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Wkd BO 804-0617 - Man in Black kidnaps #1, Dun' not done son, Woman nears $400m DOM
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
It's a damn shame War dropped so much from Dawn. It's a really good movie but just a terrible release date and mis-marketed.
2017 is going to have the least $1B films in how many years?
Albino_Yeti
Member
Damn man. Poor Planet of the Apes. They made a great movie, but it was certainly not your standard action movie blockbuster.
Really should not have called it 'War'.
Really should not have called it 'War'.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
If the Emoji Movie can make it's money back you have no excuse to not chase your dreams.
I believe since 2014.
It depends on China, but I think it will get there. Just the remaining domestic take will get Homecoming to around $700M. Add in overseas holdovers, plus China and Japan.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't know that Blade Runner will hit $60mil opening weekend, but it's a fucking guarantee it'll make more in its opening weekend (maybe even just Fri-Sat) than the original did for its entire run.
Fancyarcher
Member
Meh weekend it seems. Dark Tower was #1, but if it wasn't for the low-budget it would basically be a dud, at least Dunkirk had a great drop though.
I wish. It seems too niche right now sadly.
I wish. It seems too niche right now sadly.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
You don't want to join us when It makes bank and Bill Skarsgard is up for an Oscar?
Including re-issue and final cut?
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
Dat Atomic Bomba!
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/seasonal/
Summer's basically over, I think we can say it sucked at the box office this year.
Summer's basically over, I think we can say it sucked at the box office this year.
Wow yeah worst summer in 17 years.
Maybe not. 2 films are over $1B currently. The Last Jedi is locked to hit that number.
Despicable Me 3 is going to get really close. I think it will have to settle for a gross around where DM2 landed, but $1B isn't completely dead yet.
I know that people like to laugh at Justice League, but I think it has an outside shot at $1B+. We'll see where its public reception ends up.
Hell, if Wolf Warrior 2 doesn't slow down, it could end up breaking $1B. It would have to fare better than most Chinese movies overseas to hit that mark though. Say 10% foreign gross instead of 1-2%.
Even if 2017 has to settle for just 3 films over the $1B mark, at least all of those films will be well over $1B. Three of the four in 2016 squeaked by that milestone.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Wow, not only the box office gross dropped, even the amount of movies are down quite a bit.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Yup. It'll clear $35mil OW, I'm pretty sure.
It's not a huge brand, but Blade Runner has become very recognized/recognizable in the last 30 years. WB is gonna push it like an important prestige picture while also positioning it as some sort of action flick (which was part of why the original got backlash back in 82 - they thought they were getting a different kind of Harrison Ford flick).
But considering they just successfully executed that approach with Nolan's Dunkirk (and the production is moving the music team from that film over to Blade Runner, too), I think a box-office around 40-50 OW is pretty feasible.
If they really put the hammer down on the marketing in the weeks before its release, they could possibly get up to $60mil.
But then you're looking at another situation where audiences are asked to watch one kind of movie and sit down for 2 hours of Denis Villeneuve doing whatever the fuck he wants in the Blade Runner sandbox.
Then again - people generally liked Arrival. So who knows!
Youuuuu
You have to click on calendar grosses at box office mojo, or it just gives you the total for every film released during the summer window, even if some of those made all of their money in September.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/seasonal/?view=calendargross&p=.htm
2017 still looks bad, but there's a full month left before summer is done.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Arrival opened to around 24 million so the marketing didn't really do its job in getting the movie to open higher. I have no idea how people are seeing Blade Runner achieving $60m since there is next to no chance it can get close to that number. Even a series like Mission Impossible which has a solid fanbase didn't open to $60 million and the action elements of Blade Runner, atleast from the trailer, are hardly exciting. It tries to sell the movie through its visuals which are gorgeous but so was Ghost in the Shell and we all know how it turned out.
IMO, Blade Runner should open somewhere between 20 to 30 million but the rest of its box office depends on word of mouth. It can pass $100 million at the end of the day but I don't think it has a shot at $150 million.
IMO, Blade Runner should open somewhere between 20 to 30 million but the rest of its box office depends on word of mouth. It can pass $100 million at the end of the day but I don't think it has a shot at $150 million.
Spidey hasn't opened in China yet right?
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
The first 20 minutes are a mess, but honestly, after that it's a pretty good film. Some smarter editing choices early and a few braver story telling choices would have done a lot to improve how it sits with critics, IMO. It's not a terrible movie. Elba is fantastic.
Edit: Baby Driver is at $155m WW, will hit $100m DOM, on a $34m budget. Pretty big hit, Wright has gotta feel great about it.
Gosling bump, mi amigo
Japan and China are still due
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Arrival is a very different movie than Blade Runner (and is being sold differently), and reaction to Arrival was very positive after-the-fact. It didnt' open strong, but I'm arguing that Arrival's final reception might lay the groundwork for larger reciepts this time out when Villeneuve's name is paired with a recognizable "brand" like Blade Runner, such as it is. I don't know why, of all the comparison points, you picked Mission Impossible, either.
I think calling 2049 to open between 20-30mil OW is pretty lowball.
You mean Bronson bump.
DarkLordMalik
Member
The Nice Guys
I only used Mission Impossible as an example to talk about a movie being sold based on its action. You said in your post that Warner Bros. might try to push it as an action flick, I simply said that even if we talk about one of the most popular action franchise, it hasn't had a domestic opening of $60 million.
I just think a Science Fiction Noir film is a hard sell and Blade Runner is being released so many years after the original that I doubt nostalgia will drive any box office gross. The name isn't relevant as say Star Wars. It is a pretty niche movie that reached critical acclaim but it is still a niche and I just don't see it suddenly making it big at box office.
Mad Max Fury Road exploded at the box office because it was an adrenaline filled ride from start to end with a very well liked cast of characters. I am listing this as an example to talk about a franchise which was relevant in the past and then brought back to critical and commercial success. Unless there is something in Blade Runner 2049 aside from Villeneuve, I don't think it is guaranteed to achieve success.
Hotman Bodyguard and Deadpool 2 are locked and loaded. He is grinding
Wow, that list is pretty crazy.
The 3 great superhero movies at the top holding it down, followed by a bunch of SHIT with dunkirk and apes sprinkled in there as well.
Dunkirk might reach #5 by the end of its run.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Thanks. So it is locked for over $800M it seems.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Ryan Gosling bump is fake. The dude has yet to make a movie open to $20 million in domestic box office.
Boombloxer
Member
Prisoners and Sicario sold me on his work basically forever. Arrival was good, and I have hope for BR.
After we had that 73% second Friday drop doom and gloom thread for Homecoming, I started tracking opening weekend multipliers for all recent comic films through their second and third weekends of release (10 and 17 days of release). I skipped last week, but figured that it would be worth checking in to see how Spider-man compares to its contemporaries after weekend #5.
Actual 5th weekend drops are all over the place as some films hit holiday weekends while others are seeing post-holiday dips. However, I think that the OW multiplier column gives an impression of what is typical. Wonder Woman's legs mop the floor with everything, but Spider-Man remains on the high end of the opening weekend multiplier scale. I think that it will eventually end above Doctor Strange as well. Disney packed things in pretty quickly for Strange by late December.
Code:
TITLE 5th Weekend Drop 31-day OW Multiplier
Deadpool 35% 2.48x
Batman v Superman 39% 1.92x
Civil War 49%^ 2.17x
X-Men Apocalypse 53% 2.30x
Suicide Squad 19%* 2.22x
Doctor Strange 51%^ 2.53x
Logan 41% 2.40x
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 53%^ 2.43x
Wonder Woman 37% 3.35x
Spider-Man Homecoming 34% 2.52x
^weekend after a holiday
*Holiday weekendActual 5th weekend drops are all over the place as some films hit holiday weekends while others are seeing post-holiday dips. However, I think that the OW multiplier column gives an impression of what is typical. Wonder Woman's legs mop the floor with everything, but Spider-Man remains on the high end of the opening weekend multiplier scale. I think that it will eventually end above Doctor Strange as well. Disney packed things in pretty quickly for Strange by late December.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't think it's guaranteed anything other than 35mil OW. That's not necessarily a huge success. But I think north of 35 is a safe call.
Corpsepyre
Banned
I guess some films are just critic-proof, made for and marketed towards a particular section of the audience that doesn't care for a score stamped infront of it. Emoji falls in that category. Suicide Squad was another.
Sucks for Apes. I quite liked it, but it was obvious it wouldn't make a whole lot as it's not a conventional blockbuster by any means.
Sucks for Apes. I quite liked it, but it was obvious it wouldn't make a whole lot as it's not a conventional blockbuster by any means.
AngmarsKing701
Member
thumbsup.jpg
2014 was just Transformers I think.
Star Wars is looking like the only other $1 billion film this year unless Justice League pulls off a miracle.
DarkLordMalik
Member
I mean if it doesn't even open to $35 million, then it should be a bad sign for Warner Bros. It seems rather expensive and I think the budget is around $150 million.
I am still sticking with my expectations of between $20 to $30 million.