner".
No wonder why the industry is filled with DLC and other microtransactions such as skins, because their ROI is far higher, miles morales was a massive success to bring 300%, other companies cashflow are 80% microtransactions.
No wonder why the industry is filled with DLC and other microtransactions such as skins, because their ROI is far higher, miles morales was a massive success to bring 300%, other companies cashflow are 80% microtransactions.
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Gameplay Gods Bless
Member
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
You’re free to believe Mario Wonder had the budget of God of War Ragnarok and Zelda had the budget of Spiderman 2.
I’d bet that you’re wrong, and I think most people would agree. But you’re free to believe it.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
yes. Some PS First Party games have sold better than CoD (on Play Station)
HerjansEagleFeeder
Member
I'd be all over consoles again if they'd actually start diversifying their portfolio of software in a push for constant new AA titles. But they won't, so PC it is.
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He has an interesting point in terms of growth and sales, and also to his point. How many of those sales are double and triple dips. That 250M audience really does seem to be true.
PS1 grew the industry, Wii blue ocean strategy grew the industy. I have no idea if those consumers remained or bailed or went to mobile. I would think Xbox opened the console space to PC gamers even if only slightly or for a brief time.
Switch introduced a new paradigm, but even with it's massive sales, how many switches have people bought an owned?
PS3/Xbox/Wii is probably the most successful and balanced generation where all 3 companies sold well, 85M/85M/100M+.
Consoles are just swapping around that same 250M customer base now.
PS1 grew the industry, Wii blue ocean strategy grew the industy. I have no idea if those consumers remained or bailed or went to mobile. I would think Xbox opened the console space to PC gamers even if only slightly or for a brief time.
Switch introduced a new paradigm, but even with it's massive sales, how many switches have people bought an owned?
PS3/Xbox/Wii is probably the most successful and balanced generation where all 3 companies sold well, 85M/85M/100M+.
Consoles are just swapping around that same 250M customer base now.
bender
What time is it?
Me purchasing TLOU3 or not would have nothing to do with its' length, budget or price.
GHound
Member
PS3:>87 million
360:>84 million
Wii:>101 million
generation: >272m
Then everything that follows but the Wii U depends on if you want to take a nice long look at the fact that we currently have a market that is predominantly cross gen games.
Also doesn't this twat work in an advisory role for Tencent these days?
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FunkMiller
Gold Member
"Can I have a job again, please?"
AmuroChan
Member
If the sole purpose of the exclusives is to sell the most number of copies possible, then yes, releasing them on all platforms would achieve that. However, that's not the sole purpose of exclusives. Exclusives also serves as a differentiator from the competition. There's a reason why Stranger Things isn't on Disney+. Could Netflix make more money if they license their original content out to other streaming platforms? Absolutely, but to make their own platform stand out it's important to have a catalog of content that people can only find on Netflix. Having a robust catalog of exclusives helps with brand building and association. Nintendo has that kind of brand power and attach rates with their first party games because every person knows Nintendo games can only be played on Nintendo platforms.
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sachos
Member
I really like this guy, E3 2016 was a legendary conference with him. Still watch it from time to time. I agree with his statement about insane budgets, but they will have to be careful if they start doing day one releases for single player games. They have to really look at Xbox numbers and see if its worth it or not.
Megatron
Member
Ah. I see. So when Sony nearly shat themselves at the thought of CoD going exclusive its because they would be the market loser?
LavitzSlambert
Member
I challenge this notion. The PS1 did not grow the industry, the industry was growing regardless and Sony was present with the technology of the time when Nintendo missed hard. Had FF7 and all of those other big Playstation hits come to N64, Nintendo would have seen record growth and a huge success building upon the SNES.
The Wii certainly did not grow the industry, it was a complete illusion that Nintendo foolishly bought into. It just so happened the waggle controls and cheap pricing made it an impulse buy for everyone. This is why your weird aunt got one and raved about Wii Sports for 2 months before chucking it in a closet and never speaking of it again. None of those people bought a Wii-U or a Switch, because they enjoyed playing a game or two and that's it. They are not gamers on a regular basis, and they don't care about it enough to purchase an expensive console.
I don't think it's crazy to think that we have reached a peak of people who are interested enough in gaming to buy a console, in the first world. If these companies want to grow and bring new players to the table, they are going to need to reduce the cost to play and appeal to the developing world and growing countries. The reduction in game budgets will help with the outreach in these markets - because very few people in India are going to drop $70 on a PS5 game. Other than that, there are so many options for entertainment out there - not everyone is going to be interested in video games. Music, movies, books, hell even tabletop and board games. There are so many choices for entertainment, and population is not rising as quickly as it used to. All bad for growth.
Something that is not doing the industry any favors is how we treat kids. I see parents giving kids an ipad to shut them up, and letting them play shitty free games from app stores. When I was 5 my dad introduced me to his NES and let me play Duck Hunt and Super Mario Bros. He never ended up getting into video games, but he got me started. I understand putting a PS5 in front of a 5 year old is not the same thing, it's a lot more complicated now. Instead all these kids know are free, shitty iOS games - so why do we wonder why there is a growth problem in the console business?
Investor9872
Member
If a game of such high quality like Ghost of Tsushima can be made for $40 million, there's no reason why games should cost $100 million, $200+ million. Gaming studios need to rein these developers in, and it seems like that is exactly what's happening now.
Aces High
Member
PlayStation has to put the gamer in the center of their mission if they want to make multiplatform happen.
Multiplayer games like Helldivers 2 are a hard reality check for console gamers as they highlight the scammy aspects of the PlayStation eco system.
On Steam, you don't have to pay for online play.
Helldivers 2 is a crossplay game. Both console and PC gamers play together on the same servers. But only PlayStation customers have to pay for the "infrastructure". It's obvious at this point that the online fee on PlayStation is just a scam.
On Steam, you can return the game and get a full refund.
You don't even need a reason. You can just write "For the lulz" and Valve will send the money back within hours. Admittedly: Valve is a private company. They're not listed on the stock exchange and can prioritize long term success over short term profit. Sony management might have much less leeway even if they wanted to change these things.
The only way PlayStation will be succesful on PC is if they release their games day one on Steam. It's important that Sony understands that.
The reason is the viral power of PC gaming.
The PC crowd can create crazy hype trains out of nothing that go beyond everything you see on any other platform.
They are the most hardcore of the hardcore, the best connected, and the most unforgiving playerbase. But they're also the most loyal fans if you treat them with respect.
The entire Battle Royal genre for example is based on PC community work that got started whithout any professional marketing whatsoever.
If this entire industry goes down in flames, PC gaming will just shake it off and create their own games.
Balancing the benefits of console gaming vs PC gaming will be one of the most challenging tasks for Sony.
PC gaming has advantages like free choice of input. Mouse and keyboard allows for much better communication in multiplayer games and give you a much better user experience in strategy games and shooters.
Should Sony allow mouse and keyboard on PlayStation?
My reasonable thinking says no as it would be too far away from the roots of the PlayStation brand.
My intuition, however, says yes for several reasons:
- Crossplay won't go anywhere. Why not give console players the option to level the field.
- M+KB gives PlayStation a new revenue stream. People buy console + 2 controllers. Why not let them buy console + 2 controllers + M + KB? Make these peripherals high quality and even PC gamers will buy them.
- The most important part: The entry price to PC gaming is crazy high and rising. In times where PC gaming becomes handheld gaming, PlayStation's niche shouldn't be couch gaming. It should be cheap entry price gaming. PlayStation 5 is an amazing gaming machine. I think many people would love to use it as a cheap gaming PC with M + KB.
Last point: Game prices
PlayStation games have to be cheaper when you have a PS Plus sub. Get rid of the 'pay for online scam' and give subscribers a discount on games all year round.
For the highest PS Plus tier, subscribers should get a price watch feature. So if Valve or Microsoft or whoever does a sale, highest tier PS Plus subscribers should get matched prices for multiplatform games in that sale.
Fess
Member
I wonder how often that actually happen; PC gamers buying a console because of an exclusive.
Don’t have any numbers but most of my friends are gaming on PC and none of them has gone from PC to PC+console (except Switch). But many of them has gone from console to console+PC.
Personally I’m divided on this PC porting strategy. I mean I obviously love it as a PC gamer but I 100% think the consequence is going to be that less people buy their console and console versions of their games, even with long delays, because that’s my own strategy going forward.
In short I think this could happen:
Console -> console+PC -> PC
VolticArchangel
Member
It's times like this that Nintendo is even more smug while they're laughing their way to the bank, and rightfully so.