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Wkd BO 06•23-25•17 - Transformers snore than meets the eye, Woman keeps up with Cars

K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
Only think I'd be concerned about is international appeal. Is he a well known character that will drive Europe and Asia to go?
Click to expand...

I don't think that matters much anymore. But Spider-Man is still tough to beat overseas. I think that Homecoming will be ahead worldwide, even if Black Panther gets a Deadpool gross.


Transformers 5 is at $167M after a week in China. It is expected to drop around 75% this weekend, putting it just under $200M total.

I haven't talked about it in awhile, but Dangal is still playing in China, and is now past $190M there.

Wonder Woman finished at around $90M. The Mummy will end a tad above that. Alien: Covenant will finish around $45M.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
Weren't experts talking floor of $300M and ceiling of $400M there?
Click to expand...

Yes, but China doesn't care about analyst projections. See Dangal making $190M when it was expected to make $10-20M. The Chinese market is super volatile right now. Presales patterns that worked last year don't work this year. Opening weekend multipliers are rapidly changing as well.
 
K

kswiston

Member
I wouldn't be all that surprised if War for the Planet of the Apes ends up being this year's Star Trek Beyond. Reviews are great, but It felt like we had way more hype going into Dawn.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
Yes, but China doesn't care about analyst projections. See Dangal making $190M when it was expected to make $10-20M. The Chinese market is super volatile right now. Presales patterns that worked last year don't work this year. Opening weekend multipliers are rapidly changing as well.
Click to expand...

I know you've posted the breakout of what studios make from X region so many times, but I'm forgetting the why (studios make so little in China)
 
G

Glass Rebel

Member
War is gonna get rekt by Spidey and Dunkirk and WB will remove Reeves from Batman in favour of someone with more experience with the character:

MV5BMTk2OTc1ODgzNV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwNjMxMTY1._V1_UY317_CR0,0,214,317_AL_.jpg
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
kswiston said:
I wouldn't be all that surprised if War for the Planet of the Apes ends up being this year's Star Trek Beyond. Reviews are great, but It felt like we had way more hype going into Dawn.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I also think some people are overrating how much audiences liked Dawn overall; it made a good amount of money, but its legs were merely decent for the release date.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
I know you've posted the breakout of what studios make from X region so many times, but I'm forgetting the why (studios make so little in China)
Click to expand...

Because the Chinese government controls media in the country, and that is what they decided. The MPAA lobbies hard for better rates every time the policy is revised as part of trade negotiation, but there's not that much they can do outside of refusing to release their stuff in China. The rate was previously 22% (5 years ago?). The MPAA naturally wants it raised again in the next year or two. Chinese companies are heavily investing in foreign film studios/distributors, so it may happen.

I think that the ultimate goal of the government is to make China an international power in the worldwide film industry, but few countries actually want to watch China's local films. As such, we will probably get a number of Great Walls as they try and figure out a fusion that works.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
Because the Chinese government controls media in the country, and that is what they decided. The MPAA lobbies hard for better rates every time the policy is revised as part of trade negotiation, but there's not that much they can do outside of refusing to release their stuff in China. The rate was previously 22% (5 years ago?). The MPAA naturally wants it raised again in the next year or two. Chinese companies are heavily investing in foreign film studios/distributors, so it may happen.

I think that the ultimate goal of the government is to make China an international power in the worldwide film industry, but few countries actually want to watch China's local films. As such, we will probably get a number of Great Walls as they try and figure out a fusion that works.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Very helpful.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
In the theater for Baby Driver waiting for it to start. I am one of 6 people and think the next youngest person in here is 20 years older than me.

I cursed Nice Guys by seeing a mostly empty matinee. Let's see if I curse or bless this.
 
B

broncobuster

Banned
I can see Black Panther being another Wonder Woman with a near 50/50 split domestic and foreign, if not a greater divide favoring domestic.

It'd be funny if it does out-do Spider-Man, seeing how it got bumped back for it.
 
S

Sgt. Kabukiman

Banned
Obliterator said:
Yeah I think BP could be HUGE domestically. I do worry a bit about its overseas appeal though but regardless it will do very well
Click to expand...

I see a lot of people on GAF being worried about its chances overseas. It will do fine, in line with other Marvel debuts and maybe even slightly better. Civil War was very popular, so Doctor Strange numbers outside of the US are the floor imo.
 
R

R-User!

Member
BronsonLee said:
I hate bikes now
Click to expand...

Stealth Bike accident experience sharing thread now:

I was hit as a kid, and got a new bike out of it. I still like bikes, but I drive towards traffic now, and off the street as much as possible to stay away from all of the random street crap that can happen.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Sgt. Kabukiman said:
I see a lot of people on GAF being worried about its chances overseas. It will do fine, in line with other Marvel debuts and maybe even slightly better. Civil War was very popular, so Doctor Strange numbers outside of the US are the floor imo.
Click to expand...

We'll see, I think it will do well overseas overall but I think the split is going to look like Wonder Woman in regards to domestic / international
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
I finally watched the first two Apes movies this week and they really are great.

The thing that really blows my mind is the writers. None of them really have any great screenwriting work outside of this franchise, but when put together here they kill it.

Biggest writing credits for the three writers outside of Apes:

Amanda Silver (credited on Rise, Dawn, War): Jurassic World

Mark Bomback (credited on Dawn, War): Live Free or Die Hard, Race to Witch Mountain, Total Recall (2012), The Wolverine (2013)

Rick Jaffa (credited on Rise, Dawn, War): Jurassic World, In the Heart of the Sea

Makes me want to know what their contributions were to those other movies since the Apes movies are so much better than anything else they've done.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Oh shit I had almost forgotten there was a Burton remake.

Not even exaggerating. I'd almost completely forgotten that had even happened.

Of course, now there are memories. Tim Roth as a really pissed off ape. Michael Clarke Duncan barking BOW YOUR HEAD.

Otho was the big orange one, right? Or was that Giamatti?

Oh yeah, and the collection of dudes online volunteering to anyone within earshot, for reasons known only to themselves, that they wanted to fuck the Marla Singer ape.
 
P

PanSexual_Peacock

Member
Schlorgan said:
I finally watched the first two Apes movies this week and they really are great.

The thing that really blows my mind is the writers. None of them really have any great screenwriting work outside of this franchise, but when put together here they kill it.

Biggest writing credits for the three writers outside of Apes:

Amanda Silver (credited on Rise, Dawn, War): Jurassic World

Mark Bomback (credited on Dawn, War): Live Free or Die Hard, Race to Witch Mountain, Total Recall (2012), The Wolverine (2013)

Rick Jaffa (credited on Rise, Dawn, War): Jurassic World, In the Heart of the Sea

Makes me want to know what their contributions were to those other movies since the Apes movies are so much better than anything else they've done.
Click to expand...
Good directors can elevate mediocre scripts.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Marvel Studios has 10 straight films over $500M worldwide now. I am pretty sure that this is a record consecutive number for a studio/franchise. Harry Potter is at 9. Pixar was up to 8 before The Good Dinosaur came around. Star Wars is at 8 if you cheat.

Anyone want to make a prediction on when Marvel will see a combo breaker? Do they make it through the rest of their announced slate?

Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony 7/7/17
Thor: Ragnarok BV 11/3/17
Black Panther BV 2/16/18
Avengers: Infinity War BV 5/4/18
Ant-Man and the Wasp BV 7/6/18
Captain Marvel BV 3/8/19
Untitled Avengers BV 5/3/19
Spider-Man: Homecoming 2 Sony 7/5/19
 
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