Academic studies in recent decades have generally failed to find any conclusive evidence to support studio bosses' faith in stars' pulling power. Our own analysis suggests only that a few of them do add a bit to box-office receipts. Number-crunchers at Epagogix, a company in London, use an algorithm to project box-office takings of films based on their story elements—including the use of special effects, a surprise ending or a cool location. And they reckon that as long as the stars look good and can act, they make scant difference, with at best a very few exceptions. It helps to have a damsel in distress, but it does not really matter which damsel.
Among the few stars who do, by common consent among studio bosses, producers and agents, seem to be guarantors of success are the biggest comedy actors—names such as Kevin Hart and Melissa McCarthy. This is in part because they signal to the audience precisely what kind of entertainment is on offer, and are good at delivering. Our analysis backs this, with a bunch of leading comedy actors strongly outperforming industry averages. But the trajectories of star careers leave a lot of room for guesswork. Bruce Willis was paid $5m to make ”Die Hard" in 1988; some in Hollywood were aghast, but the movie was a huge hit. Then Mr Willis made more flops than hits (excepting the ”Die Hard" sequels) before hitting it big again with ”The Sixth Sense". But this time, was it the star or the story?