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[winjer]

Interesting, if there aim is to ship 25 million units and they only shipped 3.3 for this first quarter then they will be moving a ridiculous amount in Q3.

Quarters for some companies are offset to civilian year quarters.
They sold 3.3m on what is probably the slowest quarter of the year.
They are bound to sell many more units during summer vacations and especially, during the the X-mas holidays.
25M still seems a bit too optimistic, but not completely far fetched.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

This post will not age well

Nope, but it will be rightfully mocked!

 

[Poltz]

Why get a ps5 when everything releases on ps4 still?

Spider Man 2 will not.

 

[jm89]

Post over on installbase

After 11 quarters on the market :

Wii: 52.62 million
PS4: 43.60 million
PS5: 41.70 million
NSW: 41.67 million
PS2: 41.56 million
PS3 : 23.80 million
XB1 : ~23.3 million (estimated)
XSX+S : 21.10 million
360 : 20.30 million
PS1 : ~17.5 million
Wii U : 10.01 million


Ps5 outpacing most of the past consoles. Ps4 overtake will happen soon.

Also previous Q1s for playstation, this is around what they have done in the past during Q1 highs


PS5
Q1 21/22 - 2.3M
Q1 22/23 - 2.4M
Q1 23/24 - 3.3M

PS4
Q1 FY14 - 2.8M
Q1 FY15 - 2.9M
Q1 FY16 - 3.5M
Q1 FY17 - 3.3M
Q1 FY18 - 3.2M
Q1 FY19 - 3.2M
Q1 FY20 - 1.9M
Q1 FY21 - 0.5M

 

[HTK]

Looking at the number, yeah, physical software is doomed

Of course it is because it doesn't make sense for video games. Steam has already proven that, some people just needed to catch up along with internet infrastructure/access. Yes, there will be a small minority that likes collecting plastic.

 

[DeepEnigma]

The gift that keeps on giving

takashi says sony doomed..........................again

Jim Ryan must have fucked his wife.

What's this guy's problem?

What is he going to say when PS5 becomes the fastest selling home console in history once it surpasses the PS4? He must have a file with some escuses already lmao.

Quick @adamsapple create a thread on this.

Him and Takashi are made for each other.

>analysts say aka these are words out of my ass' in Plain English

Oh, the media-speak to twist clearly strong results to negative. '

 

[MasterCornholio]

It won't do anything in the end.

LOL

 

[Mr Moose]

I was thinking this when a MS employee was tweeting about melted USB crap.

 

[mckmas8808]

Looking at the number, yeah, physical software is doomed

How? Did you see the actual number for last year and Q1 FY this year?

 

[SlimySnake]

Sony Group Portal - FY2023 Q2 Earnings Announcement

www.sony.com

They key here is the YoY increase from Q1 of last year. Aside from first party titles being the same YoY, everything seems to be up by around 50%. Thats pretty damn impressive and expected since your software sales should get better with a larger userbase when you're in the console business.

25 million is an insane target. 15 million is considered fantastic so even if they fall short and end up around 20 million, it will still be the 2nd or 3rd greatest console sales year in history.

I still have no idea why their First party sales were just 6.6 million in Q1 of last year following GT7 and Horizon FW launches in Feb and March. This year it makes sense seeing as how they havent had a first party title launch in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but last year was bizarre.

 

[Hardensoul]

So you didn't see the Zelda bundle selling like hotcakes the last few months?

There’s no Zelda bundle. But there was Zelda theme console without the game.

 

[TaylorSwiftFan]

Digital ratio down year over year win! People gonna have options and you gotta deal with digital-only short sights.



this is april may and june, anyway , q4 was just super hot so it burnt off tons of pent-up demand, clearly sony wants that 25 million( I don't think they'll hit it unless they play things perfectly but they are going in 100% to try and make it)
for context q1 2016 ps4 shipped 3.5 million

Sales jumped 30% QoQ. At this pace, it’ll sell over 26M this FY.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

PS5 versus current competitors
For the 1st quarter of the 3rd full FY (yellow) the 3.3 million the PS5 shipped is 1.9 million up on XBS' 1.4 million (est) and 1.17 million up on NSW's 2.13 million. After 11 quarters PS5 totals 41.7 million compared to 23.2 million (est) for XBS and 41.67 million for NSW. This means launch aligned the PS5 is 18.5 million (est) up on XBS and 0.03 million up on NSW.

Note: XBS hardware shipments are my personal estimates based on it's hardware revenue.

Doesn't hardware revenue also include peripheral sales? Or are those counted elsewhere?

 

[twilo99]

Of course it is because it doesn't make sense for video games. Steam has already proven that, some people just needed to catch up along with internet infrastructure/access. Yes, there will be a small minority that likes collecting plastic.

Proven many times over by different industries. Consumable entertainment doesn’t need to create any excess plastic waste. Digital only is the way.

Physical books is the only one that holds some merit because holding a paper copy does trigger.. something.

 

[twilo99]

Every day he is employed, Bloomberg's reputability delves further into the toilet.

By the end of the year, even Jason Schreier won't be able to salvage their reputation.

I don’t really get the image sensor comment.. they are Apple’s biggest supplier, and that’s all you really need there lol

 

[onQ123]

There’s no Zelda bundle. But there was Zelda theme console without the game.

Yeah that the Zelda themed Switch

 

[mckmas8808]

We know from their 40 million sell through announcement last week that they sold through around 3.5 million so they shipped less than they sold this quarter. This must be because they shipped a gigantic 6.3 million last quarter yet sold through 5 million leaving excess stock on store shelves.

Which makes perfect sense if they knew they would put the disc PS5 on sale in order to get rid of that particular model. And then in Q2 flood the streets with the new model.

 

[mckmas8808]

Him and Takashi are made for each other.

Or maybe they are the same person.....

Always amazing to see low IQ individuals argue on hardware forums.

Console warring at its best. Or worst.

Proven many times over by different industries. Consumable entertainment doesn’t need to create any excess plastic waste. Digital only is the way.

Physical books is the only one that holds some merit because holding a paper copy does trigger.. something.

So where's the 2nd hand market for digital-only games? Without that, I'm NEVER going 100% physical.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Y'all need to be looking at that "add on content" revenue, and realize how little investment from PlayStation produced that number.

PlayStation is about to turn into a monster over the next 12 - 18 months.

 

[Horseganador]

PS5, despite more than two years with stock problems, has Switch sales pace and PS4 will pass this quarter or the next, it has sold more than 9 million these first 6 months and people are acting as if the data were regular xDD

 

[Dr_Ifto]

25m is insane, and I have my doubts that they can reach it. Even if they have 20m, since they said they would do 25m, their stock will take a hit. I expected an adjustment to come soon if Q2 doesnt look good.

 

[PatientGamer]

Anyone who runs a company, or works in the finance or go-to-market departments of a fast growing organisation knows from one look, these are excellent figures. It appears slightly lower than they forecasted, but it's significantly more than they sold in Q1 2022.

The same number of active users, but if average revenue per user (ARPU) and lifetime value (LTV) is higher, then this is moot and not a concern at all. Those MX figures more than make up for it.

Q2 & Q3 will almost certainly meet or exceed targets due to the price drop which was planned ages ago to happen around this time + Spiderman 2 coming.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Doesn't hardware revenue also include peripheral sales? Or are those counted elsewhere?

Not sure, maybe accessories? Microsoft do give out percentage year on year quarterly increase/decreases on hardware revenue and on Installbase a member called Welfare has a hardware revenue bar chart based on this info. Since we know for certain that XBS shipped 3.2million in the Oct to Dec 2021 quarter then you can kind of work out the other quarters so if the bar is half that height in a different quarter then 1.6 million will be what i think it shipped. Of course if X is the dominant SKU then hardware units are lower and if S is the dominant SKU then hardware units are higher. Because we don't know the X/S split then it is really difficult to be accurate but we also got that "over 21 million" confirmation last quarter from Microsoft so i think 23.2 million shipped as of June 30th is pretty close. Welfare estimates 23.9 million for XBS but personally i think that is a little too high.

 

[Physiognomonics]

Still think those first party sales are really not great.

 

[Woopah]

Still think those first party sales are really not great.

Not really surprising when they didn't release anything. They said they had some first party software delayed.

 

[zeldaring]

Why get a ps5 when everything releases on ps4 still?

because people want a upgrade just like they upgrade cars and phones lol. they want a new hardware feeling with better everything.

 

[solidus12]

The PS5 becomes the 16th platform to ship over 40 million. The next platform it will overtake will be the SNES (49.10 million).

No way Xbox One sold more than 50 millions !!??

 

[ReBurn]

No way Xbox One sold more than 50 millions !!??

According to some math and a slide at BIG in Brazil the number could be as high as 58 million

It Appears We May Finally Know Xbox One, Xbox Series X/S Sales, Kind Of

We may have some sort of approximation of sales from both last gen, Xbox One, and current gen, Xbox Series X and S, and it’s not just VGChartz, it’s from Microsoft itself.

www.forbes.com

They said that X|S is up to 21m and X|S + Xbox One was 79 million.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Of the five times that a platform has hit 25 million in a FY none of them had a Q1 below 5 million and they were all considerably cheaper than PS5 especially the DS. I think if Sony really wants 25 million this FY then it is possible but they will need to eat a lot of cost and forget about those profit margins. They need to get that standard PS5 down to $399.99 permanently.

Fiscal Years of 25 million

31.18M - NDS 08/09: 6.94M - 6.79M - 11.89M - 5.56M
30.31M - NDS 07/08: 6.98M - 6.37M - 11.15M - 5.81M
28.82M - NSW 20/21: 5.67M - 6.86M - 11.57M - 4.72M
27.11M - NDS 09/10: 5.97M - 5.73M - 11.65M - 3.76M
25.95M - Wii 08/09: 5.17M - 4.93M - 10.41M - 5.44M

Price

NDS - $129.99 in 2008 adjusted for inflation is $184 in 2023
Wii - $249.99 in 2008 adjusted for inflation is $354 in 2023
NSW - $299.99 standard and $199.99 Lite in 2020 adjusted for inflation is $353 and $236 in 2023.

PS5 - $499.99 standard and $399.99 digital edition

 

[Woopah]

Of the five times that a platform has hit 25 million in a FY none of them had a Q1 below 5 million and they were all considerably cheaper than PS5 especially the DS. I think if Sony really wants 25 million this FY then it is possible but they will need to eat a lot of cost and forget about those profit margins. They need to get that standard PS5 down to $399.99 permanently.

Fiscal Years of 25 million

31.18M - NDS 08/09: 6.94M - 6.79M - 11.89M - 5.56M
30.31M - NDS 07/08: 6.98M - 6.37M - 11.15M - 5.81M
28.82M - NSW 20/21: 5.67M - 6.86M - 11.57M - 4.72M
27.11M - NDS 09/10: 5.97M - 5.73M - 11.65M - 3.76M
25.95M - Wii 08/09: 5.17M - 4.93M - 10.41M - 5.44M

Price

NDS - $129.99 in 2008 adjusted for inflation is $184 in 2023
Wii - $249.99 in 2008 adjusted for inflation is $354 in 2023
NSW - $299.99 standard and $199.99 Lite in 2020 adjusted for inflation is $353 and $236 in 2023.

PS5 - $499.99 standard and $399.99 digital edition

Are we expecting the Slim model to double as a price cut?

 

[El Pistolero]

Interesting. I can see multiple reasons why they did the price cut then, need to clear stock and they want a huge quarter to beat last year's numbers. The last thing they would want after their success story this gen is to be flat.
 

They will not care one bit, provided they make more money off the similarly sized market...

 

[Woopah]

I wish Microsoft gave hardware and sodtware numbers so we could do a full comparison between the 3.

 

[sono]

Those numbers look good.

Well I guess this point we'll just have to settle our differences with pistols at dawn then

 

[vivftp]

Are we expecting the Slim model to double as a price cut?

The revision very likely will be an effective price cut without actually being a price cut. By that I mean they could offer it at the current $399 price of the digital so it's going for the same price as a current PS5 SKU, but since every single unit will be a digital model there will no longer be a $499 SKU. Effectively making it a price cut.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

s

Sony claims nearly 30% of active PS5 users ‘never used PS4’ | VGC

The company believes this shows it continues to acquire new players…

www.videogameschronicle.com

30% probably isn't enough to offset the lost numbers on PS4 users who aren't actively using their PS4s.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Not sure, maybe accessories? Microsoft do give out percentage year on year quarterly increase/decreases on hardware revenue and on Installbase a member called Welfare has a hardware revenue bar chart based on this info. Since we know for certain that XBS shipped 3.2million in the Oct to Dec 2021 quarter then you can kind of work out the other quarters so if the bar is half that height in a different quarter then 1.6 million will be what i think it shipped. Of course if X is the dominant SKU then hardware units are lower and if S is the dominant SKU then hardware units are higher. Because we don't know the X/S split then it is really difficult to be accurate but we also got that "over 21 million" confirmation last quarter from Microsoft so i think 23.2 million shipped as of June 30th is pretty close. Welfare estimates 23.9 million for XBS but personally i think that is a little too high.

IMO Welfare is an..."interesting" character. He is extremely bullish on Xbox sales numbers, to the point of almost being a parody at times. One minute he can be blunt about it selling at OG Xbox levels, the next he is putting out numbers that would make VG Chartz blush. It can get ridiculous at times.

We do have the estimate of 20.5 million X/S systems Ampere provided as of EOY 2022, earlier this year. I think I've seen others, maybe it was even you (?), estimate ~ 1.3 million - 1.4 million X/S system were sold from January to March this year globally. If we're bullish and assume the Ampere numbers were sold-through (I think they were sold-in; if they were sold-through, surely MS would have noted that in their quarterly fiscal results to boost up reported number optics since that would have had them ahead of XBO still), then that'd of been at least 21.8 million by end of March. Maybe 21.9 million.

23.9 million, even if representing shipped, would mean another 2 million between then and end of June, and probably at least a good portion of them just sitting around in channels. But, that would probably have already been happening months ago. I'd also suspect the new Series S is to rejuvenate sales of the lower-end model while maximizing their wafer production allocations (probably still on 7nm) and make up for slagging sales the past six-plus months. Because they can't realistically "only" increase Series X production volumes without incurring a lot of wasted money since so much of their wafer allocation would be going unused.

With that all said, your 23.2 million shipped is probably the more realistic estimate of the two. What the sold-through is? At this point I would have no idea, but it'd certainly be below 23 million.

I wish Microsoft gave hardware and sodtware numbers so we could do a full comparison between the 3.

They're too scared to do it.

 

[Salz01]

because people want a upgrade just like they upgrade cars and phones lol. they want a new hardware feeling with better everything.

It was a rhetorical question. Sony needs to step it up. Lowering the price is a start.

 

[Woopah]

IMO Welfare is an..."interesting" character. He is extremely bullish on Xbox sales numbers, to the point of almost being a parody at times. One minute he can be blunt about it selling at OG Xbox levels, the next he is putting out numbers that would make VG Chartz blush. It can get ridiculous at times.

We do have the estimate of 20.5 million X/S systems Ampere provided as of EOY 2022, earlier this year. I think I've seen others, maybe it was even you (?), estimate ~ 1.3 million - 1.4 million X/S system were sold from January to March this year globally. If we're bullish and assume the Ampere numbers were sold-through (I think they were sold-in; if they were sold-through, surely MS would have noted that in their quarterly fiscal results to boost up reported number optics since that would have had them ahead of XBO still), then that'd of been at least 21.8 million by end of March. Maybe 21.9 million.

23.9 million, even if representing shipped, would mean another 2 million between then and end of June, and probably at least a good portion of them just sitting around in channels. But, that would probably have already been happening months ago. I'd also suspect the new Series S is to rejuvenate sales of the lower-end model while maximizing their wafer production allocations (probably still on 7nm) and make up for slagging sales the past six-plus months. Because they can't realistically "only" increase Series X production volumes without incurring a lot of wasted money since so much of their wafer allocation would be going unused.

With that all said, your 23.2 million shipped is probably the more realistic estimate of the two. What the sold-through is? At this point I would have no idea, but it'd certainly be below 23 million.



They're too scared to do it.

His model isn't always accurate, but I do find Welfare's analysis interesting in the absence of NPD providing real numbers.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Stock dropped $6 yesterday (about -7%).

UPDATE 1-Sony shares slide after earnings highlight concern about games, sensors

Shares in Japan's Sony fell 6% in Tokyo trade after first-quarter profit tumbled, with the entertainment conglomerate reporting lacklustre performances by its movie and financial divisions. Operating profit slid 31% and comments by Sony executives over demand for its games and image sensors...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Looks like the price cut was due to missing PS5 sale expectations.

PS5 Misses Sales Target, But It's Still Up Big Compared To 2022

A recent earnings report showed a big drop for Sony's general revenue, but PS5 sales are still going strong, albeit below expectations.

www.gamespot.com

Sony's latest quarterly report included some bad news for the company, marked by a 31% drop in operating profit from April to June. Though PS5 sales fell below expectations, Sony still says that it expects the console to sell 25 million this financial year, which would be a record for the console. (Current sales for the console are more than 40 million).

Regarding the 3.3 million PS5s sold in the last quarter, Sony management said, "This amount is somewhat less than the expected progress toward our fiscal year sales target of 25 million units, but, due to promotions begun in July, we are seeing an improvement in the momentum of sales."

Sony added: "We have positioned the accelerated penetration of PS5 hardware as one of the highest priorities in this fiscal year, and we will try to work steadily to implement necessary measures to achieve our hardware sales target of 25 million units."

 

[onQ123]

No way Xbox One sold more than 50 millions !!??

Huh? yes it did

 

[Woopah]

Looking at the number, yeah, physical software is doomed

?
Digital sales were ~6.3x physical, compared to 5.2x same quarter last year.

Of course it is because it doesn't make sense for video games. Steam has already proven that, some people just needed to catch up along with internet infrastructure/access. Yes, there will be a small minority that likes collecting plastic.

One thing to remember is that those numbers are revenue.

So Sony will keep all that physical softwares revenue, whereas for the digital software revenue Sony will be sending a massive massive chunk of it to third parties.

 

[OuterLimits]

It’s the first true PS5 system seller, Ragnarok and Horizon were on PS4.

What a depressing reality compared to all previous generations.

 

[HTK]

One thing to remember is that those numbers are revenue.

So Sony will keep all that physical softwares revenue, whereas for the digital software revenue Sony will be sending a massive massive chunk of it to third parties.

You think they get 100% of revenue for physical games? That's simply not true, there is the production of disk, distributors (Walmart etc.), 3rd party, etc... They definitely get more from a digital sale than they do from physical, especially for the 1st party games.

 

[Woopah]

You think they get 100% of revenue for physical games? That's simply not true, there is the production of disk, distributors (Walmart etc.), 3rd party, etc... They definitely get more from a digital sale than they do from physical, especially for the 1st party games.

Their accounts only their cut for physical sales is included.

Basically, that physical revenue number has already had the retailers' and third parties' cut already removed. The digital revenue number has not had the third parties' cut removed yet.

I'm just pointing that out, not saying they make more from physical than digital.

 

[MrA]

Those numbers look good.

you bastard, I just spent the last 7 minutes watching that and now I have to go watch that.... Man that's a good movie....or maybe fistful instead, or maybe I'll make a deeper cut and watch sanjuro...Leone and Kurasawa were the 2 best directors of all time if you ask me.

Sales jumped 30% QoQ. At this pace, it’ll sell over 26M this FY.

that q4 isn't happening again, it was a burn-off of 2 years of underserved demand, ps5 will do great this year 20m+, but that q4 was an anomaly

 

[noobie]

Hardware Sales for Quarter 1 FY 23/24 are up 900k year over year, Quarter 2 is usually bigger than Quarter 1 so we should see a decent sized increase for Q2.

PS5 Versus PS4 and PS3

For the 1st quarter of the 3rd full FY (yellow) the 3.3 million the PS5 shipped is 200k down on PS4's 3.5 million and 2.2 million up on PS3's 1.1 million. After 11 quarters PS5 totals 41.7 million compared to 43.7 million for PS4 and 23.8 million for PS3. This means launch aligned the PS5 is 2 million down on PS4 and 17.9 million up on PS3.

thank you for the historical data.
I think Sony over supplied market in Q4 2022 and 3.3 is just to bring the inventory in right order. Q2-2023 probably will be bigger than 4 million.

 

[MrA]

thank you for the historical data.
I think Sony over supplied market in Q4 2022 and 3.3 is just to bring the inventory in right order. Q2-2023 probably will be bigger than 4 million.

Considering how hard sony is pushing with discounts 4 million q2 should be easy and I think 4.5 or 5 million is more likely
If sony pushes discounts hard q3 I think a 10 to 12 million q3 is possible but then q4 will be pretty typical at like 2.5 to 3 million even if sony keeps hitting with discounts (unless something weird happens like baldurs gate 3 becomes a cultural phenomenon or one of sonys gaas games is the next fortnite, then the skies the limit)

 

[mckmas8808]

Considering how hard sony is pushing with discounts 4 million q2 should be easy and I think 4.5 or 5 million is more likely
If sony pushes discounts hard q3 I think a 10 to 12 million q3 is possible but then q4 will be pretty typical at like 2.5 to 3 million even if sony keeps hitting with discounts (unless something weird happens like baldurs gate 3 becomes a cultural phenomenon or one of sonys gaas games is the next fortnite, then the skies the limit)

They NEED a minimum of 4.3 million in Q2 and 9.3 million in Q3 to be on track for 25 million. Some people seem to not understand that to get to their 25 million goal, they need to sale 31% more hardware this year over last year. Q1 they were up 38%.

 

[MrA]

They NEED a minimum of 4.3 million in Q2 and 9.3 million in Q3 to be on track for 25 million. Some people seem to not understand that to get to their 25 million goal, they need to sale 31% more hardware this year over last year. Q1 they were up 38%.

true, but they're not getting that q4 again if they can hold around that 38% growth with a normal q4 will put them around 22 million, which is excellent,
but the 38% growth isn't with the push they've been making with sales and discounts on accessories etc, , Maybe they can hit 25 million, but like I've said in the past I"m not super bullish on that, but of course I also don't subscribe to doom and gloom because they only achieved strong growth instead super strong growth. This is going to be one of sony's best years for PlayStation no matter what,