I saw an estimate of the combined number of handheld PCs ALL TOGETHER was in the neighborhood of 6 million. Nintendo will have that eclipsed on the opening month.
I mean sure. But you have to consider that even the Xbox One managed to sell evenly with PS4 early on. Hardcore people are the ones to buy day 1.
There are levels between Wii U failure, Gamecube failure and N64 "failure". People want to assume that this machine is gonna be either a complete bang or a complete bust.
My personal opinion though, is that Nintendo has mispositioned this device in the market.
The base console pricing is > PS5 Digital and Xbox Series S (compared to Switch 1, which undercut both of them), and it doesn't feel like it has either the wild creativity or specs to be "worth the money".
This will make it a harder sell to parents particularly, why pay so much money on this for Mario Kart World when Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has a ton of content and can be replayed endlessly? It's gonna be the "why buy PS5 when PS4 works fine?" question all over again, but worse.