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[Killjoy-NL]

I think this is the reality that is dawning on people slowly but surely.

Every piece of actual sales data that we've received has been a bad result for Microsoft as it relates to XSX and Starfield.

Minimal impact on sales in the UK and Spain. Baldur's Gate has already jumped ahead in sales on Steam, despite having been released much earlier.

There is no way we're seeing any substantial shift in sales over time with the XS. The momentum on Starfield seems to have completely halted with the lower reviews on steam and metacritic.

We're going to see a very difficult fall and winter for Xbox and with FF7R2 in February, that's likely to continue.

At this point, there's no moving the needle, unless Microsoft comes out with a completely innovative game that changes gaming like a Fortnite, Roblox, or a Minecraft. The problem remains their PC day 1 strategy and their gamepass strategy.

Either those strategies will be abandoned or this very well might be the last Xbox console generation.

Most likely the bolded part.

There won't be a game that magically 'saves' Xbox. Not Forza, not Hellblade 2, Not Fable, not Everwild, not whatever is left.

Spencer already threw in the towel in that interview, sales reflect Xbox irrelevancy, GamePass isn't growing as fast and as big as some people expected, but people keep on ignoring the signs and keep having false hope.
it's just all talk no substance with Xbox, while they're heading towards a dead end.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Most likely the bolded part.

There won't be a game that magically 'saves' Xbox. Not Forza, not Hellblade 2, Not Fable, not Everwild, not whatever is left.

Spencer already threw in the towel in that interview, sales reflect Xbox irrelevancy, GamePass isn't growing as fast and as big as some people expected, but people keep on ignoring the signs and keep having false hope.
it's just all talk no substance with Xbox, while they're heading towards a dead end.

I mean, I think we know the lion's share of GamePass users are on X1 and XS rather than PC.

The cost of GamePass and the tether to these consumers may demand that Microsoft continues to create a box, but we'll see just how profitable GamePass actually is based on whether Microsoft continues to make Xboxes.

At the moment they're in a similar situation as the Sega Saturn and if the PS5 Pro comes out, Microsoft will be forced to either come out with their own pro console (held back by the Series S) or force the start of a new generation untethered to the Series S but tethered to the PS5... That's a REALLY difficult position to be in.

Ultimately, they'll likely ride out the generation with the XS, but without a Pro console and momentum already shifted away, the gap will only grow for the next generation as consumer's digital libraries grow and cement.

One of the most important games of the generation is going to be GTA6 and GTA Online... eventually Red Dead 3... Witcher 4... These are going to play the best on PS5 Pro...

Microsoft has no choice but to come out with a 3rd sku but they're probably a year behind, which actually might give them the most powerful system in the generation, but they'll have lost the mindshare battle by its release. If that sounds familiar, it's because the Xbox One X came out a full year after the PS4 Pro. If GTA6 comes out next year, it'll be a year too late for XS Pro in 2025 not to mention that it'll get less cross-gen support because of the XSS.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Most likely the bolded part.

There won't be a game that magically 'saves' Xbox. Not Forza, not Hellblade 2, Not Fable, not Everwild, not whatever is left.

Spencer already threw in the towel in that interview, sales reflect Xbox irrelevancy, GamePass isn't growing as fast and as big as some people expected, but people keep on ignoring the signs and keep having false hope.
it's just all talk no substance with Xbox, while they're heading towards a dead end.

I think we'll see a change in the strategy for Xbox. They can sustain releasing games on PC on Day 1 AND games on GamePass on Day 1.

Starfield will be evidence of that. They're killing their box and their B2P sales.

GamePass has no future without Xbox. You won't be able to afford the cost just through PC, Mobile, and Streaming.

Everyone thinks that GamePass is Microsoft's future and maybe it is, but it still needs to run through the console.

If Starfield was the game it was hyped up to be and it was available only on Xbox as B2P for the first 12 months, it would have sold units. After 12 months you can put it on GamePass and you can put it on PC.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

I mean, I think we know the lion's share of GamePass users are on X1 and XS rather than PC.

The cost of GamePass and the tether to these consumers may demand that Microsoft continues to create a box, but we'll see just how profitable GamePass actually is based on whether Microsoft continues to make Xboxes.

At the moment they're in a similar situation as the Sega Saturn and if the PS5 Pro comes out, Microsoft will be forced to either come out with their own pro console (held back by the Series S) or force the start of a new generation untethered to the Series S but tethered to the PS5... That's a REALLY difficult position to be in.

Ultimately, they'll likely ride out the generation with the XS, but without a Pro console and momentum already shifted away, the gap will only grow for the next generation as consumer's digital libraries grow and cement.

One of the most important games of the generation is going to be GTA6 and GTA Online... eventually Red Dead 3... Witcher 4... These are going to play the best on PS5 Pro...

Microsoft has no choice but to come out with a 3rd sku but they're probably a year behind, which actually might give them the most powerful system in the generation, but they'll have lost the mindshare battle by its release. If that sounds familiar, it's because the Xbox One X came out a full year after the PS4 Pro. If GTA6 comes out next year, it'll be a year too late for XS Pro in 2025 not to mention that it'll get less cross-gen support because of the XSS.

Tbh I highly doubt PS5 Pro is real. There is no reason for it.
PS4 Pro was needed for extra performance because that's what PSVR needed.

PS5 will sell regardless of a Series Pro and I'd argue that if MS would release a Pro console, but Sony would just focus on PS6 instead, Xbox would be in even more trouble than they are now.

The Xbox mindshare is long gone and won’t return. Playstation, as well as Nintendo, are too big.

The best they can do is damage control and if they really want to release another console, the best they can do is take the massive hit regarding marketshare/mindshare and ride out the gen with just the Series S and X.

 

[yazenov]

I mean, I think we know the lion's share of GamePass users are on X1 and XS rather than PC.

The growth of Gamepass subs on consoles has stalled due to the slow increase in console unit sales due to very low demand (worse than Xbox One).

Now the only means for Gamepass growth is PC since they don't have any other options available. However, I think there is limited potential growth in the PC market as well, as PC users tend to buy games on Steam.

The only viable option I see for MS is to go the third party and ditch the money sink that is Gamepass. Release their games on all platforms . No subscription services are nessesary. The Netflix-style clone of gaming is clearly a failed experiment that will die a terrible death.

 

[noise36]

You dont need to buy and xbox or even buy the xbox game to play xbox exclusives, why cant people understand this?

You could have three games, Switch, PlayStation and xbox exclusives, all rated the same, all costing the same, all with similar levels of popularity and xbox would sell less games and consoles every time because of game pass and day one on PC.

Its good for gamers , better access and lower prices, bad for console wars and sales threads.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

You dont need to buy and xbox or even buy the xbox game to play xbox exclusives, why cant people understand this?

You could have three games, Switch, PlayStation and xbox exclusives, all rated the same, all costing the same, all with similar levels of popularity amd xbox would sell less games and consoles every time because of game pass and day one on PC>

People understand it.

The bigger question is:
Why doesn't MS just become a 3rd party publisher?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The growth of Gamepass subs on consoles has stalled due to the slow increase in console unit sales due to very low demand (worse than Xbox One).

Now the only means for Gamepass growth is PC since they don't have any other options available. However, I think there is limited potential growth in the PC market as well, as PC users tend to buy games on Steam.

The only viable option I see for MS is to go the third party and ditch the money sink that is Gamepass. Release their games on all platforms . No subscription services are nessesary. The Netflix-style clone of gaming is clearly a failed experiment that will die a terrible death.

I think the problem with that is whether or not Microsoft wants to be in the 3rd party software business. Not sure they're a more profitable company as a 3rd party.

If we look at Sega, I'm not sure they're inflation adjusted making more money now than when they were a platform holder and now royalties are so much higher due to digital storefront sales.

I could just as easily see Microsoft selling Bethesda to an Apple or something if they decide to shutter GamePass. I guess we'll see what happens with the FTC and with the CMA. I think the Activision deal is far more likely to go through now and we'll see what Microsoft is able to do in terms of parlaying ABK's software as either a stronger platform holder or a 3rd party publisher.

Will also be interesting to see how Nintendo reacts to any void presented by Microsoft. Do they step back into the AAA arena? The market is going to get crowded now that Apple is definitely getting more involved.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Tbh I highly doubt PS5 Pro is real. There is no reason for it.
PS4 Pro was needed for extra performance because that's what PSVR needed.

PS5 will sell regardless of a Series Pro and I'd argue that if MS would release a Pro console, but Sony would just focus on PS6 instead, Xbox would be in even more trouble than they are now.

The Xbox mindshare is long gone and won’t return. Playstation, as well as Nintendo, are too big.

The best they can do is damage control and if they really want to release another console, the best they can do is take the massive hit regarding marketshare/mindshare and ride out the gen with just the Series S and X.

I think PSVR2 can still gain from PS5 Pro as well. We've yet to reach the pinnacle of VR and PS5 Pro could definitely take things to another level.

We have to currently choose between fidelity and performance. That suggests there is a need for a PS5 Pro. As the generation advances the gap between PC and console increases. I think a Pro console is merited to keep that gap closer.

I think it's a bet on the global economy and gamers being willing to drop more money on a console in order to better compete with PC. There is no 400 dollar PC that competes with consoles and similarly, if Sony can create a 600-800 dollar console that can't be competed with $ for $ with PC, hell even upwards of a grand, it'll have a market.

I don't think Microsoft is the one more likely to have the sole Pro console on the market.

If the XS maxes out at 30-35 million units for this generation and the PS5 hits somewhere between the PS4 and the PS2 (120-155 million)... it's absolutely over for the Xbox brand... Hell even in the 40 million range is not something you can survive.

 

[yazenov]

I think the problem with that is whether or not Microsoft wants to be in the 3rd party software business. Not sure they're a more profitable company as a 3rd party.

If we look at Sega, I'm not sure they're inflation adjusted making more money now than when they were a platform holder and now royalties are so much higher due to digital storefront sales.

I could just as easily see Microsoft selling Bethesda to an Apple or something if they decide to shutter GamePass. I guess we'll see what happens with the FTC and with the CMA. I think the Activision deal is far more likely to go through now and we'll see what Microsoft is able to do in terms of parlaying ABK's software as either a stronger platform holder or a 3rd party publisher.

Will also be interesting to see how Nintendo reacts to any void presented by Microsoft. Do they step back into the AAA arena? The market is going to get crowded now that Apple is definitely getting more involved.

Sure, a platform holder has its benefits such as royalties as you mentioned. However, it only applies when you sell a certain number of console unit sales to offset the cost of R&D, marketing, and distribution costs, offset by software sales and subscriber growth.

MS is having difficulty in selling hardware, which in turn leads to difficulties in selling software and subscriptions due to a limited pool of user bases.
Now add the fact that you're giving away 1st party games for cheap on the subscription services while taking a huge cut of unit sales. I'm sure they are losing a huge amount of money just to drive the subscription growth but is it sustainable for the foreseeable future? Not really, hence, the increase in subscription prices. No other platform holder can eat these costs with the MS as the exception.

In the long run, I think going third party is the best option for profitability.

 

[SmokedMeat]

All eyes on Xbox, while Nintendo dominates game sales.

 

[onQ123]

I know in my area of Indiana there are loads of PS5s in every store I go into and a few Series S but its hard to find a Series X, whats going on with their supply?

Something, something $200 subsided , something, something no one is buying software to make up for that loss.

 

[jm89]

All eyes on Xbox, while Nintendo dominates game sales.

They dominate the physical charts at least.

This is why we need a combination of physical+digital. It gives a better idea of where ps and xbox stand as they are more heavily skewed digitally.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

I think PSVR2 can still gain from PS5 Pro as well. We've yet to reach the pinnacle of VR and PS5 Pro could definitely take things to another level.

VR can always benefit from more powerful hardware.
But the issue last-gen was that PSVR struggled to reach the bare minimum due to PS4 hardware.

We have to currently choose between fidelity and performance. That suggests there is a need for a PS5 Pro.

It's just options, like on PC. This isn't really a sign for a need for a Pro.

As the generation advances the gap between PC and console increases. I think a Pro console is merited to keep that gap closer.

I think it's a bet on the global economy and gamers being willing to drop more money on a console in order to better compete with PC. There is no 400 dollar PC that competes with consoles and similarly, if Sony can create a 600-800 dollar console that can't be competed with $ for $ with PC, hell even upwards of a grand, it'll have a market.

I don't think Microsoft is the one more likely to have the sole Pro console on the market.

If the XS maxes out at 30-35 million units for this generation and the PS5 hits somewhere between the PS4 and the PS2 (120-155 million)... it's absolutely over for the Xbox brand... Hell even in the 40 million range is not something you can survive.

Xbox One sold 58M.
It's pretty realistic to assume Series will max out at ~40M or less.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

https://x.com/pierre485_/status/1702993596826189977?s=20

I'm surprised TLOU P1 sold that much. I bet Sony is very happy with the ROI on that one.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

VR can always benefit from more powerful hardware.
But the issue last-gen was that PSVR struggled to reach the bare minimum due to PS4 hardware.


It's just options, like on PC. This isn't really a sign for a need for a Pro.


Xbox One sold 58M.
It's pretty realistic to assume Series will max out at ~40M or less.

Exactly, PS5 Pro makes the PSVR2 a substantially more viable product in the long run. To get 120 fps with more flat resolution would be a great win.

Yeah, options are important on PC and they're important on a console too, but not having to choose is also important.

I think 40 million or less is entirely possible given the poor year 3 they're having. I don't expect a miraculous turn in years 4 and 5.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Exactly, PS5 Pro makes the PSVR2 a substantially more viable product in the long run. To get 120 fps with more flat resolution would be a great win.

Sure, but there is no need at all. PSVR2 performance is solid.

Yeah, options are important on PC and they're important on a console too, but not having to choose is also important.

But there won't be a situation where they take away the choice anymore. That's the way forward, no matter how powerful the hardware is. Just like PC, only for consoles they devs take more control.

 

[Bonfires Down]

The Xbox takes I see on this forum are something else.

 

[Vroadstar]

Underwhelming results for Starfield and the Xbox hardware.

The disappointing reviews results after the unrealistic expectations, and the mid word of mouth hurt the game sales and it's impact on hardware sales.

What is the next big MS game after Starfield? It's gonna be a long wait I guess.

 

[Bernoulli]

Underwhelming results for Starfield and the Xbox hardware.

The disappointing reviews results after the unrealistic expectations, and the mid word of mouth hurt the game sales and it's impact on hardware sales.

What is the next big MS game after Starfield? It's gonna be a long wait I guess.

Forza and COD

 

[Daneel Elijah]

The Xbox takes I see on this forum are something else.

Then please give us your opinion on Xbox position, and what we can hope for them in term of consoles sales and more generally their prospects in the next few years? I can understand that some bullshit have been said in this thread. But the fact is that if you try to compare this to the others consoles makers, even the biggest bullshit seems almost possible. Can you imagine the series S and X being 40 million or less by the end of the gen? Now imagine the same but for the PS5 or the next Switch. Do you see my point then? Xbox position is so weak IMHO that stuff that we know should be impossible are not so impossible when I think about it. And it seems that some other posters think the same. Curious to see what you are thinking about all of this.

 

[Bonfires Down]

Then please give us your opinion on Xbox position, and what we can hope for them in term of consoles sales and more generally their prospects in the next few years? I can understand that some bullshit have been said in this thread. But the fact is that if you try to compare this to the others consoles makers, even the biggest bullshit seems almost possible. Can you imagine the series S and X being 40 million or less by the end of the gen? Now imagine the same but for the PS5 or the next Switch. Do you see my point then? Xbox position is so weak IMHO that stuff that we know should be impossible are not so impossible when I think about it. And it seems that some other posters think the same. Curious to see what you are thinking about all of this.

Microsoft’s gaming revenue is up 100% over the last decade. They have some 25M Game Pass subs on console and a bunch more Gold subs and they grab 30% of everything sold there. There is no reason for them to stop producing consoles.

If Sony were to ever allow Game Pass on Playstation that might change the equation, but there are no signs of that happening.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

Microsoft’s gaming revenue is up 100% over the last decade. They have some 25M Game Pass subs on console and a bunch more Gold subs and they grab 30% of everything sold there. There is no reason for them to stop producing consoles.

If Sony were to ever allow Game Pass on Playstation that might change the equation, but there are no signs of that happening.

I absolutely agree. The problem is that we do not know how much profits they do get from all that revenue. And more importantly what are the profits that Microsoft want from the gaming market. For me being a profitable last place is worth it. But they seems to want Sony place and are working hard to take it, if the 70 billion takeover or Activision is any indication. As you have said, them having the PS ecosystem open to them would change the equation and make them go third party a lot more attractive. But it is the same on PC. Valve have a reputation that is so much better than Microsoft than they sell more Xbox games like Starfield on Steam than in their own webstore. Or at least I think so.

This is why I have said that even the impossible can become possible when we talk about Xbox. Sony would loose a very dominant position in the console space, and is not really ready to be a third party, with games like TLOU remaster being a bad port on PC at launch. Nintendo is even more dominant in certain ways. And both really depends on the gaming market. Microsoft does not. So Xbox could more easily go third party if they wanted to. And being third party with access to the Sony and Nintendo ecosystems could allow them to have better revenue than they have right now, if we are liberal in our analysis. And this should be impossible. But their position is in a weird condition where we can see that their hardware sales are weakening and their concurrents are being in a really good shape. Would I talk about it like it will happen in the next few years? No. But with a few if( the consoles sales get the same or worse, no great hit from xbox in the next few quarters, etc) the situation could be concevable. And this is already crazy.

 

[DrFigs]

Meanwhile, Xbox media:

These guys seem like good people, but yeah they are crazy out of touch

 

[Heisenberg007]

These guys seem like good people, but yeah they are crazy out of touch

Yeah, they are okay. Like at least they are not batshit crazy fanboys. But some of their takes are absurd.

 

[Bonfires Down]

I absolutely agree. The problem is that we do not know how much profits they do get from all that revenue. And more importantly what are the profits that Microsoft want from the gaming market. For me being a profitable last place is worth it. But they seems to want Sony place and are working hard to take it, if the 70 billion takeover or Activision is any indication. As you have said, them having the PS ecosystem open to them would change the equation and make them go third party a lot more attractive. But it is the same on PC. Valve have a reputation that is so much better than Microsoft than they sell more Xbox games like Starfield on Steam than in their own webstore. Or at least I think so.

This is why I have said that even the impossible can become possible when we talk about Xbox. Sony would loose a very dominant position in the console space, and is not really ready to be a third party, with games like TLOU remaster being a bad port on PC at launch. Nintendo is even more dominant in certain ways. And both really depends on the gaming market. Microsoft does not. So Xbox could more easily go third party if they wanted to. And being third party with access to the Sony and Nintendo ecosystems could allow them to have better revenue than they have right now, if we are liberal in our analysis. And this should be impossible. But their position is in a weird condition where we can see that their hardware sales are weakening and their concurrents are being in a really good shape. Would I talk about it like it will happen in the next few years? No. But with a few if( the consoles sales get the same or worse, no great hit from xbox in the next few quarters, etc) the situation could be concevable. And this is already crazy.

The issue is, if they don’t have games that are attractive to gamers, as has mostly been the case so far, then those games won’t sell much on Playstation either. And if they do start making hit games then those games will be better used to attract people to Xbox consoles instead.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

The issue is, if they don’t have games that are attractive to gamers, as has mostly been the case so far, then those games won’t sell much on Playstation either. And if they do start making hit games then those games will be better used to attract people to Xbox consoles instead.

I could be saying that in this market even games like Starfield would sell a lot more if they were on PS5, or that games like Rare Sea of thieves are GAAS games that needs a huge install base and so would gain a lot more by being on PS5 too, but yes I agree with what you are saying. They gain more by putting good exclusives on Xbox than making all their games third party. But the fact is that our estimation would not the same for games like Starfield VS games like GOW Ragnarok or Spiderman 2 or Zelda TOTK. There is such a huge loss in Starfield case that it had been taken into account by Microsoft. But we simply do not think about it for games like TOTK. This is the difference for me. I understand that from most account Xbox is far from the point where being a console maker is bad for them. But we are not seing them getting better in some of the key metrics that have always been synonym to success, like consoles sales. I hope that their plan to make a Gamepass AAA game each quarter works for them. Because if it does not it will get only worse from here as Phil refuse to pay for exclusives like Xbox was doing in the 360/ early Xbox one era.

 

[jm89]

Meanwhile, Xbox media:

These guys are on heavy copium.

While starfield isn't a disaster in no way, the numbers being reported are nowhere near crazy. Especially those numbers that add in gamepass user count and whatever else.

Matty is still making videos whining about the reviews. Let it go bruh.

 

[Brigandier]

Have you checked UK lately? It’s Sony’s land this gen.

It has been Sony land since around the PS3 refresh and Uncharted 2 released there was a real shift around that time and it's just progressed since.

But PS4 curbstomped Xbox one badly.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

2023	Switch	PS5	Xbox Series	Cumulative
Week 1	28000	4000	2000	34000
Week 2	5500	2000	500	8000
Week 3	4250	8900	550	13700
Week 4	3650	11100	850	15600
Week 5	4000	8000	800	12800
Week 6	4000	9000	1000	14000
Week 7	4000	8000	1500	13500
Week 8	3000	7500	1000	11500
Week 9	3950	12000	1450	17400
Week 10	3700	10000	900	14600
Week 11	3500	7500	500	11500
Week 12	2900	6000	550	9450
Week 13	4000	7000	1000	12000
Week 14	4000	7500	700	12200
Week 15	4500	7000	500	12000
Week 16	5000	6000	500	11500
Week 17	13500	6000	500	20000
Week 18	9000	5500	500	15000
Week 19	11000	5000	450	16450
Week 20	8000	4000	400	12400
Week 21	6700	4500	400	11600
Week 22	5700	7500	600	13800
Week 23	5000	5800	800	11600
Week 24	4000	5200	1800	11000
Week 25	4000	6300	1600	11900
Week 26	6000	12800	1300	20100
Week 27	5000	16000	600	21600
Week 28	4500	16500	1200	22200
Week 29	4000	4000	900	8900
Week 30	4000	4000	800	8800
Week 31	4500	4200	800	9500
Week 32	3600	3900	650	8150
Week 33	2800	3400	650	6850
Week 34	2500	7500	600	10600
Week 35	3000	12500	1500	17000
Week 36	3300	12500	1200	17000
Cumulative	198050	268600	31550	498200

 

[Killjoy-NL]

2023	Switch	PS5	Xbox Series	Cumulative
Week 1	28000	4000	2000	34000
Week 2	5500	2000	500	8000
Week 3	4250	8900	550	13700
Week 4	3650	11100	850	15600
Week 5	4000	8000	800	12800
Week 6	4000	9000	1000	14000
Week 7	4000	8000	1500	13500
Week 8	3000	7500	1000	11500
Week 9	3950	12000	1450	17400
Week 10	3700	10000	900	14600
Week 11	3500	7500	500	11500
Week 12	2900	6000	550	9450
Week 13	4000	7000	1000	12000
Week 14	4000	7500	700	12200
Week 15	4500	7000	500	12000
Week 16	5000	6000	500	11500
Week 17	13500	6000	500	20000
Week 18	9000	5500	500	15000
Week 19	11000	5000	450	16450
Week 20	8000	4000	400	12400
Week 21	6700	4500	400	11600
Week 22	5700	7500	600	13800
Week 23	5000	5800	800	11600
Week 24	4000	5200	1800	11000
Week 25	4000	6300	1600	11900
Week 26	6000	12800	1300	20100
Week 27	5000	16000	600	21600
Week 28	4500	16500	1200	22200
Week 29	4000	4000	900	8900
Week 30	4000	4000	800	8800
Week 31	4500	4200	800	9500
Week 32	3600	3900	650	8150
Week 33	2800	3400	650	6850
Week 34	2500	7500	600	10600
Week 35	3000	12500	1500	17000
Week 36	3300	12500	1200	17000
Cumulative	198050	268600	31550	498200

Stress levels...